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TonyH

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  1. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Changeable, some rain or showers and equally some fine, dry days; cool start, warming mid week[/b][/size][/font]


    [font=arial][size=3]Warm, even some very warm weather last week, 27.2c at Coventry on Wednesday, 25.2c near Aberystwyth and 23.7c at Lampeter. Cooler air infiltrated West Wales during Thursday and the Midlands by Friday which was 11c cooler on than Thursday, a maximum of just 13.3c at Bablake School, Coventry. Then Saturday was very cool for West Wales,14.3c the 'high' here at Llanwnnen, and a decidedly cold 10.6c at Capel Curig, Snowdonia. Some rain or showers too over recent days for all of us, although not as wet northern Britain has been lately. Last week's anticipated Iberian high in fact turned out to be a cold pool cut off low over the UK, hence the warmth has got no nearer than Scandinavia where it reached 25c in places on Saturday.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Heavy showers have been lingering over Cardigan Bay coasts since Saturday evening, giving 2 inches rain to the Barmouth area, while some other parts of West Wales have remained generally dry. Further heavy showers this afternoon across West Wales, the chance of a clap of thunder in a few spots, however some places more inland escaping, and a mostly dry and bright afternoon for the Midlands, just the odd scattered shower here. Highs on Sunday a cool 14c for Cardigan Bay coasts, 16c for brighter inland lowland Wales, and a pleasant 18c over the Midlands. Showers dying out tonight and with clearing skies a chilly night, lowest readings around 5c, so not quite a ground frost. Relatively low pressure again over the UK for Monday so further showers for many areas, Wales especially likely to see some heavy ones, a rather cloudy day too with limited sunny intervals. A decidedly cool day, especially where there are plentiful of showers. A chill NW breeze on Monday highs just 13 to 16c, well below the September average (18 or 19c). High pressure is ridging into NW Britain on Tuesday, whilst a low pressure system develops over the North Sea this giving a cool northerly wind over Wales and England. Wales has a mostly dry day with sunny spells on Tuesday, most of the Midlands likewise, although rain affecting Eastern England could push into the east of this region as we go through the day. For most though, largley dry on Tuesday, cool though, highs between 15 and 18c.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Any rain dies out over the Midlands on Tuesday night, with clearer skies out west, a chilly night lows 6 to 9c. The ridge has extended across the UK for Wednesday, set to be one of the better days of the week. A dry and bright day, some decent sunny spells, warmer too, temperatures up to at least the average at 17 to 20c. Clearing skies and a rather cool night to follow. High pressure does not last as the ridge topples away south during Thursday permitting fronts to cross northern UK. The Midlands could well manage another mainly dry day out of it however, while more cloud and a little light rain or drizzle at times for Wales. A warm airmass for Thursday, with moist, rather humid Atlantic air, so given any sunny breaks the temperature will shoot up. Sunny intervals should occur for at least the Midlands and where the potential is there for 24c to be reached, while more generally expect 19 to 22c. We should still be within the warm sector through Thursday night, a mild one no lower than 13c, and by which time a more definite rain band could be strung out across Wales and the Midlands, so quite a wet night in places, pulses of heavy rain possible.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]This rain does not herald a full blown Atlantic unsettled spell as yet though, as the low is centred well to our north in the vicinity of Iceland and high pressure is never so far to our SW. For Friday, the cold front attempts to clear through taking further rain across many places. Should the front develop a wave it could slow down and produce quite a wet day on Friday, or - it may travel though more swiftly with a brighening fresher afternoon, at least for more northern parts of our regions. The usual caveats then applicable to Friday and the weekend, but another transient ridge could give a fine if coolish Saturday, followed by a trough, some cloud, wind and rain for next Sunday - changeable in other words![/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=184445:ecmt850.048 Showery cool Mon.png][attachment=184446:ecmt850.072 LE HW m dry cool Tue.png][attachment=184447:PPVJ89 m dry cool Tue.png][attachment=184455:h850t850eu warmer dry bright Wed.png][attachment=184456:metslp.120 R topples TR into W.png][attachment=184448:h850t850eu m dry Thu.png][attachment=184449:ecmt850.120 WS Thu some drizzle west.png][attachment=184450:ecmt850.144 cooler drying Fri.png][attachment=184451:ukprec wet in places Fri or clearing sooner.png][attachment=184452:ecmt850.168 fine Sat rain Sun.png][attachment=184453:h850t850eu fine R Sat r cool.png][attachment=184457:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=184458:prcpWarwickshire low spikes not so wet a week.png][attachment=184459:prmslAbertawe~-~Swansea.png][/size][/font]
  2. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Cold and dry with frost and local fog to mid week then milder and changeable with some rain[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3][b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Very mild with some rain and drizzle up to last Tuesday night, Snowdonia receiving several inches of rain over a couple of days, although only a little rain for most of the Midlands. 13 or 14c reached in places both Monday and Tuesday with nights staying in double figures too, notably mild for late December due to air of Tropical origin. A cold front brought cooler though not especially cold weather on Christmas Eve which lasted through to Boxing Day giving some slight frosts making it feel more Seasonal. Much of the north Midlands had a snowfall on Friday evening, worst over the Derbyshire peaks where up to one foot fell, for most though no more than a brief fall and temporary covering. In contrast at the same time a mild sector passed over SW Wales and the south Midlands during Friday evening, 11c reached across Pembrokeshire at the same time Derbyshire was very snowy! This weekend has been quite cold too with wintry showers for many areas and further night frost and ice. Temperatures Saturday night as low as -4c in places such as Llanwnnen.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3][b]The week ahead[/b][/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]This week will see plenty of dry and cold weather with frosty nights as an anticyclone crosses southern UK. More unsettled to end the week with some rain or showers at times but still quite a bit of dry weather. Sunday morning is frosty, with shade frost persisting for many all day, high pressure over Ireland feeding down rather cold northerly winds. Mostly sunny for Sunday highs 4 to 6c, below average. More of the same really through to New Years Eve with the anticyclone transferring SE across southern UK and into the Continent. A chilly but dry 3 or 4 days to come seeing out 2014, sharp frosts and foggy in places by night, but for many some sunshine by day. However some areas of fog will stick into afternoons some days locally, where this happens temperatures not getting above zero, generally though maxima in the 3 to 5c range, and milder along west Wales coasts. As mentioned, quite hard frosts to come until mid week, widely getting down between -2 and -4c, with lowest readings of -6 or -7c possibly for usual spots. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Changes underway as we go through New Years Eve as the high recedes into the Continent, and a SW flow becomes established across northern and western UK. For most though a similar picture of dry bright chilly weather after frost on Wednesday, fog persistent over parts of the Midlands. It should be dry in most places for the New Year festivities except perhaps for NW Wales where a little light rain or drizzle may arrive by midnight. Milder on Wednesday night across WW but another frost likely for the Midlands. Uncertainties on the extent and nature of the breakdown for later in the week, but it turns milder and more unsettled during New Years Day into Friday as SW winds sweep across all areas. Maxima by this stage between 8 and 11c, mildest out west, rain at times but still some dry conditions at times too. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Next weekend and the weather looks changeable, we may well see a temporary ridge at some stage giving a dry cold interlude, but on the whole rather unsettled with some further rain or showers about, these wintry especially over hills.[/size][/font]
  3. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
    [b]Headline: Becoming mostly dry and rather cold with some frosty and foggy nights[/b][/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]
    [b]Last weeks highlights[/b]

    Frosty nights early last week, Sunday night registered a low of -4.8c here at Llanwnnen, which, as occasionally happens, was colder than any of the official UK weather stations, Pembrey Sands (Carms) being the coldest of these at min -3.1c along with Benson (Oxon). A lovely sunny Monday followed but it felt a bit more like Winter, 7c the high here inland compared with 11.6c at Milford Haven on the coast - the mildest spot in the UK. Monday night even colder for many places, the -5.2c here seems to have been coldest in the UK again! However I only need delve back into the record books one year to find a colder November night, that of 23/11/13 was a chilling -7.3c in our garden. At Bablake, Coventry -2.6c did though make it the coldest November night for 4 years (-8.5c there during the severe late November 2010 cold spell) [url="http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/"]Bablake WS[/url] Freezing fog quite widespread on Monday night especially over the Midlands, the slow clearance of this restricted daytime temperatures to just 3c at Sennybridge and 4c at Coleshill Tuesday. Mild weather returned by the end of last week though, on Friday Pembrey got up to 13.7c, even milder Saturday when Trawsgoed near Aberystwyth was the warm spot at max 15.6c with plenty of sunshine! Rainfall amounts generally rather negligible last week although the Midlands was damp at times.

    November 2014 has been a mild month, indeed 2014 could be the warmest year in the 350 year Central England Temperature (CET) series - only a cold December would scupper this! Rainfall has been quite variable from place to place during November; the wettest regions being Pembrokeshire and parts of the Midlands with respect to the average, with Anglesey and the Aberystwyth area having quite a dry month. Some monthly totals with % of average:

    Llanwnnen 139mm 97%
    Aberporth 122mm 112%
    Trawsgoed 108mm 76%
    Pembrey Sands 159mm approx 129%
    [b]Milford Haven 186mm approx 141%[/b]
    [b]Valley, Anglesey 60mm approx 58%[/b]
    Coventry 87.4mm 150%
    Church Lawford 68.4mm 113%
    Long Lawford 71mm 127%
    Pershore 99mm 175%
    Little Rissington: 95mm 125%


    [b]The week ahead[/b]

    Early December looks to be shaping up mostly dry but colder as successive high pressure areas affect the UK, with us now into being Winter any clear skies will readily lead to sharp night frosts and the formation of thick fog patches, this can be reluctant to lift with the sun now at its weakest. Often fairly cold then looking ahead, but little sign of pronounced cold weather as yet! Sunday is another dry, mild day with sunny spells and just light winds, highs 11 to 13c, and the last time we are likely to experience such mildness for several weeks at least! Clear intervals tonight could give localised ground frost and fog patches, lowest temperatures 1 or 2c. Generally dry but somewhat cooler on Monday, variable and rather extensive cloud, misty for parts of the Midlands, maxima 8 to 10c, a few places catching a drizzly shower perhaps. During Monday night a weakening cold front moves down from the NW this bringing some rain to West Wales (WW) around midnight. Only a little rain left on the front as it arrives across the Midlands by dawn Tuesday and some places remain dry here. Lows Monday night 3 to 5c.

    The front lingers but fizzles out over the East Midlands during Tuesday, so rather cloudy and cool for the East Midlands still with a little rain or drizzle in places. Elsewhere a dry day with sunny intervals, decent sunny spells even for WW. Colder with a keen NE breeze highs 6 to 8c. By Tuesday night we are under a ridge from off the Atlantic, clear spells and a widespread frost lowest temperatures -3c or -4c for prone spots of Wales, but more generally around zero. Perhaps some mist and fog patches too by morning. High pressure over the UK on Wednesday, dry with some sunshine, WW most favoured with shelter from the NE breeze. Rather cold maxima on Wednesday generally of 5 to 7c but 9c possible for parts of the WW coast where it may be quite a nice sunny day! Frost and local fog develops once again on Wednesday night given clear periods, down below zero fairly widely, again -3c even -4c for the coldest spots.

    Still a dry chilly picture Thursday too, sunny spells if you are fortunate, mistly and cold if not! Highs for most in the 5 to 8c range and with light winds again. Widespread slight frost and fog in places once more Thursday night, -3c possible for inland Wales. Friday may see a weak cold front crossing the UK from the NW but it is doubtful this will produce much if any rain, a rather cold day once more should be expected with plenty of cloud. The next belt of high pressure looks like extending across southern Britain next weekend, so the mostly dry weather continues with further frost and fog by night. HIghs still below average so expect no better than 5 to 7c, colder where mist and fog lingers into the afternoon, with sunny spells where it clears or did not form in the first place.
    [attachment=231344:PPVG89 m dry r cloudy MO.png][attachment=231345:PPVJ89 m dry colder Tu.png][attachment=231346:ecmt850.072 m dry bright colder Tu.png][attachment=231347:PPVL89 dry r cold WE.png][attachment=231350:h850t850eu dry r cold WE frost local fog.png][attachment=231348:ecmt850.096 dry chilly frost and fog WE TH.png][attachment=231349:PPVO89 dry bright W cloudier Mid TH.png][attachment=231351:ecmt850.168 dry weekend night frost and fog.png][attachment=231352:h850t850eu dry chilly weekend fr fo likely.png][attachment=231353:prcpWest~Midlands m dry week.png][attachment=231354:prmslWest~Midlands mostly H all week.png][attachment=231355:t850West~Midlands r cold after MO.png][attachment=231356:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]
  4. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Some rain at times but plenty of dry weather, rather benign[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A fairly mild breezy week gone with rain or showers at times, especially across Wales as is typical! A mostly dry start to last week for the Midlands in particular, not much rain until the latter part of the week, even then overall the week was not a wet one for the Midlands. Temperature wise consistently on the mild side especially by night - bar some ground frost at the very beginning and again across West Wales (WW) on Saturday night. Mumbles, Swansea reached a very mild 15c Thursday, a day on which many places exceeded 13c. Friday another very mild day with some sunny spells too, Mona on Anglesey attained 14.6c, with most places getting above 13c - it had been 13.3c at midnight here at Llanwnnen! This weekend, in spite of the proximity of low pressure, has been mostly dry, and for (WW) bright, although cooler for the Midlands with a NE breeze.

    [b]The week ahead[/b]

    Some rain at times in the coming week but with quite a lot of dry and benign if rather cloudy weather. No Autumn storms on the way just yet! Sunday afternoon is dry with some brightness for WW although with winds off the North Sea its a rather dull and dank day for the Midlands, with drizzly showers possible in places too. Highs Sunday ranging from 10 to 13c, best for SW Wales. During Sunday night a low moves into eastern England from the Continent, its associated frontal system bringing rain to the Midlands soon after midnight and onto WW by dawn. With all the cloud no lower than 5 to 7c tonight. Monday is largely overcast with further drizzly rain at times, more especially during the morning, although perhaps some late brightness for SW Wales before sunset. Quite a cool day highs of 8 to 10c, although a 12c where it brightens over Pembrokeshire is possible. Mostly cloudy on Monday night still a little drizzle in places, but largely dry, lows 4 to 6c.

    Sunny intervals should appear for Tuesday which is a dry day bar the odd isolated shower, maxima of 9 to 11c bang on the mid November average with a moderate SE breeze. A dry night with clear intervals but no frost follows. A low in the Atlantic well west of Ireland is sending fronts our way on Wednesday however these should weaken considerably as they head towards a Scandinavian blocking high. Early brightness for the Midlands but Wednesday is a mostly cloudy day and rain soon arrives after dawn into SW Wales and edges slowly NE. Rain and drizzle, generally light, on and off much of the afternoon for Wales then, but the front tends to die over the Midlands so probably only a little rain here, and the East Midlands may get away with a completely dry day with a few sunny intervals. Familiar highs of 9 to 11c once more for Wednesday, but the SE wind could be fresh for a times over Wales during the day so making it feel chilly. Any rain and drizzle left over on Wednesday evening dies away overnight, plenty of cloud and no frost, no lower than 5 or 6c.

    The high to our NE exerts a reasonably strong ridge across northern Britain by Thursday which should be a dry day for many with some sunny intervals. A touch milder at 10 to 12c but still a that keen SE breeze. For Friday and much of next weekend it looks as though the Scandinavian blocking high should continue to keep Atlantic influences at bay, so plenty more mostly dry weather seem likely, although we still get weakened fronts into western UK from time to time, so a little rain may occur at times and probably with a good deal of cloud for the most part. Temperatures next weekend should be up to average (around 10c) although a minority of the models do bring in cooler air and given that particular outcome there would be a frost risk. We must also be aware that as recent as yesterday the GFS was suggesting a rather wet weekend, such are the variations in model output a week hence!
    [attachment=229930:PPVG89 drizzle esp am r cool.png][attachment=229931:PPVJ89 m dry Tu.png][attachment=229932:ecmt850.072 m dry Tu.png][attachment=229933:PPVL89 some rain pm WW m dry Mids WE.png][attachment=229934:h850t850eu light rain Wales m dry Mids WE block.png][attachment=229935:PPVO89 m dry some sun TH.png][attachment=229936:h850t850eu m dry TH.png][attachment=229937:ecmt850.120 TH dry.png][attachment=229938:ecmt850.168 m dry cooling weekend.png][attachment=229939:h850t850eu often dry ave weekend.png][attachment=229940:prcpWest~Midlands little rain times.png][attachment=229941:prmslWest~Midlands H dry TH FR at least.png][attachment=229942:t850West~Midlands mild or cool latter week.png][attachment=229943:mgram_Birmingham plenty of dry weather this week.png][/font][/color]
  5. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Mostly dry and quite warm (particularly Midlands) with some sunny spells; more unsettled next weekend[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Although another mostly dry week gone, all of us did see a little rain midweek, the light fall on Tuesday 23rd ending a 22 day drought here at Llanwnnen. Rather a lot of cloud at times too last week, for West Wales in particular due to the winds coming from the west for a change, although there were some sunny spells especially early in the week. The Midlands saw the driest, brightest and warmest of the weather. Pershore in Worcestershire topped a rather warm 20c Thursday with sunny intervals while West Wales only managed a drizzly 16 or 17c. Friday was warm more widely over South Wales and the Midlands, with some sunny intervals and 21c 70f reached in a few spots. September is going to end up one of the driest on record, for many places since the exceptionally dry Sept 1959. Here at Llanwnnen, provided it does not rain appreciably in the last few days of the month (unlikely), it will be the[b] driest of any month in my 9 year record[/b] (April 2007 14.4mm to beat) and the [b]driest September on record[/b] too (beating 11mm at nearby Llanybydder in Sept 1986). Currently we have had just 7.7mm while some places have been even drier, Coventry for example has only received 4.8mm. [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]The week ahead[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]We continue in the recurring high pressure pattern into the start of October so plenty more dry (although not completely dry) and mild/ warm weather in the week ahead. As with the past few weeks variable cloud, sunshine amounts hard to guess but we should all get at least one or two reasonably sunny, warm days this week, more especailly over the Midlands, while some other days could remain overcast but mild. Mild once we are into October is anything above 16c really, and to get 20c is certainly warm for the time of the year and as we shall experience on several days this week, especially over the Midlands! With the mild air no risk of frost in the coming week, but October will inevitably see the first widespread ground frosts, at least.. eventually.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Saturday night was very mild many places remaining above 13 or 14c. Variable cloud with some warm sunny spells on Sunday, light winds, maxima feeling very pleasant at 19 to 21c, the odd 22c over the Midlands. Just the chance this warmth sparking a shower over the Midlands late afternoon into this evening. A few heavy showers overnight too affecting the Midlands but most parts stay dry, and where skies clear fog patches forming, lows 9 to 12c generally. A weak showery trough crossing the Midlands and slowly moving away NE on Monday, most places have another warm and dry day with sunny spells, but the odd heavy shower scattered about, perhaps with an isolated thunderstorm, affecting the Midlands in particular. Maxima on Monday between 19 and 21c so well above the average for the very end of September (15 to 17c) and only gentle breezes. Again with clearing skies, fog patches form locally Monday night. Relatively high pressure over southern Britain on Tuesday so another generally dry day with some sunshine, best of this for the Midlands, as West Wales (WW) is likely to see a cloudier afternoon as the SW breeze freshens. Highs Tuesday 20c Midlands and 16 to 18c WW. [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A series of weakening Atlantic fronts cross the UK on Wednesday, these expected to bring some light rain and drizzle to Wales in particular, but most of the Midlands getting another dry if rather cloudy day, just the odd light shower for the West Midlands. Highs Wednesday ranging from a warm 20c over the brighter East Midlands to 15c over damp Snowdonia. Some clear spells may result in a foggy dawn in places Thursday especially over Wales and the Marches. High pressure then rapidly builds over England and Wales on Thursday killing off the dying fronts left within it. Some vestigial areas of cloud then, but with sunny spells eventually breaking through and pleasantly mild at 16 to 19c. With high pressure still in place over the SE Friday should be generally dry again too, quite warm with sunny spells for the Midlands, 20c in places here, but perhaps more cloud and only fleeting sunny intervals for WW with a freshening SW breeze here too, so maxima restricted to, a still though mild, 16 to 18c.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Pressure does look set to drop next weekend and so we should expect the fine dry weather to break down, all of us seeing some rain or showers then but still some dry spells and no washout. A changeable and cooler weekend then should sum it up, although the Midlands may hold onto warmth for Saturday, so the possibilty of another 20c here. As we move into the second week of October the weather looks like turning more decidedly unsettled and at times wet, although it should still be warm sometimes![/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=225693:PPVG89 warm m dry odd sh.png][attachment=225694:PPVJ89 dry bright warm Mids.png][attachment=225695:h850t850eu wk fronts little rain WE.png][attachment=225696:ecmt850.096 dry bright Th.png][attachment=225697:ecmt850.168 changeable weekend.png][attachment=225698:h850t850eu changeable cooling wend.png][attachment=225699:prcpWarwickshire Mids showers Mo breakdown WEND.png][attachment=225700:prmslWarwickshire h but falls WEND.png][attachment=225701:t850Warwickshire warm week cooler by SU.png][attachment=225702:mgram_Birmingham mild m dry week.png][/font][/color]
  6. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Mostly dry and quite warm with sunny spells, especially for South Wales and the Midlands, cloudier perhaps a little rain affecting NW Wales at times[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Highlights of last week:[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A generally dry and warm week gone. West Wales was favoured for sunshine and warmth last week due to the easterly winds, with cloudier weather affecting the Midlands in particular at times and so restricting temperatures here. A very warm, rather sultry Thursday saw the highest readings of the week, and for many places since early August, with Whitechurch, Pembrokeshire best at 25.7c, then Llanelli 25.4c, Llanwnnen 24.4c, Aberporth 24.2c, Pembrey 24.1c, Wellesbourne 23.7c, Trawscoed and Pershore 23.3c, Coventry and Church Lawford 23.0c. Warm nights too for much of last week and on Thursday night Mumbles, Milford Haven and Trawsgoed did not fall below 17c which is more like the average daytime figure for September![/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Bar a few showers much of the week remained dry until scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday gave localised torrential falls but again some areas missed these completely. Parts of Ceredigion have had no measurable rain at all for the first 20 days of September including Trawsgoed and Llanwnnen and the countryside is now hard and dry, the few spits of drizzle not enough register in the gauge. The legacy of storms over the south on Thursday night was a cloudy, murky cooler Friday especially for the Midlands where for many it only rose a couple of degrees from the overnight values to just 17c or so. Saturday too a cooler cloudier day for most, although the Carmarthenshire coast was quite bright and warm still. [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]The week ahead: [/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Amazingly the predominantly dry weather looks set to continue for the rest of the month - could the Lampeter area have a completely rainless month for the first time since February 1986? Me thinks some drizzly weak fronts this week will prevent this..Problems with some of the models this weekend means less data to go on - but we will try anyway and the general theme is for plenty of dry and at times rather warm weather, North and West Wales having the most chance of dampness at times from late Tuesday onwards, but never particularly wet even here. A weak cold front has shifted the cloud leaving a lovely sunny Sunday, just some patchy Cumulus this afternoon. Temperatures just above average reaching 17 to 19c. Clear, calm and cool tonight, 2c in the Marches and mid Wales is close to a grass frost. High pressure centred over SW England on Monday so another lovely day, mostly sunny and fairly warm highs 18 to 20c, even a 21c here and there. Clear periods but not quite as cool for Monday night. High pressure holds over the south on Tuesday but with a weakening cold front arriving into NW Wales later. A dry bright but rather breezy day for South Wales and the Midlands but cloudier for NW Wales and later Cardigan Bay with a little light rain or drizzle in places but it should be dying out as it moves SE into the high. Maxima a rather warm 20c for parts of the Midlands on Tuesday but 16 or 17c for Snowdonia where it may well turn out a cloudy and damp afternoon. This front means a more cloudy night so milder no lower than 9 or 10c and the odd spit of drizzle in places.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Ridging into the SW on Wednesday keeps it generally dry and bright, however a warm front is crossing northern Britain and so rather cloudy for NW Wales perhaps a smidgen of rain or drizzle from midday onwards. The westerly wind freshens through the afternoon, highs ranging from 19c over the Midlands to 15c for NW Wales if cloudy and damp, so feeling chilly here on Wednesday. We are in a warm sector for Wednesday night, so cloudy, mild and breezy, drizzle in places, chiefly for Welsh hills, temperatures no lower than 12c. High pressure still close enough to our SW Thursday to kill off the rain fronts passing to our north, perhaps a lot of cloud for Cardigan Bay and NW Wales, the odd spit of drizzle, but for South Wales and the Midlands it brightens to sunny spells afternoon and becomes warm at 20 to 22c, compared with 17c for NW Wales. Quite a fresh west to NW breeze Thursday though. Again on Friday high pressure should be close enough by to weaken any fronts that may reach southern Britain, so the generally dry but rather breezy theme continues and where it brightens 20 or 21c is achievable, although once more NW Wales likely to be cooler and cloudier still with the west winds blowing. [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Pressure look set to build over the UK again next weekend so apart from the odd shower it looks dry and bright with temperatures at least attaining the average for the end of September (16 to 18c) so feeling pleasant in any sunshine.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=225253:PPVG89 (1) sunny r w Mo.png][attachment=225254:PPVJ89 dry bright esp Mids Tu little rain pm NW Wales.png][attachment=225255:PPVM89 m dry bright We.png][attachment=225256:PPVO89 TH m dry bright warm Mids.png][attachment=225257:h850t850eu m dry weekend too.png][attachment=225258:prcpWest~Midlands m dry week.png][attachment=225259:t850West~Midlands r warm week overall.png][attachment=225260:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]
  7. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Very warm and mostly dry with sunny spells; increasing chance of thundery showers from mid week.[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Again, as has been the case with much of this rather fine Summer to date, there was plenty of reasonably dry weather during the past 7 days, Llanwnnen one of the drier areas having just 8mm rain in total last week. The much heralded 'Spanish Plume' arrived with vivid lightning displays and thunderstorms on Thursday night/ early Friday, however these did not produce much rain except very locally. Thursday and Friday saw the highest temperatures of 2014 so far for most places, highest temperature readings of the week include 26.3c Llanwnnen and 26.7c Pershore on Thursday, 28.4c Coleshill, 28.4c Coventry, 27.9c Church Lawford and 26.2c Trawsgoed on Friday. These temperatures well down though on the 32.3c (90f) recorded at Gravesend, Kent on Friday, which was the hottest of the year so far for the UK. Nights were warm and sticky too to end the week, on Thursday night the temperature fell to just 17.8c here at Llanwnnen, some 7c above average minima for July, and the warmest night recorded here in the past 9 years. Some other parts of Wales were even warmer with 19.5c Pembrey Sands and 19.1c Trawscoed being the 'lows'. Widespread thunderstorms over the Midlands on Saturday, a few for parts of Wales too. These gave locally very heavy falls of rain and with hail in places, and caused flooding in such places as Gloucester, Shropshire, Nuneaton and Coventry. Around an inch (25mm) of rain falling in one hour in some places, Westonbirt, Gloucestershire the wettest spot having 79mm (over 3 inches) rain on Saturday! These storms did herald cooler weather on Saturday when Cardigan Bay coasts did not exceed 19c.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The weather has not though changed to an unsettled pattern as yet, and this coming week sees the return of fine and very warm, perhaps even quite hot conditions, although there will be a few showers or thunderstorms about too in places on some days especially towards the end of the week. Sunday, and the west is in cooler air while the warm, thundery air is never far from the Midlands. Sunny intervals today, so warming up nicely, some heavy showers and thunderstorms scattered about this afternoon, localised and mostly only affecting to the east of Birmingham, but again, locally will cause flooding. For West Wales (WW) we should escape with a largely dry day, just the slim chance of a shower here. Highs on Sunday 21 to 24c, so rather warm, but fresher feeling than of late, except over the East Midlands where it is still quite humid.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Monday sees a ridge of high pressure building in from the SW, so a mainly dry day, just the outside chance of a light shower. Sunny spells and maxima a warm 22 to 25c, cooler for many coasts where nearer 20c. A dry night with clear spells and lows between 9 and 13c so comfortable. High pressure over Scandinavia from Tuesday with a feed of very warm easterly winds from Europe. Relatively high pressure over the UK again on Tuesday itself, although a weak front bringing areas of cloud and a few afternoon showers to the Midlands in particular, for most places another dry warm day though, highs widely 23 to 26c even along Cardigan Bay, the NE breeze more noticeable over the East Midlands. Wednesday is similarly fine day with further spells of sunshine, sunny even for the west. A very warm day, maxima pushing 80f reaching 25 to 27c, perhaps West Wales warmest due to the easterly breeze and hence the air has travelled furthest over land to reach here. Just the odd shower or thunderstorm being set off by the heat later in the afternoon or during the evening over the Welsh hills. A mild largely dry night follows, lows mostly 12 to 15c.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The very warm Continental ENE flow continues for Thursday and Friday too, further generally dry days with sunny periods and highs in the 24 to 28c range, some coasts pleasantly cooler with sea breezes. Dry for the most part, but with a scattering of sharp showers or thunderstorms getting going for the afternoons and evenings. A greater chance of seeing a thunderstorm on Thursday or Friday it has to be said, even the hint of a thundery plume showing on some models come Friday. Naturally model differences for as far in the future as next weekend, some showing a continuation of the mostly dry and very warm weather (ECM) whilst others eventually turn it cooler and more unsettled (GFS). However Saturday at least should see a continuation of the very warm weather with scattered thundery showers.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=219599:PPVG89 (1) m dry warm MO.png][attachment=219600:PPVJ89 m dry warm poss sh Mids TU.png][attachment=219601:ecmt850.072 VW m dry TU WE.png][attachment=219602:PPVL89 dry VW WE.png][attachment=219603:PPVO89 VW few thundery sh TH.png][attachment=219604:h850t850eu VW few thundery sh TH.png][attachment=219605:ecmt850.144 some storms TH FR.png][attachment=219606:h850t850eu heat thunder chances FR.png][attachment=219607:ecmt850.168 m dry VW weekend.png][attachment=219608:h850t850eu warm more unsettled weekend.png][attachment=219609:prmslWarwickshire fine toi mid week then thundery chances.png][attachment=219610:t850Warwickshire warm to hot week.png][attachment=219611:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]
  8. TonyH
    [size=4][font=arial][b][b]Headline: Mostly dry with sunny spells, becoming very warm but local thunderstorms; cooler unsettled weekend[/b] [/b][/font][/size]

    [size=4][font=arial][color=rgb(0,0,0)]Although there were some showers last week, overall it was another reasonably dry week. Tuesday saw fairly widespread showers, but even then some areas missed them completely, not so the Aldridge area of the West Midlands where there torrential thunderstorms caused quite serious but highly localised flooding. Temperatures close to average although rather cool at times early last week with the NW breeze. The East Midlands narrowly escaped a soaking on Thursday, with the nearby Fenlands having a cool wet day, while places such as Leicester and Nottingham just 40 miles west had a warm sunny one! Highs on a generally warm Thursday then included 24.7c at Pershore, 24.3c Church Lawford and 22.5c Mumbles. Saturday was the warmest day of the year so far over much of the Midlands, with maxima between 24 and 26c, West Wales in contrast was cloudy and drizzly with temperatures below 20c. Noticeably milder by night this weekend, it has not dropped below 12c in most places, and last night some spots stayed above 15c.[/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]It has cooled off for today Sunday, but the warmth is set to return this week, especially over the Midlands where 27c 81f is likely come Thursday, but we get some thunderstorms in places before it cools off in time for the weekend. Sunday afternoon and a scattering of showers over the Midlands, but mostly dry for West Wales with sunny intervals. Highs between 18 and 21c. Dry and fresher tonight minima around 10c. A transient ridge of high pressure moves away during Monday with weak fronts moving into Wales, this means a largely dry day with sunny intervals for the Midlands and maxima around 22c, so quite warm here, but after a bright start clouding over for West Wales (WW) even with a little rain or drizzle about during the late afternoon and evening, highs nearer 19 or 20c here. High pressure building to our south on Tuesday but still some weak weather fronts to contend with. Variable cloud as a consequence of these fronts and perhaps the odd spot of rain or even shower popping off, but with sunny breaks developing as we go through the day. Temperatures a rather humid 21 or 22c, even a 24c where decent sunny spells occur. A mild night to follow, no lower than 13c. [/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]A decent ridge of high pressure over southern Britain on Wednesday which is another largely dry day, more in the way of sunshine too, so a warm day everywhere, highs between 22 and 25c, best for the Midlands, and cooler along some coasts with sea breezes. Thursday could be the warmest day of the week with a drag of very warm, humid air from off the Continent. Plenty of sunshine and temperatures responding well with the ambient heat, so maxima in the 24 to 28c range, hottest over the Midlands. Some sharp showers and localised thunderstorms breaking out later in the day and especially for the evening as a heat low approaches from Spain or France. Some of us seeing flashes of lightning or catching a storm then during Thursday night, along with some very heavy bursts of rain. Quite a sticky night too, no lower than 15c for towns, cities and some coasts. [/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)]The storms may not have succeeded in clearing the air though as it looks like another warm or very warm day on Friday. There will be sunny spells and some further showers and thunderstorms, but some places escape dry as is typical in showery set ups. Highs somewhere between 22 and 27c on Friday. It does though cool down by Saturday and the weekend looks quite unsettled with low pressure close by our NW, so cooler and breezy with showers and some longer spells of rain. Still rather warm for the Midlands perhaps next Saturday but rather cool everywhere by Sunday highs of 18 to 21c. Looking further out and the rest of July appears somewhat unsettled too but warm at times, so not so bad![/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218551:PPVG89 dry warm Mids drizzle pm WW MON.png][attachment=218552:PPVJ89 m dry sunny ints TU r warm.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218553:ecmt850.072 H builds over S TU.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218554:PPVL89 m dry warm WE.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218555:ecmt850.096 m dry warm We.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218556:PPVO89 very warm TH.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218561:ukmaxtemp very warm or hot TH.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218557:ecmt850.120 hot humid thundery showers later TH to FR.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218558:ecmt850.144 warm showery FR.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218559:h850t850eu warm showery FR.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218560:ecmt850.168 weekend cooler showers lsr.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218562:prcpWarwickshire unsettled FR SA.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218563:prmslWarwickshire more unsettled by next weekend.png][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][attachment=218564:t850West~Midlands mostly a warm week.png][attachment=218565:mgram_Birmingham.png][/color][/color][/font][/size]
  9. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Showery at first; mostly dry and sometimes warm from Wednesday[/b]

    Only small amounts of rain early last week but then Wednesday was a washout for many places. Llanwwnen getting 24mm and Church Lawford 22mm in 24 hours, while some parts saw closer to 2 inches (50mm). Wednesday also a very cool day, parts of Wales remained below 10c all day, quite unusual this for June, the high here being 11.7c when it brightened during the evening, still the coolest June day for a number of years. Things brightened considerably on Thursday, and warmed up on Friday, 22.7c the max here at Llanwnnen and even 21.8c on the coast at Aberporth, similarly warm for the Midlands too. Thunderstorms were fairly widespread early Saturday morning, particularly for Mid Wales and the West Midlands with heavy downpours too. Lightning as close as a mile with loud thunder here just before 0600. There a few further storms later on Saturday, especially over the West Midlands. Friday night was the warmest of the nascent Summer to date getting no lower than 13c here.

    Quite a fine, reasonably Summery week in prospect, plenty of dry and at times bright weather and often fairly warm too, after that is, some rain or showers still until Tuesday. Sunday is a fairly dry and quite warm but breezy day, the Midlands getting into the low 70's F ( 21c or 22c) and close on 20c for inland West Wales (WW). A few sharp showers about, especially for Wales, but essentially dry over the Midlands this afternoon. Largely dry tonight too bar the odd Welsh shower. Perhaps more in the way of showers on Monday with the chance of thunder especially around midday, tending to become drier with sunny spells through later in the afternoon. Quite warm again, highs around 19c for WW and 22c for the East Midlands. Low pressure to our west then edges closer to Ireland during Monday night so further showers and longer spells of rain arrive in the early hours of Tuesday. Unsettled on Tuesday with the low crossing NW UK, showery, some heavy and thundery downpours about, highs down at 16 to 19c with a brisk SW wind. The SE Midlands (Northants/ Oxon) perhaps faring better on Tuesday with only a few showers, by virtue of being closer to high pressure over France.

    High pressure then builds over southern Britain on Wednesday, so a dry, fine day with lighter winds. Not necessarily a sunny day though as there could well be stubborn layers of cloud much of the afternoon and just sunny intervals from time to time. Temperatures close to the June average at 19 to 21c, cooler on the coast though with the onshore breezes. A ridge of high pressure persists across SE UK on Thursday but with some weak Atlantic fronts affecting northern and western parts. Dry with some sunny spells for most places, especially the Midlands where it will reach a warm 22 or 23c, but there may be more in the way of cloud for WW afternoon even with a little rain or drizzle for hills and coasts. 18c on WW coasts, 20c inland WW the expected highs on Thursday. High pressure pulls more to the SW of Ireland on Friday, allowing a cooler NW feed of air. Still a largely dry and quite warm day though for the Midlands with sunny spells and maxima around 21c, although we may feel the effects of the NW breeze over WW restricting highs to below 18c here and bringing cloudier skies. The outside chance of a light shower for few places otherwise dry on Friday.

    Most models keep relatively high pressure over the UK next weekend too, although with differences relating to intensity, positioning, etc. Suffice to say a lot of dry weather still and temperatures look close to average.with maxima say in the 18 to 22c range, we may be seeing something of a NE breeze however, which would tend to render the East Midlands coolest and WW warmest.
    [attachment=215638:PPVG89 (1) showery r warm Mo.png][attachment=215639:ecmt850.048 some showers Mo.png][attachment=215641:ecmt850.072 showers lsr cooler r windy Tu.png][attachment=215641:ecmt850.072 showers lsr cooler r windy Tu.png][attachment=215642:PPVL89 dry r warm Wed.png][attachment=215643:ecmt850.096 dry rw We.png][attachment=215644:PPVO89 m dry warm Th dr poss WW pm.png][attachment=215645:ecmt850.120 fine warm Th.png][attachment=215646:ecmt850.144 cooling m dry FR.png][attachment=215647:h850t850eu HSW cooler WW m dry Fr.png][attachment=215648:ecmt850.168 m dry weekend.png][attachment=215651:h850t850eu m dry weekend.png][attachment=215652:prcpWarwickshire m dry from WE.png][attachment=215653:mgram_Birmingham.png]
  10. TonyH
    [font=Helvetica]
    [b]Headline: Showery but quite warm; cool and mainly dry with frost from Friday[/b][/font]
    [font=Helvetica]
    A mild/ quite warm week gone for the most part although with some rain at times. Easter Monday was warm many places reaching 17 to 19c, and 19.9c in my garden although we were not in it! Friday saw variable conitions, much of the Midlands being cool and wet with over an inch of rain for parts of the South and West Midlands, Alvechurch south of Birmingham, receiving 38mm for the day. Some rain also for North Wales on Friday, but much of SW Wales mainly dry and quite mild - although parts of Carmarthenshire had heavy afternoon showers. Frequent heavy showers made for a soggy Saturday afternoon across much of SW Wales, Llanwnnen having 25mm rain in the 24 hours to midnight on Saturday. In contrast a mostly dry and bright Saturday for the Midlands, and Anglesey also did quite well, Mona reaching a pleasant 17c with few showers, Aberystwyth and northern Cardigan Bay too largely escaping.[/font]
    [font=Helvetica]
    More unsettled weather this week, further rain or showers at times, but with some warm sunny intervals between, so not a washout, and some areas escaping with a relatively dry week. Then cooler but becoming mostly dry by the weekend, some early May frost to look out for too over the weekend. A filling low is heading into the English Channel during Sunday, sunny intervals only serving to cause convective showers to develop this afternoon, some heavy, perhaps even with a rumble of thunder, as usual some areas missing the showers completely! Sunday highs close to the late April average at 13 to 15c, and much less wind than on Saturday. Most of the showers dying out this evening although Pembrokeshire could see a few through the night, no lower than 4c so no frost concerns. Very slack lowish pressure over the UK on Monday so light winds and where showers occur they will be slow- moving, hence prolonged giving a fair drop of rain locally, again with a chance of thunder for a few of us. Some places miss them however, West Wales perhaps most favoured for a mainly dry, bright day, and just the odd shower, while the Midlands sees more widespread shower activity through afternoon. Highs on Monday 15 to 17c, so given the light winds feeling quite warm in the sunny intervals. Clear spellls overnight Monday so turning chilly but we should just avoid a ground frost, generally remaining above 4c although with some mist and fog patches forming by dawn. A repeat performance on Tuesday of warm sunny intervals but further showers developing by midday, heavy in places, but some places stay dry, Cardigan Bay and Pembrokeshire more favoured to stay dry and bright on Tuesday. Maxima in the 16 to 19c range, pretty warm, only light winds again. A dry fairly mild night to follow. [/font]
    [font=Helvetica]
    Weak low pressure just west of Ireland on Wednesday, but little change on the weather, further pleasant sunny spells interspersed by some showers, heavy in places, just the chance of a longer spell of rain in the mix too through the day, but equally some areas escaping and remain mostly dry. Rather warm again, highs 16 to 19c away from Welsh coasts where there will be a cooling breeze. A trough of low pressure sinks down over Wales and Southern England during Thursday which sees further rain or showers about, especially in the morning, and it turns cooler, highs 12 to 14c anticipated. High pressure centred north of Scotland on Friday with cooler NE winds over the UK. Mostly dry and bright with sunny spells though, the odd shower affecting the Midlands but a dry day is expected for West Wales. Chilly breezes and highs only 11 to 13c. Friday night the wind eases and with clearing skies a widespread frost will form, many places down to zero and locally -2c. Rather cool but fine and dry for Saturday too, sunny periods and light winds, highs 12 to 14c so not too bad a day! Another frost may well form on Saturday night too, model discrepancies obviously at this range but with the latest GFS run showing a somewhat unlikely -5c for the Welsh Marches, whereas the ECM model brings in milder Atlantic air and we would largely avoid an air frost - one to be aware of however, with at least the potential for a damaging May frost next weekend. Tentatively, but next Sunday and the May Day Bank Holiday could be fine and dry too![/font]
  11. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Unsettled with heavy rain and strong winds at times, some drier, brighter interludes; continued flooding risk; temperatures around average[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A short- lived coldish snap last week, although here in West Wales it was only Thursday that was rather cold with highs of 3 to 5c. It stayed quite cold for a couple of days over the Midlands, and on Thursday many places here did not exceed 2c by day, and there was also a little sleet or snow in places. However contrary to expectations in the prevous guide, it was not overall a cold week but rather worked out around average, and with all the cloud we escaped frosts by and large. At least there were two virtually dry days here on Wednesday and Thursday, the first time this has happened since early December, to give a little respite from the rains, although the Midlands remained damp. Provisionally with a mean 183mm overall, January 2014 has been the wettest over Wales and England in a rainfall series dating back some 250 years! Parts of the southern England and Midlands having three times the average rainfall, at Coventry and Rugby it has been the wettest January since records began in the nineteenth century for example, whilst here at Llanwnnen merely the wettest since 2008 (238mm). January was also a mild month with no hard frosts and was snowless for many. Some monthly rainfall totals:[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Llanwnnen: 236.3mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Aberporth, Ceredigion: 201.8mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Llanelli: 239.5mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Capel Curig, Snowdonia: 391.4mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Coventry: 166.6mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Long Lawford, Rugby: 132.4mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Little Rissington, Cotswolds: 195mm approx[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Although we will see some drier interludes in the coming week the overall theme remains disturbed with a series of deep Atlantic lows with our name on them! This means the prospect of further bouts of heavy rain, localised flooding, and strong, possibly damaging winds. The worst of the weather looks to be during Tuesday night, Wednesday and again on Friday night. Little let up in the exceptionally wet weather well into February it seems, putting us on course for the wettest Winter of the past 250 years too perhaps.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Sunday is a respite day with only scattered showers these chiefly affecting parts of Wales, and all of us seeing some sunny spells. Pleasantly mild at 8 or 9c this afternoon with a bit of a SW breeze. There could be enough clear spells tonight for a ground frost over the Midlands but increasing southerly winds and cloud should prevent this for West Wales. A dry start to Monday for most although the rain soon arriving after dawn across Pembrokeshire. A slow moving band of rain, some heavy then gradually extends across all of SW Wales by midday and onto NW Wales early afternoon, there could be sleet or a little snow for the highest hills. Eventually a wet day then for West Wales, while the rain should not arrive until early evening for the Midlands, so essentially a dry day here with some bright spells. Highs on Monday around average for February at 6 to 8c. A fresh to strong south to SW wind everywhere. The rain clears West Wales by early evening but could linger over the East Midlands until well after midnight. Eventually some clear spells for all leading to a widespread ground frost, minima close to zero, although some showers affecting SW Wales overnight, so staying closer to 3c here. The Midlands not faring badly on Tuesday either, plenty of dry, bright weather and just the odd shower. Sunny intervals for West Wales too at least through the morning, but with occasional showers, some heavy with hail, and then clouding over afternoon. Highs on Tuesday of 6 to 8c again. We should all notice winds increasing through Tuesday afternoon as a significant depression approaches the south of Ireland. This deep low then crosses Ireland through Tuesday night with strong to gale force winds and heavy rain quickly spreading to all of Wales and the Midlands through the evening, and lasting well into the night, with localised flooding prospects by morning, as there could be an inch of rain falling in places - again just cold enough for sleet or snow for the tops of Snowdonia and the Brecon Beacons. The south to SW wind looks strong enough to cause some damage through Tuesday night and may reach 80mph for coasts and hills of Wales. Staying very windy throughout Wednesday with gales in places and showers or longer spells of rain, heavy at times with the chance of hail and thunder. This may well be another occasion when a tidal surge threatens western coasts, what with the strong SW to west winds, deep low pressure over Northern Ireland/ Scotland and decent sea fetch - the promenade was breached by the sea again at Aberystwyth on Saturday night. Maxima 7 to 9c on Wednesday, so quite mild. The Midlands becoming mostly dry on Wednesday night but showers keep going across much of West Wales, some heavy with hail and thunder still. At least the winds will be easing through the night, perhaps even enough for local ground frost by dawn Thursday. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Hopeful that Thursday proves to be another respite day of sunny spells, only a few showers and much less wind as we should be between low pressure systems. The Midlands could even be mostly dry on Thursday. There will be a southerly tracking low during Thursday which may threaten rain to the south as we go through the day, but present trends suggest this stays just to the south of Wales and the Midlands. However, the outside chance that this system tracks further north in which case Thursday could prove a wetter day than anticipated especially in the south of our regions. Highs of 6 to 8c with gentle winds. Reasonable chance of a widespread but slight frost on Thursday night, down just below zero in places as winds will be quite light and with clear periods. Yet another deep Atlantic low is heading our way on Friday it would seem, so although it may start dry and in places frosty, some showers are then likely, before eventually we all see further wet and windy weather by Friday evening or night, with gales in places. Temperatures close to average once more. This deep low crosses the UK during Saturday which is likely to be a disturbed day with showers and some longer spells of rain, along with strong to gale force winds. Showers may turn wintry, particularly for the hills as we progress through next weekend as it may turn a little colder but nothing drastic! The unsettled weather with minimal snow risk looks like continuing until at least the middle of February, so further wet weather at times maintaining flooding risks. No high pressure in sight, so very unlikely to get more than a dry day or two at a time.[/size][/font]
    [attachment=205949:PPVG89 wet Mon WW.png][attachment=205950:ecmt850.048 rain to all by Mon eve.png][attachment=205951:PPVJ89 respite Tue.png][attachment=205952:PPVK89 wet windy gales Tue night.png][attachment=205953:ecmt850.096 win dy showers lsr Wed.png][attachment=205954:PPVL89 windy showers lsr Wed.png][attachment=205955:ecmt850.120 respite low to FRance.png][attachment=205956:PPVO89 respite some showers less wind Th.png][attachment=205957:metslp.120 few showers Th.png][attachment=205962:ukprec rain stays to south.png][attachment=205958:ecmt850.144 becoming wet windy Fri.png][attachment=205959:ecmt850.144 becoming wet windy Fri.png][attachment=205960:ecmt850.168 showers lsr windy Sat.png][attachment=205961:ecmt850.192 colder perhaps wintry showers Sun.png][attachment=205963:prcpWarwickshire rain at times drier interludes Warks.png][attachment=205964:t850Warwickshire ave temps.png][attachment=205965:prmslSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion unsettled to mid month.png][attachment=205966:mgram_Birmingham.png]
  12. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Mainly dry, rather cloudy, some frost and fog; near average temperatures[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Rather a cold week gone with some frosty nights, especially here in Wales where Friday night saw a severe frost down to -7.3c (colder than any official UK station), and -5.5c at Tirabad, Powys. Frosts lighter for the Midlands and most of coastal Wales. Showery early in the week, a mix of hail, sleet, thunder and even snow in places, mainly but not exclusively for higher ground as Swansea, for example, caught some snow in the showers during Tuesday. With sunny spells it did not feel too bad and some days reached 9 or 10c for parts of West Wales, which is near average for late November. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Plenty of dry, quiet weather in the coming week as high pressure sticks close to southern Ireland through to Thursday, before it turns breezy but still mostly dry. Variable cloud, so sunshine the most difficult aspect to predict, and there will be further frost and fog at times, more especially early in the week. Another frosty start for many on Sunday, although parts of the Midlands too cloudy for this, and most coastal areas, as is typical in Autumn/ early Winter, have escaped. Some sunny intervals about on Sunday afternoon, but perhaps a lot of cloud especially over the Midlands. Highs on Sunday 7 to 9c. Cloud tending to break tonight with a widespread generally slight frost, although parts of inland Wales down to -4c. Fog may form in places but probably not so widespread this. Similar on Monday, plenty of cloud but with sunny intervals and a touch colder highs of 6 to 8c. West Wales could fare best for sunshine on Monday. Frost and fog forming where cloud breaks permit on Monday night but this a bit of a lottery, although again inland Wales 'favoured' for a frosty night. Again, cloud cover difficult to say for Tuesday, some areas lucky with decent sunny spells, others remaining largely overcast, temperatures once more below average at 6 to 8c maxima. Very little wind throughout this early to middle period of the week. Should anywhere see fog this may be slow to clear and so temperatures would then struggle to top 4 or 5c.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Subtle changes by Wednesday with milder and more generally cloudier skies working around the high from off the Atlantic. Less chance of brightness developing then on Wednesday and West Wales coasts and hills may see a spit of drizzle. Milder highs of between 8 and 10c, 11c possible for Pembrokeshire. Although some clear intervals may develop on Wednesday night, a fairly extensive cloud cover is likely so frost more restricted and localised, nowhere getting below zero, so a grass frost at worst. Thursday and another rather cloudy but fairly mild day, brighter intervals in places, highs 9 to 11c. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]High pressure then slips away SW on Friday as lows track to our north into Scandinavia. The main effect from this pressure pattern change is to tighten the isobars so that with a NW breeze no frost or fog expected for Thursday night, temperatures should remain above 3c. Most of the rain associated with the Scandinavian low is expected to pass to our NE so still an essentially dry picture to end the week. Just the chance the fronts turn out more lively with a spell of light rain later Friday into Saturday? Friday then is breezy but generally dry with some sunny intervals and near average temperatures. Next weekend high pressure still close enough to the SW for plenty of dry weather, although weak fronts could produce a little rain in places. A brisk NW flow so not mild but not much in the way of frost either. Sunshine still likely to be at a premium next weekend with a moist Atlantic air stream. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=194785:PPVJ89 dry calm early week local frost and fog.png][attachment=194786:viewimage calm r cold local fog and frost early week.png][attachment=194788:PPVL89 more cloud milder Wed.png][attachment=194789:ecmt850.096 milder We Th still dry.png][attachment=194790:metslp.120 dry r mild Th.png][attachment=194791:ecmt850.144 breezy m dry Fr.png][attachment=194792:viewimage HSW LNE breezy m dry wend.png][attachment=194793:ecmt850.168 m dry ave temps wend.png][attachment=194794:prcpSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire mostly dry week.png][attachment=194795:prmslWarwickshire H much of week m dry.png][attachment=194796:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  13. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Unsettled with rain and strong winds at times (drier and brighter Tuesday and Wednesday); temperatures around average (12c)[/b][/size][/font]


    [font=arial][size=3]Very mild but wet last week, unseasonably mild on Monday night when many places only dropped to 14 or 15c, which is above the average maxima for late October! Copious rain, especially on Monday when much of Wales saw between one and two inches, and even more for some areas such as the Valleys. Further very wet weather on Friday too, Llanwnnen and many other parts of Wales having an inch of rain, although it reached a very mild 18c in the Midlands. Llanwnnen has had 109mm (well over 4 inches) rain in the past week, while notoriously wet Capel Curig in Snowdonia has had about 140mm. In contrast Church Lawford in Warwickshire has had less than one inch (25mm) during this period. With 118.5mm to date Coventry has already had its wettest October since 1987 (124mm) with more rain to come still. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The main meteorological interest this week has been the impending 'storm of the century' as greatly hyped up in a certain newspaper that does this week in week out. A lively depression is indeed likely to affect us in the next 24 hours or so, but comparisons with the Great Storm of 1987 (Michael Fish 'It's not a Hurricane') are ridiculous! Following the 'storm' then a changeable week, rain at times but with dry interludes and temperatures around the average for the end of October/ start of November (12c maxima), and as is usual West Wales receiving most of the wet weather. Firstly though, sunny intervals and blustery showers on Sunday, perhaps not too many for the Midlands but some heavy ones over Wales with the chance of a clap of thunder. Fresh to strong SW winds gusting gale force in exposed places on Sunday and rather mild highs of 13 or 14c. The fun and games begin this evening as a rapidly developing system quickly approaches from the Atlantic to our WSW! Currently at midday Sunday this feature is a mere 995mbar and well to the SW of Ireland, by midnight it is around 985mbar and is entering the Bristol Channel, and by midday Monday it is whistling away into the North Sea and could be registering pressure as low as 970mbar. Even at this late stage there is uncertainty over the development of this depression, although all models take it across South Wales and the Midlands through tonight. The model discrepencies are with just how deep and intense this developing feature will become as it crosses the UK, and there has been a marked trend away from more extreme scenarios in the past 24 hours model production, the low is now not expected to be as deep or intense as was being modelled just yesterday afternoon (such predictive 'downgrades' often happen at the last minute with our weather!). Close to the centre of the low (Wales and the Midlands) there will be little more than a moderate to fresh breeze for much of tonight, indeed significantly calmer than this afternoon will be, with the gales affecting southern England only - severe on the south coast itself. The main feature tonight will be rain rather than wind, this heavy at times, and will have set in later on Sunday evening replacing the showers over West Wales, but even this should not last long enough to present much in the way of flooding issues, even though up to an inch could fall by morning. In the wake of the low on Monday morning, a strong to gale force WNW wind may well develop, although even this is being shown now as much less marked. All in all much of Wales and the Midlands will not be getting much of a storm, rather a typical Autumn blow with gales in places. It could be a different picture for the far south and SE of England however where a rather severe storm may still occur. For Monday then a bright, windy day with blustery showers again, heavy and perhaps thundery in places, but parts of the Midlands escaping these. Cooler air on Monday maxima 11 to 13c. Winds gusting to gale force (40mph) and perhaps severe gale force (50mph) in exposed places such as coastal headlands and hills - an unremarkable event it may well turn out! Proviso: the system may yet confound and devastate us! [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The rest of the week straightforward to predict in comparison with the coming 24 hours! A drier, brighter couple of days before it turns unsettled with rain at times from Thursday. Blustery showers keep going through Monday night for West Wales but mostly dry for the Midlands, lows of 6 to 9c. Low pressure eases away to Scandinavia on Tuesday, which still sees some scattered showers, but with better dry, sunny intervals between as a ridge comes across Ireland. Rather cool and breezy on Tuesday highs generally 10 or 11c, but 12c for Pembrokeshire where it will be brighter. The ridge is over England by Tuesday night which is dry for most with clear periods and cooler down to 3c in places, with a local grass frost. High pressure close to the SE through Wednesday which is a mostly dry bright day, particularly for the Midlands. West Wales may cloud over through the afternoon as a trough approaches Ireland with some light rain and drizzzle in places by evening. Highs on Wednesday close to the average of 12 or 13c. The SW wind also picking up as we go through Wednesday becoming quite strong over Wales later. There could be further light rain at times for West Wales on Wednesday night but mostly dry for the Midlands. The trough slows down on Thursday and could give a wet day for Wales but may hold off until late afternoon for the Midlands, but most of us gettting some wet weather on Thursday. Milder air tempered by the cloud and rain on Thursday so around or a little above average at 11 to 13c maxima.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Another transient ridge drying things up for Thursday night or Friday morning, but the weather turning decidely unsettled again as we head for the weekend.with a deep low NW of Scotand. Temperatures at least up to the average and mild at times with the SW flow. So a windy, fairly mild weekend in prospect seemingly, rain or showers at times and perhaps another shot at the 'storm of the century' come this time next week?![/size][/font]
    [attachment=190333:xPPVA89.png.pagespeed.ic.KWEvrb2AUK nascent storm.png][attachment=190321:ecmt850.024 not so severe more south.png][attachment=190323:PPVE89 perhaps not this extreme.png][attachment=190325:PPVG89 windy showery Mon.png][attachment=190327:PPVJ89 some showers Tue.png][attachment=190328:ecmt850.072 m dry Wed.png][attachment=190329:PPVL89 m dry Wed.png][attachment=190330:ecmt850.096 rain Thu.png][attachment=190332:ukprec rain Thu.png][attachment=190331:ecmt850.144 unsettled Fri pm.png][attachment=190334:ecmt850.168 unsettled windy rain times weekend.png][attachment=190335:h850t850eu unsetteld windy rain times wend.png][attachment=190336:ecmt850.192 storm of the century mark 2 Sun.png][attachment=190337:prcpSir~Ceredigion~-~Ceredigion quite wet week.png][attachment=190338:prmslWarwickshire changeable week.png][attachment=190339:t850Warwickshire cool then mild.png][attachment=190340:mgram_Birmingham.png]
  14. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3]
    [b]Headline: Mostly dry; warm to mid week, then briefly cooler; warming, perhaps eventually thundery weekend[/b][/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    Another mostly dry week gone just the odd spit of drizzle. Temperatures have been average to warm, highest readings of around 23c for West Wales on Monday, while Coventry and many other parts of the Midlands reached between 22 and 25c each day up to Friday. Inspite of being mostly dry and quite warm it was not though such a sunny week, with quite a lot of cloud at times, especially for West Wales. Cooler on Saturday with fresher air behind a cold front, the maximum of 16.7c here the lowest of the month, while Warwickshire managed 19c. August was a rather warm month with variable rainfall but generally near average totals and so not a bad finale to a rather dry, warm and quite sunny Summer 2013![/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    August rainfall totals:[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    Llanwnnen 82mm = near normal[/size][/font][font=arial][size=3]
    Llanelli: 95.2mm = near normal[/size][/font][font=arial][size=3]
    Bablake, Coventry = 49.3mm = rather dry[/size][/font][font=arial][size=3]
    Long Lawford, Rugby 34mm = dry[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    A chilly start to September/ Meteorological Autumn, down to 4c over parts of West Wales on Saturday night and 6c at Church Lawford in the Midlands, the lowest figures since June. A pleasant dry weekend gone if a little cool in places. The coming week sees a predominance of dry weather yet again and with temperatures rising into the 'very warm' category, reaching 25c for at least the Midlands by mid week, not half bad for September, but far behind September 1906 when it was in the mid 30's celsius over the Midlands, the most incredible September heat on record! Although not hot, this week will be more akin to Summer than Autumn.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    Milder on Sunday night with the westerly breeze. High pressure close by to our SW on Monday, which is set to be a dry and warm day with plenty of sunshine. A fly in the ointment may be sea fog or low cloud drifting onto Cardigan Bay coasts at times as there will be a gentle moist NW drift, so if this occurs highs restricted to just 18c in places like Aberporth. Generally for inland West Wales though pleasantly warm with sunny spells and highs around 20c, while mostly sunny and 23c for the Midlands on Monday. Clearing skies and lows around 10c on Monday night. The high centred over southern England on Tuesday which should be sunny and warm for virtually all places! Maxima ranging from 19c for coastal West Wales, 22c for inland West Wales, and 25c for parts of the midlands. Light variable winds on Tuesday. The high edges away east on Wednesday but is close enough for another dry, reasonably sunny day for most. A very warm southerly drag of air for Wednesday, temperatures pushing 80f in reaching 26c locally over the Midlands! Warm for Wales too, 23c in places here with decent sunny spells.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    Changes on Thursday as a trough moves in from the west, however this may not have much if any rain or showers on it. The front will though bring more cloud and a few showers to West Wales and considerably cooler temperatures as the air comes back from off the Atlantic. The Midlands may well see one more fine and warm day though as the trough tends to slow down over the west. Big contrast in temperature likely on Thursday from west to east, so West Wales no higher than 18c, while the East Midlands could manage 24c. The cool air should extend to the Midlands too overnight Thursday so clearing skies and lows of 6c in places. Friday somewhat uncertain as to whether the trough has cleared SE England or not? It is possible that the warmth hangs on over SE England with some thundery showers affecting there, and it is possible some of these will push into the Midlands later on Friday or overnight. For the west though on Friday, it looks more definite a case for being under a cool ridge of high pressure, so a fine, bright day likely here. Highs on Friday 16 to 18c, rather cool for early September.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]
    Greater uncertainty still for next weekend, with a plume of hot air over the near Continent while the cool ridge of high pressure sits over northern UK. There is likely to be a heat low over Iberia and it is the position and orientation of this that dictates whether Wales and England gets some of this very warm air pumped around the low from off Europe? Best guess is a mainly dry and rather warm Saturday, perhaps turning increasingly warm and humid with the risk of thundery rain for Sunday - although equally it could stay fine and dry? Temperatures over northern France could well be up to 30c next weekend.[/size][/font][font=arial][size=3]
    [attachment=183866:PPVG89 dry warm Mon.png][attachment=183867:ecmt850.048 warm dry Tues.png][attachment=183868:PPVK89 v warm dry Wed.png][attachment=183869:ecmt850.072 v warm Wed.png][attachment=183870:ecmt850.096 cool down west Thu.png][attachment=183872:ukmaxtemp temp contrast THu.png][attachment=183871:ecmt850.120 m dry r cool Fri.png][attachment=183873:h850t850eu H SCot m dry r warm weekend showers S.png][attachment=183874:ecmt850.168 v warm plume and thunder potential Sunday.png][attachment=183875:prmslWest~Midlands Tr Thu otherwise rel high.png][attachment=183876:prmslSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire H or L next wend.png][attachment=183877:mgram_Birmingham great difference from Fri.png][/size][/font]
  15. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Mostly dry and warm with sunny spells[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A mainly dry week gone, with just a couple of mm falling at Llanwnnen and Coventry, however parts of the Midlands did get wetter weather for a time on Friday and Saturday, although the Midlands narrowly missed out on the heavy rain that affected Eastern England throughout Saturday. Temperatures average to warm early last week, then on Thursday very warm for Wales, Llanwnnen reaching 25.7c with plenty of sunshine, while parts of the Midlands managed 25c on Friday - by which time West Wales had cooled down to average. Saturday was the coolest day of the month at Llanwnnen with a high of just 17.4c, while Capel Curig in Snowdonia only reached a decidedly Autumnal 15c. Very cool last night across Wales, the low at Bala just 2.6c and 3c at Sennybridge - a taste of Autumn![/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]With relatively low pressure over the UK on Sunday, the morning sunshine in the west may flatter to deceive, with cloud building up to produce a scattering of showers during the afternoon, especially well inland, although coasts could well remain sunny all afternoon! Conversely the cloud is breaking up over the Midlands with sunny spells developing along with a few sharp showers. Highs on Sunday a warm 20c for West Wales and 23c for brighter parts of the Midlands. Clearing skies tonight, lows generally 10 to 12c. A ridge of high pressure should kill off the showers for Bank Holiday Monday, which for 99% of us is a lovely warm and sunny day! Highs on Monday 22 to 25c widely with only gentle breezes. A clear and comfortably cool night follows the warmth, lows 7 to 10c for most places. The ridge holds over the UK on Tuesday although a weakening cold front is moving through it from the NW later in the day. Another fine and warm day for most, decent sunny spells, especially the Midlands and South Wales. It may though cloud over for Wales through Tuesday afternoon with heavy showers breaking out in places, chiefly over the hills. Maxima generally 21 to 24c with very little wind. Clear spells overnight temperatures no lower than 10c.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Mid week and high pressure still sits over Wales and England, so another largely dry and warm day on Wednesday, just the isolated light shower in places, sunny spells again and highs between 21 and 24c, a bit cooler for coastal West Wales as onshore breezes develop. The ridge holding sway across southern Britain during Thursday too, another fine and warm day with sunny spells, although sea fog and drizzle may affect some stretches of coast with a moistening SW drag of air by this stage, any fog most likely for Cardigan Bay. Maxima on Thursday generally 19 to 23c, but cooler where foggy along coasts. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The weather may be turning more unsettled by the end of the week but this by no means certain at this stage, as the various models are showing a sharp split in their interpretations of the atmosphere from Friday. One scenario is for a marked trough to cross the UK during late Friday or Saturday bringing a spell of rain, strong winds and much cooler conditions, while the alternative is for high pressure to maintain over or close us, keeping it mostly dry, bright and reasonably warm. Generally speaking though, very little rain is being modelled, even by the weekend, and so any fronts are suggested to pass through quickly, and with only a short spell of rain expected. The worst outcome would be that of latest ECM model run which would see a decidely Autumnal cool, windy and showery weekend, but this is a marked 'outlier' amongst the overall model suite, and a fine and dry, if perhaps cooling weekend is more likely an outcome. In any case, early September is promising further dry, settled, and warm weather.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=183410:PPVG89 warm sunny BHM.png][attachment=183411:ecmt850.072 M dry warm Tues.png][attachment=183412:PPVJ89 Warm dry Tue perhaps clouding over WW later.png][attachment=183413:PPVL89 dry warm Wed.png][attachment=183414:ecmt850.096 warm dry mid week.png][attachment=183415:metslp.96 fine warm mid week too.png][attachment=183416:h850t850eu fine dry but cooling weekend.png][attachment=183417:ecmt850.168 cool windy showery weekend is outlier.png][attachment=183418:mgram_Birmingham m dry warm week, divergence FRi Sat.png][attachment=183419:prcpWarwickshire mainly dry week.png][attachment=183420:prmslAbertawe~-~Swansea H all week.png][/size][/font]
  16. TonyH
    [font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Plenty of dry and warm weather, perhaps breaking down over the holiday weekend?[/b][/font]

    [font=Helvetica][b]The week gone:[/b][/font]

    [font=Helvetica]A cooler feel early last week, temperatures only reached 17.5c on Monday at Llanwnnen (the coolest day for 6 weeks), and 17.8c at Coventry on Tuesday, we did though get warm, but moist air Thursday into Friday, 25c being reached at Coleshill and Wellesbourne in Warwickshire on Thursday with some pleasant sunny spells too. Not much rain until Thursday, the very moist, warm air enveloping the UK then produced copious rainfall through Thursday night, which was not anticipated to this level in last week's guide! Trawsgoed, Ceredigion, was the wettest spot in the UK in the 24 hours to 6am Friday receiving 58.6mm rainfall, and many parts of Wales had betwen 25 and 50mm (one to two inches) rain during Thursday and Friday. All this rain caused localised flooding in Mid and North Wales on Friday and even a landslide onto the A487 near Corris, South Gwynedd. Nor did the Midlands escape the deluge, with Coventry having 26mm in the 24 hours to 0900 Friday, however much of the Midlands had less at 10 to 15mm. [/font]

    [font=Helvetica][b]The week to come:[/b][/font]

    [font=Helvetica]A much better prospect in the coming week with plenty of dry and warm, even very warm weather, however this may not last over the Bank Holiday weekend. Saturday's damp weather has moved off leaving a mainly dry and bright Sunday with just a few scattered showers in places. Highs on Sunday afternoon between 19 and 21c with a moderate westerly breeze. Clearing skies and reducing breezes tonight means a cooler night than of late (incidentally last Wednesday was the warmest night of this Summer here, a low of just 16.5c), temperatures down to 8 to 10c away from coasts. A ridge of high pressure builds in from the SW through Monday, a dry and bright day, some decent sunny spells, only the isolated light shower possible over Welsh hills, and a refreshing westerly breeze, highs of 18 or 19c for West Wales and 21c for the Midlands. Clear periods and quite a cool night again follows, minima ranging from 13c on coasts to 8c for some inland rural spots. High pressure over southern England on Tuesday, warm and sunny for the Midlands, sunny spells too for West Wales, although perhaps clouding over later in the afternoon here. Highs on Tuesday a pleasant 20 or 21c for West Wales and 24c for the Midlands.[/font]

    [font=Helvetica]A weakening disturbance tracks close to NW UK on Wednesday, so perhaps more in the way of cloud and even a shower or two in places, and a very slight chance of isolated thunder, but many places remaining dry. Rather warm and humid on Wednesday, maxima generally between 21 and 25c, highest over the Midlands, where warm sunny breaks are more likely afternoon. Clear spells overnight with lows 11 to 14c. High pressure centred to our NE over Scandinavia on Thursday with a warm to very warm SE to east flow advecting our way off the Continent. Models varying in just how warm this air will be, but the potential for temperatures to reach 27c 80f in places on Thursday, and with plenty of strong sunshine and gentle breezes. A clear night to follow so at least temperatures drop to a comfortable 11 to 14c. [/font]

    [font=Helvetica]Diverging model outputs from Friday - as should be expected with a Bank Holiday weekend imminent! A lot of uncertainty then with the holiday weekend, and some may be disappinted after all the media hype for a prolonged late August heatwave, conversely it may still turn out warm and reasonably dry! High pressure may well though not be in ascendance by next weekend, although we may avoid a washout weekend at least. Friday first, and another very warm day is likely, but there are suggstiions of a thundery breakdown later in the day and into Saturday. Sunny spells should be expected on Friday with maxima of 23 to 27c widely, and then by evening some showers or thunderstorms could be affecting some areas.[/font]

    [font=Helvetica]The all important weekend, and the latest GFS model brings a low right over Wales and England, producing showers and longer spells of rain along with a marked cool down. That's the bad news..the good news is that this particular model run is a marked 'outlier' with little support from the rest of the 'model suite'! Here, we shall 'go' with the ECM model along with much previous recent GFS output which has shown reasonable consistency in having high pressure over northern UK, and so painting a somewhat drier even pleasant picture. [/font]

    [font=Helvetica]Next weekend then is expected to see plenty of dry and warm weather with sunny intervals at least, but also the risk of some rain or showers at times. Greatest risk the further south you are of some thundery rain or showers, and more especially on Saturday it is felt, as ECM has a thundery low over northern France for Saturday. West Wales looks most favoured for some warm and fairly sunny conditions at times over the Bank Holiday weekend due to the anticipated NE flow which will serve to break the cloud crossing the hills to our east. [/font]
  17. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Mixed; some rain and showers, some dry, bright and warm weather[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]July 2013 was the warmest of any month since July 2006, monthly mean temperatures of 19c for Coventry, it does not often get much warmer! Rainfall wise downpours and thunderstorms in the final week turned it into a rather wet month for parts of the Midlands, while West Wales had well below average rain for the month: [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Coventry 64.8mm [url="http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/"]http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/[/url][/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Rugby 50mm [/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Llanwnnen: 40.6mm [/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Llanelli: 44.2mm [url="http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=51.680%2C-4.141&sp=ICARMART4"]http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=51.680%2C-4.141&sp=ICARMART4[/url][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]It was also a very sunny month with over 300 hours sunshine for Anglesey and Pembrokeshire. [url="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomacts"]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomacts[/url][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]It cooled off early last week only to hot up in many places on Thursday, which saw the highest UK reading of the year, 34c at London Heathrow, while Coventry and much of the Midlands reached 31c, again the hottest of the Summer to date. Meanwhile in Wales some of us were not so fortunate with Thursday's brief heatwave, as the warm airmass contained a lot of moisture resulting in a rather cloudy day over Carmarthenshire and keeping temperatures down to around 22c, while neighbouring Ceredigion fared better seeing sunny spells and maxima of 25c. Many places experienced showers and thunderstorms again last week, parts of the Midlands quite badly hit on Monday and again on Friday evening but more localised. Parts of West Wales saw thunder and lightning too especially on Friday evening. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]This coming week will continue in the rather unsettled vein, a sluggish pattern of slow moving but not so deep lows trying to make up their minds where to soak, interspersed with weak transient ridges of high pressure. So, while it will be wet at times, showers or even some longer spells of rain never far away, some days this week will turn out very pleasant and feeling warm in the sunshine, all in all a typical week in a british Summer! During Sunday and Monday we are affected by a slow moving trough of low pressure bringing spells of rain and showers, very heavy at times, throughout the rest of Sunday, overnight and well into Monday. Already on Sunday parts of Carmarthenshire have had almost two inches of rain with localised flooding likely? Heaviest of the rain this afternoon over Mid Wales, more patchy, showery rain for South and North Wales and the Midlands. Wales seeing further rain, heavy at times on Sunday night, very wet in places, there will be one to two inches of rain totalling up widely by morning. Much of the rain intermittent and light for the Midlands until morning when heavier bursts affect here too, and the rain on Monday lasts through much of the afternoon, whereas it should have cleared West Wales by around midday. Needless to say a lot of cloud on Monday, although it should brighten through the afternoon over Wales, maximum temperatures betwen 18 and 21c a little below the August averages. Clearing skies on Monday night and fairly low mimima of 7 to 10c, except on coasts adjacent to the warm Summer seas.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]The weakest of high pressure ridges on Tuesday which is a generally dry and bright day, but with a few showers scattered about. Feeling warm in the sunny spells, highs around 21c for West Wales and 23c for the Midlands. On Wednesday it looks like we are inbeween lows, one just to our SW, the other over the near Continent, a slack pressure pattern over us so light winds. Probably decent sunny spells again on Wednesday but with more in the way of showers for the afternoon, heavy and perhaps thundery in places. Another day where it feels pleasant in any sunny breaks and given the light winds, highs between 20 and 23c, but not so good under the showers! Just the possibilty that one of our adjacent lows decides to encroach further our way to produce some longer spells of rain, but sun and some sharp showers the most likely outcome for Wednesday. Thursday too looking another pleasant enough day, another weak transient ridge expected so few if any showers and plenty of dry weather with sunny spells. Rather warm too, highs 21 to 25c, best for the Midlands. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Friday, and relatively high pressure over southern Britain, but with weak fronts crossing the UK from off the Atlantic introducing moist, rather humid air. These fronts look weak and should only produce cloud and a light intermittent rain at times, more especially over West Wales, with perhaps brighter intervals for the Midlands. Damp West Wales coolest on Friday having highs below 20c, but perhaps 23c where it brightens for the Midlands. The mixed bag continues next weekend, so further pleasant and warm weather at times (Saturday or Sunday?), while equally some rain at times (Saturday or Sunday?). One fine and one damp, perhaps wet day the form horse then and anywhere that gets a completely dry weekend most fortunate indeed![/size][/font]
    [attachment=180791:PPVG89 rain Mon clears WW pm.png][attachment=180792:PPVJ89 Tue wk R m dry r warm.png][attachment=180793:ecmslp.048 wk R m dry Tue.png][attachment=180794:ecmt850.072 between lows sun showers Wed.png][attachment=180795:PPVO89 wk R m dry r warm Thu.png][attachment=180796:metslp.120 moist damp air for Fri.png][attachment=180797:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=180798:prcpWarwickshire showery week.png][attachment=180799:t850Abertawe~-~Swansea ave to warm week.png]
  18. TonyH
    [color=#000000]
    [b]Headline- Mostly dry: rather cloudy early on, then improving mid- week onwards to warm sunny spells for most. [/b][/color]

    Although mainly dry this past week, the high pressure which suggested some warm, and at times sunny weather, in reality contained a lot of quite cool, moist air. At least around Lampeter we did see a few very mild and sunny afternoons last week, however the Cardigan Bay coast and central MIdlands saw plenty of cloud and mist, with temperatures restricted to high's of just 7 to 10c for the most part, quite disappointing considering the models were predicting so much better. Of interest is that during the early part of last week, while most lowland and coastal Wales was quite cool and misty, high ground up around 1000 feet was warm and sunny- Tredegar at 18c was the warmest place in the UK on Monday! There was some warm and sunny weather to be found if you were prepared to climb a hill..
    [color=#000000]
    More generally dry weather the coming week, and it's not looking good for the drought restricted areas of England this Summer. A new high pressure, so new headaches with where areas of cloud will persist and where they manage to break, will make all the difference to the weather experienced, although the latter half of the week looks warmer and sunnier broadly speaking.[/color]
    [color=#000000]
    Firstly on Sunday plenty of cloud from a weak trough and some rain or drizzle in places, especially the Midlands, this clearing later with even some late afternoon sunshine for west Wales probably. A cooler feel to the day too, and there could well be a slight frost as skies clear during Sunday night.[/color][color=#000000]
    [attachment=132354:brack0 cloud damp Sun.gif][/color]

    [color=#000000]
    High pressure is close to France early in week, with westerly winds bringing probably plenty more cloud and just sunny intervals for luckier places, this being on Monday and Tuesday, even with a little drizzle in some places. On the mild side though and reaching 11-13c.[/color][color=#000000]
    [attachment=132355:brack1a ridge but cloud mon.gif] [attachment=132356:Recm722 cloud westerly Tue.gif] [attachment=132357:Rtavn782 H westerly Tue.png][/color]
    [color=#000000]
    This area of high pressure then moves into into the North Sea or Germany region by Thursday. Winds then switching to south east, a direction which should favour more in the way of sunshine and increased temperatures. By Friday if this scenario plays out, then many of us will see temperatures of 16 - 18c maxima. As usual in Spring, should skies be clear enough overnight, then a touch of ground frost is likely, but hardly noticeable.[/color][color=#000000]
    [attachment=132358:Rtavn1082 turning south Wed.png] [attachment=132359:Recm1442 wam SE flow Fri.gif] [attachment=132360:Rtavn1501 mild se flow Fri.png][/color]
    [color=#000000]
    Some of the model output over the past few days has hinted at a disturbance forming close to South-west England by the end of the week, and if this feature were to develop, then some showery rain is likely in places on Friday or Saturday, more especially the south of our regions. This though, I feel, has just an outside chance of happening, and I envisage a generally dry and eventually quite warm week ahead.[/color]
  19. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Warm with some showers to mid week, then mostly dry but cooler[/b]

    Some welcome dry, very warm and sunny weather in recent days. We all had a completely dry week just gone, the first one since March. West Wales was hot on Friday and again Saturday, reaching 28c in a few places, including Llanwnnen, and just missing out on breaking the all time May heat record of 29c for the Principality.

    Cooling off this week but probably still not much in the way of rain, just hit and miss showers.

    From Monday through to Wednesday this week we gradually lose the heat although it will still be warm for the end of May. We are in a slack pressure zone between low and high pressures. This suggests plenty of dry and warm weather with sunny spells. However, the pressure is low enough coupled with the day time warmth of the sun for scattered showers to develop on each of these days. These will though be hit and miss affairs, with a fair few places getting completely dry days, then perhaps a few sharp showers on another of the days between Monday and Wednesday, along with the outside chance of a thunderstorm. Maximum temperatures lower than during the present spell but still managing 21 to 25c.
    [attachment=134621:brack0a slack col warm poss showers mon.gif] [attachment=134622:Rtavn602 slack warm few showers tue.png] [attachment=134623:brack2 slack warm some showers wed.gif] [attachment=134624:Recm722 slack warm some showers wed.gif]

    Things change from Thursday with high pressure building from the north-west, and a cool north to north-east air stream coming down across the UK about this high. This air is in fact of Arctic origin, but much moderated as it travels south to Britain. A few early showers still possible on Thursday especially for the Midlands, but then it brightens up but is much cooler and fresher than of late, temperatures only reaching 16 to 18c. This set up remains for Friday and probably next weekend also, so generally dry and bright but a cool north-east breeze. Sunniest for west Wales, where it will feel pleasant enough, but areas of cloud more likely to come off the North Sea affecting the Midlands at times, so perhaps feeling a bit chilly here. Some showers could also come into the Midlands next Saturday but that's a long way off. Maximum temperatures for the end of the week near average at 17 to 20c. With skies clearing and the cool air mass, a ground frost cannot be ruled out for the nights at the end of the week, even though we are into June!
    [attachment=134625:brack4 cooler ne about NW H thu.gif] [attachment=134626:Rtavn1082 cooling off northerly thu.png] [attachment=134627:Recm1202 cooler ne dry fri.gif] [attachment=134628:Rtavn13817 this cool really fri.png] [attachment=134629:Rukm1441 coll ne flow dry sat.gif] [attachment=134631:Rtavn1621 coolish showers sat.png] [attachment=134632:Recm1682 coolish dry weekend.gif]
  20. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Cool and changeable; more rain and showers at times, with decent dry interludes. Frost risk mid week.[/b]

    The dismal, cool and soggy Spring continues relentlessly. A respite from the rain this weekend but a fairly unsettled outlook for the coming week, so still no prolonged dry or warm weather as yet. In fact, more late frosts are expected in the middle of the coming week.


    After a fairly sunny but windy weekend, the cloud from the next frontal system, attached to a deep low passing north of Scotland, spreads over during this evening. Rain at times Sunday night, especially for west Wales along with quite a strong south-west wind. The rain should have cleared by lunchtime with sunny spells and a few showers for Monday afternoon and evening. A fresh westerly wind and feeling rather cool.
    [attachment=134153:brack0 rain to showers mon.gif]

    Even cooler on Tuesday, with a fresh to strong north to north-west wind bringing quite a few showers, these heavy with hail at times. Maxima just 10 to 12c. The low pressure edges away east Tuesday night, and winds may ease enough to give a ground frost as temperatures get down close to zero. Wednesday looks like being a dry and fairly sunny day with a high pressure crossing southern Britain. Still rather cool though, 14 to 16c at best. Clear skies lead to another frost for Wednesday night, close to zero in places once more.
    [attachment=134154:Recm482 cool showery tue.gif] [attachment=134155:brack2a frost sunny wed.gif] [attachment=134156:Rtavn781 H south wed dry.png] [attachment=134158:Rtavn9017 frost wed night.png]

    This high has moved east by Thursday, but may still be ridging across England and Wales and keeping it generally dry, but perhaps with more cloud than Wednesday. There is the chance that some showery rain may arrive from the west later in the day, but a mostly dry Thursday looks likely. Temperatures around average reaching 15 to 17c, warmest in the Midlands.
    [attachment=134157:Recm962 mostly dry thu after frost.gif]

    On Friday we are influenced by a low pressure moving up from France with it's associated rain. It's debatable how far north this low will push up , but it seems it could get into southern UK. Alternatively, it may give us a glancing blow passing more to the south-east. Nonetheless turning more unsettled again on Friday and into next weekend with areas of rain or showers affecting many parts. If the low tracks to our south-east then it drags chilly north-east winds over us too, so not too good at least for Saturday, with well below average temperatures once more. The GFS model is showing highs of just 7c for Wales and the Midlands next Saturday, an exceptionally cool and damp day - however this model tends to exaggerate temperatures so 10c or so would be a more realistic level should this scenario play out, and with the usual proviso that 'it's a long way off'! As for next Sunday, another cool day seems likely, although whether it rains or not is anyone's guess at this stage.
    [attachment=134159:Rtavn1201 shall low south fri.png] [attachment=134160:Recm1202 cool E wind fri rain later.gif] [attachment=134161:Rtavn1441 L to SE Sat unsettled cool NE wind.png] [attachment=134162:Rtavn15017 Very cool sat.png]
  21. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Continuing very unsettled with more rain and showers. Mostly cool.[/b]

    We all had a good dose of rain last week, with over an inch for most.
    With the set up having been generally showery of late, local variations have occurred, so that for example on Friday morning Lampeter only had a couple of short sharp showers, while inland from Aberystwyth a lot of heavy and prolonged downpours gave almost an inch of rain. Meanwhile the west coast of Pembrokeshire has stayed more or less dry since Wednesday up to Saturday afternoon- lucky for holidaymakers there! As with the previous week hail has been quite a feature where heavier showers have occurred.

    The very unsettled theme shows no signs of relenting even into the start of May, with low pressure always close by, so plenty more useful rain for the drought declared Midlands. A complicated guide this week to try and pin the details on so much is happening, so things may not pan out exactly as envisaged below -but is that not always the case!

    The showers should have largely died out tonight so clearing skies will give another ground frost for many parts by Sunday morning- we got down to -1c last night here at Llanwnnen. The low that has been hanging around over the UK most of the past week finally fills up during Sunday which we see some more showers knocking about with sunny spells between them. Less chance of a ground frost Sunday night as cloud arrives by the morning. The next low then crosses southern England or the Channel during Monday. Some uncertainty as to how far north the rain will extend from this low, depending on it's exact track, but it could well be a wet day for much of Wales and the Midlands, and a very cool one too, with a fresh east to north-east wind, so temperatures struggling to reach just 10c, very poor for late April.
    [attachment=133340:brack0a more showers sunday.gif] [attachment=133341:brack1a v cool wet south Mon.gif] [attachment=133342:Recm722 channel L Mon.gif] [attachment=133343:Rtavn544 how far N for rain Mon.png]

    The low is close to SE England on Tuesday so another cool day with sunny intervals and heavy showers in many places. It does though edge away Tuesday night and there should be enough of a lull and clearance to give a slight air frost for most places. Yet another low arrives to our south-west on Wednesday, so that after a dry, bright morning, further cloud and rain will spread up from the south-west during the afternoon and evening accompanied by a fresh to strong SE wind. Needless to say with the wind and rain another cool day, temperatures up to just 10 to 12c at best. Indeed, Wednesday looks like being the wettest day of the coming week.
    [attachment=133344:Recm962 lull frost risk Tue night.gif] [attachment=133345:Rtavn9617 frosty Tue night.png] [attachment=133346:brack4 New L SW becoming wet windy Wed.gif] [attachment=133347:Rtavn1084 cool wet Wed.png]


    This low pressure area continues to sit to our south-west while filling up at the end of next week. More of same, with sunny spells and showers, these heavy and thundery in places probably right up to the weekend. Milder than of late though with winds more from the south, so at least temperatures close to the late April average reaching 13 to 15c on Friday and perhaps even Saturday too, and no frosts to be concerned about. A great deal of uncertainty in the models 7 days out though and with so much happening this week, and the reality may well turn out rather different.
    [attachment=133348:filling L SW Fri showery.png] [attachment=133349:Recm1442 L still SW Fri showery milder.gif]

    Meanwhile over Germany, the same low brings deep southerly winds next weekend with temperatures reaching 80f in places there. Wonder how long we will have to wait to see such heat!
    [attachment=133350:Recm1922 hot Germany next wend.gif]
  22. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Dry bright start, then very unsettled with plenty of rain and showers. Rather cool.[/b]

    [font=arial, sans-serif]After the wet day Monday with almost an inch of rain, Llanwnnen and much of west west Wales dodged the showers until Friday, with plenty of dry weather and good sunny spells. Warwickshire too missed the worst of the showers this week, while other parts of the country saw several centimeters of lying hail and thunderstorms locally.[/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif]The general theme of rather cool and unsettled weather is set to continue for much of the remainder of April. More rain and showers prevailing after a dry, bright start to the coming week.[/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif]A ridge of high pressure gives us a mainly dry couple of days Sunday and Monday, and there will be sharp frosts overnight, as low as -5c in places. The illusion of a quiet fine week does not last, as later on Monday a quite deep low pressure edges towards Scotland.[/font] [font=arial, sans-serif]Rain will arrive in west Wales during the evening and move steadily into the Midlands overnight. At least no frost with all the cloud and rain. [/font]

    [attachment=133134:brack1a Ridge Mon sharp frost.gif] [attachment=133135:Recm722 L edging in Mion night rain fronts.gif]
    [font=arial, sans-serif]Tuesday to Thursday are then controlled by this complex area of low pressure that slowly transfers across the UK. A very unsettled picture with showers or longer spells of rain, heavy at times, and as with last week, hail and thunder in places. Some sunny spells between the showers but a lot less dry, bright weather than this past week. [/font]
    [attachment=133136:brack3 rain showers tue west wind.gif] [attachment=133137:Rtavn841 Tue deep L.png] [attachment=133138:brack4 complex L UK Wed.gif] [attachment=133139:Recm1202 L still there Thu.gif]
    [font=arial, sans-serif]Although this particular low eventually edges into the North Sea by Thursday or Friday (depending on which model you prefer), it is quickly replaced by another deep low from the north-west. So a hint of a drier interlude around Thursday or Friday (although probably not completely dry either!), before more very unsettled, wet and windy weather next weekend, with a new low sat somewhere over southern UK. Gales an outside possibility for the west Friday night or Saturday.[/font]

    [attachment=133140:Rtavn1321 between lows thu.png] [attachment=133141:Recm1682 new deep L weekend.gif] [attachment=133142:Rtavn1801 new L next sat.png]
    [font=arial, sans-serif]These lows are within a cool air-mass so temperatures from Tuesday onwards continue to be on the cool side reaching just 10 to 14c. Frosts most likely during Wednesday and Thursday nights when winds are lightest and skies should clear. Winds varying between south-west and north throughout.[/font]
  23. TonyH
    [b]Headline: April showers, some longer spells of rain, cool to average temperatures[/b]

    A very sharp frost for April last Thursday night, down to -6c at Llanwnnen.
    Coventry had as much rain on Tuesday and Wednesday as it did in the whole of March. Rugby was even wetter receiving a very useful 24mm in the bid to prevent a hosepipe ban this Summer! These parts also saw a little snow for a while. West Wales has only had small amounts of rain of late, although this will change in the coming week.

    Low pressure edges towards Scotland during Sunday, so a lot of cloud and becoming quite windy as the day goes on. Rain and drizzle at times, especially during the afternoon and evening, but most of it light. Temperatures around the April average reaching 12 or 13c.
    The trailing cold front looks like developing a wave on Easter Monday, which could be a bit of a washout depending on how this feature develops. The worst of the rain is likely to be in the afternoon, and along with a strong south-west wind to spoil the holiday. Temperatures rather irrelevant given the wind and rain but on the cool side.
    [attachment=132943:brack1 wave rain Mon.gif] [attachment=132944:Rtavn541 wet windy Mon.png]

    During the middle of the week (Tuesday to Thursday) we are still affected by this low which moves into the North Sea or Scandinavia. Rather cool with showery north-west winds. As is the case with showers, some places will get quite a few downpours, while others, even just a few miles away, escape with a mostly dry day. Hail and even the odd crack of thunder are distinctly possible given such an unstable air mass. Temperatures on the cool side, generally only reaching 10- 12c, however, where the showers are fewer it will feel pleasant enough in the sunny spells and could manage 15c at best, perhaps most likely for the Midlands this. Winds are lighter from Wednesday so that some of the showers, where they occur, could well be prolonged, giving an hour or two of wet weather. Clearing skies overnight along with the cool air mass will see slight frosts developing.
    [attachment=132945:brack4 Showers L Scand.gif] [attachment=132946:Recm962 cool showery mid week.gif]

    The usual uncertainty for the end of the week, but there are suggestions of higher pressure and even a ridge moving in by Saturday, so a drier outlook with further sunny spells, and fewer showers about by Friday and Saturday. Still cool though with the generally northerly drift, maxima only around 10c or so. GFS has particularly chilly air over us by next weekend, and is showing a hard frost for early Saturday, down as low as -6c for parts of Wales and the Midlands - this is a long way off to predict and so best just bear this in mind, as in reality the frost may turn out less severe.
    [attachment=132947:Recm1442 cool drier late week frosts.gif] [attachment=132948:Rtavn1562 frosty ridge Sat.png] [attachment=132949:Rtavn16217 cold night Sat.png]
  24. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Welcome rain, with hill snow possible Tuesday. Cool, sharp frosts mid to late week, mostly dry. Unsettled Easter[/b]

    Quite a week just gone, with Winter and Summer in a day, from scraping the ice off to sunbathing a few hours later. Hard to better for prolonged warmth and sunshine in March, even if the Welsh and English records remained in tact. Most of us saw 20 or 21c; with Llanwnnen having 4 consecutive days above 20c, while Coventry had it's warmest March day since 1965. For a bit of perspective the average maximum temperature for the end of March is just 11 or 12c. This weekend has seen temperatures returning to more typical Spring values.

    March was very mild and dry, Llanwnnen had just 24mm , slightly less than Rugby's 25mm, an unusual occurrence, given that Ceredigion is twice as wet as Warwickshire on average. Only small amounts of rain in the coming week it would seem, with the emphasis being on cool, mostly dry and bright weather, with some late sharp frosts for gardeners to beware of.


    Monday starts off frosty, then is mostly dry and bright, but eventually clouding over during the afternoon. A trough moving down from the north is developing a low pressure system along it, which brings a little rain in places during the evening and overnight. Temperatures fairly mild for early April at 13c or so.
    As this low passes away south-east on Tuesday much colder north-east winds blow in, so that during the afternoon the spells of rain will turn to sleet or snow over the hills, with just a slight chance of a little wet snow for a short while to lower levels too. This should all clear away by evening, but a very cool, raw day with the fresh north-east wind restricting maxima to just 6- 8c.
    [attachment=132665:brack1 low developing Mon night.gif] [attachment=132666:brack1a cold air follows low hill snow Tue.gif] [attachment=132667:Rtavn602 hill snow likey Tue.png] [attachment=132668:Rtavn664 turning wintry Tue aft.png]

    From Wednesday a high pressure gradually sinks down just to our west, with cool air ridging east over the UK, so that the rest of the week looks dry, with plenty of sunshine, but cool with the general northerly flow. Some hard frosts for April between Wednesday and Friday, widely down to -3c. and as low as -7c for inland parts of west Wales especially, so some damaging frosts after the early spurt of growth. Cool by day too in spite of the sunshine, temperatures struggling to reach 10c.
    [attachment=132669:Recm962 V cool bright frosts mid week.gif] [attachment=132670:Rtavn1082 cool ridge Thu.png]

    It looks as though another trough of low pressure will move down from the north-west late Friday into Saturday, but probably tracking to our east. Uncertainty then here, but there could be some further rain especially for the Midlands by Friday night, with west Wales likely to stay mostly dry. Less cool by this stage too, and we lose the air frosts.
    [attachment=132671:Rtavn1381 Tr to east late Fri.png]

    A rather unsettled look to the Easter period with a much more westerly spell setting in for Sunday and Monday bringing weather fronts swiftly across the country along with some spells of rain at times, but drier brighter interludes between. Breezy and temperatures only average at best.
    [attachment=132672:Recm1922 UNsettled Easter.gif] [attachment=132673:Rtavn2041 Unsettled rain EM.png]
  25. TonyH
    [b]Headline: More dry, very warm and sunny weather. Much cooler next weekend.[/b]

    All of us have seen very warm, sunny conditions over recent days, Saturday was exceptionally warm in west Wales, with most of Ceredigion reaching 20 or 21c, this being 9 or 10c above the late March average! Sunday is similarly Summer-like.

    More dry, very warm and mainly sunny weather for much of the coming this week. High pressure is currently centred over the North Sea dragging up this warm continental air from the south-east. Over the next few days the high gradually edges west, and is centred over England by Wednesday. Temperatures reaching between 16 and 20c widely, this probably lasting up to Thursday, perhaps even 22c in places, with west Wales most favoured again. Unusually warm for March, and close to, but not quite an all- time UK March record- we need 25c somewhere for that. Fog and low cloud could be problematic over the Midlands on some of the mornings, especially early in the week, just as it has over recent mornings. Rural areas could just about see a touch of ground frost mid week, what with the clear nights being quite lengthy still .
    [attachment=132562:brack0 another Ex Warm March day Monday.gif] [attachment=132563:Recm482 Very warm sunny Tue.gif]
    [attachment=132564:brack2 H slap bang over UK Wed.gif] [attachment=132565:Rtavn661H over us Wed.png] [attachment=132566:Rtavn8417 very warm spell goes on Wed.png]

    Changes from Thursday, with the high shifting west into the Atlantic, this having the effect of switching the wind to a much cooler north-westerly. The cool down should hold off until Friday however. Probably more cloudy on Friday, with sunny intervals and temperatures down closer to average, reaching 12 to 15c.
    [attachment=132567:brack4 retrogression cool down imminent.gif] [attachment=132568:Rtavn1021 retro Thu.png] [attachment=132569:H west cooldown Fri.gif]

    Next weekend keeps the dry spell going, high pressure remains close to our west, and there will be a chilly north breeze, so much cooler than this weekend, maxima of just 10-12c. Sunny spells by day but could well be slight frosts overnight.
    [attachment=132570:Rtavn1501 cool H Sat.png] [attachment=132571:Rtavn15617 much cooler dry Sat.png] [attachment=132572:Recm1682 chilly dry weekend.gif]
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