[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

23 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yep and here's the control

That looks much better, and more realistic given the setup in my opinion.

 

Also, when did we start getting an 18z ECM ??

[Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ec 46.  

What does it show ?

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

GFS looking better but early doors still…

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Have had short light to moderate showers in Stirling all day, not really accumulating too much though. Any insight from locals on what to expect in coming hours/days? This is my first season here. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into the new year]

Just now, kold weather said:

By the way, just to note that if we see an extreme burst of cold coming through the Greenland/Iceland area, it runs a very high risk of developing an area of LP in a place that may very rapidly help us to switch back into a SW pattern, especially should the upper high migrate westwards.

For example:

You can very easily end up on the wrong side of that sort of pattern and default back into an Atlantic set-up even if the AO remains negative.

Just a word of cuation for those that see deep cold coming out of that area and think we are in the money, its REALLY rare for that cold to make it down to our neck of the woods, I've seen it literally a handful of times looking back at the last 100 years of charts on the archives. 

This is largely more to do with the development of high pressure over Iberia though, no? Too far out to worry about now anyway.

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards]

Snowing and settling in Stirling !

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

UKMO/GEM/GFS are excellent,  Arpege not quite as good but much better than it's 12z,  ICON is not good. 

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

ng the 00z op with the upper ridge close to the uk. The op and control jumping clusters continues to show the uncertainty. Not surprised to see the near term upgrade from the 00z run but day 6 onwards could yet  disappoint. Hopefully the poorer cluster drops off later in percentage terms and goes completely in the morning.

note the high height cluster against the mean below at day 7

  

What % did this cluster make up on this mornings run?

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Possibly one of the most beautiful Greenland highs you'll see modelled

Textbook.

These runs are simply sublime,  you would struggle to draw a more perfect Greeny High. 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

ECM is turning into an epic,  takes a bit longer but is a more locked in cold spell.  This time tomorrow we should be staring down the barrel of the best easterly in decades... 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

Another tense set of runs coming up,  Arpege and ICON 06z's heading the right way (better ridging/Atlantic profile). 

Remember that regardless of whether or not the 12z's show what we all want (or don't) that this is unlikely to be set in stone this evening. S4lancia's post above is worth taking stock of- run to run variation happens every time. 

I have to say it's been some of the best model watching over the last few weeks,  watching the SSW being forecast and then coming to fruition with a devastating affect on the tropospheric vortex coming - pure synoptic heaven.  Hopefully this beast lands...  It's long overdue. 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

1 hour ago, Raythan said:

Hope the snow gets in at day 6/7 @Catacol Iv never seen a Calcutta cup played with an orange ball ! Didn’t follow this crazy hobby in 2010 , but I quite imagine this was what it was like ! 

Actually the build up to December 2010 had a similar feeling to this,  the feeling that the charts were completely unnatural for these isles and also that nagging feeling that they couldn't really happen. There were several days in a row like the day just past,  with fantastic charts as the models honed in on the superbly wintery scenario that we all know unfolded. 

December 2012 still lingers in the mind too- the easterly that never was. This time looks very different though, almost all the teleconnections are playing ball and we have a record breaking SSW thrown in for good measure.  

Downgrades are likely to some extent as we are still talking well into FI before the real cold arrives and so the models will play around with the various outcomes but on the other hand if this is actually going to happen,  expect the unexpected I.e more ridiculous charts over the next few days.  

 

I'm expecting this 18z GFS run to not stand out so much in 48hours time...