Mark_p
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Posts posted by Mark_p
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Going up to see friends who live in the Lake District for a few days. I'm looking forward to seeing the fells snowcapped.
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The amber warning in North Wales is until 15:00 it's embarrassing for the Met and Flintshire council for sure. For our region I suppose it depends on how the rest of the day pan our re: potential disruption over high routes to see if Amber was justified. I always try to give them (Met Office) the benefit of the doubt because we all know how difficult snow forecasting is in the UK but they have had a shocker this winter with just not responding to the reality unfolding in front of them. I'm thinking of the December South Lakes snow event (lack up upgrading warning till far too late) and today.
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It's a shame how close this was to being good.
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Some big snowflakes are making it to the surface here now which is pretty nice to see in daylight I suppose.
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It's turned a bit sleety in heavier precipitation so that's a positive sign for those with elevation. I guess it shows some evaporative cooling is taking place. I don't think it will be enough down here though.
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Not even marginal here just rain. DPs too high. Met Office automated apps do go for it turning wintry. Just raining in places like Bala in Gwynedd that are under an amber warning so it's a failure for them at this stage.
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We all need to manifest GFS.
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There will still be a nowcast element to this. The radar will tell us more when we see how substantial the precipitation is and how fast it’s moving north. I admit I am hopecasting
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Day 10 I hope you’re right, it would be nice to see some snow from a frontal feature.
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Automated forecasts for here and work are going for temps between 1-2 degrees and 6+ hours of sleet
can it correct south now please
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Let’s see what the met office go for this morning. I’d love to be a fly on the wall in their meetings. I’m still going for a grim cold rain/sleet day here. Car frosty this morning for the first time in a while.
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The met office warning update tomorrow will be interesting it's all very knife-edge stuff as the deep dive video posted above implies. My thoughts are for disruption over the higher routes Pennine routes could be quite an event with elevation. I think they will keep the yellow warning for low-elevation land to cover their bases but will it be needed? A lot of this setup says cold rain to me or a mix of that and sleet/snow in heavier pulses imby. I'd be delighted to be wrong of course. I love battleground snow even though they are so rare now but there are winners and losers in such setups. As a caveat I cannot remember the last time I saw sustained midday frontal in this part of the world. In most winters daylight snow at all is rare
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That's not an xc weather observation you'll see very often. It's not too bad here - certainly windy but not the same reports as other parts of the country yet (and hopefully not.) Edit: I posted this then house has started ratting in a bit gust.
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Isha is certainly a powerful low-pressure system. I can't remember a time seeing such a widespread amber warning from the Met Office (I see they've split it into 2 but still all amber.) Met Éireann has gone for 'status red' on the northwest coast of the republic.
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The convection is pretty wimpy, unfortunate. Last nice day tomorrow before the rain returns, seems to love focussing on Saturdays does north west rain
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Check this out: webcam from Douglas Promenade, Isle of Man. This air is COLD. Sea level snow
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I've been trying to work out why GFS was (and still is) showing a precipitation signal for tomorrow afternoon/evening.
The apps aren't interested - Met Office text reads: Snow flurries may clip some coasts, more especially Merseyside, filtering into Cheshire at times. Their fax chart does show a convergence line across the Irish Sea over towards Wales and the Isle of Man but then valid at 00UTC:
Note the little convergence line pointing into the south of the region. Interesting. I'm hopeful to see some falling snow, maybe a cheeky dusting Failing that 
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Very impressive snow showers on the radar for northern Scotland, Orkney islands. Been a while since the Irish Sea has produced very heavy echoes like that in a snow event.
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Radar is incorrect now for ormskirk there’s no precipitation here at all now. Snow is partially melting though remaining on grass and so on. Feels cold out still.
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Belting it down in ormskirk still. Marginality can’t be far away though. The radar is incredible.
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Oh good lord what a journey to work haha
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From the kitchen window just.
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We’re slowly getting to the point where it will cause disruption (such is the infrastructure in our country but anyway
). Looks like more than 5cm now bright echoes incoming, wondering how much we can achieve.
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Definitely a nowcast. Irish Sea showers are still forming, the precipitation over Northern Ireland is further south, could very well be rain for low levels if it comes this way. Who knows though.
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Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards
in Northwest Weather Discussion
Posted
The fells look good hoping to get out tomorrow for some photos, today very much an indoor day hah.