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SnoFlakeEar

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Posts posted by SnoFlakeEar

    Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:

    GFS seems to have binned what looked like an emerging cold or at least average signal on tonight's GFS 12z ensembles, when you compare to yesterday.

    chart(77).thumb.png.99d0341ec5eb61fefd30ff6a7f9644d6.pngchart(76).thumb.png.240d74b7a69d9e1f85b6175240983437.png

    There is a lot of scatter in the extended, but I'm really not seeing a cold signal here. Exceptionally mild from Sunday night through to the 26th, then something nearer average, but likely still a little above given the mild nights. There is a cluster of colder ensemble runs, but this doesn't look like anything more than the usual scatter you'd expect to see at this range.

    Of course, it will still feel cold, but I think people are in danger of losing perspective here. Even looking at very warm London stations such as Kew Gardens, the late January means on the GFS chart above of 6-7C are at least 1C above average. I've checked charts for elsewhere, and whilst the numbers differ, the general trend is very similar.

    Overall, the smart money for at least the current horizon of the model runs is that temperatures will be milder than average, and at times very substantially so.

    This is emphatically not a winter is over post, though. All of February is still well outside the reliable.

    ECM to compare and contrast later, of course...

    So basically to summarise your post standard winter fare for UK?

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, terrier said:

    So looks like the gfs pub run has certainly been on the lash tonight. Let’s see what tomorrow output shows. Fingers crossed for some sort of model consistency tomorrow. But what’s the betting toys & prams will be flying everywhere in the morning. Maybe we need an amber warning for flying toys and prams. In fact scrap that let’s upgrade to a level red warning 😂

    So what’s your thoughts on output tomorrow ? Continual down grades? Any charts to show how you think things will evolve;

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, KTtom said:

    Ive mentioned this before, those posting factual information on here are under appreciated and get drowned out by those seeking to be liked...

    Gfs in particular and UKMO seem to be going down the UK trough route for the turn of the year...otherwise known as the limpit UK low! No signs at all of any blocking setting up in a favourable location as yet.

    Even going out as far as day 10 the 2 main drivers in delivering a wet and mild winter to the UK are very evident..

    ECMOPEU00_240_1-13.png

    I don’t think people post for likes more they are posting their persuasion. It’s great to get a balance of coldies and people who are more realistic as to the probable outcome based on our mild climate. As you can see today next 10 days mild and damp for us in the South East and very few posts in here! We need something to chase hence being realistic is fine but so is to dare to dream of what could be. Merry Xmas all and thank you to everyone who posts in here for giving me such an insight into how this all works! 

    • Like 5

    Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Lol ICON 12Z is a total bust for any snow later in the week in the south and south west, GFS 12z isn't much better, the front just completely fizzles out. If it carries on panning out like this I'd 100% prefer last winter to this winter.  At least when its 13C there is no chance of snow. We must be into double digits now this winter the amount of the times the models have forecast snow in the 96-120hrs only to majorly backtrack, its really wearing very thin.....

    Think you may answered your own question there.  ICON 12Z maybe a bust but how many times have the models majorly backtracked in the 96-120 hrs period? So not all lost just yet? GFS 12Z keeps interest.

    • Like 3

    Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    52 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    192hrs ECM is again utterly sensational. 

    Really is about as good as it gets without having a super cold PV lobe involved with proceedings.

    I just wish the 72-120hrs was a bit more comfortable and not so ropey, then I'd be all in on the ramping.

    @kold weather thanks for the fantastic posts. For newbies what are the areas we need to be watching with regard to 72-120 hrs please?

    Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    43 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

    Only people will have forgotten as when the time comes the same posts will be getting made about another ten days time. I get what everyone is saying about patterns, trends etc, but until I see it forecasted on met office, BBC, my iPhone weather app or even the Norwegian met, then I’m not buying it I’m afraid. 
     

    Accompanying these excited posts are forecasted highs of 4c in glasgow on 23rd and 24th. Frigid it absolutely is not. Why does everyone fall for this still?

    If you only believe the BBC, your iPhone weather app  or the Norwegian met then why spend anytime on here where people are genuinely trying to interpret the models and explain what they believe will happen. Might as well stick your finger out the window.

    • Like 5
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