Ayrshire weather
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Posts posted by Ayrshire weather
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12 minutes ago, Sawel said:
Is that where you used to live before you moved to 'Giravn'?
It says "Girvan" should have been "evening in Girvan"
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Been quite a bit of snow this evening in Girvan South Ayrshire!
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Is there a Scotland regionl thread?
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5 minutes ago, Snowy L said:
That's what is so frustrating. The low has no backing from the jet yet it moves aside -15c air with the softest of nudges.
Still all to play for could be big changes by tomorrows 06z run!
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Personally i think GFS is having a hard time with all this! It's unusual territory for it and is clearly struggling been model watching for 4 years and not seen anything like this... To me GFS is just stuck and keeps making nonsense paths for the low pressure!
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1 minute ago, Freezing-Point said:
That would the the perfect transition. We all know what happens when the wind goes to the NE.
Sorry forgive as new to this but what normally happens?
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On a more enjoyable note this weather event has improved my health... ?
I now get at up at 6am every morning before I was very lazy so just shows how enjoyable weather can be and how much excitement has came with this beast!
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2 minutes ago, Reverse Zonality said:
GFS 18z has the low a little further north and west compared to the 12z
Not great as it moves more into line with the ECM 12z in bringing milder uppers from the south a little quicker on Friday. Just one run and all that!
I think GFS is slowely backing from this idea as it tries to forecast the Jet stream... The low is much weaker in this run and if that trend continues the low will most likely be killed off by Monday/Tuesday GFS runs
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GFS 18Z almost killing off that low at +120 much weaker than the 12z run!
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At a loss why 12z and 18z are almost identical yet almost 1 week away! Something not right here my guess is that models are struggling with the affects of the Cold and the second SSW effect its almost like the models have stalled and unsure how to progress!
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1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:
It's dragging milder air up from the Med. Follow the isobars. Direct feed from East being cut off for some areas. The trend is glaringly obvious now imho.
Sorry thats my fault still new to this think iv'e got this a but wrong mind u Scotland looks not to bad however most likely will change near time!
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ECMWF All good at +120 similar to its 0Z members!
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Second attack at +216 please forgive I'm new to this so a little unsure looks a mix between NE and E winds!
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4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:
Ecm @96..
And the back feed-cold looks well alingned ..as the flow is:
I think by now we can guess where we are heading....yet another peach in the making!!!
+120 looking good...
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Good if not very good so far at +120h with the Colder Air slightly more north while the Azores low slipped south! Hopefully this trend continues through the run!
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12z ECMWF now running so far so good at +72h
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+165 gets even better with everything more further west much colder Air over the UK compared with 0z run and looks like a second wave arriving from the NE
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Loving this run so far... The low to the Azores has been flattened out at +156h with slightly colder Air still over the UK compared with the 0z run!
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Still going well on the 06z at +138h not worried about the low at the Azores on this run everything is pushed a bit more west... Something hopefully the 12z run will continue this trend!
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Although not a huge change so far on the 06z run it does show slightly deeper cold and maybe a slightly more northern push or a better aligned Easterly... So far so good!
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I'm new to all this model runs ect...
What are the times of the runs I have gathered GFS is around 6am, 4pm and 10pm however the rest seem to be spread out?!
Also I hear of GFS operational runs... Is this a side kick run to the main GFS?
Hope I'm not annoying anyone just looking to boost my knowledge as a newbie to all this
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Simply stunning!
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2 minutes ago, AmershamMike said:
Why?! For goodness sake explain yourself man
The slightly milder Air to the west seems to be acting like a wall... it's a great chart just wish that slightly milder Air would break down to allow the cold to flood in a more westerly direction
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Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Shocking thing is that all these charts with the start of beast 2 in just 5 days! Hmm ?