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John Michael How

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Posts posted by John Michael How

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, terrier said:

    Well the gfs turns on the blow torch conditions next week. But then thankfully around the weekend of the 14th/15th of July we could see some much needed rainfall. We really could do with some rain now. Especially for the farmers etc. 

    Sods law if it happens then when I'm off for my birthday the 15th is the famous St Swithuns Day 40 days and nights rainfall-  which if it did happen would mean game set and match for the dry weather as last year proved the only time I've ever seen rain on 15th July here in Kent!

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

    July 2006 was probably the best summer month I could’ve ever asked for. What made it so good was the low humidity, which gave it a Mediterranean type feel, and just beautifully unbroken blue skies for weeks on end! 

    This setup is beginning to look distinctly similar. 

    Twas an amazing summer my grandparents from Mauritius were over and even they were saying how hot it was!

     

    On another note could Navgem be leading the way?Lol someone mentioned recently that it rightfully forecast the july1st record temp at Heathrow of a few years ago days in advance and stuck to it's guns when all the main models didn't want to know?

    • Like 6

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 26/03/2018 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Yes I think they will confirm it was Gravesend, Heathrow close second. I noticed that central London was a degree cooler for most of the day today, quite strange that. More of a humid feel today and cloud did bubble up in the afternoon, still very pleasant though.

    Thanks for the heads up.

     

    I started and have ended the day in Gravesend where I live but I was at work through the day mostly around Surrey and Heathrow( twice) earlier and a little drive to the chilterns which was lovely windows down, all the pollen blowing around was a bit of a irritant) but its better than my usual drive into the big smoke of central London that I will be back doing tomorrow. It's funny how it's always the same 3 or 4 locations that record the highest temperatures depending on the wind direction. 

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion 14/04/18

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I live in Gravesend and have been to Heathrow and central London today as a driver I can confirm it felt a lot warmer than the low 20s this afternoon. And tomorrow's meant to be a fair bit hotter still! Although the SE admittedly has naff winters in general I must admit we do ok in summer being pretty sheltered from the Atlantic influences that you northerners know all about. Let's hope we get some warmth for all parts. I remember in the September 2016 heatwave when Gravesend recorded 34c either the arome or arpege did very well with temp predictions I'll  be following those models more closely now I think after today

    Screenshot_20180416-164347.png

    • Like 3

    Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by John Michael How

    5 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    Yes, as always we have to wait. Latest GFS shows a typical MJO phase 7 chart.

    z500_p7_04_1mon.png

    GFSOPEU12_384_1.png

    Out of interest what does the high pressure look like? The pink or blue areas?I'm travelling to Mauritius on Friday in the vast pink section- hoping their unusually wet summer has come to an end! Abnormally warm SSTs have meant an even warmer than average late summer there?????‍♂️

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

    I wouldn't care at all either if I was going to enjoy the sun in Mauritius lol whereas we'll be stuck here in cold rain showers. :wallbash:

    To be fair they have had a very wet summer over there with lots of big storms just hope it's improving! Atleast it won't be COLD rain tho if it does ? it's greatly affected by the SSTs being such a small island the temps are close to 30c currently well above the usual high of 28c in contrast to our bellow average SSTs here. Will be out attempting to catch marlin and record size tuna so I hope it calms down there! 

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 03/03/2018 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    3 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

    Just had a nice walk down to Sainsbugs, Lee Green, was able to take my light jacket off halfway, as it felt quite warm in the sun. Even the "Big Issue" man looked happy, rather than the last few times I've seen him, poor blighter looked frozen solid, last week.

    Regards,

    Tom.

    Is it still the rather enthusiastic Romanian looking guy I used to work around there at burnt ash hill- I give him his due he is persistent lol. I guess the weather in his country experiences more extremes than here though. One of my neighbours cars got stuck during beast 1 and a Romanian man came to the rescue and helped her narrowly avoid sliding into another car apparently this sort of weather is common in his part of the world plus 10c colder still he said

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