BlazeStorm
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Posts posted by BlazeStorm
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14 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
Stronger streamer development on Euro4. 10-30cm zone quite widespread. Looking promising.
2m snow depths in Scotland is pretty mental
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4 minutes ago, Backtrack said:
You can see it’s already starting to pivot even on that still. Probably won’t even get north of Birmingham
Yes, did not see that either. The pivot much more noticeable on the Meteo 3hr radar!
Will check again around midnight.
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4 hours ago, Had Worse said:Compared with the 12z GFS, this is 5 hours earlier than this
Not far from clearing Ireland now.
Could reach us in the early hours of the morning (3/4am) if it does not decide to track south.
Really appreciate you pointing this out. Looking promising!
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48 minutes ago, winterof79 said:
Changes affoot
Afoot of snow?
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Looks like the fun will start again Wednesday.
Cold will be modelled 100 miles further West. Somewhat of a battleground scenario.
Possibly.
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Can confirm Carol from the BBC has also suggested snow down to lower levels tonight
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13 minutes ago, bumpydogz said:
Nothing wintry in the south-east tomorrow so no radar watching required. Its miserable rain today, and will remain so for tomorrow.
Who spilt coffee on your weather charts?
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Keep the dream alive
Check the 3hr
https://www.meteoradar.co.uk/
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5 minutes ago, shaky said:
How is the snow potential for the weekend on 18z!!still there or all gone?
There's snow potential
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UK winters for the years '69-'70, '76-'77, '83-'84, based on the MetOffice CETs. Cool-cold months experienced in the UK during those winters.
1969 -110th coldest December - 3.3
1970 -105th coldest February - 2.9
1970 -56th coldest March - 3.7
1970 -60th coldest April - 6.7
1976 -47th coldest December - 2.0
1977 -133rd coldest January - 2.8
1977 -102nd coldest April - 7.2
1983 -289th coldest December - 5.2
1984 -128th coldest February - 3.3
1984 -125th coldest March - 4.7
1984 -44th coldest May - 9.9
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2 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:Cold Decembers in the US? I wonder how Decembers in Europe compared!
Interesting to see the Met Office UK CET ranking December 2010 as the second coldest in 334 years.
The third coldest December occurred during the last Grand Solar Minimum. And the coldest December recorded (1890) occurred during a rapid decline in sunspot activity, before recovering in the early 1900s.
Observations are now trending towards the next Grand Solar Minimum. Current sun spot activity alarmingly low.
Notice the total lack of solar activity in the last 4 months. CM predictions expecting the sunspot cycle to steadily climb. However the recent trend of weakening solar cycles prevails, and the increase in activity stalls.
For comparison, here is the sunspot activity for the last 400 years, since 1600.
If increases in sunspot activity are not observed within the next year, there is chance for a series of considerably colder winters in the years to come.
I'm all for a green, clean planet. But I struggle to accept humans directly control the climate. More inclined to agree that we are a contributing factor to the climate we experience.
It seems more and more plausible to suggest the sun, a ball of fire 1,300,000 times larger than earth and relatively close on an astronomical scale, directly controls and dictates the climate on our planet.
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A spec of snow showing South of Sheffield on the radar. And growing in 5 mins!
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1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:
As expected, rubbish come T216 with nothing cold even close. This pattern needs the big RESET button me thinks!!
If the perfect beast set up occurred it would take 2 weeks to get here it’s that far away!!Not sure I’ve seen such heights over Scandy without some sort of cold feeding round our way, totally blocked off on this occasion!!
But still, as far as a NH goes it looks messed up and surely has potential for late Nov...
I wouldn't worry about the Northern Hemisphere at T216. The next few days are unpredictable enough!
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Recall posting something towards the end of January flirting with the (daft) idea that winter will arrive just in time for the Game of Thrones finale, as HBO would have wanted. Shortly after, this post was removed by the mods. Now observing the charts there are indications (think ECM) that this may well be the case. Will be interesting to see what happens around Easter, equally interested to see whether this post also gets removed for suggesting something so absurd. Exciting times!
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1 minute ago, igloo said:instead of looking at charts at 11 days away charts in the more reliable time frame will be a lot more accurate and these charts below a quite shocking sadly
Instead, you might have misunderstood the 'Cold Hunt' thread.
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1 hour ago, Aiden2012 said:
Thanks
You should see a shower in about 20/30 mins!
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1 hour ago, Aiden2012 said:
So what time are we expecting the showers to get going?
Looking at the recent Met Office forecast on YouTube, earliest looks to be 10pm this evening, with consistent showers and a more organised band around 4-5am tomorrow.
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I can't help but feel that the model Gods are mocking us yet again... Here we are... 10 days away...
But it's nice to see you again ECM
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The GFS and I have some trust issues. Cracking run.
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1 hour ago, Paul_1978 said:
I can’t believe this thread is so quiet when we have some lovely looking potential north easterlies next week!
True... Nobody dares to call it?
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4 minutes ago, geordiekev said:
Things no where near like December's mild fest so we're still in the game and I'm hoping that models are doing what they normally do at weekends, before correcting on a Monday. Is there less data on weekends I wonder.
Shame it coincides when many of the doom mongers seem to be out, much like during Christmas hols, this place takes on a strange mood on days off when we hobbyists should be enjoying it.
If no improvement Monday then I'm resigned to waiting a few more days for the next rollercoaster, but at least we all have a ticket, just a shame theirs no height restrictions for those pram dwellers.
The models have been hinting at 'colder conditions' towards the end of runs since mid-late November. Therefore, I can appreciate the frustration others feel when the cold is continuously pushed back.
If this trend continues through to Spring, this will turn out to be one of the strangest winters I have ever experienced.
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10 minutes ago, Spah1 said:
Bored.
Been reading, hoping and anticipating since November.
Can’t be bothered anymore.
Amazing how those cold charts have just disappeared.
Back to square 1 at 216hrs on the ECM.
Looks like Feb when we might feel the full effects of the SSW.
Agreed. It'll snow when it snows, it'll rain when it rains.
I imagine myself and many others probably spend too much time concerning themselves with things like this, although it is human nature to desire anticipation of the unknown. Unfortunately, the models will never be reliable.
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Snow joke, I think it's coming...
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31 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
What the -24s 1000 miles north, can't see anything else? GFS T198
Like to see you put an argument forward that can't go wrong that gets that air here! Nice thought though.
I hope someone doesn't have to eat their words later...
Iceland would be surely feeling it !
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by BlazeStorm
Big time lurker here.
I understand the concerns and lack of trust regarding the GFS.
But given this is 4 or so runs in a row showing similar outcomes for Tuesday onwards next week, I think it holds some weight.
When I saw the GEFS Ensembles 3 or 4 days ago my spider senses were tingling, but I dismissed it.
Feeling optimistic about this one. Will this be remembered as THAT GFS? We'll see!