AnvilCrawlers

14.5 is the high so far today,wet and windy and got soaked doing a 5 mile walk,rather this than the 34.7 on thursday though.

Read above post i put from Paul at ukww,the channel will kill the storm

The Temperatures across Northern France are now sufficiently high close to the coast for some Surface based storms to fire (these are utilising the energy and heat at the surface rather than firing from within the EML contained in the plume which has moved north. Temperatures of 41.4C and DP of 15.6C are enough with some moisture convergence along the north French coast to force the ascent (Synoptic scale forcing is not required here) The cooling i mentioned above required for storms over the UK is also not needed over N France as the surface and lower 1-1.5KM of the atmosphere is much warmer than over the UK (if you overlayed an ascent from Surrey over this Paris ascent the Surrey ascent would be shifted to the left with very little if any CAPE available until the cooling aloft takes place. The storm close to Rouen is generating frequent lightning, but it will not move over the English Channel or develop further north as its not routed or anchored to the EML but instead to the heated land over France. (This storm will hate the english channel, the others which formed from the EML do not care about the English Channel) Trappes 11Z Ascent, A rather dry and hot profile, but closer to the coast enough moisture and convergence to focus ascent. Verified by Satellite observations of -53 to -55C Paul Blight ukww

yup looks like wrexham gonna have some fun and games very shortly

14:00 Update Added back in Northern England to the 70% Risk area. Thunderstorms have developed in an area around the Welsh Marches in what appears to be an area of 925mb, 850mb confluence (SSW winds over SW England and increasing SSE backing SE Winds over England) This confluence focusing the moisture within the western edge of the plume as it advects Northwards. These storms further developing as they move into NW England as the rest of the afternoon progresses. I now have something of a headache, The Hirlam 06Z has this area as the main area of development, EURO4 has the area to the east of Greenwich and the Arpege and AROME models are somewhere between. No one model is handling the plume completely correctly and its very complex thermodynamic structure and subtleties in Temperature, Dewpoint and Wetbulb. I like aspects of the HIRLAM, but suggest its probably overdoing the convection a little bit, I also think storms will fire in the plume over England during the afternoon, but it wont be until this evening that there is sufficient uplift, cooling and spin from the trough and the 925/850mb confluence zones will also be aligned to take advantage of the very high 20-23C Theta-W 850mb plume fromPJB UKWW

a cap basicly stops clouds towering and forming thunderstorms,i'm sure some one with better knowledge that me can explain better.found this Cap (also called "Lid") A layer of relatively warm air aloft, usually several thousand feet above the ground, which suppresses or delays the development of thunderstorms. Air parcels rising into this layer become cooler than the surrounding air, which inhibits their ability to rise further and produce thunderstorms. As such, the cap often prevents or delays thunderstorm development even in the presence of extreme instability. However, if the cap is removed or weakened, then explosive thunderstorm development can occur. The cap is an important ingredient in most severe thunderstorm episodes, as it serves to separate warm, moist air below and cooler, drier air above. With the cap in place, air below it can continue to warm and/or moisten, thus increasing the amount of potential instability. Or, air above it can cool, which also increases potential instability. But without a cap, either process (warming/moistening at low levels or cooling aloft) results in a faster release of available instability - often before instability levels become large enough to support severe weather development.

Torro map

Torro - the UK's Tornado and Storm Research Organisation 4 mins · TORRO TORNADO WATCH 2019/005 A TORRO TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 13:55BST on Thursday 25th July 2019 Valid from/until: 13:55 - 23:59BST on Thursday 25th July 2019 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Ireland: Parts of E Wales Parts of the Midlands N & E England S and E Scotland THREATS Tornadoes, perhaps strong; hail to 60mm diameter; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning SYNOPSIS Scattered elevated thunderstorms are initiating over Herefordshire and these will move quickly north, with a risk of becoming severe in the next hour or so as they become more surface-based. Other storms are likely to form over parts of the Midlands and N England, all moving north at around 40mph. Shear will be sufficient for storm organisation, including supercells - any supercell would take more of a NNE track. Low-level shear is expected to be fairly high, especially later this afternoon/early evening - enhancing the tornado risk with any supercell which can develop. There is a small chance of a strong tornado, given the shear/instability parameter space. Large hail is also likely with any supercell which can form, perhaps 40-60mm diameter. Other thunderstorms are forming near Hitchin and will also move N or NNE, perhaps becoming severe with attendant risks as above. It should be noted that, as always, many places will miss the storms entirely - overall, the highest risk of the hazards mentioned above appears to be over parts of the N Midlands and N England. Forecaster: RPK

33c here at 1pm,sweltering in me narrowboat and does look like we may get shower in next couple of hours as a lot more cloud has arrived now.

30c hit at 11am

WooHoo can see it flashing away now

currently sat waiting patiently for storm to arrive in warwickshire

Looking at they way storms are going,looking like warwickshire will miss out again

Im exactly the same,i get so down its unreal when nothing happens

Just got let out of work early and looking good towards the SW

They Got From 18:00 hrs are we expecting storms to kick off that early? I'm guessing the midlands be around 22:00 hrs.

virtually cloudless now,the cloud dissipated quickly once sun appeared

Seem to be opposite here,completely cloudy till around 9 and now more and more cloud breaks as i type,seems to be breaking up nicely

Sun trying to breakthrough now

Dam These storms,when i want them to move west they go east and when i want them to go east they go west.it like they just go either side of me here.unbelievable.

I Just Hope It Can Cover where i am and i can get lightning all around me,with it covering northamptonshire and leicestershire as well as me in warwickshire.

Seems Ireland Doing Ok with 52 strikes i notice

TORRO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 2019/002 A TORRO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH has been issued at 23:45BST on Monday 24th June 2019 Valid from/until: 23:45 - 10:00BST on Monday 24th/Tuesday 25th June 2019 for the following regions of the United Kingdom: SE England E Anglia Parts of the E Mids, Lincs, and the east of Central Southern England THREATS Hail to 20-30mm diameter; wind gusts to 55mph; frequent lightning; local flash flooding. SYNOPSIS An upper short-wave trough is approaching southern Britain. Atop a cooling boundary layer, strong theta-w advection is occurring from the south-east as the 850 hPa flow backs into the south-east and increases, due to the approaching upper trough. Lift from the approaching upper trough is steepening mid-level lapse rates and inducing convective development from this elevated moisture plume across N France. Wind shear through the cloud-bearing layer will be conducive to rightwards-propagating MCS development (relative to the mean tropospheric flow), and cells within evolving mesoscale complexes may develop mid-level rotation. Any such cell will bring the risk of large hail to 20-30mm diameter, whilst any linear elements could promote strong wind gusts, although the elevated nature and moist boundary layer may limit this somewhat. The high moisture content of the plume will also allow for some intense rainfall rates, with an attendant threat of local flash flooding. To the west of this area, showers and perhaps one or two thunderstorms are also possible, especially across parts of the W Midlands and E Wales later in the night - which may also bring a flash-flood risk. Overall, this region has a lower risk of thunderstorms and hence severe weather - it is a non-zero risk, though, but a lack of organised activity due to the best instability being further east precludes issuing a watch, even though a local threat cannot be ruled out. Forecaster: RPK.