Jason Edwards
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Posts posted by Jason Edwards
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On 19/12/2021 at 07:23, Winter Hill said:
Any chance I can borrow your Crystal ball please ?
Certainly, ill send it in the post
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On 19/12/2021 at 07:23, saintkip said:
Never ever again what a load of chugnutting rubbish
You are right...I said there would be a few days of cold....where in fact there isn't going to be even one
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6 hours ago, tight isobar said:
That’s a very negative assessment! And at the complete bottom end of scales
. A return to westerlys is simply untrue all round. Look at any given model and the northern hemisphere stamps all over ANY long play of mobile situ! I’m preety baffled by this post completely. We are very much still on the cusp of a cold spell- and still maybe a v- notable one.
Ensembles suggest a few cold days followed by westerlies.
Amazes me how people on here just never learn
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5 hours ago, Evie Aviation said:
I’m new, but even I know that this is based on your personal thoughts and not on any fact.. which is what I assume a model thread is for?
06Z run says otherwise and its backed up by being someone who has been a weather model analyst since 2008
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Writings been on the wall for a few days on this, ECM puts that writing in paint.
Low Pressure will simply pass over the UK as it always does in these situations, it will only be cold enough to snow in a line from Cumbria northwards in my opinion.
Every year this happens, as soon as you see cold modelling being pushed back on the charts its obvious which way it will go.
One only needs to see the Ensembles anywhere south of the Midlands to see this cold snap around 27-29 will be confined to Midlands North and a quick (but temporary) return to Westerlies follows.
Im not holding much hope for seeing a cold and snowy winter in the UK at all this Winter, those times have gone just isnt going to happen...ever.
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40 minutes ago, Severe Blizzard said:
Sorry to be OT but could not resist this little joke.
Just noticed the "Site Annoyances and Bugs" section. I am afraid I have a complaint - the weather maps keep showing this anomalous thing called an area of high pressure which always seems to sit over the Azores and has been particularly prevalent in the last three years, coinciding with the three worst years of rubbish weather I have ever experienced in my life and while living in Guildford. There must be a connection.
If this 'bug' could be removed, then perhaps we could go back to the pre-2015 proper weather where thunderstorms are not deflected eastwards all the time in the summer, missing the Guildford area, and perhaps there could be something other than zonal dross and missing out on the snow in winter.
BTW, winter 2017 / 2018 is the most frustrating, disappointing and unpleasant winter it has been my misfortune to experience. Even 1983 /1984 had more to offer than this crap-fest winter of weeks of coldish zonal misery, chilly damp dross and just enough rain to be a nuisance and stop outdoor activities (cycling) but not provide interest. Missing out on other hobbies like cycling would not be so bad if there was a decent quantity of snow and not just cold rain which subsequently freezes to sheet ice when the sky clears after the latest let-down, when southern areas miss the snow yet again, as in December. 'Disruption' (railways) would be better tolerated if it was due to an INTERESTING event like snow WHERE I LIVE and not yet more wind and trees down on the line (caused by other area's snow as in December).
Definitely not looking forward to this coming week. More wind, more rain in small amounts, more missing out on snow, more cancelled bike rides just when I have time off work to actually get out for a change. More frustration, more disappointment, more discomfort and more missing out on other hobbies that should be there to temper the meteorological inadequacies. Can't wait for this pathetic attempt a winter to end and good riddance come the spring.
Last measurable snow depth in Guildford was 1 cm on 12th January 2017. Last depth >5 cm lasting more than one day was in January 2013 (coming up for 5 years).
Last time hail was observed in Guildford was on 26th April 2017. 9 months could be the longest gap between a hail event ever recorded.
Last time thunder was heard in Guildford was on 22nd August 2017. Only 10 days of thunder heard in 2017, none of these were prolonged or noteworthy storms. Last decent thunderstorm was on 15th/16th September 2016 which I missed while away on holiday in Cornwall where there was just wind and drizzle.
Last time there was decent sunny & dry weather on holiday in Cornwall was in September 2015.Sorry to rant, but the centre of our problems down south is the 'Azores High' and its general morphology and behaviour. I think this Is this down to water salinity affecting the oceanic temperature distribution and positioning of high pressure bands governing the position of the jet stream and movement of depressions. In turn the movement of these depressions result in synoptic situations that never favour the S.E. for 'interesting' events. Heard one disturbing report that this pattern could be present for many years which would result in 'perpetual westerlies'. Furthermore, this westerly problem seems to accentuate the cloudiness and uncomfortable high humidity, without thunderstorms that are suffered every summer these days. Think I want to emigrate if this 'perpetual westerly' misery is a possibility as I certainly cannot put up with another vile winter like this one.
I couldn't agree any more ....im an avid runner (out 6 days a week) and this winter has been utterly shocking here in brighton.
Cold wet and windy (again).
Seems that theres been only a handfull of sunshine days since autumn and the wind is just endless.
Roll on summer.
Tbh i used to enjoy winters but im fast thinking i might become a summer fan instead.
Winters in the UK stink
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Remember the old saying...get the cold in first...well...
No point in getting bogged down into details this far out, there's always likely to be disturbances within the flow and it's great to see the whole of Europe in the freezer. I still think that the door to an Easterly flow is being opened slowly but surely as we head through December and into January when seeing charts like what we are seeing, the constant flip flopping from one day to another shows that things aren't behaving in the normal manner and that has to be a good thing as the normal manner usually involves HP over Azores and lows running over the top through the UK.
Even when this does show up on the models as per + 210 on tonights GFS
it doesn't seem to take long for the cold to find a way back...or the next days runs drop the return to westerly idea completely.
Enjoy the cold at the back end of next week and let's see where it goes from there
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I can smell an Easterly coming ......Atlantic dead in the water ...defaintely a chart loaded with potential from here on out..
prolonged cold spell looming perhaps
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I'm liking how the UKMO and the Control run of the 12Z GFS are very similar, especially given how the 12z GFS control run evolves.
UKMO + 144
GFS Control + 144
The Control then goes on to evolve into a fairly slack Easterly, but an easterly none the less, fantastic charts, will be looking at tonight's ECM with interest
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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
A return to Westerlies simply isnt true he said....on the cusp of a notable cold spell he said....
When will that be then ? Some time in the late 2020's ?