Tog
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Posts posted by Tog
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13 minutes ago, Snowboy111 said:
I’ll let you know how we get on ! I got work till 11pm so the drive home could be fun !
I think it’s our turn. You hogged it all last time.
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4 minutes ago, Snowboy111 said:
Was an odd event for us really. Northern half of the island which is sea level had about 3-6 cm. The southern half which reaches 102m asl had 25/30cm and drifts in some places 18ft high! only talking 4 miles difference too.
Oh yes there was remember it well and being further South than you we had those massive drifts everywhere. But we got nothing in 2018 unlike Alderney. A few miles = huge difference.
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1 hour ago, Snowboy111 said:
No thanks !! 100 more south thank you !!
Indeed, and Jersey missed out in 2018.
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36 minutes ago, lawrenk said:
To those more knowledgeable than I, is this situation comparable to March 13, when we spent what felt like a week worrying where the rain/snow divide would be, only for the incoming low to be corrected so far south that it was Jersey and Guernsey that ended up getting buried?
Not knowledgeable, but I think it was March 13 we had masses in Jersey but none in Mar 2018. I can say just a few miles between Jersey, Guernsey and Alderney makes a huge difference with sometimes one island getting nothing and the others buried.
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Many thanks . Never thought FI meant that, I expected it to be some technical term.
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1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:
Don't expect anything to lift the hopes of an easterly from the 12z ecm tonight...the differences between the 0z and 12z have been like chalk and cheese towards FI in the last day or so.
I’m new to all this. What exactly is FI? I see it mentioned in posts everywhere, I can manage most terms or work them out and understand them, on a basic level but that one is a mystery!
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3 minutes ago, swfc said:
Yep be in channel Islands Thurs!!!
Well it would make a change if we got to even see something! 6c tomorrow wintry showers, lots of wind very good at that here! 8c on Thursday, rain. If only people knew the excitement it causes you’d let us have a bit.
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17 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
I saw someone post yesterday that they felt sorry for the Channel Islands missing out, especially Jersey........ Clearly they weren't alive in March 2013!!! Nothing personal, but I've gone off the Channel Islands since then, not sure I can undo that, sorry not sorry
Yes March 2013 was a good one! Mega! But we missed the one two weeks ago just a small amount compared to Alderney, though they rarely do get snow, so it was great they had some for a change,and even Guernsey was better. Last night it did snow a small covering, nothing on the roads stuck though, but it’s melted now and we have the odd flake on the wind. It was frustrating to watch the radar and see it all but be in a gap and miss out on the substantial majority of it. Similar to two weeks ago too.
Will it be a White Rabbit to come? Perhaps third time lucky? We shall see!
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42 minutes ago, matt111 said:
Almost as painful the channel streamer that lasted 3 days during the last beast.
Yes it was, and today just watching it either side until the gaps filled in, even now you can count the flakes falling in a minute on one hand.....
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If it’s of any help the wind has gone more southerly in the CI at the moment we have no snow at all here, Alderney a little, all the showers are just running even more east of CI than they were, then N and W. Very similar situation to the beast just much warmer this time.
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Meanwhile in the southern channel isle, it’s rain, just sat in the centre of the LP watching it rotate around spinning snow out to everyone else on the radar.....Maybe tomorrow very similar to last time. All very disappointing though.
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11 minutes ago, Dunlop Dave said:
Looks like a correction north so a disaster for us in the Channel Islands. Get the impression the low in north France is going to push up and will now move the main snow along the south England coast.
Seems a lot like beast 1, Alderney had the best snow, just that few miles North made a big difference.
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22 minutes ago, weirpig said:
MMM very westerly Based then. must admit had to check were exactly the Ise of Wight was. Can you give us a heads up when 7 oclock run comes out?.
Well Alderney seems to be having a wonderful snowy event, been non stop there by all accounts, even have THE snow plough out on their airport, so there is snow south of the U.K. even the Isle of Wight.
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Snow in Northern Channel Island 8cm, no snow in the South but very cold, shows how a few miles makes a big difference, I can even see them from my home. Warms up Friday, been consistent with that for days now, southerly winds Sat, and Sunday forecast 9c. Still have Thursday as the ‘snow event ‘ for all.
Weather radar, satellite images all on this site, current chart on Aviation tab. Slower than usual to load, guess the local population is on snow watch and further South grumbling that the others have all the fun!
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13 minutes ago, kumquat said:
Our guy in Jersey (or was it Guernsey?) might get some fun and games, at least.
Damn cold! Very windy. Not much snow forecast really tomorrow, Thursday is the day for it apparently. All we have now is the odd snowflake in southern isle, more in the Northern ones, but light fro what I’ve heard. Friday and Saturday look tropical with rain.....seems the Channel Light vessel, or the wave buoy is where the snow is!
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6 minutes ago, johnwirral said:
The GFS keeps up it's trend for Friday "correcting" the low and the snow northwards, while the ICON keeps it further south.
The first is good for me (and much of the country) and the second is not, don't know much about the ICON and so far the season all the GFS snow events have been exaggerated for my location (nothing stuck).
So which model is the best for accuracy, does anyone know, do we need to get Harry Hill to decide?
Here the forecast is 7c and easterly on Friday, Rain. Saturday Southerly 9c rain. So much warmer than it has bee or will be for a few days. . Northern CI’s Snow forecast 10cm today into Tuesday, Southern CI, maybe the odd shower, so a few miles makes a difference. All CI’s have Thursday as the big snowy event. Guess our forecasters are with GFS! We shall see!
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From what I can see it’s looks very warm Friday in the CI’s forecasts here backing the idea that it warms, had been showing a forecast of sleet and 4c early this morning now showing rain and a max of 9c and a SW wind.
But with east F7 and snow on the Thursday max of 4c which had been sleet same time 24 hours before. Wednesday a cold SE wind dry max 1c , that has been consistent for days. Tuesday NE snow showers 2c.
Could all be different tomorrow, I shall just enjoy any snow that happens to appear!
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3 minutes ago, Nick F said:
Well, the GFS operationals continue to be determined to end the deep cold across the south later in the week / next weekend, however, the ECM continues the deep cold flow across all the UK.
GEFS postage stamps show a range of positions of the low next Friday and Saturday, the GEFS MSLP has the low just or over the far south of UK:
Still way off getting confidence in where the low will track. ECM the best solution for those in the south, GFS better for those in the north in terms of snowfall generated by this low.
Nearer in time, not often one sees an upside down low (kink in isobars) and frontal configuration, as shown just east of Scotland / NE England on the T+72 fax for 00z Tuesday
Prefer the ECM ! Our local forecast is snow Tues, sun Wed, and sleet ( nearly did a Violet Elizabeth when I saw that it had been looking good last night) on Thursday for CI seems they follow GFS.
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21 minutes ago, swebby said:
Only just glanced at the fax charts, not sure i've ever seen one with a convergence line set up over the channel, pembrokshire dangler yes but over the channel, no. Would make for some interesting weather in the channel isles....
We always have ‘interesting’ weather, gales and fog. Though rarely snow, 2013 was mega though, got skis out for that occasion!
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10 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:
Be wary about saying 'definitely' like I mentioned in the end of the past thread the Scandi low over Finland at T72 needs to be kept a close eye on given cluster 2 of the ECM ensembles.
It could well just end up being cold and dry for many with those in the north wondering what the fuss is about whilst France and the Channel Islands get all the deep cold uppers
If its gone by today's 12z ECM then I'm ready to start ramping. Lets be cautious until then.The excitement that would cause if it does go down to CI’s is beyond words. We rarely get any snow, just mention snow the place grinds to a halt. Every time someone’s groans and says South I go Yes, Yes please. Been watching and learning for the last ten days, quite an education. Just getting to grips with this model stuff so excuse my lack of knowledge.
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Ha, now this is what we call South, and where the snow is, a rare event. Question is when ppl discuss models do they mean this far South?