[Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?]

4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Im not sure the MJO was being written off, just that phase 8 of the MJO in February does not necessarily produce a Greenland High. Nouska posted some compisites earlier.

But timing is everything...slower better in this case not progressive, GH is a distinct possibility by next weekend in my view. Phase 1... I doubt it.

[Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?]

As I mentioned up the page models now trying to re align to a slower Mjo phase 8 not a quicker progression (GFS pulled trigger to early)...ECM trying.....Interesting fight!

[Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?]

Still think the models are re aligning to the slower MJO forcing into phase 8, interesting all sniffing height rises into next weekend with continued wave1 breaking.....Interesting next few days to see where the block goes....

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

The gfs had a premature triggering of its Mjo forcing hence its Operationals overdoing things, now it's settled down.....Id go for the ECM evolution very feasible right up to day 10......Nice cold snap with possible snow showers, brief change as operationals get their act together before retrogression and a lovely Neaster as the CONUS call it...ECM right in a slower MJO forcing......Feb is becoming very interesting...

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

3 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Lovely JMA at 156hrs 

That's yesterdays......

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ecm 12z is an outlier.

And bounces against the suite.

The advanced now blocking' challenges the assumptions of easterly inflow and westwards migration of deep (infer) cold.

It's looking lively and primed for a decent cold interaction of uk placement. ...obviously now the Scandinavian settlement of heights are knats whisker of fruition of eventuality. ..

But its the best its been for an eternity. 

Long feed/vertical feed thats the defining' differences. 

Eh?....Sorry I don't understand that, new. Any chance of charts, explanations please?

[Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The northern arm of the jet is very strong on the day 10 ecm. The mega cold pool over eastern Europe will be advected south and east into central/southern Europe.

But your quoting 1 frame from one 12z ECM operational?....at day 10