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smichling

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Posts posted by smichling

  1. Amazing sunrise here in Watford this morning. Not sure how well that picture will come out though.

     

    Lots of areas in the shade still had yesterday mornings frost in the evening so much of the ground will be able to hold this mornings frost throughout the day. This could make it much much easier for snow to settle than it was on Tuesday on a warmer and wetter ground. 

     

    C537A9C2-7E6D-4CC9-9D2D-6E6A70C7941D.jpeg

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  2. 2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Yeah, I can definitely something in the 970s for sure, even high end 960s. I'm not convinced its going 955mbs like the ECM 00z, and even less than some of the ensembles going down to 949mbs.

    Broadly with little lows forming in the subtropics they tend to be quite poorly forecasted (Having watched numerous ones this hurricane season, the models weren't the best) and that in itself has to for now put a big question mark on it. Of course it could well be right and I'll be finding my rowing boat and umbrella!

    Yes, having also watched the models on hurricanes they seemed really poor with them this year. Often reeeaaally overdoing it or reeeaaally underdoing it in terms of pressure. Maybe it’s a similar scenario here just for a winter storm rather than summer.

  3. I really like the fact that it’s corrected sooo far south and even missed south in fact. I think it’s like we’ve seen the Northernmost possibility and now the Southernmost possibility and so the eventual outcome should be somewhere near the middle of the two, which is hopefully right where we need it for maximum snow! The pendulum has gone one way and will surely go back the other way before coming to rest in the middle.

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  4. 49 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

    I’m back to Canada next month. Hot tub and snow all the way  ❄️ but still it’s nothing like snow in your own back yard. Hopefully you’ll get to see snow in the hot tub this winter

    I’m also heading off to Canada at half term. Jasper for a week and can’t wait! Not heaps of snow there this season but so cold that it’s not an issue 

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  5. 9 minutes ago, shotski said:

    Should we call time on this SSW and accept that it didn’t affect the trop in the way we was hoping for hopefully something else will pop up in Feb.

    I think that every event in the atmosphere, whether it be an SSW or whatever, has an effect on everything else so even if it didn’t immediately or directly affect the troposphere how we wanted, it would have caused something else to lead to something else etc etc. So if something did pop up in February or March or whenever, I think we could still say the SSW was helpful in assisting it. 

    Merely an opinion on the greater picture however and I’m only new to this.  (So new in fact that although I’ve been following the models for a while, I only really learnt about properly about the atmosphere in my Alevel geography lesson earlier today!) 

     

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