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Captain Jack Sparrow

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Posts posted by Captain Jack Sparrow

    Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    30 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    Looking, or rather skimming through the last x pages from late afternoon, reiterates why I do not spend too much time in here.

    Some of you for goodness sake have a walk outside,  watch the tellie, talk to a real person away from the pc. What you are watching is the weather models trying and slowly but surely, as they always do, come to a concensus about what is happening. Quite why folk worry about T+240 and beyond when most predictions by the models at that range are highly prone to change is beyond me. Deep cold is 85-90% likely to occur, it has never really been sensibly predicted by any of the more serious posters assessing the various outputs to occur before 23-25 February. That was two weeks out. Now within a week of the second date that is being refined to more like 25-26, so what? Get a grip and become realistic, they are models created by humans, are you perfect?

    end of jh rant.

    here is the latest link to NOAA 500 mb anomaly charts. This level, approximately 18,000 ft is far easier to predict than the surface, these are mean charts, but they are about 70-75% close to what occurs in about 80% of cases. Yes they are wrong at times but not often.

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

    To me, using them every day for about 7 years and during the winter for 10 years or so I cannot recall seeing charts showing any more solid northern blocking for the time scale they are showing, this for at least 3-4 days. That includes the deep cold much of the country had in late Novemeber-December 2010.

     

    Hi John

    You are one of, or maybe the most circumspect poster on here and your anomaly input is highly valued. So don’t get stressed out with what others are posting, or which charts they are viewing and their interpretations of such. You have been telling people for years not to get hung up on individual runs, but this is what many people on here do for fun. Let them have their fun! Each to their own, there is no right way to do this as the weather will remain as unpredictable as ever. That unpredictability  is what engages us all.

    • Like 4

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I have been following this forum for many years as a weather novice, but have learnt so much from it. I recognise names from the defunct bbc snow watch and have appreciated all the posts from the knowledgeable people on here that here that give their time and effort into providing weather predictions and forecasts. Thankless task as you will always get someone disagreeing with you. Fair play to you all and keep at it as this is the most fascinating and addictive forum on the internet. Well done Netweather and well done all you amateur (and some professional) forecasters. Keep it up. Que Sera Sera.

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