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Model Output Discussion - Into February
Convergence replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hi John, what would that suggest for surface conditions, would that suggest a high surface pressure in that area or do these charts not work that way? -
Take care on the roads in the morning, I was on the road just after midnight and there was no sign of any gritting having taken place. There were large areas of black ice wherever there was water across the road. The traffic on the A22 had spread the water well past the flooded bits and it was proper nasty black ice. Even on winter tyres there was virtually no grip whatsoever. This was in the Uckfield area, East Sussex.
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Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
Convergence replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Although the focus for most of us is the hunt for cold snow and blizzards, today looks like it might well deliver some even more unusual winter weather for rather a lot of us. Right now we've got a band of rain/sleet/snow piling in from the SW and falling onto surfaces which have been in the freezer for about a week. Combined with high winds further North this may prove quite disruptive for large parts of the country as shown by today's Met Office warnings. Take care out there today, it may be very transient and short-lived but it could well be unussually icy today, especially on the roads. -
Interesting shopping trip to Eastbourne wit hsome interesting micro climate effects. Raining when we left Eastbourne Asda and +1 degree About 2 miles inland heading North, still raining, very light Southerly wind. Temp 0 degrees 10 miles inland heading West towards Halland in busy traffic, still cloudy, nill wind but dry, -1 degree. The moment we turned South off the main road and onto our quiet country lane the temperature dropped back to -4 I suspect we're now in a slightly milder airmass here with a cold pool underneath up to maybe as little as tree top height. Where there's lots of traffic on the main road, the really cold air at ground level is being mixed out with the slightly milder air above. Where I live, 10 miles inland, still on the flat and same altitude as the main road, but with no wind or mixing, it's still bitterly cold. Would be interesting to know what the temperature currently is higher up locally, such as in Heathfield or Hadlow Down? I'm between Ringmer and Uckfield.
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Storm Eunice - 18th February
Convergence replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
That's a great graphic. I live slap in the middle of the "32" on that map and can assure you it really was a big deal. It didn't seem that bad indoors and just looking out the window, lots of noise and trees moving around but nothing particularly dramatic. However, right at the peak of the storm I ended up having to take an elderly relative to hospital. Having lived and worked in various mountain regions and driven through blizzards and storms galore, driving 36 miles through the peak of Eunice was easily the scariest drive of my life. Debris everywhere, lots of it hitting the car including the windscreen. Trees, large branches and power lines falling all around at times and having to swerve and slalom around everything from Estate Agent "For Sale" signs, fence panels, corrugated roof panels, branches, wheelie bins and even people. One poor woman staggering along the pavement got literally blown off the pavement and right into the middle of the road. She was young and agile, knew we were coming but literally couldn't fight the gust and much to her horror ended up right in our path. We were going slowly and managed to stop just in time but it was a very dodgy moment. The journey took much longer than expected as we had to make so many detours due to roads blocked by fallen trees and power lines. It was a hell of an experience but very scary and not something I have any desire to repeat. -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Convergence replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
They might be awake but 2 hours after it was issued the BBC still haven't mentioned it. Been watching for nearly an hour now and still no mention and the pre recorded forecast is out of date and doesn't mention it. -
Storm Eunice - 18th February
Convergence replied to Thunder and Lightning's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Nearly two hours after the Met Office issued a Red Warning for the South East, the BBC News on iPlayer is still showing an earlier pre-recorded weather forecast without the SE Red Warning. I'm quite shocked! -
Here's an image from a minute ago to put today in a bit of perspective . How often do we see a radar image of the UK that's entirely pink - no sleet, no rain, just snow from North to South. There was bit of rain down to the SW near Brest but I've decided it's French and so nothing to do with us. Looking forward to seeing what tomorrow morning brings
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South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards
Convergence replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Very light snow here between Halland and Ringmer. Hopefully something visible come morning. -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards
Convergence replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Even my chickens might manage to take off in this! -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards
Convergence replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Very gusty here, xcweather's showing an inland gust of 51mph at Little Rissington atm. That's one of the strongest low level inland gusts I've seen all winter. Certainly noisiest storm of the winter here. -
Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!
Convergence replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Understand, my point was more that we're finally seeing some tentative but inconsistent nuggets of improvement in the output. As for SLP over Greenland I'd not usually take much note of something like a 1040 in that locale however 1060 or above I wouldn't automatically discard as purely topographic. -
Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!
Convergence replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS 006 gets interesting from 216 onwards. Watch the pressure rise rapidly over Greenland from 1016 @216 to 1060 @ 252hrs. Edit: 1st image is 252, last is 216, wasn't expecting it to load in that order -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards
Convergence replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
There are some serious gusts and squalls around this evening. I've not poked my head outside but its howling up the chimney hear near Uckfield. -
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards
Convergence replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Very windy here in E Sussex, tried to drive to Heathfield but road blocked by huge Oak tree across the road just past Blackboys. Decided to head home and do some work there. Definitely not a good time to be driving. -
Southeast and East Anglia weather discussion
Convergence replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
It's just to the SE of me, probably 10 - 15 miles (I'm near Heathfield), almost constant flashes and bangs, the whole sky lighting up to the SE - the dog is not happy at all! -
Southeast and East Anglia weather discussion
Convergence replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Was snowing heavily for about an hour in Heathfield from just after midnight until about 1.20am. Pavements and grass white and some wet but white areas on the minor roads. Dark slush on the main road. It was actually some of the heaviest snowfall I've seen all winter. Will try and post a pic. -
Model discussion - Warm spell ending as Spring begins
Convergence replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
To my mind things are definitely looking up again. And although she's cleared her throat a few times the large lady certainly hasn't broken into song just yet. Over recent GFS runs in FI the mild sectors are getting smaller and the uppers getting colder with each passing system. If we do see some wintry action it will probably be a repeating pattern of heavy wet snow failing to settle or washed away within 24 hours but I'd take that in an instant given the winter we've had so far. I'm seeing repeated active systems with lots of precipitation passing NW to SE and with uppers just cold enough for snow to low levels. From an IMBY perspective (SE England) the 11th onwards is where things just might get interesting. A key factor at this time of year may well be whether the sweet spot passes over any particular location at night or during the day. Keep the faith, I've a feeling it's not over just yet... -
Fair enough, wish I could find some reason to laugh about our winter though
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Not sure the Accuweather historical data is accurate with it's 1mm normal amount for January. Some other sites give a normal rainfall for Jan in Madrid in the region 37mm. That would make this years Jan rainfall for Madrid about 30% of normal which ties in better with the "dry and settled" for the rest of Spain and Portugal.
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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
Convergence replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
Still rain in Blackboys.