[Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer]

Are the 850 temps what is at 850 metres or am I wrong?... trying to understand the models better.

[Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer]

What will the pub runs produce... firecrackers

[Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer]

3 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Wonder where ANYWEATHER is?, the 06z GFS is his kind of run 

Can't be denied that it is a poor run with one or two exceptionally cold days thrown in there, especially next Sunday which would probably threaten a few local maxima records for that date

 

The 13th looks like a poor day too and although a bit far out this is getting closer to the reliable...

 

One straw to clutch is that a high to the north is often poorly modelled and this could easily just sink over the UK instead

So I think besides those opening two days the first half of June looks pretty lacklustre but heatwaves can pop up at very short notice at this time of the year so there is still no way we can write off summer yet and compare it to 2007 or 2012. A fair few of the Junes in the 1990s were stinkers but delivered some good heat later (e.g. 1990 and 1997) so no need to panic at this point.

It seems that all the heat that is usually over Spain is either being bottled up over Africa whilst low pressure over our part of Europe is encouraging heat over SE Europe for now.

What does that temp ananomly chart show us?... are the reds above avg temps and the blue below avg temps?

[Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!]

This is still spring, peeps stop wishing summer synoptics

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T 168, liking this

If cross polar flow is to be the outcome, this direction looks good!

I’ll be digging out the bobble hat and shovel in readiness

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

The ECM will come up with the goods I can feel it in my bones

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

The great thing about this upcoming cold/very cold spell is that we dont know exactly what we are going to get served up with regards to rain/sleet/snow and with the battle between the easterlys and the atlantic fronts and and also how the PV is going to behave its all very interesting and will keep me looking at the weather models for a few weeks yet

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

12 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Actually I should have been more careful with the terminology as some people use the term closed low to mean a cut off low which is a very different thing (a low surrounded by high pressure)

What I meant was the difference between an embedded shortwave trough and fully developed low pressure system.

A fully developed low may look far more ominous but an embedded shortwave trough will likely tighten the pressure gradient and bring storm force winds as well.

Essentially the further South it is the less chance there is of storm damage occurring

Hope that clarifies.

So as it rises north from the trough then it would become its very own seperate deep low on its own?