[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

12z GFS is what you call 'battleground'! Block refusing to give way, but we aRe fractionally in a SWerly feed by next weekend, ridiculous inaction!

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

When the 06z does finally move it succeeds in bringing Atlantic sleet above a couple hundred metres to Donegal and western Ireland and maybe a flake or two for elevated Ulstermen. What a dreary and depressing set of runs. and no sign of any stratospheric warming, sudden or otherwise on display. 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Oh my word the 00z and 06z GFS bring new levels of awfulness to the medium term for cold lovers. Long and screaming SWerlies running up one of those horrible 'escalator' high pressure systems. And there is no cold of note pooling to make any change to the pattern worthwhile from that cold perspective. Hard to find anything enjoyable for anyone who isn't a fan of windy winter weather.

having said that of course, it will be immense fun on the hills and mountains of Scotland, where such conditions bring white gold to theadventurous.

[SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 12/1/2017 11z ---->]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

With the strength of the wind just now, 'rapid thaw' would not be an inappropriate description?

For the next couple of hours yep, then anything left is going to become problematic, especially if we get a dusting on top. It's very slippery round norwich rn.

[SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 12/1/2017 11z ---->]

Just now, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

 

Yes, slushy here in Mulbarton as well.  Pity I've got a nasty cold so am staying indoors.

Unfortunately I think it's going to get 'tasty' in time for rush hour....... really need the slush to clear before colder air turns everything into a rough skating rink. 

[SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 12/1/2017 11z ---->]

1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Thanks Snowmaiden.  Good to see you posting again.

Been a few years! Horrible sleety mess in central Norwich, rooftops still white though

[SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 12/1/2017 11z ---->]

For those of us in the East, there's a finger of slightly less cold air passing over at the moment which is putting precipitation the wrong side of marginal. It should have cleared through by 3, and any showers later should be once again of snow through till early hours Sunday when we get milder air for a couple of days, but dry.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

And here comes the Atlantic by t300, although the cold air is stubborn by then. Very interesting run with bags of things to watch for.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

By 264 it's turned into a cold toppler, would be a very snowy few days and exciting. Pattern developing appears to be snow till Sunday (not everywhere!), building to a coldish easterly but dry with a reload from the N later. Exciting times.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Yep the 6z brings snow showers to the e and s coast by Thursday/Friday next week

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

By weds it's knife edge for Kent and parts of EA for wintery goodness on the 6z. We are dealing in fractions here!

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Well looking at the GFS 0z, it's a fractional miss on a snowy easterly for the east and se, cold uppers retained from Tuesday onwards. A nudge is all it would take for some to get in on the action of the Franco Spanish alliance. It's an easterly but it's a dry one as it stands. Dry and cold in the se per meto update. Time to look norwest to Greenland and hope things stay conducive. So close.......

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Saturday looks an interesting day for the east coast counties of England. Slightly moving things eastward though, fractional difference. Shortwaves might pose some issues here.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Gfs 12z and it's going to be bitterly cold tonight and tomorrow down the east coast with a howling northerly wind out to t30

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

An interesting diversion will be to see if, as we enter the next few runs, we start to see any North Sea convection streamers developing given the general agreement on the direction of weather. It moves from forecasting the general to looking out for specifics from t72-96 inwards.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Annnnnnnnd with an easterly so shall I return to the forum!

all my beautiful posts have gone! Eeeeeek, but never mind!! I've been following the winter solely on the Meto updates (since 2011!), but got the impression something was afoot from their almost unprecedented forecasts of quite cold. Surprised by the current output is an understatement, thrilled is not an understatement, being in the front line for easterly action as I am here in a chilly Norwich. Looking through the models and if I can remember how to read them (!) looks like the main danger will be shortwave activity over the top and possible sinking of the coldest weather into Europe, but this does not look favourite on the 00 suite and the 06. Very little, actually zero, danger of a Scandiberian (TM snowmaiden 2009) locking us out on the mild side. Hope you are all in good spirits, I see a lot of you haven't gone anywhere in the last 5 years! Good