ScottishSnowStorm
-
Posts
81 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by ScottishSnowStorm
-
-
GEFS 0z has more members than the 18z going for sub -10 uppers at 850hpa in fife scotland so a step forward on there and ECM looking better
Hopefully we can keep seeing upgrades and the block getting into Greenland and not collapsing as there is plenty cold uppers to tap into over russia by this point
-
2
-
-
Wednesday could get really interesting from how this BBC weather reporter is talking
-
7
-
-
UKMO 144hr 850 temp chart we see the 0c line move well away and lots of scope for prolonging the cold spell further
-
2
-
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
UKMO 144hr chart looks really good
-
11
-
The low definitely looks further south on the 12z
Cold air looks further south as well and the cold pool looks to be just a little stronger
-
2
-
1
-
-
ICON 12z has the 0c temp line a little further south over northern spain than the 6z so hopefully an early good sign
-
1
-
-
Hopefully this just turns out to be the same as the easterly is going too far south incident we had and over the next 24hrs things get back to how they were looking earlier on
-
1
-
-
Is what we are seeing in the output now because the whole of the PV has been shunted into russia and placing too much pressure on the blocking to allow any easterly winds to exert thereselves on our side of the hemisphere?
-
6 minutes ago, Reverse Zonality said:
GEFS all over the place if you look at it from a nationwide perspective. The op run is one of the milder solutions for the south, but not an outlier. It becomes a mild outlier in the mid-term for central areas and in FI a notable cold outlier for the far north.
A crumb of comfort for southerners is that if the low is being overdone in terms of strength by the GFS and in reality it weakens further south than forecast, the GEFS wouldn't be picking that in the ensembles until it was resolved, in which case you'd see a trend back to cool/cold. Similar to what @Quicksilver1989 mentions in point 1 of his post
I sympathise that the 18z ensembles look poor for the south though, no getting around that.
Strange how it can be the milder option down south but one of the colder here in scotland till nearer the end of the run how often can that happen?
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:
Right compared to yesterday some themes are now starting to emerge.
1) The Azores low is going to take a northwards path towards the UK
2) There is potential for mild air to make inroads this evening.
However on closer look things are pretty unchanged from this morning. The 18z ensembles for example still show plenty of runs with cold air winning out down south. Up north there would be many snow showers (or persistant snow in the runs where weather fronts push further north). Anyway I've updated my graphs showing different scenarios again.
Clearly the only thing on here that has changed is that a scenario where the cold pool covers the whole of the UK till saturday appears much less likely now.
However as I mentioned earlier, battleground scenarios where the UK is still under continental air will still see snowfall even if uppers are less cold.
The number of runs supporting a scenario with colder air hanging on until saturday remains unchanged.
Two things could work in our favour:
1) The low weakens as it moves towards the UK and therefore its northwards movement is stunted
2) Northerlies from the Greenland high set in more quickly and keep the warmer uppers away from us.
Both scenarios are very plausible still. A third scenario is that the low remains well to our south but that I think is a low possibility now.
I looked at a group of ECM ensembles, 6 showed milder air taking control by saturday, 16 kept colder uppers over us at the same time.
You could say that the ECM has caught up on the fact that low pressure is coming up from the south but whether this wins out is far from certain. In simple terms ECM is catching up to the GFS. The ops have favoured milder air winning, but that could easily change. The 00z's could show cold air still over the UK by next weekend.The 18z ensembles don't even look to keep the cold here in the scottish central belt
-
- Popular Post
The UKMO fax charts yesterdays 12z 96hrs todays 0z 84hrs and todays 12z 72hrs all for this tuesday and the high over scandinavia is being upgraded every chart and so is the bank of sub 510 dam air spreading through europe
-
11
-
ECM snowfall charts from just the operational (master) and the control at day 10 and from the looks of the control it takes the low into france so a big change just between them and hopefully the control is right with this one
-
1
-
-
I wonder what the spread is in the ens from cold v warm perspective maybe 25-13?
-
More spread at the end of run compared to the 0z and mean a little less cold but the op is way off towards the end
-
Isn't there going to be a point in the models once the block pattern is in the reliable they start to look for the breakdown but it doesn't mean they are right?
-
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:
ECM mean already shifting the cold air much further north than yesterday's run (right)
That because they are both a day apart
-
1
-
-
The GFS and GEFS showing quite a few warmer runs for the south next week but the ensembles and tabluex for here in fife central scotland show a different picture
Wouldn't need much correction to keep the colder air further south and hopefully it goes that way and not further north
-
3
-
-
ECM day 10 mean and a complete circle of easterly winds over the northern hemisphere
Would be a bit better if it was further over our side of the hemisphere to keep pulling those deep cold uppers across the land and into europe
-
3
-
-
Been watching the models for 8 years and seen a lot of great charts but to see all sorts of ridiculous charts this past week from easterly winds stretching from alaska to florida to complete reverse zonality it has to be said this chart tonight is just an utter thing of beauty and would be awsome to see something like this verify in my lifetime
-
6
-
-
7 minutes ago, Timmytour said:
I've often heard that said but have often wondered how then the bitter cold that places like New York get subject to every now and then seem to be so easily moved aside? Didn't have a max temperature over zero for the 8 days of this year but by the 11th the temps were 12C max and 5C min.
Isn't that because alot of time they get really cold air moving through it is from a high pressure already sinking and moving through the country where as this is an actual block setting up
-
17 minutes ago, The Eagle said:
High resolution 00z NMM to Monday night (temp 850 hpa)
It's amazing how consistently this model is showing that deepest cold air heading straight for us
How reliable is this model?
-
4
-
-
2 minutes ago, mrmonopoly said:
Not really snowy in south wales on the GFS that I been looking at. Looks pretty sunny but freezing. I am still confused about the azores low people keep referencing on the runs it pushes the cold back out to over the continent
ECM shows a possible period of snow working across from the east maybe one to watch
-
2
-
-
8 minutes ago, Ayrshire weather said:
I'm new to all this model runs ect...
What are the times of the runs I have gathered GFS is around 6am, 4pm and 10pm however the rest seem to be spread out?!
Also I hear of GFS operational runs... Is this a side kick run to the main GFS?
Hope I'm not annoying anyone just looking to boost my knowledge as a newbie to all this
3:30 am GFS, UKMO, GEM 0z
6 am ECM 0z
9:30 am GFS 6z
3:30 pm GFS, UKMO, GEM 12z
9:30 pm GFS 18z
-
Literally looks like it wants to swallow up the whole UK
-
1
-
Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Decent upgrade here on the ECM eps from the 12z although the op was on the colder side