[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards]

Almost certain i saw a flicker of sheet lightning whip across this but no thunder and nothing on the lightning detector, guessing they don't pick up all flashes? Or i was seeing things

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February]

45 minutes ago, jon snow said:

The ECM 12z op is a real kick in the teeth for coldies regards later next week which indicates rather mild conditions at a time many of us are hoping for something colder?…indeed this weekend, the uppers (850’s) are much colder but even so, at the surface it’s 7-9c!…if this was winter with a possible easterly in the pipeline I would be gutted with this ecm run..but not so much in early / mid March!…roll on the warm spring sunshine  and thundery showers ⛈ ! …chasing phantom cold is not good for one’s health!  

You seen any signs of cold late october likely to verify yet? I don't add much to the forum but read daily and do admire your determination through the winter haha. But i am also now thinkibg if the high has to drop to far south east then atleast can we drag up some warmth and keep the cold air down towards greece rather than get mixed in if it wont be cold enough for snow. Still time for the odd northerly to give some short spells of snow if we get lucky. Probs get a short spell nailed at 12+ hours then the first volcanic eruption in scotland for about 3 million years or something blow it in a different direction.

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

How much wishfull thinking would this be?

 

Probably loads that will make that never happen that i don't know about as a newbie, let alone the fact it starts at d10

[General Volcanic Activity Thread!]

54 minutes ago, Hammer50 said:

With what is happening on the far side of the world in Tonga does anyone think this could mess with current weather models.

Nope, doubt volcanic activity will make a difference unless we get deep cold nailed in on all models at 24+ then something will probabily go cataclysmically bang in Iceland and shunt it all east.....

 

Will be interesting to see what differences it made down that part of the world though in compareson to what was modelled and what came to be after.... 

 

Interesting to see ecm looking to get rid of our high, i can't really see anything that looks most likely from my novice reading of cthe charts so gonna go back towatching you guys decifer them

 

 

[Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021]

 

Not gonna lie i'm bit of a newbie, but been watching that small area of high pressure look like it wants to exist on the gfs over last few days, and now shown on ecm and metO aswell, any hope of that having more of an influence than shown later in runs and getting a decent if breif northerly?

Does look like it eventually wants to sink southeast though

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

Hello Everyone

I'm usually in here every other day or so reading your comments on the model output and having a look myself, although i rarely speak as i'm a newby at fear if embaressing myself haha.

 

Anyway i have been watching the models this week before the flip, and i might be looking at them incorrectly but it did seem that the colder 850's air was decending into the north sea beyond where the isobars where heading between the south to easterly direction where turning and i would of then expected this to then start moving this northwest, i know the isobars are showing the surface pressure not the direction of travel further up but my question is what models should i be looking at to try to understand whats happening above, other than the jet stream well above, sometimes i look at things and think surely thats not possable but obviously i'm not seeing the full picture.

 

Re the model flip i'll go back to watching you all explain because i don't have a clue well i do a little bit but i won't post what i think incase i'm wrong haha

 

Thanks to all the regulars particularily those that post throughout the year not just the cold hunt learnt alot off you guys, would name you but i'll miss a few by accident then feel bad. Shout out to Jon snow and his enthusiasm though i do remember him looking for cold in FI around the end of summer or something

[SE, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 5th Sept 21 onwards]

Snowing in lowestoft when i left 30 min ago, surprising for me on the coast. only a sprinkle on grass and cars settling though, heading north and into north eat norfolk and just had a crack of thunder

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Went out to de-ice the car about 30 mins ago, and it was just wet........ like everything else out there lol but just went out again and all the water on the car is suddenly frozen........ no precepitation at the moment in Lowestoft but think the air just changed suitably for when it gets here.

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

That’s true, but I also think it can be a mistake to think of a SSW as a random event, it isn’t, it is part of a long term weather evolution over what can be two months long, and they are all different.  The thing they have in common is the sudden warming in the strat and the wind reversal at 10 hPa and 60N.  So that underlying high lat blocking in early winter (which didn’t do us any good, by the way) that caused the SSW was part and parcel of the weather evolution as much as what is happening now as we see the effects. And they are still uncertain...

Not related to the ssw but i thought the same when it looked like it should all be falling into place on the models in december but no really cold air was near us us to tap into, but if there was cold air to tap into the weather patterns would of often probably not allowed what was showing with stronger temperature gradients... 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

19 minutes ago, Blazerblue said:

Yep just saw it out west from my garden, of no use to me. Whereabouts are you, sorry can’t see it on your profile?

Working in Hepworth, it started raining for 2 mins and the whole thing pretty much vanished though

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards]

Tower forming inbetween Bury St Edmunds and Diss, with a hercules plane circling it getting data, moving W/NW, mostly west, wont be formed till it's left me though

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

55 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

Hi David, what's your location, are you near here? The first thunder I honestly thought there had been a car crash outside in the snow, it was only when I saw the lightning I realised what it was.

I'm in Lowestoft, nice to get some snow with it albeit not much......seem to of missed out on most of it during this cold spell.

[SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards]

4 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

What a night! We had very loud thunder cracks directly overhead as well as around half a dozen lightning bolts, I was really frightened and on top of that it was snowing at the same time and the light looked really odd in the snow! It looked like the air was about to catch fire. Its the only time I've ever seen  that in my entire life! Snow is everywhere on the ground now.

Net app didn't seem to pick it up but this did.... wondered what the hell was going on at the first strike lol