Joe Snow

January 15

Colder than forecast already here at -3c snow now showing on the apps from around 4am.

We are seeing last minute upgrades on the 18z hi res models for potentially a more substantial Cheshire Gap event with the snow showers overnight maybe reaching as far as the N Midlands , radar is looking interesting & there are snow reports right on the N Wales Coast

Let’s see what we wake up to...

January 15

A very cold day GFS 12z gives even S Cheshire a covering overnight. We’ll see what happens but Thurs might be better IMBY

January 15

Slight dusting overnight down to -1c

January 14

9 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Icon 18z not a bad run , shower activity Thursday too giving another covering.

Plus a little feature moving through Wednesday

Would be great if a few short notice features crop up and or increase in potency they are NW England's biggest snow makers - Cumbria was forecast a few cm max at the start of the Dec but some areas saw close to a ft. I'm managing expectations by expecting nothing so will be happy with anything white that falls from the sky this week

January 14

7 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Icon 18z Tuesday morning.

Looks interesting - hoping for a covering even this far South but it'll be a nowcast scenario.

January 14

I don't think even the pros have a clue about snowfall potential this week it'll be very broad brush and a nowcast with flash warnings if appropriate. Equally I wouldn't be surprised if we stayed cold & dry we shall have to see.

January 14

Wed/ Thursdays snow warnings are like others have mentioned really baffling me - Met seem to be highlighting the risk of 2-10cm of snow quite widely Tues-Thurs very much an expect the unexpected kind of week. Personally don't think low levels will see much more than a 2-3cm covering at best higher ground & the north of the region likely to do better maybe. Would love to see some surprises though. Very cold nights can't be underestimated either -3/-4/-5c quite widely and lower than that potentially with any snow cover before a signalled transition to something less cold over next weekend.

January 14

Been away for a few days what have I missed Warnings now out for next week - Tues probably holding most potential as it stands for low level falling snow at least. Even a dusting would be nice as it'll stick around till the weekend. We'll see what happens but a damp squib of what we could have had.

January 12

A colder feeling day than forecast today - forecast 6c barely scraping 4c so cloudy & raw out there.

Hopefully the Cheshire Gap is our friend next week even the MOD thread are talking about us

January 12

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

The convective NW flow is becoming less likely now as most output has a trough sliding down from the NW with a low moving up from the South. In the past these instances have struggled to produce much in NW England, as we are usually in an area of higher pressure between the two systems.

The trough would ofcourse be more problematic than the NW flow with issues from placement and core warming raising their hands. But also a nice risk reward scenario.

So we're better off without the trough in my opinion. In this case the NW flow looks great for snow to almost all elevations with significant streamer activity.

Probably bouts of 3-7cm in the region with a localized 10cm in the NW flow.

Thanks might need my winter boots Tues/ Wed then Similar amounts to 2nd Dec 2023 here.

January 12

A cold- very cold week ahead MO automated going for -5/-6c min next Wednesday so would rival early Dec’s cold snap , risk of snow Tues too. If we can a get a week out of this spell and a covering of snow I would be happy. Not excited yet but optimistic.

What do you reckon for Cheshire Gap/ trough snow chances in the NW next week @Kasim Awan UKMO looks interesting this AM

January 11

1 minute ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Cheshire gap activity here I’d have thought @Joe Snow

Hopefully we catch something - would be happy with a covering if it can stick around for a few days under cold air - like early Dec but it sticking around would be great

January 11

I don’t understand why those in the SE in particular moan so much - they are the closest at times in the UK you can get to a continental climate - warm sometimes hot fairly dry summers, largely mild & pleasant spring & autumn shoulder seasons, a decent thunderstorm nearly every year with every snowfall event they have although perhaps more infrequent than north of Birmingham nearly always heavy & disruptive away from the immediate coast. It’s the far SW - coastal South Devon & Cornwall etc... that I feel sorry for in winter often relying for the most extreme Synoptics such as 2018’s Storm Emma to come together to deliver snowfall but you get what you expect there though - and you can’t beat a good Cornish summer.

Here’s to some NW snowy surprises next week

January 11

4 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Yeah deffo mate, these little features can dump a decent amount in a short space of time, causing chaos.

There was one I vividly remember when I was about 10/12, came in overnight and wasn't very well forecast. It left about 4 inches, plus it happened on a Friday night,so the street was full of kids on the Sat, great memories.

5th Jan 2010 was meant to be ‘a few wintry showers moving in overnight Monday into Tuesday’ probably the most underestimated snow event in NW England’s history as even MCR city centre saw nearly 6 inches of snow

Not to say it will this time but when these features crop up they locally can deliver big time

January 11

3 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

It's ok, we get the next one lol.

Think these kind of features will be the ones to watch vs any low to the south next week for snow making weather in the NW. Yeah we could stay dry but the heaviest snowfall in the NW always happens at short notice & often is underestimated - you only have to look at what happened in parts of Cumbria back in early December

January 11

12 minutes ago, tricol said:

I'm willing to bet it all turns out to be a damp squid, and we end up with some drizzle and cloud.

Been a very dull day here, but thankfully that breeze is gone and it's nice and calm.

I prefer the salt & pepper squid from the Chinese it could well be though - tbh I’m not excited by next week at all, an exhausting near 3-4 week chase for this cold spell since mid Dec has taken it out of me and we don’t seem to be any clearer as to what may evolve and where we stand late month going into Feb although most now favour a less cold outcome late month before returning to more blocked conditions into February.

We’ll see what happens next week could be good, could be all a bit meh.

January 11

I think we’ll be looking for and hopefully benefiting from potential features moving from the N/ NW for snow in the NW early-mid next week. GFS 12z just out edges the ‘will it won’t it’ low into S England mid week.

January 11

5 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Well the UKMO and ECM are very good this morning

or are we calling it a bust?

I would rather side with the UKMO & ECM tbh - I know ECM has had its wobbles but GFS has been poor this past week after perhaps initially sniffing out the initial wintry potential. Model fatigue is definitely setting in for some though with the chase for cold stretching back pre Xmas - it’s been exhausting.

A largely cold week next week but snow far from certain just yet but you would hope we could catch something.

January 11

48 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

People were on about red warnings yesterday. The only red thing we’re likely to see is the red mist of another winter weather fail.

It hasn’t helped that the MO & pros themselves have hyped up the potential of this forecast cold spell - talking of disruptive snowfall next week online, video & medium range forecasts & on social media they must see something more substantial.

Even if we do go more blocked into Feb it will be hugely disappointing if all we see is a few coldish days and a frost only for the rain & milder temps to quickly return as per 00z GFS. Would be just our luck though

January 10

7 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Pronounced rain shadow 18z GFS…Gtr Manchester right down into Cheshire.

Seen it before with that scenario…few hrs of drizzly snow that doesn’t stick.

Yeah have seen a few events like that think there was a similar event in Mar 2013 that buried NE Wales & the Midlands but just grazed the region with some flurries.

Then again 18th Jan 2013 saw some decent frontal snowfall south of MCR - not the dumping the Midlands saw but a covering none the less. We aren’t in the shadow as much this far SE. It’ll probably hit France anyway

January 10

6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Depends if we get the front north enough, if we're on the northern flank the easterly winds will produce a moderate leeward effect west of the Pennines with reduced snowfall rates as a result. Get it far enough North or get a front with lighter winds and the leeward effect will be minimal.

Any short scale troughs would bring lower levels a risk as there would be no leeward effect in these instances.

Think we’ll see some snow probably from short notice features - south of the region at risk of any frontal activity if the low pushes far enough north. Cheshire/ Merseyside, Wirral & NE Wales into Staffs & the Midlands most at risk of this as per 18th Jan 2013. Way too early to accurately say though.

January 10

Would be interesting to get your thoughts @Kasim Awan on the potential low next week from a NW England viewpoint - a wasted interest for us here in the NW or a significant snow maker?

Are we better looking for short notice disturbances instead?

January 10

24 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

This should make you happy

25cm for south cheshire

not a chance on earth that will verify

Not going to happen is it but that would be a modern record for S Cheshire at least 12 -14cm on 17th -18th Dec 2010 is the deepest snow I’ve recorded here followed by 9cm on 5th Jan 2010, 8cm Jan 2021 post Storm Christoph & 7cm 18th Jan 2013 (probably the most comparable as it was a frontal event)

Way too early to be predicting snowfall for next week accurately but think the south of the region *may* get in on any frontal feature though (Midlands getting the direct hit) with other short notice disturbances in the flow providing potential further snowfall opportunities.

January 10

5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

ECM is eye popping. Potential of a famous snow event of olden times, somewhere. Only a potential, but some of pieces are there, it needs other pieces to fall in place.

Midlands look to be a very good place to be for a high impact snow event next week. We in NW England look good too for snow more generally but we might be on the edge as it is on systems to the south pushing this far north. Hoping some short notice features pop up with some surprises too

January 9

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

HOT OFF THE PRESS JOE, THIS IS FOR NEXT WEEK!!!

Make of that what you will.

For Heavy cold rain knowing our luck!

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