Mr Bartlettazores
-
Posts
44 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Mr Bartlettazores
-
-
For balance and hopefully not too much off topic. There is a respected meteorologist in USA called Guy Walton who is staying that the GFS is not to be trusted and that he’s with the ECM on our predicted temperatures for Monday/Tuesday - so closer to 37c than 40c. So he’s effectively stating 40c won’t happen. This seems to go against the recent views that the ECM underplays temperatures by a few degrees and that the GFS has been fixed.
Whilst a separate weather event, I’m a little mindful myself of the June heatwave when temps ended up a few degrees down on initial forecasts/projections of up to 34c (32.7c in the end). So just for balance, should we also take the performance of both models into account with this recent heatwave too?
On the balance of increasing ensemble 850 hpa means, an increase in models and runs showing 40c being reached etc I’m minded to think it is still a growing possibility, but just that at this stage. If these sort of max temps are still showing by Sunday night then I think we can confidently suggest by then that the magic 40c barrier can be hit somewhere!
-
1
-
-
21 minutes ago, Johnp said:
If memory serves me right, in 2003 it was only on the night before / possibly the day itself that the record breaking temps were forecast (not sure what we were predicting on the forums!).
I think a few days before, the beeb were forecasting 34-35 and at the last minute changed to forecast possible record breaking temps.
Anyone remember this?
Hi. I do remember this. I recall that it was Wednesday 6th August from memory that was initially meant to threaten the record. Temps that day did peak at 36.4c so a bit short of the then 37.1c record from 1990. It was then thought that the chances of beating the record were over. I was living in Cardiff at the time and that Weds 6th was forecast to break its record but cloud cover which wasn’t forecast meant this didn’t materialise on the day.
On I also recall that Saturday 9th that things had changed with the forecast for the Sunday 10th and it was then forecast to possibly break the record which it did - in numerous places within the M25 and in Kent of course.
In linking to the models today, I guess this shows things can chop and change right up to the last day or so…what with many factors at play with our weather too. I certainly think things will likely peak on Tuesday potentially in the south east/east (maybe even the north/north east) before the extreme heat is shunted away. I’m basing this on the delays of the peak maximum temps moving back 3 or 4 days from what was initially shown a week or so back. I’m not so sure there will be such a progressive shunt of the heat as some models show earlier on the Tuesday but we shall see!
Could there also be a surprise fohn effect somewhere on the day too in some locations further north? It happened with Exeter last month. Could be a factor for records to be broken further north for example.
-
1
-
-
34 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:
The met office have said no overnight records were broken, but they did mention this interesting phenomenon, a "heat burst"
That’s pretty spectacular! One of the MO Senior meteorologists even ruled this out initially before confirming it happened.
Also, there are reports that Brogdale Farm hit 38.4 degrees yesterday albeit not yet officially confirmed just yet. The BBC reported live from the site yesterday and it looks very much the same as previously with a thick tree boundary. However, when questioned on Twitter, someone of the MO simply said it’s not one of their official sites now so presumably can’t take the July record. However, I’d have thought the Stevenson Screen issues would have been improved compared to 2003 so issues impacting on readings may have been improved even if marginally. It just seems very inconsistent that it can’t have official readings now yet still has the all time record from 2003. So if confirmed, the hottest temperature yesterday should really be 38.4 degrees, or the previous record should be revoked. It just doesn’t sit right with me. I’ve asked a number of questions about the Brogdale site before and no one seems to give an answer. I also think the MO needs to give a very strong justification as to why it’s no longer an official site considering it’s importance for recorded high temperatures. I’m not sure their previous reasons are strongly justified with regards to its removal. I work in an industry where everything is evidence led and justified to the hilt under very close scrutiny so really there should be further scrutiny and debate around this site considering its readings (if officially confirmed) from yesterday.
Maybe I should also wait to see what the MO officially says on this but it does raise possible consistency issues if not officially accepted.
-
7
-
-
14 hours ago, Stonethecrows said:
When the weather doesn't happen as thought year in year out it's funny how people say we've dodged a bullet just like when there's little snow in winter the old we were unlucky chestnut comes out. Yes i think 40 C would be a one off, unless you genuinely think every July from here on in will hit that temp every year? It's possible yes but by no means a given like some would have us believe. You talk about anomalies, well it could be that these plumes are just that anyway! I'm not stupid, of course there is a warming trend and obviously climate change is happening but the potential jump to regularly hit high 30/40 C in this country is different to other parts of the the world anyway, in the same way we often miss severe winter weather. For climate change to affecting the uk at the rate some are alluding to, shouldn't we be seeing these heatwaves lasting more than just 3 days? The average temp for july is like 21, 22 yeah? well the odd plume here and there isn't like to alter that dramatically. Yet
So hitting high 30's or the magic 40 somewhere today will be a very noteworthy event but it's entirely possible it will be a good number of years before a July day gets that hot again and imho anyone who thinks next year and the year after will be a carbon copy is getting rather carried away.
I never said that we would reach 40 today or every year for that matter - that’s just taking my original reply out of context. I’m just saying there is an increased frequency of significant heat records, certainly in comparison to cold weather temperature records. There is a warming trend! Yes there are significant cold spells and records at times, but are generally less frequent and extreme at the other end of the temperature scale it would appear.
I don’t think it’s fair to suggest from my original reply though that I was saying we would get this weather event every year - and again, as for last summer with the dry ground and sustained / consistent heat, a push of hot air from the continent or south in general could have resulted in rather high temps in the upper 30s there too. This was pretty much recognised and acknowledged at the time. Of course we don’t get these heatwaves every year, particularly at the peak time of year for the highest temperatures (eg 1995, 2003, 2006, 2018, 2019 (?)), but when taken altogether and the heat records going whether it be national, local, daily or monthly - I don’t know why you are even trying to suggest I was saying this would happen every year! Also, I am objective person and leave emotion or preferences out of things - for example, I predicted a top temperature the other day of 37.9 degrees but for tomorrow in the East Anglia region based on the westerly corrections of the incoming heat that the models were getting to grips with. If I was someone that was overly excited by my preferences which is heat and storms, I’d have certainly predicted higher than that...
-
Yes I remember that as I follow AurorawatchUK on Facebook. I think they were very embarrassed at that and there were a lot of annoyed people.
To get back on topic, it would be really interesting to see a study on today’s weather, temperatures and observation sites, a bit like the study for 2003 which Knocker pointed out.
-
Quick question if anyone can answer...was there cloud cover moving into the south east in the heatwave on 10th August 2003? Did it put a lid on temps going even higher that day? I recall severe thunderstorms up in the north east that afternoon and it was cooler in the west. Cardiff had a predicted record of 34 degrees on the Saturday 9th but unexpected cloud cover scuppered that (think it was 30/31 instead so below the city record from 1995 which is 33 degrees I believe). Would certainly be interesting to know although can’t remember cloud cover over the south east that day?
-
7 minutes ago, matty007 said:
Virtually every synoptic was more optimum than 2003. Why would it not of been likely?
Preety sure bookies would have taken very short odds on the maximum being beaten.It was always about 60% so not really sure it would have had that favourable odds. Probably evens if the bookies would have offered but didn’t see anything offered when I looked.
-
1
-
-
Thank you for confirming Rob K. I did indeed notice earlier on after it was on the way to claiming the hottest July day today! It’s a shame that there aren’t the Faversham (at least officially) and Gravesend stations to compare to previous heatwaves though - particularly 2003.
-
Sunshine still coming out intermittently at Heathrow for anyone’s thats interested. I suspect the peak time for max temps is passing now however.
-
I can confirm it’s just about clouded over at Heathrow now although amazing to to experience 100f temps here. Had some good strong sun for a period up to now.
-
Hi all. I had an unexpected afternoon off so decided to drive up to Heathrow and am on official heat watch! I’m in Longford more specifically just to the north of the observation station and can confirm it’s roasting!
Cloud is milky at worst and only for short periods with shadows always visible so maybe still in the game? Not seen the latest temps but plenty of clear sky around at the moment.
-
A very interesting article and surely doubts will persist if the 38.5 degrees isn’t beaten today (although I think it will be).
12 hours ago, Mike Poole said:Thank you for sharing that, Malcolm, it is an interesting read. I also note that the Gravesend and Faversham stations are no more, and (my opinion) Kent is not the likely high point tomorrow, I think Cambridge or close by. I think Cambridge or somewhere close by was the previous record holder prior to 2003? Anyway, only 24 hours to go now!
The previous record was Cheltenham at 37.1 degrees on 3rd August 1990. I also recall Cambridge being an official site a few years back but also not sure this is now? Too much tinkering for me with the weather stations over recent years and in my view, with the climate change debate raging on, these sites must be given stronger protections (ie via national planning policies) and more closely regulated (eg no large trees or bushes within the vicinity that could impact the temperature). Also quite amazing that last year the Scottish record was almost broken because of an adjacent ice cream van running its engines!
-
2
-
-
42 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
Taking a conversation from the MOD thread : if we miss the record by a fraction, would that really mean it was cooler than 2003? Gravesend would have been in with a great shout of the top spot tomorrow, but the station no longer exists.
I don’t know much about the specifics, but I have just read that this site was closed due to landscaping changes in relation to the development of a new theme park. I personally think this station should have have been retained and find it ironic that Paramount Park was granted via Nationally Significant Infrastructure Project status in 2014, yet a nationally significant weather station in terms of its hottest day records (including briefly the UK record) in particular has had to close to make way for it! Whilst a fan of theme parks, I think some or all of the station could have probably have been designed into the development and would certainly argue for continuity with data collection and that the retention of this station would have been of greater national significance (but without scuppering plans for the theme park). It annoys me when things like this are either not fully thought through...as does the lack of continuity in data collection. Would have been good to compare this to 2003, although Brogdale Farm in Faversham still exists apparently?
-
2
-
-
41 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:
Soooo everyone spouting thst global warming is the reason why tomorrow might hit 40. Excellent, that means every summer from now on will be a scorcher. Well you can't just turn GW off like a tap so happy days for heat lovers. Back in the real world it's entirely possible tomorrow will just be a one off. Don't forget after the beast from the east in 2018 everyone said same again next year and look at this years snow offering - pants. All just random weather
It’s the ‘one offf’ comment which gets my interest. 34 degrees in Gravesend in mid September 2017; 36.7 degrees in July 2015 from a one day plume event; much more in the way of hitting 34 or 35 degrees as the top temperature over the last five years here in the UK. Oh and we may have dodged a bullet last summer since there was no southerly flow to allow 38 degree temperatures at the time. It could easily have happened. So don’t really think it can be called a one off. Ok, like getting snow at Christmas time, we have hit the jackpot (heat lovers that is) for this heatwave at the hottest part of the year.
Those that argue there is no warming trend or an increased frequency in record warm temperatures may also argue about the very cold spells in Brazil and Australia etc over recent months; the polar vortex hitting the US last winter. However, these are surely anomalies in a warming world. A bit like our 1976 summer being an anomaly in a cooler world back then.
-
1
-
-
23 minutes ago, Rob K said:
Yes Brogdale (Faversham) is an official site but it isn't automated so doesn't tend to show up on the daily record list. It gets added in at the month's end, when all the data is sent in, I believe.
Thanks Rob K yes I recall that the 38.5 degrees was officially confirmed some weeks later with a monthly data collection taking place. Are some weather stations still subject to the collection of data on a weekly or even monthly basis then? If so, that could mean we won’t know of the official top temperature of these until sometime after Thursday / Friday...
I also saw that the top temperature from the June heatwave in central / southern France was revised upward by 0.1 degrees a week or so ago so guess it’s possible?
-
19 minutes ago, kold weather said:
I think the 6th did break the record but was broken more convincingly on the 10th. The 10th was indeed a pretty short notice affair as we pulled back in severe heat from France briefly.
Pretty sure it was just the 10th in the end with a second push of heat! I recall Cardiff was forecast 34 degrees for Saturday 9th August (living there at the time) which would have been a record but didn’t materialise because of cloud cover...something which may of course have localised influences this week! Sorry for going off topic mods no more deviating now....
-
1
-
-
22 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:
I’m not in the know but if it holds the record it’s got to be official? Was my old stomping ground in north Kent... was at university in Canterbury in 2003 on the day it got to 38c at brogdale... lived in a ground floor student let.. all doors and windows open phew
I’ve read about some debate about the Brogdale site and the variables which contributed to the 38.5 record such as the sandy soils (and is it the same as the Faversham weather station or separate since Brogdale is not referred to when Faversham has often since had a hottest day record?). Regardless, it’s going to be scorchio!
-
1
-
-
3 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:
39.5c Brogdale Faversham
Is it still an official site? Never saw any other observations from it other than that 10 August 2003 record!
-
With the westward shift in the core of the heat and delaying of the low pressure to the west, I predict that Friday will be the hottest somewhere in East Anglia. I’m going for 37.9 degrees....something similar happened I think in September 2017 when the heat stayed a little longer in eastern areas than anticipated (or the south east at least) resulting in a 34 degrees in Gravesend (I think from memory but do know it was the highest temperature for so late in the year).
On a separate point, I recall that the all time U.K. record was meant to go initially on the Wednesday 6th August but was eventually broken on Sunday 10th August (not predicted in the latter case until a day or so beforehand). So basically, I’m expecting there will be some surprises with this heatwave over the course of this week.
-
1
-
-
36.9 Gosport, Hants on Friday.
-
Re the 20% chance of the record on Friday. It might be unrelated in terms of the here and now, but I do recall Sunday 10th August 2003 being preceded by a midweek chance of the record being broken (possibly the Wednesday 6th). It wasn’t to be on that first stab and that Sunday 10th wasn’t seen to be a chance for breaking the record even in the preceding 4 or 5 days. So what I’m saying is that whilst it will probably not be broken at the end of the week, the building blocks are there for another attempt when the heat reloads after this weekend. A lot of the talk has been about 3rd to 6th August more generally but a lot can evolve in terms of detail over a shorter timeframe as back in 2003. Also depends on cloud cover (obviously!) - I recall when living in Cardiff that a record 34 degrees was forecast on that Saturday 9th but unexpected cloudy skies scuppered any chance that day (record from memory is 33 degrees).
Also a question if anyone can answer...why is it that Brogdale has not been the hottest place UK wide since that infamous 2003 heatwave? Was it a temporary station set up specifically for the record? It’s just interesting that there appear to be no records of this station such as daily extremes since...
-
View looking towards the IOW from Fareham at the moment. A lot of cloud but trying to brighten up. Also some small gaps appearing to the north east of me.
-
I don’t often post on here but Ice Man 85, I have to seriously challenge your views on people’s love for ‘extreme weather’. I haven’t read of anyone excited that floods, extreme high or low temperatures could result in death or even life consequences. No one wants anything like that! As for anything ‘extreme’ with our weather more recently, the temperatures cumulatively are higher and there have been a few storms with big rainfall totals, but hardly the extremes other warmer countries can have in such conditions.
We are actually lucky to live in a country that our extremes are less so really compared to many others! Where are the hurricanes and extreme droughts that other countries suffer? Just look at the lightning storms that have killed dozens in India very recently!
If anything, people such as the many homeless can get killed from a few cold nights below zero which is hardly extreme as one example! A first warm spell of the year as another can and does often result in tragic consequences when people take a plunge in cold waters!
I’d also challenge your views in that it’s the same fanatics of more extreme weather that are the first in warning and raising awareness of any danger to those less informed and more vulnerable. As noted, I very rarely post but your views although with a good underlying sentiment, in my personal view (and others it seems), are without doubt misplaced at best.
-
7
-
-
Currently in Fareham and without doubt it’s an ice day for the moment here at least but see clearer skies to the north which should start to thaw out the remaining ice and snow.
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Interesting replies all (who have to my question). The article looks as if it was published 4 or so hours ago. I did respond and mentioned that more models are now showing this possibility and that GFS is not out on its own… and in fact was the model which picked up with this upcoming severe hot spell way back at the end of June