[Model output discussion 11/12/21]

Scandi high anyone? 

 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

showers look to be losing intensity now

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Showers clumping together between Scarborough and Brid at the moment

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

heavy showers heading straight for me 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Just now, Hullsnow87 said:

Are these shower ment to get heavier and stronger today ?

they already are, the north sea is looking more lively

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

are the winds turning more to an easterly? I can't tell if it's just my eyes deceiving me

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

1 minute ago, Eastyorks85 said:

What more worrying for East Yorkshire the radar showing some rain for here during parts of day cant be right surely? Just need some big flakes and for it to last longer then 10 or 15 mins get an decent covering. 

It's not going to rain today.

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Showers have become very light again here, hopefully that'll change soon

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

1 minute ago, oldmucker said:

Im sure there is a scientific/meterological reason but the flakes are just so small combined with high wind gusts it struggling to settle

It's because the air is so cold and dry, making it powdery snow instead of wet

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

7 minutes ago, York-snow said:

We appear to be in a gap between the lines of showers at the moment. Just our luck!

Typical! It does look like the southern band of showers is slowly moving northwards, it's now over flamborough head

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Here's hoping to have something in the York region, we've really not had anything decent all winter

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

27 minutes ago, cheese said:

A few more radar grabs from 1 March 2018, showing how the showers gradually merged into one blob. That’s definitely what we want to see happening:

:

 

Would much rather get a streamer effect like they did in the central belt of Scotland, they ended up with a red warning there

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

in FL, but it's trying to throw up heights into the atlantic and up into the Greenland/Iceland area here

 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

JFF but peturb 2 looks insane at 120

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168 and it is going under:

It's too rounded and is pulling heights up into Iberia, need it to be more elongated

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

20 minutes ago, Maltonman said:

Wouldn't worry about these precipitation charts yet,from my experience little features pop up out of nowhere nearer the time, so will be plenty of surprises I'm sure. Can always remember one around 2009 or 10 where there was a small area of snow sitting off the coast circling on the rain today radar one Sunday afternoon, it then moved inland and give Stamford Bridge(where I was at the time) a right dumping for a couple of hours. Wasn't forecasted either! Good luck guys ???

 

Same happened in York in 2010, I remember all the bus services were taken out of service because the snow was so bad

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Looks good for us in north yorks

fax120s (1).webp

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

1 minute ago, jayb1989 said:

Has been quite the trend for the Atlantic to really fire up towards the end of next week on the last number of runs. I’m guessing it’s mainly down to the extreme cold filtering down through the US that is likely driving a stronger jet stream? Disappointing in terms of getting a prolonged cold spell, but i guess we can’t really complain with a decent 4/5 day cold spell.

Let's worry about that next week. 

[Flood Watch]

22 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

River Ouse in York forecast levels

not looking great, really hope we stay away from the 5m mark

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

1 minute ago, Pray4snow said:

GEFS mean at 192h

 

That's pet2 ^ 

mean is this

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Scrap what i said earlier!!pretty atrocious after 144 hours and to be fair no real snowy opportunities before that anyway barr the the south east tomorrow!!with winter counting down we really cant afford anymore time wasting from the models and delays!!!i said it over and over again the real snowy charts are always 10 days and after and when they do get in the reliable they are watered down to such an extent its just back to normality!!

Time wasting from the models? they don't make the weather happen, they just try and predict it. It can be very frustrating, but don't go chasing day 10 charts if you're just going to be disappointed, as many have been saying on here for the past weeks. 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

FL scandi high incoming?

 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

Look at that WAA heading up into the arctic high

 

 

compared to the last run it looks a lot more organised 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Do we have the 850s for the UKMO charts do you know?