[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Still going here in Gloucester. Looking like around 3-4cms at the moment but it's been pretty heavy for the last 30 minutes.

 

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

Well for a long time today it looked like us in Gloucester would be one of those areas to miss out but it's absolutely kicked off in the last hour. Lots of rain now and seen a flash or two but honestly it's not very thundery - just lots of well needed rainfall (hopefully not too much - we have memories of that...) Much fresher feeling too with temps dropping 3-4c 

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

Just now, MrNooo said:

Very heavy pulses of rain here last couple of minutes, looking at the rain radar, just built out of nothing!

Was literally about to say the same thing. I'm in Gloucester so I'm guessing we got either the same thing or similar. Nice surprise.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

Hi, I'm new to this thread, what does sferics mean?

[Summer 2022 Chat]

4 hours ago, reef said:

Summer index for the top 10 summers since 1980 here:

2018: 295
1989: 287
2022: 281 (to 12th Aug)
1995: 279
2006: 278
2003: 271
1996: 265
2013: 262
1983: 261
1994: 257

Up the list it continues to go. Above 1995 now.

What's this data based on / source out of interest?

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Travelling back to Glos by train this evening from Surrey. Hoping the trees hold up just long enough!

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

We are none the wiser which way this is going. I have to say I do think the GFS output is the most sensible - but we need to see some consensus across the major models now whichever direction that will be. ECM being an outlier could prove to be important.

 

[Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown]

I don't think people need to throw in the towel just yet. There's clearly still different solutions on offer. Need to wait for more cross model agreement I'd say and I just don't think we have that yet.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

Quiet so far in Gloucester , temps at 4c with Dew Point at 2.8c. 

Really not expecting anything so if I wake up to a thin covering I'll be pleasantly surprised. Temps not quite right as things stand.

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

11 minutes ago, warrenb said:

So going by the mean we have 3 days of -5 before the high drifts west and the Atlantic comes up from underneath. For a good cold spell you want solid -8 to -10. Note the control and the Op both go warmer toward the end as the pattern backs west.

At the point they go warmer you are talking deep FI.

Are you chasing a mild chart at 384 hours?

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

4 hours ago, Man Without Beard said:

Well after looking at the latest ECM ensembles set, I'd say hold your horses before writing off next week. That Icelandic High is playing havoc with the UK set up, and as a rough figure, about 50% have a frontal snow event Tues/Weds somewhere across the UK as an Atlantic front becomes positively tilted against the Icelandic High - mainly midlands or north but looks the type that could land anywhere. Don't turn off your meteociels just yet, we're not done

 

[Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

I find this so surreal at the moment. I've been following the models for around 4-5 years and I've never seen model output quite like it. I do remember March 2018 but that was a short but sharp BFTE. Not like now where the entire GFS output is significantly below average throughout from start to end with plenty of time for snow to fall.

For those more experienced, are you finding this as surreal as I am, and have you seen this before?

Just wondering what response we will get from the weather orgs; Met Office etc and whether they'll start to hint at the current output.

[Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

And dearest netweather geeks.. I propose we all swear a solemn pact between each of us.... NOT A GOD DARN WORD TO FAMILY AND FRIENDS FOR NOW PLEASE!

I’m sure we have all been there

 

I once discussed with a work colleague how I was all into weather and the raw models and I've been learning on the ins and outs and then proceeded to proclaim it was going to be a cold winter with snow on the way.

Learned the hard way not to believe what you see too soon.

[Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas]

Been following the models for around 4-5 years but rarely post - everything I've seen and been reading is mostly positive. Don't remember often seeing these outputs in December if at all, pretty sure in the last few winters we've been staring at a bit of a zonal period in the run up to Christmas. Nice to see SSW possibilities showing too which'll keep the interest going no doubt. Looking forward to the next few weeks

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

8 minutes ago, Cuban Zebra said:

I’m sorry, but what does this mean?

You have to become fluent in "isobar", then it all makes sense :)

I'm actually a bit of a fan 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards]

#MyFirstPost .. Very happy to wake up this morning living in Gloucester to hear the snow line has moved south somewhat. Gonna be a night of lamppost watching I think