I've done research plotting all 10mb warmings going back to 1948, the greatest effect is always lagged after the event.
late October - November warming = -NAO 35-45 days later 80%
December warming = -NAO 30-35 days later 70%
January warming = -NAO 20-30 days later 70%
February warming = -NAO 15-20 days later 70%
March warming = -NAO 10-15 days later 65%