BlackburnChris
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Posts posted by BlackburnChris
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The Milder air reached its northern extent and retreated , its sticking in blackburn now and most of NW judging by my taxi ride home ...
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1 minute ago, Spah1 said:
Don’t say that the MO warning goes into Scotland surely can’t be that far out.
I hope it changes , But once they start correcting South it usually continues . Thats why the people in the Midlands are getting excited in the Model Thread ,
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If ECM is anything to go by , North of Manchester could miss out totally on Thursday / Friday .
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Just now, Stuie said:
It`s still a big Q, LP in the North sea is key.
I think that front tomorrow will just come down to radar watching .... And probably further East you are the better ...
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Aprege has another band behind it but , it does't do a lot with it and breaks it up as it moves South ...
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28 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
Mike there's nothing like the Atlantic running into an NE flow to cause absolute chaos, is there!
Where is FI right now? T24? T36?
T-6 I think lol , Gfs has this band of Snow tomorrow night being widespread , but i'm not even convinced that will happen ...
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Even though , the 850's don't look great , If you look at the Precipitaion Type charts , All them fronts fall as Snow way from the far south Coast ..
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From my point of few,, Gfs seems to want to topple the block that builds around 7th/8th , but doesn't seem to have a clue what to do after , maybe it just going back to default ... Even if the SSW doesn't effect us directly , im pretty sure the +384 chart would look different to the one currently shown ...
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get the feeling somethings happening .... Feb could be a coldies dream this Year ....
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The Pennines are killing the Precipitation , it just dies out as soon as it hits them ...
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15 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:
How's it looking for today does the flow go back to a NW
its all gonna happen between now and mid day tomorrow , after that showers are gonna drift back to the coast as the flow direction changes ...
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6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
How we looking @BlackburnChris
about 5 mins after i posted it started Snowing in my area , and still snowing now /
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Looking like its all starting to move over the more Northern parts of our region now , so Preston , Bolton elc look to get something over next few hours
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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:
Yep and here's the control
I think we will see the models starting to correct in the morning .... but gonna get some sleep first .. night mate
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exactly look at the angle ... 18z going South ...
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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
Indeed.
If there's one thing I've noticed about the ECM it's that a progressive op run tends to drag its ensemble suite with it.
yeah 18z gfs on a sunday night isn't much better haha . but in my eyes seriously , given whats in front of it , that low as no choice but to go further and further South , Ite UKMET is on the southern side of the guidance
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Just now, CreweCold said:
Adds weight to the argument that the 12z was a progressive suite in all honesty.
I agree , lets wit till morning and see what it brings ..
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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:
ECM 21z ensemble mean is an improvement even at 90 hrs. The Greenland HP is stronger and the LP has backed west by about 100 miles or so
You can clearly see it struggling against the HP in that image
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Just now, alexisj9 said:
Yes but it's the tropical nature of it, models always struggle with how they interact with our systems
yeah ,depends on the forcing and there;s substantial high pressure over Greenland at the moment compared to the autumn tropical storms , so my instinct is it will go further and further south over the next few model runs .
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1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:
Probably a reaction to the new tropical invest, don't if it's developed further, further south.
From what i can work out the Tropical Invest is the system from the SW ....
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5 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:
Whilst some snow would be nice, I would be more than happy with just a frost as that is something we still haven't had yet. Going by the forecast, it does indeed look like we'll be getting some frosts.
After such a mild/warm year, it's nice to finally have something different.
Pretty sure you can garentee that this week from Tuesday night onwards ....
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17 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
Let's not forget that this set up dumped several CM of snow over the Midlands
Uppers nothing special at all. The LP even gave a couple of CM here at the N extent.
Was thinking Storm Emma , but just remembered that was 3 Months later ... At this time of yer the Cold air often does win out ...
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46 minutes ago, swilliam said:
could be some records broken if this came off. Looks like an extra tropical hurricane with 130km/hr winds separated by stillness in few km
Probably just a GFS special of course.
And its only at day 6...
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Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
have u got any pics ? sounds good up your way