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TonyH

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  1. TonyH
    [font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Plenty of dry and warm weather, perhaps breaking down over the holiday weekend?[/b][/font]

    [font=Helvetica][b]The week gone:[/b][/font]

    [font=Helvetica]A cooler feel early last week, temperatures only reached 17.5c on Monday at Llanwnnen (the coolest day for 6 weeks), and 17.8c at Coventry on Tuesday, we did though get warm, but moist air Thursday into Friday, 25c being reached at Coleshill and Wellesbourne in Warwickshire on Thursday with some pleasant sunny spells too. Not much rain until Thursday, the very moist, warm air enveloping the UK then produced copious rainfall through Thursday night, which was not anticipated to this level in last week's guide! Trawsgoed, Ceredigion, was the wettest spot in the UK in the 24 hours to 6am Friday receiving 58.6mm rainfall, and many parts of Wales had betwen 25 and 50mm (one to two inches) rain during Thursday and Friday. All this rain caused localised flooding in Mid and North Wales on Friday and even a landslide onto the A487 near Corris, South Gwynedd. Nor did the Midlands escape the deluge, with Coventry having 26mm in the 24 hours to 0900 Friday, however much of the Midlands had less at 10 to 15mm. [/font]

    [font=Helvetica][b]The week to come:[/b][/font]

    [font=Helvetica]A much better prospect in the coming week with plenty of dry and warm, even very warm weather, however this may not last over the Bank Holiday weekend. Saturday's damp weather has moved off leaving a mainly dry and bright Sunday with just a few scattered showers in places. Highs on Sunday afternoon between 19 and 21c with a moderate westerly breeze. Clearing skies and reducing breezes tonight means a cooler night than of late (incidentally last Wednesday was the warmest night of this Summer here, a low of just 16.5c), temperatures down to 8 to 10c away from coasts. A ridge of high pressure builds in from the SW through Monday, a dry and bright day, some decent sunny spells, only the isolated light shower possible over Welsh hills, and a refreshing westerly breeze, highs of 18 or 19c for West Wales and 21c for the Midlands. Clear periods and quite a cool night again follows, minima ranging from 13c on coasts to 8c for some inland rural spots. High pressure over southern England on Tuesday, warm and sunny for the Midlands, sunny spells too for West Wales, although perhaps clouding over later in the afternoon here. Highs on Tuesday a pleasant 20 or 21c for West Wales and 24c for the Midlands.[/font]

    [font=Helvetica]A weakening disturbance tracks close to NW UK on Wednesday, so perhaps more in the way of cloud and even a shower or two in places, and a very slight chance of isolated thunder, but many places remaining dry. Rather warm and humid on Wednesday, maxima generally between 21 and 25c, highest over the Midlands, where warm sunny breaks are more likely afternoon. Clear spells overnight with lows 11 to 14c. High pressure centred to our NE over Scandinavia on Thursday with a warm to very warm SE to east flow advecting our way off the Continent. Models varying in just how warm this air will be, but the potential for temperatures to reach 27c 80f in places on Thursday, and with plenty of strong sunshine and gentle breezes. A clear night to follow so at least temperatures drop to a comfortable 11 to 14c. [/font]

    [font=Helvetica]Diverging model outputs from Friday - as should be expected with a Bank Holiday weekend imminent! A lot of uncertainty then with the holiday weekend, and some may be disappinted after all the media hype for a prolonged late August heatwave, conversely it may still turn out warm and reasonably dry! High pressure may well though not be in ascendance by next weekend, although we may avoid a washout weekend at least. Friday first, and another very warm day is likely, but there are suggstiions of a thundery breakdown later in the day and into Saturday. Sunny spells should be expected on Friday with maxima of 23 to 27c widely, and then by evening some showers or thunderstorms could be affecting some areas.[/font]

    [font=Helvetica]The all important weekend, and the latest GFS model brings a low right over Wales and England, producing showers and longer spells of rain along with a marked cool down. That's the bad news..the good news is that this particular model run is a marked 'outlier' with little support from the rest of the 'model suite'! Here, we shall 'go' with the ECM model along with much previous recent GFS output which has shown reasonable consistency in having high pressure over northern UK, and so painting a somewhat drier even pleasant picture. [/font]

    [font=Helvetica]Next weekend then is expected to see plenty of dry and warm weather with sunny intervals at least, but also the risk of some rain or showers at times. Greatest risk the further south you are of some thundery rain or showers, and more especially on Saturday it is felt, as ECM has a thundery low over northern France for Saturday. West Wales looks most favoured for some warm and fairly sunny conditions at times over the Bank Holiday weekend due to the anticipated NE flow which will serve to break the cloud crossing the hills to our east. [/font]
  2. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Welcome rain, with hill snow possible Tuesday. Cool, sharp frosts mid to late week, mostly dry. Unsettled Easter[/b]

    Quite a week just gone, with Winter and Summer in a day, from scraping the ice off to sunbathing a few hours later. Hard to better for prolonged warmth and sunshine in March, even if the Welsh and English records remained in tact. Most of us saw 20 or 21c; with Llanwnnen having 4 consecutive days above 20c, while Coventry had it's warmest March day since 1965. For a bit of perspective the average maximum temperature for the end of March is just 11 or 12c. This weekend has seen temperatures returning to more typical Spring values.

    March was very mild and dry, Llanwnnen had just 24mm , slightly less than Rugby's 25mm, an unusual occurrence, given that Ceredigion is twice as wet as Warwickshire on average. Only small amounts of rain in the coming week it would seem, with the emphasis being on cool, mostly dry and bright weather, with some late sharp frosts for gardeners to beware of.


    Monday starts off frosty, then is mostly dry and bright, but eventually clouding over during the afternoon. A trough moving down from the north is developing a low pressure system along it, which brings a little rain in places during the evening and overnight. Temperatures fairly mild for early April at 13c or so.
    As this low passes away south-east on Tuesday much colder north-east winds blow in, so that during the afternoon the spells of rain will turn to sleet or snow over the hills, with just a slight chance of a little wet snow for a short while to lower levels too. This should all clear away by evening, but a very cool, raw day with the fresh north-east wind restricting maxima to just 6- 8c.
    [attachment=132665:brack1 low developing Mon night.gif] [attachment=132666:brack1a cold air follows low hill snow Tue.gif] [attachment=132667:Rtavn602 hill snow likey Tue.png] [attachment=132668:Rtavn664 turning wintry Tue aft.png]

    From Wednesday a high pressure gradually sinks down just to our west, with cool air ridging east over the UK, so that the rest of the week looks dry, with plenty of sunshine, but cool with the general northerly flow. Some hard frosts for April between Wednesday and Friday, widely down to -3c. and as low as -7c for inland parts of west Wales especially, so some damaging frosts after the early spurt of growth. Cool by day too in spite of the sunshine, temperatures struggling to reach 10c.
    [attachment=132669:Recm962 V cool bright frosts mid week.gif] [attachment=132670:Rtavn1082 cool ridge Thu.png]

    It looks as though another trough of low pressure will move down from the north-west late Friday into Saturday, but probably tracking to our east. Uncertainty then here, but there could be some further rain especially for the Midlands by Friday night, with west Wales likely to stay mostly dry. Less cool by this stage too, and we lose the air frosts.
    [attachment=132671:Rtavn1381 Tr to east late Fri.png]

    A rather unsettled look to the Easter period with a much more westerly spell setting in for Sunday and Monday bringing weather fronts swiftly across the country along with some spells of rain at times, but drier brighter interludes between. Breezy and temperatures only average at best.
    [attachment=132672:Recm1922 UNsettled Easter.gif] [attachment=132673:Rtavn2041 Unsettled rain EM.png]
  3. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Cooler with rain or showers at times; brief hot interlude Thursday to Friday; weekend very uncertain[/b]

    Our heatwave came to an end last week, spectacularly for parts of the Midlands with thunderstorms, Nottingham getting almost 3 inches rain in 24 hours between Monday evening and Tuesday evening, from a succession of thunderstorms causing severe flooding in the city and environs. Monday was the last really hot day, reaching 31c across Warwickshire and 25 to 28c for much of Wales. The rain held off for us in West Wales, where it was not until Wednesday night that some rain fell and then just 3mm at Llanwnnen, barely enough to settle the dust. Although cooler it was still a warm week for all places, and even by Saturday temperatures were reaching 22 to 26c widely. More heavy rain and thunderstorms for the Midlands on Saturday evening, over half an inch in just 30 minutes causing flooding in places such as Coventry, the total rain for the 24 hours to 10am this morning being 31.1mm at Bablake School, Coventry and 24mm fell at Rugby, no doubt some places received a lot more than these spot figures, such was the localised flooding. Mid and North Wales also saw a decent fall of rain overnight, properly ending the 4 weeks of mostly dry weather throughout July to date, and even SW Wales has not been spared with heavy showers on Sunday morning.

    The week ahead looks decidedly unsettled, but not cool as winds will generally be between west and south and even the seas are relatively warm after the recent heatwave by now. A warm but at times wet week then sums it up, with another, albeit most likely brief hot spell later in the week. With a complex of low pressures over or close to the British Isles Sunday sees some heavy downpours knocking about, most places getting at least a couple through the day, and more for Wales where thunder and even hail is a possibility. Still fairly warm highs between 20 and 23c, with gentle breezes. Showers dying out over the Midlands tonight, but some continue to affect parts of West Wales, where you may even see flashes of lightning should you look hard enough. Low pressure centred to our north on Monday and with high pressure well away over the south of France, nothing to prevent showers or longer spells of rain, heavy in places. With winds more SW even west and quite fresh, a touch cooler on Monday highs 19c for West Wales coasts and 22c for the Midlands, although there will be sunny intervals. Again, most showers die out to leave a generally dry Monday night. Unsettled again on Tuesday with the complication of a wave low zipping across the south as we go through the day. A dry start for most places, especially the Midlands, but then a spell of wet weather likely to affect at least South Wales and the South Midlands. Impossible to predict at this stage exactly how far north this feature will track but it may be that more of us experience rather a wet day than is presently suggested in the models. Assuming cloud and rain , then Tuesday may well be the coolest day for several weeks, highs between 18 and 20c, along with a fresh SW wind, although it would only take a few sunny breaks for temperatures to get higher, as the air will be inherently warm. A mild, rather sticky night follows.

    Wednesday, and the next low pressure is moving in off the Atlantic towards Ireland, this dragging up warm, humid air over Wales and England. Unfortunately for West Wales too much cloud and even rain at times on Wednesday for this warmth to be realised, highs below 20c here with hill and sea fog also likely. However, it should brighten in the afternoon for the Midlands with a humid 24c quite possible, although even here a little rain could occur at times. This low then drags up a plume of heat from Spain during Thursday, which after a warm night above 15c, sees strong sunshine developing for many areas. Always the chance of more could and perhaps some showery rain for West Wales, but quite a hot day, maxima at least 25c for West Wales and perhaps touching 30c for parts of the Midlands. One potential spoiler here is if the low is centred more over Ireland than slightly to its west, then West Wales may get a more cloudy and possibly damp day than expected, but lets be positive and go for a very warm day with sunny spells even here! The Midlands more or less guaranteed a hot and sunny Thursday! The heat and humidity may set off a scattering of thunderstorms during Thursday evening but many places missing these. Another warm, uncomfortable night to follow, no lower than 18c or so for some coasts and cities. Friday is a 'will the heat hang on' kind of day, as cooler, fresher air to the west starts to move in, although a chance it hangs on right through to the weekend for SE England according to ECM model? My hunch is another very warm/ quite hot day with sunny spells on Friday, with again the risk that some heavy showers and thunderstorms break out in places. Highs somewhere in the 23c to 29c range on Friday, least warm for coastal West Wales, where the fresher conditions should eventually spread in.

    As often the case, differing model signals for the next weekend, some have been indicating high pressure settling down but we will have lost the heat, so this would mean a pleasant and fairly dry weekend, and more especially Sunday, with sunny spells and temperatures in the low to mid 20s C. ECM however is this morning showing a nasty, thundery low crossing the UK during next Saturday night having formed over hot Spain, this scenario would bring more thunderstorms, heavy rain and localised flooding over next weekend! Benign or stormy we shall see?
  4. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Fairly dry and quite warm with sunny spells; unsettled next weekend[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Mostly dry and very warm then hot last week. The highest temperature readings of the year occurring between Wednesday and Saturday which you could call a 'heatwave' with highest station readings being 27.9c at Valley, Anglesey and 27.3c MIlford Haven, Pembrokeshire on Wednesday, 29.5c at Llanelli (personal weather station PWS), 29.3c Porthmadog and 28.8c Wellesbourne all on Thursday, 26.7c Little Rissington on both Thursday and Friday, 29.5c here in my garden on Friday, finally Saturday 28.5c Coleshill, 28.3c Church Lawford and 27.8c Coventry. Porthmadog in North Wales attained 29c each of the 3 days Wed to Fri and was one of the UK hotspots for the week. Some warm nights too, Mumbles, near Swansea only fell to 19.7c on Wednesday night, and no night read lower than 18c from Wednesday to Friday, for most of us inland however a more tolerable 12 to 15c by night. Hardly any rain last week, some places essentially bone dry all week, and needless to say sunshine was plentiful - all in all a wonderful week's weather! Back to more typical Summer fayre for the coming week, with temperatures closer to average, but often rather warm, and some, generally small amounts of rain. Turning more decidely unsettled by the weekend, but all in all this good Summer continues largely unscathed.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A weak cold front changed our air mass to a cooler, fresher Atlantic one overnight. Sunday then is a bright and breezy day, mostly dry but a few showers especially by this evening and over Wales. Much cooler than of late, but still pleasantly warm over the Midlands at 22 or 23c, but down to a more average 19 or 20c for West Wales. The breeze is moderate to fresh from the NW. Further showery rain in places tonight, again more especially for Wales as some fronts move down in the flow, an easier night for sleep with lows of 11 to 13c. Messy charts for Monday with various weak weather fronts and a ridge vying for supremacy. What does this mean in terms of Monday's weather? It should be generally dry and quite warm with sunny spells and a scattering of showers, these may be heavy in places. Maxima between 21 and 24c so not a bad day if you dodge the showers! The ridge wins out eventually and it is a dry night, lows of 11 to 13c again. Another weak frontal system slowly tracks SE across Wales and England on Tuesday, so some rain for Wales in particular for a time on Tuesday, but tending to die out as it reaches the Midlands and where it should be reduced to just cloud and the odd shower later in the day. Before this warm sunny spells for the Midlands and it may reach 25c in places and feeling quite humid, with more cloud its cooler for West Wales (WW) though nearer 19c, perhaps 21c should the cloud clear by late afternoon? Light winds. Dry and not too warm on Tuesday night, minima 11 to 13c. [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A bit of a ridge of high pressure over southern Britain on Wednesday, so again plenty of dry weather with sunny spells, just the outside risk of a shower here and there. Decent sunny spells too on Wednesday so it turns out rather warm again highs around 21c for West Wales and 24c over the Midlands. It could be quite a fresh night lows down below 10c inland. Relatively high pressure may well hang on for Thursday too over the south, so another mostly dry and quite warm day with sunny spells in prospect. However a trough is gradually encroaching from the north threatening showery rain later in the day. Highs Thursday in the 20 to 24c bracket, probably best over the Midlands with the light west breeze cooling coasts. [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]By Friday and over the weekend its looks as though it will be turning more definitely unsettled as a low sinks over Ireland or northern Britain. This solution not unanimous however, with the depth of the low unsure, and as there may be influence from heat building over the Continent once more? All in all then, Friday and the weekend turns more unsettled, so some rain or showers about, no washout, and as usual some areas escape relatively dry and even bright. Some of the showers will though be heavy and thundery. Highs somewhere in the 20 to 25c range, warmest over the Midlands.[/font][/color]
    [attachment=219941:ecmt850.024 (1) showers tonight.png][attachment=219940:PPVG89 messy MOn.png][attachment=219942:PPVJ89 wk front little rain WW warm Mids TU.png][attachment=219943:ecmt850.072 warm MIds TU.png][attachment=219944:PPVL89 m dry R Wed.png][attachment=219945:ecmt850.072 m dry Wed.png][attachment=219946:metslp.120 just about dry TH.png][attachment=219947:ecmt850.120 m dry rw TH showers by night.png][attachment=219948:ecmt850.144 showery quite warm FR.png][attachment=219949:ecmt850.168 slack unsettled rw weekend.png][attachment=219950:h850t850eu more unsettled but warm weekend.png][attachment=219951:prcpWest~Midlands unsettled weekend.png][attachment=219952:prmslWest~Midlands unsettled from FR.png][attachment=219953:t850West~Midlands rw week.png][attachment=219954:mgram_Birmingham rw week unsettled weekend.png]
  5. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Often cool and showery, some sunny spells, windy at first; perhaps mostly dry and becoming warmer Friday to Saturday[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The worst of the rain and showers held off last week, so most places ending up with a reasonably dry, bright and warm week. Some exceptions as always, on Monday and Tuesday some places caught downpours with thunder but these few and far between, then a wet Tuesday night, Valley on Anglesey getting 43mm rain in less than 12 hours. The nights were cool at times last week, readings of around 7c in rural areas, Shobdon, Herefordshire getting down to 6.5c last Sunday night, and then just 5.1c at Sennybridge Thursday night, and here at Llanwnnen 6.8c the low first thing Friday. Temperatures in the average to warm category (low 20s celcius) for the most part last week, but without any especially high temperatures, the highest I have seen being 24.2c at Church Lawford on Thursday, then Friday with 24.6c Llanwnnen, 24.8c Coleshill and 25.7c Wellesbourne, Warwickshire which was the warmest spot in the UK. The warmth on Friday set off further thundery showers and storms over the East Midlands, Nottingham getting flooding - 2014 has been a very thundery year![/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Some heavy rain and thunderstorms in places this morning associated with the remnants of ex- hurricane Bertha that are presently crossing Wales and England. Indeed some parts of England in particular at risk of severe thunderstorms, even tornadoes today, such is the input of energy and mixing of differential wind and temperatures within this system. The rain has already cleared this Sunday morning to sunny intervals and showers across West Wales (WW) while the rain continues into early afternoon for the Midlands, as said, with a risk of thunderstorms here. Highs Sunday afternoon in the 17 to 21c range, and it will turn quite windy as we go through this afternoon. Most of the showers and storms die out this evening to leave a largely dry and quite cool night but a breezy one, some showers still affecting Welsh coastal districts though.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The deep low that was Bertha sticks between NE Scotland and Scandinavia through the first half of this coming week, about which blow showery and cool west or NW winds. A similar pattern then through to at least Wednesday or Thursday, basically one of sunny intervals and showers, some heavy, and even a longer spell of rain may be in the offing, more especially perhaps during Tuesday. There will also be hail and thunder in the showers in places. Temperatures on Monday near normal at 18 to 21c so not feeling bad out of the wind in any sunny breaks, but Tuesday through to Thursday are decidedly cool Summer days, we will be lucky to see 20c and even cooler for NW Wales in particular where some days may well not exceed just 16c (61f) - poor indeed for August! Nights rather cool too in this first half of the week at somewhere around the 10c mark. [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Pressure is on the rise from Thursday but even the end of the week looks essentially cool and showery, the NW breeze less of an issue by this stage, so perhaps not feeling all that bad in the sunny spells. Maxima on Thursday and Friday cool in the 16 to 20c range still, best for the East Midlands. With the lighter winds by the end of the week and given clearing overnight skies, some decidedly cool late Summer nights can be expected, down to just 4 or 5c perhaps in rural locations, though nearer 8 to 10c for cities and coasts. Showers should become fewer and farther between on Friday and with some decent sunny spells by this stage as a ridge approaches from the west.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Our ridge looking a temporary affair next weekend although we may get away with a dry, bright and rather warm Saturday, low 20s celsius over the Midlands. By Sunday though there may be showers about once more although at least temperatures should stay reasonably warm. Looking further ahead out towards the end of August (and Summer 2014) and the models have a rather unsettled and not so hot look about them - although that could still alter for the better![/font][/color]
    [attachment=221390:PPVE89 DL NE Eng tonight.png][attachment=221391:ecmt850.024 DL NE Eng tonight.png][attachment=221392:PPVG89 windy showery MO.png][attachment=221394:PPVJ89 r windy showery poss lsr TU.png][attachment=221399:h850t850eu showers lsr TU.png][attachment=221395:ecmt850.072 r cool showery perhaps lsr TU WE.png][attachment=221398:h850t850eu cool showery WE.png][attachment=221396:PPVO89 cool showers less windy TH.png][attachment=221397:ecmt850.120 r cool showery TH FR less windy.png][attachment=221400:ecmt850.168 brief R Sat more showers Su but warmer.png][attachment=221402:h850t850eu fine Sat turning unsettled Sun warmer.png][attachment=221403:prcpWarwickshire showery week.png][attachment=221404:prmslWarwickshire R WEND.png][attachment=221405:t850Warwickshire r cool all week.png][attachment=221406:mgram_Birmingham showery cool week.png]
  6. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Changeable but often quite warm; potentially very wet late Thursday/ Friday[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Reasonably warm for much of last week, the Midlands being most consistently warm, some places here getting above 23c each day up to Friday. Mostly dry still to the end of July, although parts of the Midlands, especially Warwickshire, caught thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon (31st July). Church Lawford near Rugby had 15mm most of which fell in just one hour in the late afternoon, while Hatton, Warwick had 21.5mm from these afternoon storms. West Wales (WW) cooled down by the end of the week and it was wet in many places too on Friday into Saturday, some spots having more rain in 24 hours than in the whole of July! In the 24 hours to 0600 Saturday Aberporth had 44.6mm, Trawsgoed 36mm and Pembrey Sands 31mm. Some spectacular thunderstorms over the Midlands on Saturday, Evesham hard hit with 2cm hail and torrential rain.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]July 2014 was a warm and sunny month, and most places were dry too, although locally thunderstorms made it wetter than average. Much of West Wales had a very dry month with less than half the average rainfall. Some monthly totals:[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Mona, Anglesey 56.2mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Trawsgoed 45mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Llanwnnen 34.6mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Pembrey Sands 25.6mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Llanelli 37.1mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Coleshill 41.2mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Coventry, Bablake School 53mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Church Lawford 41.6mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Long Lawford 33.4mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Pershore, Worc 69.6mm[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The rather deep low that gave all the rain and showers on Saturday is now over Scotland and moving away but with a rather tight circulation about it making for quite a windy day. Sunday afternoon then bright and breezy, sunny spells but some showers for North Wales in particular. Highs a pleasant 20 to 22c although tempered by the fresh SW wind, cooler though for showery Snowdonia. Bar the odd shower for West Wales WW a dry night with cool temperatures, lows around 10c.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Relatively high pressure close to southern Britain on Monday as our low edges off north leaving just the odd scattered shower, but a mostly dry day with sunny spells, highs around the early August average once more at 20 to 23c. A rather cool and clear night follows down to 8c in places. A front makes slow progress in from the west during Tuesday bringing showery rain to WW by midday and onto the Midlands by late afternoon. Warm sunny spells ahead of the showery rain, 24c for the East Midlands but nearer 21c for WW. Quite light winds on both Monday and Tuesday. The rather nondescript pressure pattern lasts into Wednesday too, although lows are gathering west of Ireland. One of those 'iffy' days - there will be some pleasant sunny breaks but showers, even longer spells of rain never far away and so you would be fortunate to escape dry! Temperatures not too bad again in the 20 to 24c range, so feeling pretty warm in the sunny intervals. [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Nights from mid week on should be mild, say in the 12 to 15c bracket. Although there will be some fine and warm interludes from mid week, we are increasingly seeing potential for wet weather from time to time. Time being of the essence, as at this forecasting range just where and when then rain will fall is open to speculation. Thursday and we may just get away with a generally dry and warm day with sunny spells, maxima between 21 to 25c as the synoptic charts appear rather featureless and slack. Of course we should not rule out a few sharp showers for Thursday afternoon being set off by the warm sunshine! Good model agreement that a low incorporating some warm, humid air will cross southern Britain on Thursday night and Friday, so this bringing some very heavy and perhaps thundery rain where it decides to track - with Wales at the moment seemingly favourite for the wettest weather going into Friday. The prospect of some 6 to 12 hours of heavy rain then for certain areas going into Friday, the East Midlands perhaps not seeing too much rain and given some brightness a humid 24c possible here, compared to a cool 18c for cloudy, damper parts of Wales. Where this low hits a good 25mm rain is likely so something to be aware of given flooding potential.. proviso: this low may decide to arrive early and spoil Thursday afternoon for WW! [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Next weekend and low pressure never far away so always the threat of showers or longer spells of rain, some areas perhaps not so wet however as we may see temporary ridging. Temperatures well up to average, even on the warm side reaching between 20 and 25c, there should also be some sunny spells.[/font][/color]
  7. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Mostly dry and warm with sunny spells, very warm even by Thursday/ Friday; unsettled and cooler weekend[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Plenty of rather warm, dry and bright weather last week, although it turned more unsettled during Thursday with the first real rain for a fortnight or so for many places. 23.4c Llanwnnen on Wednesday made it the warmest day so far this year. Other high readings include 24.7c Hereford, 24.1c Church Lawford, 23.7c Little Rissington, 24.4c Mumbles and 23.5c Pembrey Sands all on Monday, these although warm are unremarkable readings for Summer. Heavy showers for most on Friday and thunderstorms for some, these gave over an inch of rain to parts of the Midlands, the highest total being 28.2mm at Market Bosworth, Leicestershire, with Long Lawford, Warwickshire having 35.4mm in the 36 hours to Saturday morning. This enough to turn what was looking like quite a dry June into a wet one, West Wales has still managed a reasonably dry month however. Some more localised downpours in places on Saturday, Swyddffynnon, Ceredigion caught 28.4mm while places just a few miles away saw very little rain. Saturday was a cool day for the Midlands, Coleshill and Coventry only managed 16c due to persistent cloud.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Some dry and warm weather for much of the coming week again, very warm even later in the week with the Summer's first 80f possible by Friday for the Midlands! Signals of a more unsetttled and cooler weekend however. Sunday afternoon is largely dry with sunny spells, just a scattering of showers over the Midlands, temperatures reaching a pleasant 19 to 21c. Clear periods and a cool night, some rural spots down to 5c or so, but nearer 10c for coasts and cities. Although a low system is passing to our SW during Monday the rain should avoid us only really making it into Cornwall and Devon. Another mostly dry and bright day with sunny spells, again a few showers developing but most places remain essentially dry. Highs 19 to 22c about average for the last day of June. Slack pressure on Tuesday and again largely dry with spells of warm sunshine and light winds, the odd sharp shower for a few spots. Highs on Tuesday 20 to 23c. Dry with decent sunny spells again for Wednesday with a ridge over southern UK and probably a touch warmer, highs 22 to 25c quite likely, so a warm day. As with previous nights it cools pleasantly down to minima of 8 to 12c.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A deep low is situated near Iceland on Thursday but with high pressure still close to our SW it looks largely dry and warm again with sunny periods. This could be the warmest day of the week, indeed the year so far, highs for most in the 23 to 26c range, cooler for western coasts. The dry and warm, even very warm weather may hold on for Friday too, GFS showing 28c maxima over the Midlands but it may not end up quite so hot and with a westerly drift of air Cardigan Bay pleasantly cooler. Mostly dry but the warmth setting off a scattering of heavy showers or thunderstorms, particularly for the Midlands. [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A trough looks set to spoil next weekend somewhat although to what extent the weather deteriorates is questionnable. However a fall in pressure is likely by Saturday and weather fronts look set to bring spells of rain to be followed by showers for Sunday when it will be noticeably cooler. Not all models show an especially poor weekend though and some recent GFS model runs keep it quite warm and with not so much in the way of rain.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217594:PPVG89 m dry ss.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217595:PPVJ89 m dry RW Tu.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217596:ecmt850.072 m dry RW TU WE.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217597:h850t850eu warm ss WE.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217598:PPVO89 dry warm TH.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217599:h850t850eu warm dry TH.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217600:ecmt850.144 TH FR m dry v warm potential.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217601:ecmt850.168 unsettled cooler weekend.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217602:h850t850eu cooling weekend but little rain.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217603:prcpWarwickshire m dry week until weekend.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217604:t850Warwickshire warm week.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217605:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color][/font][/color]
  8. TonyH
    [b]Headline: April showers, some longer spells of rain, cool to average temperatures[/b]

    A very sharp frost for April last Thursday night, down to -6c at Llanwnnen.
    Coventry had as much rain on Tuesday and Wednesday as it did in the whole of March. Rugby was even wetter receiving a very useful 24mm in the bid to prevent a hosepipe ban this Summer! These parts also saw a little snow for a while. West Wales has only had small amounts of rain of late, although this will change in the coming week.

    Low pressure edges towards Scotland during Sunday, so a lot of cloud and becoming quite windy as the day goes on. Rain and drizzle at times, especially during the afternoon and evening, but most of it light. Temperatures around the April average reaching 12 or 13c.
    The trailing cold front looks like developing a wave on Easter Monday, which could be a bit of a washout depending on how this feature develops. The worst of the rain is likely to be in the afternoon, and along with a strong south-west wind to spoil the holiday. Temperatures rather irrelevant given the wind and rain but on the cool side.
    [attachment=132943:brack1 wave rain Mon.gif] [attachment=132944:Rtavn541 wet windy Mon.png]

    During the middle of the week (Tuesday to Thursday) we are still affected by this low which moves into the North Sea or Scandinavia. Rather cool with showery north-west winds. As is the case with showers, some places will get quite a few downpours, while others, even just a few miles away, escape with a mostly dry day. Hail and even the odd crack of thunder are distinctly possible given such an unstable air mass. Temperatures on the cool side, generally only reaching 10- 12c, however, where the showers are fewer it will feel pleasant enough in the sunny spells and could manage 15c at best, perhaps most likely for the Midlands this. Winds are lighter from Wednesday so that some of the showers, where they occur, could well be prolonged, giving an hour or two of wet weather. Clearing skies overnight along with the cool air mass will see slight frosts developing.
    [attachment=132945:brack4 Showers L Scand.gif] [attachment=132946:Recm962 cool showery mid week.gif]

    The usual uncertainty for the end of the week, but there are suggestions of higher pressure and even a ridge moving in by Saturday, so a drier outlook with further sunny spells, and fewer showers about by Friday and Saturday. Still cool though with the generally northerly drift, maxima only around 10c or so. GFS has particularly chilly air over us by next weekend, and is showing a hard frost for early Saturday, down as low as -6c for parts of Wales and the Midlands - this is a long way off to predict and so best just bear this in mind, as in reality the frost may turn out less severe.
    [attachment=132947:Recm1442 cool drier late week frosts.gif] [attachment=132948:Rtavn1562 frosty ridge Sat.png] [attachment=132949:Rtavn16217 cold night Sat.png]
  9. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Continuing very unsettled with more rain and showers. Mostly cool.[/b]

    We all had a good dose of rain last week, with over an inch for most.
    With the set up having been generally showery of late, local variations have occurred, so that for example on Friday morning Lampeter only had a couple of short sharp showers, while inland from Aberystwyth a lot of heavy and prolonged downpours gave almost an inch of rain. Meanwhile the west coast of Pembrokeshire has stayed more or less dry since Wednesday up to Saturday afternoon- lucky for holidaymakers there! As with the previous week hail has been quite a feature where heavier showers have occurred.

    The very unsettled theme shows no signs of relenting even into the start of May, with low pressure always close by, so plenty more useful rain for the drought declared Midlands. A complicated guide this week to try and pin the details on so much is happening, so things may not pan out exactly as envisaged below -but is that not always the case!

    The showers should have largely died out tonight so clearing skies will give another ground frost for many parts by Sunday morning- we got down to -1c last night here at Llanwnnen. The low that has been hanging around over the UK most of the past week finally fills up during Sunday which we see some more showers knocking about with sunny spells between them. Less chance of a ground frost Sunday night as cloud arrives by the morning. The next low then crosses southern England or the Channel during Monday. Some uncertainty as to how far north the rain will extend from this low, depending on it's exact track, but it could well be a wet day for much of Wales and the Midlands, and a very cool one too, with a fresh east to north-east wind, so temperatures struggling to reach just 10c, very poor for late April.
    [attachment=133340:brack0a more showers sunday.gif] [attachment=133341:brack1a v cool wet south Mon.gif] [attachment=133342:Recm722 channel L Mon.gif] [attachment=133343:Rtavn544 how far N for rain Mon.png]

    The low is close to SE England on Tuesday so another cool day with sunny intervals and heavy showers in many places. It does though edge away Tuesday night and there should be enough of a lull and clearance to give a slight air frost for most places. Yet another low arrives to our south-west on Wednesday, so that after a dry, bright morning, further cloud and rain will spread up from the south-west during the afternoon and evening accompanied by a fresh to strong SE wind. Needless to say with the wind and rain another cool day, temperatures up to just 10 to 12c at best. Indeed, Wednesday looks like being the wettest day of the coming week.
    [attachment=133344:Recm962 lull frost risk Tue night.gif] [attachment=133345:Rtavn9617 frosty Tue night.png] [attachment=133346:brack4 New L SW becoming wet windy Wed.gif] [attachment=133347:Rtavn1084 cool wet Wed.png]


    This low pressure area continues to sit to our south-west while filling up at the end of next week. More of same, with sunny spells and showers, these heavy and thundery in places probably right up to the weekend. Milder than of late though with winds more from the south, so at least temperatures close to the late April average reaching 13 to 15c on Friday and perhaps even Saturday too, and no frosts to be concerned about. A great deal of uncertainty in the models 7 days out though and with so much happening this week, and the reality may well turn out rather different.
    [attachment=133348:filling L SW Fri showery.png] [attachment=133349:Recm1442 L still SW Fri showery milder.gif]

    Meanwhile over Germany, the same low brings deep southerly winds next weekend with temperatures reaching 80f in places there. Wonder how long we will have to wait to see such heat!
    [attachment=133350:Recm1922 hot Germany next wend.gif]
  10. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Unsettled with heavy rain and strong winds at times, some drier, brighter interludes; continued flooding risk; temperatures around average[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A short- lived coldish snap last week, although here in West Wales it was only Thursday that was rather cold with highs of 3 to 5c. It stayed quite cold for a couple of days over the Midlands, and on Thursday many places here did not exceed 2c by day, and there was also a little sleet or snow in places. However contrary to expectations in the prevous guide, it was not overall a cold week but rather worked out around average, and with all the cloud we escaped frosts by and large. At least there were two virtually dry days here on Wednesday and Thursday, the first time this has happened since early December, to give a little respite from the rains, although the Midlands remained damp. Provisionally with a mean 183mm overall, January 2014 has been the wettest over Wales and England in a rainfall series dating back some 250 years! Parts of the southern England and Midlands having three times the average rainfall, at Coventry and Rugby it has been the wettest January since records began in the nineteenth century for example, whilst here at Llanwnnen merely the wettest since 2008 (238mm). January was also a mild month with no hard frosts and was snowless for many. Some monthly rainfall totals:[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Llanwnnen: 236.3mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Aberporth, Ceredigion: 201.8mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Llanelli: 239.5mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Capel Curig, Snowdonia: 391.4mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Coventry: 166.6mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Long Lawford, Rugby: 132.4mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Little Rissington, Cotswolds: 195mm approx[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Although we will see some drier interludes in the coming week the overall theme remains disturbed with a series of deep Atlantic lows with our name on them! This means the prospect of further bouts of heavy rain, localised flooding, and strong, possibly damaging winds. The worst of the weather looks to be during Tuesday night, Wednesday and again on Friday night. Little let up in the exceptionally wet weather well into February it seems, putting us on course for the wettest Winter of the past 250 years too perhaps.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Sunday is a respite day with only scattered showers these chiefly affecting parts of Wales, and all of us seeing some sunny spells. Pleasantly mild at 8 or 9c this afternoon with a bit of a SW breeze. There could be enough clear spells tonight for a ground frost over the Midlands but increasing southerly winds and cloud should prevent this for West Wales. A dry start to Monday for most although the rain soon arriving after dawn across Pembrokeshire. A slow moving band of rain, some heavy then gradually extends across all of SW Wales by midday and onto NW Wales early afternoon, there could be sleet or a little snow for the highest hills. Eventually a wet day then for West Wales, while the rain should not arrive until early evening for the Midlands, so essentially a dry day here with some bright spells. Highs on Monday around average for February at 6 to 8c. A fresh to strong south to SW wind everywhere. The rain clears West Wales by early evening but could linger over the East Midlands until well after midnight. Eventually some clear spells for all leading to a widespread ground frost, minima close to zero, although some showers affecting SW Wales overnight, so staying closer to 3c here. The Midlands not faring badly on Tuesday either, plenty of dry, bright weather and just the odd shower. Sunny intervals for West Wales too at least through the morning, but with occasional showers, some heavy with hail, and then clouding over afternoon. Highs on Tuesday of 6 to 8c again. We should all notice winds increasing through Tuesday afternoon as a significant depression approaches the south of Ireland. This deep low then crosses Ireland through Tuesday night with strong to gale force winds and heavy rain quickly spreading to all of Wales and the Midlands through the evening, and lasting well into the night, with localised flooding prospects by morning, as there could be an inch of rain falling in places - again just cold enough for sleet or snow for the tops of Snowdonia and the Brecon Beacons. The south to SW wind looks strong enough to cause some damage through Tuesday night and may reach 80mph for coasts and hills of Wales. Staying very windy throughout Wednesday with gales in places and showers or longer spells of rain, heavy at times with the chance of hail and thunder. This may well be another occasion when a tidal surge threatens western coasts, what with the strong SW to west winds, deep low pressure over Northern Ireland/ Scotland and decent sea fetch - the promenade was breached by the sea again at Aberystwyth on Saturday night. Maxima 7 to 9c on Wednesday, so quite mild. The Midlands becoming mostly dry on Wednesday night but showers keep going across much of West Wales, some heavy with hail and thunder still. At least the winds will be easing through the night, perhaps even enough for local ground frost by dawn Thursday. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Hopeful that Thursday proves to be another respite day of sunny spells, only a few showers and much less wind as we should be between low pressure systems. The Midlands could even be mostly dry on Thursday. There will be a southerly tracking low during Thursday which may threaten rain to the south as we go through the day, but present trends suggest this stays just to the south of Wales and the Midlands. However, the outside chance that this system tracks further north in which case Thursday could prove a wetter day than anticipated especially in the south of our regions. Highs of 6 to 8c with gentle winds. Reasonable chance of a widespread but slight frost on Thursday night, down just below zero in places as winds will be quite light and with clear periods. Yet another deep Atlantic low is heading our way on Friday it would seem, so although it may start dry and in places frosty, some showers are then likely, before eventually we all see further wet and windy weather by Friday evening or night, with gales in places. Temperatures close to average once more. This deep low crosses the UK during Saturday which is likely to be a disturbed day with showers and some longer spells of rain, along with strong to gale force winds. Showers may turn wintry, particularly for the hills as we progress through next weekend as it may turn a little colder but nothing drastic! The unsettled weather with minimal snow risk looks like continuing until at least the middle of February, so further wet weather at times maintaining flooding risks. No high pressure in sight, so very unlikely to get more than a dry day or two at a time.[/size][/font]
    [attachment=205949:PPVG89 wet Mon WW.png][attachment=205950:ecmt850.048 rain to all by Mon eve.png][attachment=205951:PPVJ89 respite Tue.png][attachment=205952:PPVK89 wet windy gales Tue night.png][attachment=205953:ecmt850.096 win dy showers lsr Wed.png][attachment=205954:PPVL89 windy showers lsr Wed.png][attachment=205955:ecmt850.120 respite low to FRance.png][attachment=205956:PPVO89 respite some showers less wind Th.png][attachment=205957:metslp.120 few showers Th.png][attachment=205962:ukprec rain stays to south.png][attachment=205958:ecmt850.144 becoming wet windy Fri.png][attachment=205959:ecmt850.144 becoming wet windy Fri.png][attachment=205960:ecmt850.168 showers lsr windy Sat.png][attachment=205961:ecmt850.192 colder perhaps wintry showers Sun.png][attachment=205963:prcpWarwickshire rain at times drier interludes Warks.png][attachment=205964:t850Warwickshire ave temps.png][attachment=205965:prmslSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion unsettled to mid month.png][attachment=205966:mgram_Birmingham.png]
  11. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]

    [b]Headline: Mostly dry and quite mild Monday/ Tuesday; cold and often windy with wintry showers and some longer spells of sleet or snow Wednesday onwards[/b]

    [b]Last weeks highlights[/b]

    Quite a cold week just gone, the coldest of what has been quite a mild Winter to date, however only a few areas saw much in the way of snow: hard frost across Wales last Sunday night lowest readings -7.6c Llanwnnen, -7.5c Sennybridge and -5.6c Trawsgoed followed by a lovely sunny Monday bar some wintry showers over Pembrokeshire ('Dangler'). The Midlands was colder on Monday night, many spots getting to -5c, including -5.2c at Coventry. Snow in places Tuesday into Wednesday. although WW missed this, even over the Midlands it was a fleeting affair, only the north of Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire seeing appreciable falls, the Peak District as so often getting locally deep accumulations of over 6 inches. A sharp frost Thursday night, especially parts of the Midlands, -6.8c Pershore and -6.1c Hereford. Friday did end up mild at above 9c over WW by evening. Overall it was a fairly dry week with precipitation amounts generally low (weekly totals under 10mm)).

    [b]The week ahead[/b]

    After the cold weather last week the start of this coming week is generally mild, and there will plenty of dry weather during Monday and Tuesday. Big changes from Wednesday however as we are plunged into a cold and quite windy NW flow bringing showers and some longer spells of wintry weather, most of us should have seen at least some snow come next weekend.

    Sunday is a mostly cloudy and mild day, a few sunny intervals are possible, mainly Midlands. WW will be seeing a little rain or drizzle at times as the day progresses. Highs Sunday 9 to 11c, with a moderate SW breeze. Staying cloudy and mild tonight with a little light rain or drizzle at times, then with a band of more persistant and moderate rain affecting all parts later in the night. No lower than 7c excepting NW Wales where skies clear by dawn. Any rain clears the South Midlands by midday and with a ridge of high pressure over Ireland it should be a mostly dry afternoon with some sunshine. Sunny intervals from the off for most of WW, just the odd light shower possible here afternoon. Highs Monday 7 to 9c with a moderate to fresh NW breeze. Clear spells overnight leads to a fairly widespread but slight frost, minima between -1c and +2c inland.

    The ridge is over sourthern Britain during Tuesday which is another largely dry day with sunny intervals and a brisk westerly breeze, highs 6 to 8c about average for the end of January. Probably clouding over during the afternoon for WW as fronts approach, these bringing a little rain or drizzle during the evening. Cloudy and mild for Tuesday night with rain at times, some heavy bursts for WW, and a strong SW to west wind. We will be in a warm sector on Tuesday night so one of those nights when it turns milder, temperatures up to around 10c after midnight. A pronounced cold front in total contrast swiftly moves through all parts during Wednesday morning with a band of heavy rain and gusty winds along it before it clears. Much colder air for Wednesday afternoon, sunny intervals and showers these turning increasingly wintry especially for high ground. Temperatures that were close to 10c at dawn Wednesday will be down to just 2 or 3c by mid afternoon! Feeling bitter in the fresh to strong WNW wind and by the end of the afternoon showers may well be falling as sleet or snow even to low levels. Remaining quite windy with wintry showers through Wednesday night too, most of the showers affecting WW, snow and hail featuring in these showers with a clap of thunder possible, and by morning there will be a covering of snow in places. In spite of the wind there will be a frost with temperatures down around -2c away from coasts.

    By Thursday a large complex area of low pressure area has become situated between the UK and Scandinavia and controls our weather for the remainder of the week. Winds right through to the weekend predominantly coming from a cold NW to north direction and with the quite deep low so close by it will prove interesting weather too! A wintry mix of showers for Thursday then driven by a fresh west to NW wind, snow could fall in the showers virtually anywhere but more especially over hills, some heavy showers putting down a fresh covering - again this possible almost anywhere. Maxima of just 2 to 4c Thursday so a cold and wintry day! A longer spell of sleet or snow may move down from the NW later Thursday or during the night, and if so may give appreciable falls particularly to higher ground. A low may be centred over eastern England during Thursday night meaning lighter winds by this stage and so with clear intervals between the wintry showers a widespread frost will develop along with icy stretches, minima 0 to -3c.

    A similarly cold and wintry picture seems likely for Friday too with low pressure just to our east and north, further showers or longer spells of sleet or snow, this settling particularly over high ground. Note: any snow accumulations to lower ground may well come and go as temperatures rise enough during day time to permit thawing, and in any case perhaps fewer showers getting across the Midlands with some places here having a mostly dry, bright day. Highs Friday between 2 and 5c with a cold NW wind. Next weekend and the cold and unsettled weather with showers and possibly a longer spell of wintry conditions looks like lasting. The details modelled vary obviously at this range ahead, but there is the risk of some more widespread snowfall at some stage next weekend as we remain locked into this cold pattern, no higher than 4 or 5c by day and there will be frosts by night. As with Friday WW most prone to wintry showers with the SE Midlands more sheltered and so may escape the worst.
    [attachment=241293:PPVG89 Mo m dry bright breezy.png][attachment=241294:PPVJ89 dry TU clouds over WW pm.png][attachment=241295:ecmt850.072 rain wind Tu night.png][attachment=241296:PPVL89 marked CF am colder wintry showers pm WE.png][attachment=241297:ecmt850.096 windy wintry showers We night.png][attachment=241301:PPVO89 cold wintry showers poss longer spell TH.png][attachment=241307:viewimage wintry showers TH.png][attachment=241298:ecm500.120 cold wintry TH FR low UK.png][attachment=241299:ecmt850.168 cold further wintry showers WEND.png][attachment=241300:viewimage cold unsettled wintry weekend.png][attachment=241302:viewimage cold from later WE.png][attachment=241303:viewimage precip most days bar Tu.png][attachment=241304:viewimage unsettled wintry from mid week.png][attachment=241305:mgram_Birmingham.png]
    [/font][/color]
  12. TonyH
    [font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Sunny spells and a few showers; wet in places Thursday; warm with thundery shower potential next weekend[/b][/font]

    [font=Helvetica][color=rgb(0,0,0)]June 2014 was a rather warm month with variable but generally below average rainfall, just a few spots in the Midlands being wetter than normal due to localised downpours[/color][color=rgb(0,0,0)] [/color][color=rgb(0,0,0)]towards the end of the month. Some monthly totals:[/color][/font]

    [font=Helvetica][color=rgb(0,0,0)]Long Lawford, Warwickshire 78.1mm[/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Church Lawford, Warwickshire 67.0mm [/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Bablake School, Coventry 48mm[/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Llanwnnen, Ceredigion 58.5mm[/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Trawsgoed, Ceredigion 54.8mm[/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Pembrey Sands, Carmarthenshire 39.6mm[/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Llanelli, Carmarthenshire 34.8mm[/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Some reasonably warm weather last week with sunny spells, nothing spectacular again temperature-wise, highest readings being 24.8c Llanwnnen and 24.2c Porthmadog on Tuesday, 23.9c at Wellesbourne and 23.8c Church Lawford, both Warwickshire on Thursday. Thursday was rather cloudy and drizzly over West Wales while the Midlands had another warm day with sunny intervals. On Friday it was wet across Wales, but still mostly dry and warm for the Midlands, while it reached 29c in SE England, the hottest of the Summer to date. It has not been a bad weekend with only a few showers about. Sunday night was very cool over parts of Wales, here it fell to 3.2c, one of the coolest July nights I have recorded.[/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Another week with a fair bit of generally dry and rather warm weather although there will be some rain or showers about too, the warmest weather may coincide with next weekend. Sunny spells and a few scattered showers on Sunday afternoon, if you do catch one it could be very heavy with a clap of thunder. Highs of 19 to 21c, close to the early July average. Another cool night with clear periods, some rural spots getting down to around 5c. A few showers continuing for western coasts. A shallow low is centred close to Scotland early this week, so the overall showery theme continues, however many of us escaping with very few showers and some stay completely dry, but where they occur they give heavy downpours with the chance of thunder. Decent sunny spells between any showers and so feeling quite warm in these with temperatures up to 19 to 21c again and only light winds. Another largely clear and cool night to follow, most places getting below 10c. High pressure attempts to ridge in from the SW during Tuesday but may not prevent some more showers from developing, there will be further pleasant sunny intervals, maxima 18 to 21c, so not bad with many places having an essentially dry day bar the odd shower. We are in a kind of weather 'No Man's Land' mid week as the UK sits between various weather fronts and ridges of high pressure. Sunny intervals and generally dry again on Wednesday, just the outside chance of a shower, and familiar temperatures of 18 to 21c, although we may notice the northerly breeze freshening through the day. [/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]A pincer movement of fronts gradually advancing from both west and east during Thursday, but as these are moving into relatively higher pressure over us, the energy tends to get squeezed out. However still enough frontal energy extant to produce some localised areas of rain or showers, these perhaps thundery, and no doubt some areas see more in the way cloud on Thursday. Variable temperatures due to the patchy nature of the cloud, rain/ showers on Thursday, a warm 23c where sunny breaks occur, but a cool 17c where wet, difficult to specify who gets what though! To hazard a guess would be a scenario in which rain or showers affect the East Midlands Thursday afternoon with West Wales more likely to have a fine and warm day...[/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]Our weather remains in an indecisive vein for the end of the week and indeed next weekend, the only certainty seems that we are in a warmer air mass by then. For Friday and the weekend then, the stab is for warm and quite sticky weather, oft-times dry but with the threat of some thundery showers. Maxima in the 21 to 26c range, with sticky night for coasts, towns and cities where it may not fall lower than 15c. [/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][attachment=218081:PPVG89 scattered showers MO.png][attachment=218079:ecmt850.048 rather unsettled MO TU.png][attachment=218082:h850t850eu few showers near ave.png][attachment=218083:PPVL89 NML m dry.png][attachment=218084:h850t850eu rain threat form E TH.png][attachment=218080:ecmt850.120 NML Thu squeezed out fronts.png][attachment=218085:ecmt850.168 warm weekend threat of thundery showers times.png][attachment=218086:h850t850eu warm sultry weekend some thundery showers.png][attachment=218087:prcpWest~Midlands greater rain threat weekend.png][attachment=218088:prmslWest~Midlands indifferent pressures.png][attachment=218089:t850West~Midlands warmer mass from FR.png][attachment=218090:mgram_Birmingham.png][/color][/font]
  13. TonyH
    [size=3][b]Headline: Continuing dry, very warm/ hot and largely sunny! Localised storms from Friday[/b][/size]

    [size=3]A fantastic week of Summer weather for all! Hottest over Wales where temperatures have been into the low 80's f (27 to 28c) at times, with each day reaching at least 24c at this location this week. Not as warm for the Midlands until this weekend but yesterday it reached a sweltering 30c at Coventry and Rugby! Very sunny too, an estimated 95 hours bright sunshine in the past week here as judged from my webcam captures, that's an average of over 13 hours per day! The only slight fly in the ointment was Wednesday for the Midlands where it was a rather cloudy and cooler day. Suffice to say a bone dry week for the vast majority of places, although a few spots caught a thundery shower in the Midlands yesterday, such as the Shrewsbury and Hereford environs. At least nights have been relatively cool, it got down to just 6.4c at dawn Friday here in Ceredigion. and most nights fell below 11c here in the countryside (11c being average for a July night). More of the same to come this week, very warm to hot with temperatures getting into the 80's fahrenheit again at times, especially from mid week onwards. July 2013 may well be going down in the annals of outstandingly warm and sunny Summer months! With only 4.7mm at Llanwnnen and 2.1mm at Coventry after two weeks of this month, and with very little rain showing in the models for the next fortnight, July 2013 could well become the driest for a good number of years (previous dry July examples: 2006 had just 30mm here, while 1999 had 18mm at Coventry). Plenty more heat and sunshine then in the coming week, with high pressure continuing to be stuck favourably over or close to the UK.[/size]

    [size=3]A foggy start in places on Sunday, then with patchy cloud for West Wales, and also some low cloud for the East Midlands as seen on the recent satellite imagery, this should be breaking to give another largely sunny afternoon, very warm generally with maxima 25 to 28c, although Cardigan Bay coasts nearer 21c with the sea breeze. A refreshingly cool night to follow down to 9 to 12c, although perhaps feeling sticky for cities. High pressure has slipped just to the SW of the UK for the start of this week, this permitting westerly winds and some rain to affect Scotland, this should though be as far as the more unsettled conditions makes it this week, as by mid week the high is slap bang over us once more! On Monday then, warm to hot with sunny periods, temperatures ranging from 21c for Cardigan Bay coasts where there is an onshore breeze again, 25c for inland and south coastal West Wales, and a hot 28c for the Midlands. Most days this week will in fact reach 80f across the Midlands, a proper 'heatwave' here. Parts of Cardigan Bay could turn misty at times given the NW flow off the sea. Again, on Monday night it will be refreshingly cool - if you stand in the garden at midnight - but with the retained heat in our homes, perhaps a problem sleeping! Tuesday a repeat performance, plentiful sunshine and warmth, if not heat. Peak temperatures in the 25 to 29c range, highest for the Midlands, cooler for Cardigan Bay coasts. [/size]

    [size=3]High pressure nudges closer in from the SW on Wednesday, largely sunny once more, and potentially very hot for the Midlands, 30c being shown by the GFS model here, while West Wales is more pleasantly warm with sea breezes, 21c on exposed coasts and 26c well inland, just the chance that some sea mist willl affect some western beaches on Wednesday. A subtle change from mid week is that we may well be losing the luxury of the relatively cool nights, so uncomfortable nights and trouble getting off to sleep by the end of the week! Thursday and the heat is more widespread once more, as the high sits over the UK, West Wales loses the sea breeze effect and joins in with the 80f heat. Sunny and hot then for Thursday, maxima widely 26 to 30c even along many coasts. A sticky night for Thursday too, probably remaining above 16c for cities and coasts, then rinse and repeat for Friday, hot and sunny reaching 27 to 30c widely, and little wind to cool us off! Friday is one of those Summer days when the heat is so strong that it may form a 'heat low' so the chance of a few thunderstorms in places for Friday afternoon or evening, the Welsh hills most at risk of these perhaps, but the majority of places missing these localised downpours.[/size]

    [size=3][font=arial]Next weekend and no respite from the heat and sunshine, and for most of us it will be over two weeks without rain and an 'absolute drought' (16 successive dry days), the gardens and allotments will be parched and plants wilting! Relatively high pressure remains steadfastly over the UK, although as with Friday a 'thermal low' may form over land in the afternoons, resulting in a thunderstorm for a fortunate few of us! Plenty of sunshine and humidity next weekend, highs again widely into the low to mid 80s f (27 to 30c). Indications that the settled, very warm spell hangs on towards the last week of July before it may at long last turn cooler and more unsettled? Watch this space...[/font][/size]
  14. TonyH
    [b]
    [b]Headline: Very unsettled, plenty more rain, more flooding prospects. Cool.[/b][/b]

    With just over a week of June gone most places in west Wales and the central MIdlands have already reached or exceeded the average June rainfall for the whole month. The Midlands had well over an inch last weekend, while Llanwnnen had over 2 inches falling over Thursday and Friday. These amounts, however, pale into insignificance compared with the amounts that fell over north Ceredigion and around Machynlleth causing the almost unprecedented flooding. The official Met Office weather site at Trawsgoed, near Aberystwyth, recorded over 80mm on Friday alone, so a month's rain in a single day! Radar accumulations suggest double this amount over the higher ground north- east of Aberystwyth and around the Dovey estuary. Hopefully, a rainfall event of this magnitude will not recur for many decades in that area!

    Some notably cool weather too for the start of June, Coventry had one of it's coldest June days on record last Sunday, a maximum of just 11c, while during Friday afternoon, Llanwnnen did not get above 11c either.

    Although a bit of a respite from the really heavy rain for a few days, we will see more heavy rain and showers this week, and there is the potential for another deluge later in the week, one to watch developments on ... but at this stage it's really not looking that good with further flooding likely.

    A rather cool and showery set up until the middle of the coming week, with longer spells of rain in places. A little low is running up the English Channel during Sunday, with some showery rain for many parts, and the south Midlands getting some more general rain later today and tonight from this low. Showers for Monday, mostly for the Midlands, and poor temperatures for Summer, struggling to reach 16c. During Tuesday another little low feature is set to develop over Wales, and so enhancing the rain and showers here, meaning wetter in the west for Tuesday, but perhaps a drier interlude for the Midlands. Unfortunately this low sticks over Wales through into Wednesday, so the potential for some large rainfall totals again here in places yet again. Temperatures will be suppressed on Tuesday and Wednesday where it is cloudy and wet, no higher than 14c, but given any sunny intervals a more respectable 19c could be reached for the more fortunate.
    [attachment=135254:Recm482 cool showery mon and tue.gif] [attachment=135255:Rtavn602 showery mostly cool Tue.png] [attachment=135256:brack2a small L Wales Wed.gif] [attachment=135257:Rtavn841 stubborn little feature over Wales perhaps wet again.png]

    Rainfall and flooding wise - even worse prospects for the end of the week. Another deep Atlantic low is slowly approaching later on Thursday, and this is set to gradually cross England and Wales during Friday and Saturday. Large rainfall totals are being modelled from this for Friday especially, easily an inch or more widely, and some areas could get a lot more unfortunately. These type of systems, such as we saw last week, and that is expected for the end of this week, contain marked temperature contrasts, which often result in copious rain, and not helped by the fact that these are so slow in crossing the UK, so there could well be more serious flooding issues by the end of the week, and perhaps more especially for Wales again. Let's just hope that the Aberystwyth and Machynlleth areas are spared the worst on this occasion. Friday could also be a notably cold June day again too, with projected highs of under 10c for north Wales on Friday, although this, at least is subject to change for the better? Although the end of the week could well turn windy for a while, a repeat of last Friday's damaging gales is considered unlikely. Nonetheless, a very cool, and very wet prospect to end the week - about as bad as it can get in Summer!
    [attachment=135258:brack4 another deep moist rainy L to SW Thu.gif] [attachment=135259:Recm1202 deep wet L approaches Thu.gif] [attachment=135260:Rtavn1322 fro L temp contrast.png] [attachment=135261:Rtavn1324 wet Fri.png] [attachment=135263:Recm1442 L still there Fri very wet.gif]

    No let up from this exceptionally poor Summer weather even next weekend which continues to appear low pressure dominated.
    [attachment=135265:Recm1682 wet weekend.gif] [attachment=135266:Rtavn1801 unsettled still next weekend.png]
  15. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Showers and longer spells of rain, dry interludes; cool mid week, potential warm, thundery plume Friday/ Saturday[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The Midlands had a very dull and often cool week, with the East Midlands particularly wet early in the week, many places getting over 25mm in the 3 days to Wednesday. Church Lawford, for example, was very cool on both Tuesday and Wednesday, only reaching 12c, some 5c below average for the end of May. West Wales escaped most the rain last week, with some dry, bright weather at times. West Wales was rather warm and bright on Friday and Saturday, 21c here on Friday.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]May 2014 was a wet but mild month, West Wales in particular was also dull. A somewhat unusual month in that much of the Midlands was wetter than much of West Wales! Some monthly rainfall totals:[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Llanwnnen 103.2mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Trawscoed 91.6mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Aberporth 66.4mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Llanelli 74.4mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Coventry 107.2mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Church Lawford, Rugby 82mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Coleshill 91.8mm[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Little Rissingtom 90mm[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Spring 2014 was very mild, this due, a large extent, to the lack of cold weather rather than prolonged very warm spells! Rainfall has been close to or a little above average for most parts this Spring.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]In spite of a fairly pleasant weekend things going downhill again during the coming week which will be unsettled with more rain and showers at times and with limited sunshine once more. Things could turn warm and thundery later in the week although this warmth may be restricted to the Midlands. Sunday is fine and warm for the Midlands, highs around 21c, but more cloudy and breezy for West Wales (WW) and 18c the best to hope for, although the sun may break through for brief intervals. Patchy rain arrives for Pembrokeshire eventually this afternoon moving across the rest of WW by evening, most of it quite light, but a rather damp end to the day in places. Rain at times for WW tonight (Sunday) with some of this affecting the Midlands too by dawn Monday. Several weather fronts slowly make their way across the UK during Monday so a rather cloudy day with rain at times, much of it only quite light, and a few brighter intervals. Highs Monday 17 or 18c for WW and 19 or 20c Midlands, these close to the early June average. Becoming generally dry overnight. Low pressure quite close to the NW on Tuesday, another unsettled day with showers and some longer spells of rain about, some sunny intervals, but some areas, and Pembrokeshire perhaps more likely, escaping with a mainly dry bright day. Cooler on Tuesday highs 15 to 18c.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Unusually, some rather wide differences in model output appearing as early as Wednesday this week, some charts showing low pressure over the UK giving further showers and rain in places, while others build a ridge during the afternoon which would kill the showers and give sunny intervals. Either way Wednesday is a cool day highs somewhere in the 13 to 18c range, coolest for NW Wales. I tend to go for quite a showery, cool Wednesday, heavy showers in places. There does seem to be some concensus for a slow moving low pressure complex to be deepening to the west and then SW of Ireland from Thursday on into the weekend. Suggestions again though of relatively high pressure close to England on Thursday, so another difficult day to call weatherwise. Literally it could end up cool and wet, or dry and feel quite warm! However, suffice to say WW more prone to rain at some stage on Thursday while the Midlands MAY get a largely dry day.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Paradoxically the picture for Friday and Saturday seems more predictable than does Thursday! A deep low is situated SW of Ireland with a warmer SE feed of air arriving across Britain. A plume of very warm air may well reach us during Friday and for Saturday, but with this some heavy, and perhaps, thundery rain in places. WW probably not benefitting greatly from this upper atmosphere plume though with some very wet weather in prospect and this pinning temperatures to below 18c, while the East Midlands could see 22c on Friday given some sunny intervals. Saturday too sees potentially very warm, thundery weather over the Midlands in particular, in any sunny intervals between the downpours 25c could be achieved. WW on Saturday perhaps hindered by cloud and more general rain and so temperatures likely to be inhibited to 18c or so, and it could end up thoroughly cool and wet here! Likely to cool down everywhere by Sunday with further showers or longer spells of rain coming through.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=214580:PPVG89 some rain times Mo.png][attachment=214581:PPVJ89 showery rain cooler Tu.png][attachment=214584:PPVL89 showery Wed.png][attachment=214577:ecmt850.096 drying Wed.png][attachment=214584:PPVL89 showery Wed.png][attachment=214585:PPVO89 showers lsr windy Th.png][attachment=214587:metslp.96 showery L Th.png][attachment=214588:ecmt850.120 m dry warmer TH.png][attachment=214589:ecmt850.120 rain WW m dry Mids TH.png][attachment=214590:ecmt850.144 windy thundery rain plume later FR.png][attachment=214591:h850t850eu wet WW plume later FR.png][attachment=214595:ecmt850.168 weekend plume exits unsettled r windy.png][attachment=214596:h850t850eu thundery plume Sat.png][attachment=214592:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=214593:prcpSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire rain times esp FR SA.png][attachment=214594:prmslWarwickshire unsettled drier mid week.png][attachment=214597:t850Warwickshire cool mid week warm FR SA.png][/font][/color]
  16. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Unseasonably cold with hard frosts and some wintry showers; milder, unsettled Easter weekend[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A rather cold week gone, especially for the Midlands, although Monday to Wednesday were not too bad here in West Wales, it even felt quite pleasant in the sunny intervals, however there was still sleet or snow showers in places too. Then came the rain and snow! Over two inches of rain fell here in 24 hours during Thursday/ Friday, and with snow for the Midlands on Saturday and Sunday, 4 - 6 inches generally falling over Warwickshire. Parts of NE Wales and the Peak District have seen almost TWO FEET of snow falling since Friday night, without taking into account the drifting! It has turned very cold this weekend for all of us, Saturday's maximum of +0.2c made it the coldest March day in Coventry since the infamous March 1947. The unseasonable weather continues for most if not all of the coming week, the final week of what is set to become the coldest March since 1962 for many areas. A White Easter is just as likely (unlikely!) as a White Christmas, so will the cold last long enough for snow to fall over the Easter Weekend?[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]The 'Battle Royale' discussed in last week's guide that has given the amazing Spring snowfalls, has decisively been won by the cold this weekend as the blocking high to our north reasserts and the mild Atlantic air is deflected to Spain. The belt of high stretching from Greenland to Scandinavia holds firm through to mid week, with very cold easterly winds blowing across the UK. This air has originated from Arctic northern Russia and has travelled over the Continent chilled by an unseasonably cold and snowy March. Mostly cloudy and very cold again for the rest of Sunday, light snow over the Midlands slowly dying out, with perhaps a few flakes in the air for West Wales this afternoon too. 'Highs' of 0 to +2c, indeed parts of the Midlands scraping an 'Ice Day' which is almost unprecedented at this time of year! Monday to Wednesday very, very cold for the end of March, and with a bitter east wind we will be getting highs of just 1 to 4c, whereas the late March average is 11c. Some of the Midlands seeing further Ice Days even? Hard penetrating frosts by night, minima dependant on the extent to which skies clear and winds drop, but -3c to -5c would be general lows for Monday to Wednesday nights, severe enough frosts given the overnight breeze, but the potential is there for -8c in places over snow fields. A mainly dry spell this with sunny intervals but also some snow flurries, these few and far between and not expected to give much in the way of accumulation through Monday and Tuesday. Some places, especially Pembrokeshire, will miss these altogether. The fresh east wind turns more to the NE on Wednesday, when some areas will see more significant snow showers putting down a covering.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=166617:ecmt850.024 bitter Sunday March 24th 2013.png][attachment=166618:PPVE89 Historical cold chart Mon.png][attachment=166619:PPVJ89 Ex cold snow flurries possible.png][attachment=166620:ecmt850.072 ex cold Tue Ice day places snow flurries.png][attachment=166621:PPVL89 v cold snow showers WEd.png][attachment=166624:prectypeuktopo snow showers Wed.png][attachment=166622:ukmintemp severe frost THu.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]On Thursday the NE flow slackens with lighter winds, so after another hard frost a better chance of sunny spells and somewhat less cold temperatures, although maxima of 5 to 7c are still well below the late March average. Still the chance of a few wintry showers getting into the Midlands off the North Sea on Thursday, but a dry and fairly sunny day for West Wales is likely. Yet another frosty night to follow. Low pressure is attempting to push rain fronts into SW UK on Friday, a rather similar situation to what happened the week gone. The usual varied possibilities being played out in the models for the end of the week, with low pressure approaching from the west; one recent scenario of further battleground snowfalls over Good Friday and the Easter weekend now seemingly morphing into a milder outlook after transient snow for some on Friday. The model output concensus seems to be for a much milder weekend with showers or longer spells of rain, with the latest GFS showing maxima of 12 to 14c, more where the mercury should be by early April! There does however still remain a possibilty that the cold block puts up an end of the week fight back which could bring more widespread and heavy snow for Friday and Saturday, but this is the less likely option. Good Friday therefore looks like our only chance to realise a 'White Easter' (sleet or snow falling from the sky!)[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=166623:metslp.120 cold wintry showers Thu.png][attachment=166625:Recm1442 L blocked Sat snow potential SW.gif][attachment=166626:h850t850eu milder wet GF.png][attachment=166627:ukmaxtemp mild unsettled Sat.png][attachment=166628:Recm1922 milder wet Easter Monday.gif][attachment=166629:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  17. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Unsettled with rain and strong winds at times (drier and brighter Tuesday and Wednesday); temperatures around average (12c)[/b][/size][/font]


    [font=arial][size=3]Very mild but wet last week, unseasonably mild on Monday night when many places only dropped to 14 or 15c, which is above the average maxima for late October! Copious rain, especially on Monday when much of Wales saw between one and two inches, and even more for some areas such as the Valleys. Further very wet weather on Friday too, Llanwnnen and many other parts of Wales having an inch of rain, although it reached a very mild 18c in the Midlands. Llanwnnen has had 109mm (well over 4 inches) rain in the past week, while notoriously wet Capel Curig in Snowdonia has had about 140mm. In contrast Church Lawford in Warwickshire has had less than one inch (25mm) during this period. With 118.5mm to date Coventry has already had its wettest October since 1987 (124mm) with more rain to come still. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The main meteorological interest this week has been the impending 'storm of the century' as greatly hyped up in a certain newspaper that does this week in week out. A lively depression is indeed likely to affect us in the next 24 hours or so, but comparisons with the Great Storm of 1987 (Michael Fish 'It's not a Hurricane') are ridiculous! Following the 'storm' then a changeable week, rain at times but with dry interludes and temperatures around the average for the end of October/ start of November (12c maxima), and as is usual West Wales receiving most of the wet weather. Firstly though, sunny intervals and blustery showers on Sunday, perhaps not too many for the Midlands but some heavy ones over Wales with the chance of a clap of thunder. Fresh to strong SW winds gusting gale force in exposed places on Sunday and rather mild highs of 13 or 14c. The fun and games begin this evening as a rapidly developing system quickly approaches from the Atlantic to our WSW! Currently at midday Sunday this feature is a mere 995mbar and well to the SW of Ireland, by midnight it is around 985mbar and is entering the Bristol Channel, and by midday Monday it is whistling away into the North Sea and could be registering pressure as low as 970mbar. Even at this late stage there is uncertainty over the development of this depression, although all models take it across South Wales and the Midlands through tonight. The model discrepencies are with just how deep and intense this developing feature will become as it crosses the UK, and there has been a marked trend away from more extreme scenarios in the past 24 hours model production, the low is now not expected to be as deep or intense as was being modelled just yesterday afternoon (such predictive 'downgrades' often happen at the last minute with our weather!). Close to the centre of the low (Wales and the Midlands) there will be little more than a moderate to fresh breeze for much of tonight, indeed significantly calmer than this afternoon will be, with the gales affecting southern England only - severe on the south coast itself. The main feature tonight will be rain rather than wind, this heavy at times, and will have set in later on Sunday evening replacing the showers over West Wales, but even this should not last long enough to present much in the way of flooding issues, even though up to an inch could fall by morning. In the wake of the low on Monday morning, a strong to gale force WNW wind may well develop, although even this is being shown now as much less marked. All in all much of Wales and the Midlands will not be getting much of a storm, rather a typical Autumn blow with gales in places. It could be a different picture for the far south and SE of England however where a rather severe storm may still occur. For Monday then a bright, windy day with blustery showers again, heavy and perhaps thundery in places, but parts of the Midlands escaping these. Cooler air on Monday maxima 11 to 13c. Winds gusting to gale force (40mph) and perhaps severe gale force (50mph) in exposed places such as coastal headlands and hills - an unremarkable event it may well turn out! Proviso: the system may yet confound and devastate us! [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The rest of the week straightforward to predict in comparison with the coming 24 hours! A drier, brighter couple of days before it turns unsettled with rain at times from Thursday. Blustery showers keep going through Monday night for West Wales but mostly dry for the Midlands, lows of 6 to 9c. Low pressure eases away to Scandinavia on Tuesday, which still sees some scattered showers, but with better dry, sunny intervals between as a ridge comes across Ireland. Rather cool and breezy on Tuesday highs generally 10 or 11c, but 12c for Pembrokeshire where it will be brighter. The ridge is over England by Tuesday night which is dry for most with clear periods and cooler down to 3c in places, with a local grass frost. High pressure close to the SE through Wednesday which is a mostly dry bright day, particularly for the Midlands. West Wales may cloud over through the afternoon as a trough approaches Ireland with some light rain and drizzzle in places by evening. Highs on Wednesday close to the average of 12 or 13c. The SW wind also picking up as we go through Wednesday becoming quite strong over Wales later. There could be further light rain at times for West Wales on Wednesday night but mostly dry for the Midlands. The trough slows down on Thursday and could give a wet day for Wales but may hold off until late afternoon for the Midlands, but most of us gettting some wet weather on Thursday. Milder air tempered by the cloud and rain on Thursday so around or a little above average at 11 to 13c maxima.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Another transient ridge drying things up for Thursday night or Friday morning, but the weather turning decidely unsettled again as we head for the weekend.with a deep low NW of Scotand. Temperatures at least up to the average and mild at times with the SW flow. So a windy, fairly mild weekend in prospect seemingly, rain or showers at times and perhaps another shot at the 'storm of the century' come this time next week?![/size][/font]
    [attachment=190333:xPPVA89.png.pagespeed.ic.KWEvrb2AUK nascent storm.png][attachment=190321:ecmt850.024 not so severe more south.png][attachment=190323:PPVE89 perhaps not this extreme.png][attachment=190325:PPVG89 windy showery Mon.png][attachment=190327:PPVJ89 some showers Tue.png][attachment=190328:ecmt850.072 m dry Wed.png][attachment=190329:PPVL89 m dry Wed.png][attachment=190330:ecmt850.096 rain Thu.png][attachment=190332:ukprec rain Thu.png][attachment=190331:ecmt850.144 unsettled Fri pm.png][attachment=190334:ecmt850.168 unsettled windy rain times weekend.png][attachment=190335:h850t850eu unsetteld windy rain times wend.png][attachment=190336:ecmt850.192 storm of the century mark 2 Sun.png][attachment=190337:prcpSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion quite wet week.png][attachment=190338:prmslWarwickshire changeable week.png][attachment=190339:t850Warwickshire cool then mild.png][attachment=190340:mgram_Birmingham.png]
  18. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Very warm and mostly dry with sunny spells; increasing chance of thundery showers from mid week.[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Again, as has been the case with much of this rather fine Summer to date, there was plenty of reasonably dry weather during the past 7 days, Llanwnnen one of the drier areas having just 8mm rain in total last week. The much heralded 'Spanish Plume' arrived with vivid lightning displays and thunderstorms on Thursday night/ early Friday, however these did not produce much rain except very locally. Thursday and Friday saw the highest temperatures of 2014 so far for most places, highest temperature readings of the week include 26.3c Llanwnnen and 26.7c Pershore on Thursday, 28.4c Coleshill, 28.4c Coventry, 27.9c Church Lawford and 26.2c Trawsgoed on Friday. These temperatures well down though on the 32.3c (90f) recorded at Gravesend, Kent on Friday, which was the hottest of the year so far for the UK. Nights were warm and sticky too to end the week, on Thursday night the temperature fell to just 17.8c here at Llanwnnen, some 7c above average minima for July, and the warmest night recorded here in the past 9 years. Some other parts of Wales were even warmer with 19.5c Pembrey Sands and 19.1c Trawscoed being the 'lows'. Widespread thunderstorms over the Midlands on Saturday, a few for parts of Wales too. These gave locally very heavy falls of rain and with hail in places, and caused flooding in such places as Gloucester, Shropshire, Nuneaton and Coventry. Around an inch (25mm) of rain falling in one hour in some places, Westonbirt, Gloucestershire the wettest spot having 79mm (over 3 inches) rain on Saturday! These storms did herald cooler weather on Saturday when Cardigan Bay coasts did not exceed 19c.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The weather has not though changed to an unsettled pattern as yet, and this coming week sees the return of fine and very warm, perhaps even quite hot conditions, although there will be a few showers or thunderstorms about too in places on some days especially towards the end of the week. Sunday, and the west is in cooler air while the warm, thundery air is never far from the Midlands. Sunny intervals today, so warming up nicely, some heavy showers and thunderstorms scattered about this afternoon, localised and mostly only affecting to the east of Birmingham, but again, locally will cause flooding. For West Wales (WW) we should escape with a largely dry day, just the slim chance of a shower here. Highs on Sunday 21 to 24c, so rather warm, but fresher feeling than of late, except over the East Midlands where it is still quite humid.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Monday sees a ridge of high pressure building in from the SW, so a mainly dry day, just the outside chance of a light shower. Sunny spells and maxima a warm 22 to 25c, cooler for many coasts where nearer 20c. A dry night with clear spells and lows between 9 and 13c so comfortable. High pressure over Scandinavia from Tuesday with a feed of very warm easterly winds from Europe. Relatively high pressure over the UK again on Tuesday itself, although a weak front bringing areas of cloud and a few afternoon showers to the Midlands in particular, for most places another dry warm day though, highs widely 23 to 26c even along Cardigan Bay, the NE breeze more noticeable over the East Midlands. Wednesday is similarly fine day with further spells of sunshine, sunny even for the west. A very warm day, maxima pushing 80f reaching 25 to 27c, perhaps West Wales warmest due to the easterly breeze and hence the air has travelled furthest over land to reach here. Just the odd shower or thunderstorm being set off by the heat later in the afternoon or during the evening over the Welsh hills. A mild largely dry night follows, lows mostly 12 to 15c.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The very warm Continental ENE flow continues for Thursday and Friday too, further generally dry days with sunny periods and highs in the 24 to 28c range, some coasts pleasantly cooler with sea breezes. Dry for the most part, but with a scattering of sharp showers or thunderstorms getting going for the afternoons and evenings. A greater chance of seeing a thunderstorm on Thursday or Friday it has to be said, even the hint of a thundery plume showing on some models come Friday. Naturally model differences for as far in the future as next weekend, some showing a continuation of the mostly dry and very warm weather (ECM) whilst others eventually turn it cooler and more unsettled (GFS). However Saturday at least should see a continuation of the very warm weather with scattered thundery showers.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=219599:PPVG89 (1) m dry warm MO.png][attachment=219600:PPVJ89 m dry warm poss sh Mids TU.png][attachment=219601:ecmt850.072 VW m dry TU WE.png][attachment=219602:PPVL89 dry VW WE.png][attachment=219603:PPVO89 VW few thundery sh TH.png][attachment=219604:h850t850eu VW few thundery sh TH.png][attachment=219605:ecmt850.144 some storms TH FR.png][attachment=219606:h850t850eu heat thunder chances FR.png][attachment=219607:ecmt850.168 m dry VW weekend.png][attachment=219608:h850t850eu warm more unsettled weekend.png][attachment=219609:prmslWarwickshire fine toi mid week then thundery chances.png][attachment=219610:t850Warwickshire warm to hot week.png][attachment=219611:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]
  19. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Mainly dry, quite sunny and rather warm, some showers; perhaps unsettled next weekend[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]It did turn drier through the latter half of the week past, although not much warmth as yet apart from the Midlands and parts of South Wales reaching the low 20's c on Friday. Some more unseasonably cool days experienced of late, Monday was very cool and wet the 'high' below 10c here, and it was a wet week over the Midlands, with a total of 32mm during the week at Coventry. Nationally, Spring 2013 was the coldest since 1962, but as far as the Central England Temperature series goes it has, amazingly, been the coldest since 1891! May, and although not particularly wet with 125mm, was the wettest since May 2006 here at Llanwnnen. At long last a welcome spell of generally warmer and drier weather in the coming week. No real heat in the offing, but we will be in the 'rather warm' category, that is slightly above the average which is 17 to 19c in early June. Unfortunately, this does not mean that the whole of Summer 2013 will be pleasant, we will have to wait and see on that, but mid June is looking poor...[/size][/font]


    [font=arial][size=3]Plenty more sunshine on Sunday afternoon with temperatures close to the early June average reaching 17 to 19c widely. North and west facing coasts struggling to get above just 13c in spite of the sunshine, this because the sea temperatures are still unseasonably cool at 11c thanks to the cold Spring, and any sea breeze brings that chilly air onshore. A largely clear and chilly night follows, cold enough for a grass frost in many areas, lows 2 to 4c, so yes, we can still get frosts in a cool air mass this close to the Summer Solstice! High pressure slap bang over the UK through Monday, so another dry and sunny day, a touch warmer too, maxima 18 to 21c, although again cooling sea breezes. In spite of the high pressure, GFS model insists on showing showers developing during the afternoon, probably due to some upper atmospheric instabilty, however I feel that this risk is minimal and any showers only isolated and light, while virtually everywhere stays dry and sunny. By Tuesday our high has transferred to northern Scandinavia but still extends a ridge south over the UK. A chilly dawn on Tuesday after a largely clear night, this heralding another mainly dry day, with sunny periods and perhaps an isolated shower for the Welsh hills or Peak District. With the high to the north the drift of air on Tuesday is more from the NE so West Wales could see some of the highest temperatures, 21c in places here, but more general figures of 18 to 20c expected.

    Wednesday, and the charts have that complicated, messy look to them with no discernable high or low close to our shores, a kind of synoptic 'No Man's Land'! Another cool start but the sun soon gets to work, although with the decreased pressure, and likely that a weak trough is in the mix too, providing the spark for some showers to develop through the afternoon into early evening, these most likely over Wales and where a few places could catch a heavy, even thundery downpour. Highs on Wednesday a little above average at 18 to 21c, with gentle breezes. Thursday and Friday still sees relatively high pressure over most of the UK, so more mostly dry and bright weather, with rather warm temperatures, maxima between 18 and 22c. Not completely dry, as is the theme of the week really, some places will catch a shower again towards the end of the week, but these are not expected to be at all widespread, and the vast majority of us will remain virtually dry.

    The weekend may see the dry spell hanging on, but we are under threat from lows both over the near Continent, and also from the Atlantic, so we will be most fortunate if we do not see rain arrive by Sunday! The weather looks set to turn cool and wet during the week that follows, so best make the most of this coming week![/size][/font]
  20. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Mainly dry with sunny spells but rather cool with further frosts; unsettled to end the week[/b]

    Another week has passed with only small amounts of rain, 12mm falling at Llanwnnen and just 5mm at Coventry in the past 7 days. Spring 2013 is turning out quite dry thus far. The Midlands turned warm with sunshine mid week, and we even managed the one mild day here in West Wales, as Tuesday reached 16.4c in my back garden. Big temperature contrasts on Thursday as a cold front slowly edged SE, Rugby neared 19c, while West Wales was cool at 10 to 12c. There were a fair few hail showers about on both Friday and Saturday in a late Arctic northerly airflow, even with some snow over Snowdonia and the Peaks. A rather sharp frost for the very end of April last night, down to -2.6c at this location - it could have been a notably cold night were it not for cloud arriving after 2am. For the week ahead reasonably dry weather again predominates, however our air mass is still going to be pretty cool, and so although it will be feeling pleasant during sunny spells, frost is still likely overnight given clear skies and little wind.

    Sunday's patchy light rain and drizzle clears tonight to clear spells and a ground frost for many places, as low as 0c locally. Low pressure is over Scandinavia on Monday with a cool NW wind bringing sunny spells and showers, with hail in places, the Midlands seeing most of these on Monday afternoon, while parts of the West Wales coast in particular escape with a generally dry day. Cool highs on Monday of 10c for NW Wales and 12c for the Midlands. High pressure ridges in from the west on Monday night, so clearing skies leading to a widespread grass frost once more, even a slight air frost for a few spots, the coasts escaping though. This weakish ridge is over Wales and England through Tuesday, so after the cold and frosty dawn, decent sunny spells and just an isolated afternoon shower affecting a few of us. In spite of pleasant sunshine and light winds, highs still rather cool at 11c for coastal West Wales and 14c for the Midlands. Clearing skies and another frost expected on Tuesday night with little wind, unseasonably cold for the start of May down as low as -3c, although I do not expect the -5's that this mornings GFS run is showing to come to fruition...it will be May after all! FYI nights start drawing in in 8 weeks time...

    Pressure remains tentatively high across southern Britain on Wednesday, so another mostly dry and bright prospect, and further pleasant sunny spells, although it may cloud over somewhat during the afternoon with a spit of rain here and there. Highs on Wednesday a rather cool 12 or 13c for West Wales but an average 15 perhaps 16c for the Midlands. Light winds and clear spells threaten yet another frost for Wednesday night, with a widespread ground frost at the very least (ground frosts are typically still common in early May). An increasingly 'messy' look to the charts by Thursday with relatively high pressure trying to stick close to the UK, whilst at the same time slack areas of low pressure and weather fronts seem set to chip away at it threatening some rain or showers in places as we progress through the day. Nothing majorly wet is on the cards for Thursday, and no doubt some areas will remain dry again. We are still under cool upper atmospheric air for early May, so temperatures again no great shakes reaching between 13 and 16c. Probably clouding over during Thursday night which will prevent any frost from forming.

    Fair model agreement on a more definite breakdown to unsettled weather on Friday, as a developing area of low pressure lies somewhere over the UK, with its attendant rain bands and showers. Friday looks like one of those days where it could be very chilly where it stays wet, maxima say just 9c, but a more respectable 13c where it brightens. Incidentally, it could be cold enough for snow over northern hills on Friday! It all depends on where this low decides to track. Low pressure close enough to provide further showers on Saturday, but then from Sunday, a warmer, although not necessarily dry phase may be starting...although the Jury is out on whether the May Day Bank Holiday will be wet or dry!
  21. TonyH
    [size=4][color=#000000][font=arial][b]Headline: Mostly cold with wintry showers and night frosts; possible snow events later in the week.[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Rain amounts this past week were not high enough to give more than localised flooding. A mild week gone with no frosts until the slight ones this weekend. For the month of January temperatures averaged out a little below normal, while rainfall was close to average for both West Wales and Warwickshire, with 120mm the total at Llanwnnen and 51mm at Rugby. The weather turns quite cold again this week and many places will be seeing some snow, although this will not be a 'big freeze'! [/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Further light rain and drizzle at times this evening and tonight, most of this for West Wales, but this mild damp air will be swept away as the cold front clears before dawn. With a deep low centred to the north of Scotland, Monday will be a bright but windy day with a few showers, mainly for West Wales. Temperatures around the average reaching 7c. There will be a ground frost, and local air frost for some on Monday night but with the breeze continuing. Showers becoming more widespread, frequent and wintry during Monday night as colder air digs down. Colder on Tuesday with a fresh to strong west to NW wind. Showery too, and with maxima of just 2 to 4c many of these showers will be of sleet, snow or hail. Most of the showers over West Wales, and on the hills above about 200m significant accumulation of snow is likely through Tuesday, although at lower levels, especially below about 100m, any settling is likely to be only temporary. A lobe of less cold air tracks down later on Tuesday so that showers tend to turn more to sleet or rain during the evening, especially below 300m. Becoming frosty eventually overnight.[/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=158914:PPVG89 windy some showers Mon DL.png][attachment=158915:PPVJ89 cold wintry showers Tue.png][attachment=158916:ecmt850.048 cold wintry showers Tue.png][attachment=158917:h850t850eu cold wintry showers Tue.png][attachment=158919:ecmt850.072 less cold Tue night.png][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Another cold and windy day on Wednesday, and with the low by this time over the North Sea/ Denmark area, winds will have turned northerly. Further wintry showers affecting West Wales, some quite heavy with hail, and with snow settling above about 200m again. The Preseli hills the favourite for a snow covering on Wednesday perhaps, with a shower 'streamer ', sometimes referred to as a 'Pembrokeshire Dangler' in which a line of showers track all the way down the Irish Sea in the north flow making landfall on the north Pembrokeshire coast. [/font][/color][/size][color=#000000][font=arial]Some wintry showers also affecting the MIdlands on Wednesday, few and far between west of Coventry, with most over the East Midlands, some good sunny spells though on Wednesday for much of the Mildands. [/font][/color][color=#000000][font=arial]Highs of 3 or 4c on Wednesday, feeling very chilly in the fresh to strong north wind. Clear periods and a few wintry showers overnight leading to a slight frost. Lighter winds for Thursday, sunny intervals and wintry showers in places, with again snow for high ground. Maxima 3 to 5c. However, disturbances or troughs could be tracking south in a slack, cold northerly flow to bring wintry showers or possibly a longer spell of sleet or snow in places later on Thursday, so something to look out for surprise snowfall-wise?[/font][/color]
    [size=4][color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=158918:PPVL89 cold wintry showers Pembs Dangler Wed.png][attachment=158920:ecmt850.120 poss disturbance surprise Thu.png][attachment=158921:h850t850eu cold wintry showers Thu.png][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Friday will see the Azores high ridging NE over the UK so a generally dry but quite cold day with good sunny spells. Less cold air is at this point attempting to ride over the ridge into the UK so it may be milder especially for Pembrokeshire/ SW Wales on Friday, maxima ranging from 4c over the Midlands to 7c over West Pembrokeshire. This then leads us into a POTENTIAL battleground snow event next weekend, as an Atlantic trough tries to move into the cold air over Europe according to the ECM model. The models are showing differing scenarios for next weekend (as often!) some have the cold winning out after the battleground snow possibility, while others see less cold air making it over us with just rain, we shall see...but it is difficult to get proper snow in southern Britain.[/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=158923:h850t850eu R dry Fri.png][attachment=158922:ecmt850.168 battleground west Sat.png][attachment=158924:h850t850eu milder some rain weekend.png][/font][/color][/size]
  22. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Very wet and windy Sunday, then some rain or showers, but generally drier and and milder[/b]


    This month is going some way to easing the water shortage in parts of the UK, and will end up one of the wettest April's on record; Llanwnnen has had over 5 inches rain so far and Rugby over 4 inches. The record for Coventry is 106mm (just over 4 inches), and so with a very wet Sunday coming up, a good chance this will become the wettest April on record.

    Another low pressure system is currently winding itself up over northern Spain and is on course for south-west England, bringing moist air and plenty more rain along with strong winds for Sunday. So a thoroughly wet and windy day, the NE to east winds gusting to gale force, and the rain very heavy at times. The largest rainfall totals could well be in the Midlands with an inch likely in parts here. With all the wind and rain a very cool day, temps failing to reach just 10c or so. The rain will cease during the evening, being replaced by a few showers and the wind eases overnight.
    [attachment=133585:brack0a wet cool windy sunday.gif] [attachment=133586:Rtavn304 soggy sunday.png]

    This same low pressure sits fairly close to SW England on Monday and Tuesday so more unsettled weather, however it will be appreciably warmer than April has been with the wind coming off the Continent. Still some rain or showers about, with some heavy again, but sunny spells between, so temperatures reaching 16 to possibly 19c.
    [attachment=133587:Recm482 warmer showers Mon.gif] [attachment=133588:brack3 more rain tue.gif] [attachment=133589:Rtavn781 unsettled Tue quite warm.png]

    A ridge of high pressure then tries to build in from the north-west from Wednesday, so it's looking that it will be a mostly dry picture for several days from mid week, with sunny spells, and just the odd shower in a few places. Temperatures close to the early May average reaching 14 to 16c, although there is a chance of some low cloud feeding in off the North Sea into the MIdlands, and if this happens then temperatures will will be pegged down to just 9c there, very chilly indeed. Where skies clear overnight, there will be a frost risk, ground frost in the main, but a slight air frost cannot be ruled out.
    [attachment=133590:Rtavn1082 rudge dry mid week.png] [attachment=133591:Recm1442 week R drier Thu Fri gf.gif]

    Now, for next weekend things are shaping up for a belated cold (cool) blast of north to north-easterly winds. High pressure sets up over Greenland and with low pressure over northern Europe, an Arctic sourced air-stream affects the UK. If this happens, and it's a long way off in weather forecasting terms, then a decidedly chilly weekend in prospect with showers of rain, hail, and even sleet or snow for the high ground! Most of the showers would occur over the Midlands, with west Wales more sheltered from a north-east wind, and a better chance of dry, bright weather here. Also, any clear skies by night will see an air frost readily forming, as low as -3c in places where the wind drops off enough. By day, in spite of the sunny spells, temperatures unlikely to better 9 or 10c if this snap comes off.
    [attachment=133592:Rtavn1502 cool snap setting up fri.png] [attachment=133593:Rtavn1802 very cool northerly showers weekend.png] [attachment=133594:Rtavn18017 very cool next Sat.png] [attachment=133595:Recm1922 cool showery next wend.gif]

    So although in the main next week it will be milder than was April, we are still not out of the woods regarding notably cool weather as yet.
  23. TonyH
    [size=4][color=#000000][font=arial][b]Headline: Very unsettled and windy, spells of rain and showers, heavy at times, localised flooding, cooler later[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]What a wintry week! Not especially cold for West Wales, surprisingly, with all the snow about, here at Lampeter there were no 'Ice days' and no hard frosts or windscreens to scrape. It was a very overcast spell, the cloud blanket preventing temperatures from falling below -4c here. However the 9cm snow which fell here on Friday 18th only gradually thawed, and was still covering more than half the ground surface on Friday 25th. A week of lying snow is quite an achievement in these temperate Isles, although in November/ December [b]2010[/b] the snow stuck for a fortnight. Warwickshire on the other hand, has had lots of snow and low temperatures with 6 ice days (max below zero) out of the 8 days to Wednesday at Coventry. Bablake School Weather Station ([url="http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/"]http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/[/url]) reported the greatest snow depth since 1991 last week (15cm), a measure really of how lacking deep snow has been in that part of the world over the past 22 years. [/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Surprise snowfalls that were poorly forecast all around affected South and West Wales on Wednesday and caused some disruption, especially in the Llanelli area, parts of Pembrokeshire and West Ceredigion. Unusually, Llanelli had two quite heavy falls within 5 days. People sometimes ask 'will it snow here tomorrow?' and seem perplexed when the answer is a 'maybe', 'perhaps' or 'possibly'! There are many factors involved with snow prediction so that it is impossible to be certain even a few hours before a snow event, as it's almost always a case 'nowcasting' - looking at the radar, traffic cams and out of the window! There is often a fine line between whether it will rain or snow at a given location. Some of the factors involved:[/font][/color][/size][list]
    [*][size=4]height above sea level (places above 200m are much more snowy that near sea level),[/size]
    [*][size=4]air temperature close to the surface (closer to zero the better for snow, although it may still rain below zero)[/size]
    [*][size=4]temperature up in the clouds (rule of thumb, below -5c means snow will fall)[/size]
    [*][size=4]dew points MUST be below zero for snow to fall[/size]
    [*][size=4]wind direction - slight shifts make big differences, example SE cold, dry Continental air and snow, southerly moist, milder and rain[/size]
    [*][size=4]heavy rain cools surrounding air through evaporation and may turn to snow[/size]
    [*][size=4]also local topography, 'thickness' of the atmosphere, etc.[/size]
    [/list]
    [size=4][color=#000000][font=arial]Interestingly, most rain in the UK starts as snow high in the atmosphere[/font][/color]


    [color=#000000][font=arial]Derek Brockway, our BBC Wales weatherman, had some stick on Twitter this week after not forecasting a heavy snowfall in SE Wales on Tuesday, and then again the unexpected heavy falls in SW Wales on Wednesday. This guide is intended to be a general outlook to the coming weather over the week and is not a useful tool for picking out localised heavy snow 3 days in the future, especially given the Met Office did not realise even as the event was underway! Part of the fun with the weather is that it never fails to make fools of the forecasters![/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Thunderstorms for many of us in West Wales yesterday evening with some really bright flashes of fork lighning - everything but the kitchen sink lately! Very mild overnight, 11c maxima for Sunday in the early hours here under that warm sector air mass!. All this weather the result of a very deep low to the south of Iceland (938mbar). Nice to see the sunshine this morning... however heavy showers with hail, and again a clap of thunder in places, are set to move into West Wales this afternoon, with an isolated shower into the south Midlands also later, a windy afternoon temperatures reaching around 8c. Another deep low develops out in the Atlantic tonight and is set to bring very windy and wet weather for Monday as its fronts cross the UK. First of all clear spells and only a few showers tonight leading to a ground frost for many by morning, excepting Pembrokeshire where cloud and strong winds arrive by dawn heralding a wet day. Rain, heavy at times through the afternoon, some torrential downpours for West Wales, driven by a strong to gale force SW wind, making it feel quite cold, even though temperatures eventually reach around 8c late on Monday afternoon. The rain clears to a few showers in the evening.[/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=158124:PPVA89 VDL 938 showery bright today.png][attachment=158125:PPVG89 wet windy Mon.png][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Yet another vigorous low pressure system comes at us from the Atlantic on Tuesday, this one containing very mild sub-Tropical air. With all this mild, moist air hitting the Welsh hills throughout Tuesday some large amounts of rain here with flooding likely in some areas, as there will be 50 - 75mm rain falling in places. For the MIdlands a cloudy, very mild day with spells of mostly light rain and drizzle. Temperatures on Tuesday reaching 11c for West Wales and 13c in parts of the Midlands. The trailing front from the system gives further spells of rain to south Wales and the south Midlands in particular well into Tuesday night, but drier for northern parts of our regions. Wednesday sees cooler, showery westerly winds, but with some sunny spells developing, especially through the afternoon as a feeble ridge edges over. This transient ridge could just about last long enough for a ground frost to develop on Wednesday night. [/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=158126:PPVJ89 Tue copious rain WW v mild.png][attachment=158127:ecmt850.072 next DL L to NI Tue heavy rain espWW v mild sector.png][attachment=158128:PPVL89 bright showery Wed.png][attachment=158129:ecmt850.096 bright showers Wed.png][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]The next low moves towards NW Britain on Thursday, with further bands of rain and showers crossing all parts. Temperatures a little above the January average on Thursday reaching 7 to 9c. On Friday the low gets into the North Sea so dragging down colder NW winds, more rain or showers at times on Friday, and possibly sleet or snow for Welsh hills and the Cotswolds, maxima 6 to 8c, and feeling quite cold, although perhaps a drier day for south Wales and the south Midlands this.[/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=158130:metslp.120 unsettled colder Fri.png][attachment=158131:ecmt850.144 unsettled colder Fri.png][attachment=158132:h850t850eu FRi colder showery.png][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]Next weekend, as usual subject to change, as it is a long way off to forecast! Hinting at a drier interlude with high pressure ridging into the UK from the SW, there will still be troughs coming over the top of this high, so some rain at times, but probably nothing like there will have been earlier in the week, with generally lighter rain or showers over next weekend. Where the cloud breaks there will be the risk of overnight frosts as we will be in a chilly NW flow by then.[/font][/color]
    [color=#000000][font=arial][attachment=158133:ecmt850.168 bit of cold R weekend.png][attachment=158134:h850t850eu drier weekend cool.png][/font][/color]

    [color=#000000][font=arial]--
    Follow me on Twitter [url="https://twitter.com/Lampeterweather"]@Lampeterweather[/url][/font][/color][/size]
  24. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Changeable, some rain or showers and equally some fine, dry days; cool start, warming mid week[/b][/size][/font]


    [font=arial][size=3]Warm, even some very warm weather last week, 27.2c at Coventry on Wednesday, 25.2c near Aberystwyth and 23.7c at Lampeter. Cooler air infiltrated West Wales during Thursday and the Midlands by Friday which was 11c cooler on than Thursday, a maximum of just 13.3c at Bablake School, Coventry. Then Saturday was very cool for West Wales,14.3c the 'high' here at Llanwnnen, and a decidedly cold 10.6c at Capel Curig, Snowdonia. Some rain or showers too over recent days for all of us, although not as wet northern Britain has been lately. Last week's anticipated Iberian high in fact turned out to be a cold pool cut off low over the UK, hence the warmth has got no nearer than Scandinavia where it reached 25c in places on Saturday.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Heavy showers have been lingering over Cardigan Bay coasts since Saturday evening, giving 2 inches rain to the Barmouth area, while some other parts of West Wales have remained generally dry. Further heavy showers this afternoon across West Wales, the chance of a clap of thunder in a few spots, however some places more inland escaping, and a mostly dry and bright afternoon for the Midlands, just the odd scattered shower here. Highs on Sunday a cool 14c for Cardigan Bay coasts, 16c for brighter inland lowland Wales, and a pleasant 18c over the Midlands. Showers dying out tonight and with clearing skies a chilly night, lowest readings around 5c, so not quite a ground frost. Relatively low pressure again over the UK for Monday so further showers for many areas, Wales especially likely to see some heavy ones, a rather cloudy day too with limited sunny intervals. A decidedly cool day, especially where there are plentiful of showers. A chill NW breeze on Monday highs just 13 to 16c, well below the September average (18 or 19c). High pressure is ridging into NW Britain on Tuesday, whilst a low pressure system develops over the North Sea this giving a cool northerly wind over Wales and England. Wales has a mostly dry day with sunny spells on Tuesday, most of the Midlands likewise, although rain affecting Eastern England could push into the east of this region as we go through the day. For most though, largley dry on Tuesday, cool though, highs between 15 and 18c.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Any rain dies out over the Midlands on Tuesday night, with clearer skies out west, a chilly night lows 6 to 9c. The ridge has extended across the UK for Wednesday, set to be one of the better days of the week. A dry and bright day, some decent sunny spells, warmer too, temperatures up to at least the average at 17 to 20c. Clearing skies and a rather cool night to follow. High pressure does not last as the ridge topples away south during Thursday permitting fronts to cross northern UK. The Midlands could well manage another mainly dry day out of it however, while more cloud and a little light rain or drizzle at times for Wales. A warm airmass for Thursday, with moist, rather humid Atlantic air, so given any sunny breaks the temperature will shoot up. Sunny intervals should occur for at least the Midlands and where the potential is there for 24c to be reached, while more generally expect 19 to 22c. We should still be within the warm sector through Thursday night, a mild one no lower than 13c, and by which time a more definite rain band could be strung out across Wales and the Midlands, so quite a wet night in places, pulses of heavy rain possible.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]This rain does not herald a full blown Atlantic unsettled spell as yet though, as the low is centred well to our north in the vicinity of Iceland and high pressure is never so far to our SW. For Friday, the cold front attempts to clear through taking further rain across many places. Should the front develop a wave it could slow down and produce quite a wet day on Friday, or - it may travel though more swiftly with a brighening fresher afternoon, at least for more northern parts of our regions. The usual caveats then applicable to Friday and the weekend, but another transient ridge could give a fine if coolish Saturday, followed by a trough, some cloud, wind and rain for next Sunday - changeable in other words![/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=184445:ecmt850.048 Showery cool Mon.png][attachment=184446:ecmt850.072 LE HW m dry cool Tue.png][attachment=184447:PPVJ89 m dry cool Tue.png][attachment=184455:h850t850eu warmer dry bright Wed.png][attachment=184456:metslp.120 R topples TR into W.png][attachment=184448:h850t850eu m dry Thu.png][attachment=184449:ecmt850.120 WS Thu some drizzle west.png][attachment=184450:ecmt850.144 cooler drying Fri.png][attachment=184451:ukprec wet in places Fri or clearing sooner.png][attachment=184452:ecmt850.168 fine Sat rain Sun.png][attachment=184453:h850t850eu fine R Sat r cool.png][attachment=184457:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=184458:prcpWarwickshire low spikes not so wet a week.png][attachment=184459:prmslAbertawe~-~Swansea.png][/size][/font]
  25. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Mostly dry and rather warm with sunny spells; more unsettled with showers in places from Thursday/ Friday[/b]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]We saw some warm and reasonably sunny weather at times last week, although sometimes it was cloudier and cooler, especially for the Midlands early in the week. HIghest temperatures over the past week include 22.4c Trawsgoed on Tuesday, 24.3c Pembrey Sands, 22.8c Llanwnnen and 22.6c Coventry on Wednesday, then Hereford 23.7c, Church Lawford 22.9c, Mumbles 22c on Friday - all well into the warm category for June. Virtually a bone dry week too, just a little drizzle in places on a few days, but many places having no measurable rain. Cool nights though this weekend, quite close to a grass frost for prone Welsh spots, the low at dawn today just 3.5c at 4 feet above the lawn here and 4.2c at Trawscoed, only Cairngorm colder than Llanwnnen last night![/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]More fine and warm weather this week too, so June is turning out a lovely Summer month for a change! It may be turning somewhat cooler and more unsettled later in the week, although this breakdown not definite as yet. Sunday, and the chilly night a distant memory this morning as the mercury rockets, plenty of sunshine today with highs between 21 and 24c widely, coasts pleasantly cooler with sea breezes, 18 or 19c here. Patchy cloud for the Midlands in particular this afternoon, a light shower just about possible over the East Midlands. Another cool, clear night, again inland Wales and the Marches down to between 4 and 7c, more like 10c though for cities due to UHI (Urban Heat Island) effect. A similar Summery picture for Monday too with high pressure close to Ireland, warm with sunny spells, Cumulus clouds building afternoon threatening the odd shower, especially over the Midlands, but 90% of us remain dry again. Highs mostly in the 21 to 24c range, cooler for some coasts. Light winds, another clear coolish night to follow, lows below 9c in the countryside. Tuesday may be a touch cooler and fresher, patchy cloud but sunny spells especially for West Wales (WW). Largely dry, but a few light showers affecting the Midlands, maxima 18 to 21c, quite a brisk NE breeze for the East Midlands later. A decidedly cool night follows, close to a grass frost for prone spots of the Marches and West Midlands with lows of 3c possible locally, but much milder for coasts and cities, above 10c at Llanelli for instance. [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Increasingly messy weather charts from Wednesday as we lose the high pressure but neither does the barometer sink so low. No real weather fonts to contend with for southern Britain so another rather warm and mostly dry day, highs likely in the 20 to 23c range, perhaps WW doing best on Wednesday. Sunny spells but with some areas of cloud rendering some of us a cloudier day. Pressure leaking away more decisively later in the week as it looks like becoming more unsettled. A shallow low close to Ireland on Thursday threatens some showery rain in places, although some of us escape with another dry day, WW most likely to see a few showers on Thursday. Still rather warm for the Midlands with sunny spells and highs of 22c but with more cloud and showers about WW cooler at 18c or so. Friday has the low over England so more showery rain in places, perhaps heavy in places, but again some areas escape with very little. Rather warm (22c) should the sun appear, but conversely rather cool where the cloud and showers persist (18c). [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Next weekend is uncertain, perhaps somewhat unsettled but with relatively high pressure still close to our SW, so no washout and it may not end up such a bad weekend. Best stab then, plenty of dry weather with some sunshine, but not clear blue skies, showers or rain for some places but not everywhere, hit and miss stuff. Temperatures near average, maxima in the 18 to 22c range. The jury is out regards what July has in store![/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=216928:PPVG89 (1) warm ss poss shower Mids pm.png][attachment=216929:ecmt850.072 m dry touch cooler TUe.png][attachment=216930:h850t850eu cooler m dry Tue.png][attachment=216931:PPVL89 dry warm Wed.png][attachment=216932:ecmt850.120 sh L Ire some showers pm.png][attachment=216933:PPVO89 showery rain threat Th.png][attachment=216934:ecmt850.144 unsettled FR r cool.png][attachment=216935:ecmt850.168 some showers WEND.png][attachment=216936:h850t850eu some showers ave temps WEND.png][attachment=216937:prcpSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion showers from TH.png][attachment=216938:prmslSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion fine warm early more unsettled later.png][attachment=216939:t850Worcestershire ave to warm uppers.png][attachment=216940:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]
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