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Cog

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  1. Cog
    With wobbles on that sort of scale, I'd guess it's mainly just due to effects within the region of the hurricane itself. Over open sea it'll spin in a more perfect circle, but as it passes over islands one quadrant will be trying to spin faster than another, and the momentum in that is going to set up the wobble.
  2. Cog
    I'm not seeing it. Looks more or less dead on the same line as yesterday. It lost some intensity over Dominica, but once it's another 30 miles or so ahead it's looking like it could re-intensify again very quickly. Mission into Maria is on its way back and mission 4 is already on its way. Last recorded dropsonde reading was 943, I reckon mission 4 could find 930 on their first pass. (Image source : http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&mapping=cesium)
  3. Cog
    And if it sticks to the forecast path and passes straight west over the islands, there are some very hot waters for it to cross. It looks a bad place to be really. If it tracks North along the Leeward islands, that's terrible news for the people already hit by Irma. But if it stays further west, as far as I understand there's very little chance of it weakening before it gets to Puerto Rico or the Dominican Republic. (Image source : http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/contour/ )
  4. Cog
    Another image of the eye forming.
  5. Cog
    Around the time the Maria hits the Bahamas, ECMWF is showing the pressure a good 40hPa lower than the GFS, but both models are more or less in agreement on the path. It's interesting to see the remnants of Jose could still be stubbornly sticking in the same spot even as far ahead as next weekend if the models are to be believed. (At least until Maria comes along and hoovers up what's left of it.)
  6. Cog
    Over the past couple of days, the models have been shifting farther and farther to the west. It looks like New York might be in line for a bit of a soaking at least. (Source on image: http://www.wjhg.com/templates/2015_Fullscreen_Radar# Although I'm not sure what specific models those tracks represent.)
  7. Cog
    If anything, the message to take away from this is just how narrow an escape they had. When you look at the overall path of Irma, the difference between the potential cat5 landfall on Miami, and what actually happened, could boil down to a 50 mile diversion towards the coast of Cuba.
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