[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017]

17 minutes ago, Singularity said:

I must admit I'm struggling to remain calm in the face of these GFS runs that just won't turn the westerly momentum down in the Atlantic-Europe sector. Well not far enough west for us to escape, anyway.

  
Thankfully when we compare the bile-inducing GFS run (left) at day 6 and compare it to UKMO (middle), we find that the latter has the low S of Greenland weaker, further north and with more of a ridge in between it and the trough by the UK, which itself lacks the shallow disturbance on S side that GFS has decided to introduce. All four of those things indicate a setup less conducive to the low S of Greenland storming east and hammering us with considerable force.

Of some interest is that GEM has managed to slow the low down a good deal further, but this does seem a bit out-there at this stage. A shame because that run is the first in a while to turn out pretty good next week;

  

If ever we have needed GEM to be leading the way in spotting some very warm/hot weather potential, it's now! Everybody prepare to clutch those straws 

 

I do wonder, though, if the model output can be trusted much at all beyond even 4 day's range at the mo, given some pretty odd looking MJO projections and the fact that the observed MJO took a marked step into phase 5 on the H-W diagram yesterday when most models had a move into the COD (central circle that represents weak or indistinct MJO activity):

I can't remember seeing all the models depict such a there-and-back evolution of the MJO before. I've seen GEFS do something similar in phases 8-1-2 before but that's as close as I can recall.

Terrible weather on the way over the next two to three weeks with very cold stormy autumnal weather. I agree that there is likely to be flooding across England. No sign of jet stream moving north. This is going to end up like 2007 wish a washout end of July and rain for the whole of august. Nightmare models for heat lovers like me.

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017]

11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

There is also support from the GEFS 12z for high pressure to build in during early August with increasingly warm, dry sunny weather across the uk so the op isn't alone..and there are others which show ridging too..hopefully a growing trend! I'm not even bothered about anything hot.. anticyclonic warm and sunny would suit me following a changeable spell.

 

Two fine days this week followed by rain on Wednesday.  Brighter on Thursday with showers thereafter a cool and unsettled weekend. I don't believe the settled forecast for early august as it's too far off with poor gfs verification. Let's see at end of the week what the models say

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017]

Looking at the temps for next week it's going to be cold. It's 18 degrees now in Manchester it feels about 12

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017]

11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Talk about polar opposites! 6z and 12z poles apart! I think the 12z is nearer the mark though, similar to the UKMO run, though perhaps a bit more unsettled than it will end up. Let's see what ecm says.

This is hpwhy we shouldn't believe the GFS

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017]

Just as a predicted earlier massive downgrade of the heatwave to a 96 hour warm spells. Unsettled and cool all next week. I never believe the gfs 06z

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017]

it is amazing that one week ago the GFS was saying 10 degrees and rain  - now 24 or 25 degrees for Yorkshire and hot sunshine once the rain clears on Tuesday.

Hopefully the cut off low will stay and we will have a long hot summer with the Azores high settling over the UK. Lets see what the GFS 12Z shows.  Dont be suprised if there is a massive downgrade later. 

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017]

Very disappointing 06Z GFS run with the precipitation and pressure charts showing a lot of unsettled weath

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017]

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. this indicates a quieter period in the Tropics

[Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017]

From looking at the GFS output on the 00Z run, it appeared that a strong ridge was going to generate some heat next week However, there has been a complete change of heart in the 06Z RUN with the heat being swept away. It appears that the weekend is going to be drier and brighter than Tuesday to Friday of this week with some sunshine but a front appears to be going to arrive on Saturday night across parts of England and Wales. The longer range CFS models are indicating something drier and warmer for the second, third and perhaps fourth weeks of July but I think its going to become a disappointing summer with the Jetstream being particularly powerful and with the amplification from the Eastern US this is going to send more low pressure  systems our way next week. We need the Scandi and azores highs to join up to get some sustained dry and settled weather - I cant see us getting a Spanish plume again this summer.