Supacell
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Posts posted by Supacell
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Mark Parsons I may agree with you by tomorrow morning
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Currently near to Milton Keynes but an accident on the M1 is likely to slow my journey a bit. I am now thinking if I can make it to Kent in time then that's where I'll head.
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Looks like I'll be out chasing tonight. I'm not quite sure exactly where to place myself yet but certainly I will be heading south later this afternoon/early evening time.
At the moment I'm torn between heading down to the Kent coastline, a bit further west on the East or West Sussex coastline or not travelling as far and stopping somewhere to the east of London. I did the stopping near London on the 18th May 2022 though and when the storms came in there was nowhere to view them from and I ended up with this and busy and complicated roads screwing me over (even at late evening). I'm therefore nervous about that option.
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Yes. Although where any storms are is open to a lot of doubt at the moment. Most models are placing them across the Midlands.
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viking_smb If it stays UK side of the water then i'll probably drive down south for an overnight stay.
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MUCAPE isn't bad for Wednesday night into early hours of Thursday. Surface based CAPE is rather limited but these would be elevated storms so SBCAPE wouldn't matter.
Expect the area of risk to shift around run to run. Hopefully it doesn't move so far east it stays over the continent.
Deep layer shear looks in abundance too
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Locking this now. New thread here:
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Good morning and Happy Easter to all.
If we can say that the UK has a storm season then it likely runs from April 1st to September 30th, but the UK weather does not stick to any rules. This last week has seen thunderstorms with lightning displays, large hailstones and gusty winds along with some amazing mammatus displays. Thank you to all that shared your pictures. Let's hope this coming season offers up some of what we want to all of us.
So here we go, it's April 1st but I am not going to offer up any April fools jokes
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Today actually offers its own risk of some thundery weather, albeit a small one. Numerous heavy showers are likely to break out today across the southern half of the UK. These should develop readily once the sun gets out across Central and Southern England before expanding northwards through the Midlands and possibly as far north as Manchester. Amongst these could be the odd thundery one but will unlikely be organised with very little wind shear on offer.
Anyway, keep on chatting and remember to stay on topic and treat each other and the forum with respect. Heres to a good season of 2024.
Old thread here:
Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards
Chance of storms diminish tomorrow as the air turns much colder with a 50mph northeast wind bringing heavy snow from the east and up to 20-30cm expected across most of the UK.
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Daniel_c150311 The GFS charts i looked at showed some CAPE briefly around and to the south of the M4. That coincided with a zone of wind convergence. This was likely what caused them.
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Going to be looking this thread shortly and opening up a new one for April.
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Thankfully decided not to bother chasing today. Some pretty looking cloudscapes but not enough storm activity to warrant it for me. A nice early start to the season though for some.
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The storm risk may expand a bit further north tomorrow and so I'm contemplating getting out for my first chase of the year. If I see a storm it'll be the first time I've seen and chased a storm in March throughout my 20 years of storm chasing. Although the speed of them may suggest "chasing" would be impossible. It'll be a case of getting in the right place at the right time.
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It's March so not expecting MCS's and spectacular electrical displays but some prospects for thunderstorms/thundery showers over the next few days. Tomorrow looks to be western areas mainly. From Thursday onwards the risk probably more widespread.
I know we really don't need any more rain but still nice to see thundery weather in the forecast.
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marksp Same in Belper. You can have sleet and wet snow not settling in the centre of town but then a short drive (or even walk) away can have deep snow. I think that may be the scenario tomorrow.
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I may be in with a chance of some snow on Thursday looking at the many models and forecasts. All of them show snow over Derbyshire for a time on Thursday. As others have said, it's a pity it won't last though.
The Peak District and places such as Buxton look in for a dumping.
Forecast for Belper. Will probably show rain in a few hours though.
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Please can we keep the posts respectable to one another. Personal remarks and attacks are not acceptable on this forum.
This is a weather forum, we're all here for our interest in weather. This is not the local pub on a Saturday night.
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A tree blowing through someone's window at night is much less likely than being hit by debris whilst walking outside or driving to work. So the risk of impacts is higher in the day when more people are out and about than at night when most are inside their houses.
However, there is still a risk of impacts, hence the widespread wind warnings across the UK.
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A rough night ahead for many in what has been a rough season. To have 70mph wind gusts forecast for here is a rarity and for such a long period of time is even more rare. 90mph + winds are a rarity anywhere in the UK aside from on top of a mountain.
Storm Pia was around 60mph I think in these parts and that felled numerous trees, knocked roof tiles off houses, including in the centre of town, and caused a lot of disruption across the county. To think this could be 10mph more! Granted there are other things to take into account, for example the ground was sodden.
I read someone's post (I think on here) that pointed out that wind speed related to the likelihood of damage is logarithmic. The increase of force on a structure caused by a wind of 70mph as opposed to 60mph is greater than the increase of force caused by 60mph as opposed to 50mph and so on. I am not clever enough to work out exactly by how much but there is a calculation out there.
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Just an icing sugar dusting here in the end. Looks like the band has shifted north now so not expecting much more here, at least not today.
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It's reached Belper. Opened the curtains to a moderate fall of snow and it's not struggling to settle on the frozen ground (-1⁰c outside). Not expecting much around here but even this is more than I expected
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I may have to take a short walk on Wednesday/Thursday this week.
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May aswell take this opportunity to plug my YouTube channel dedicated to storm chasing. A lot of videos on here taken from my past 9 years of storm chasing. I will have been chasing for 20 years this year with my first video being taken in August 2004. A time where I had no internet on the move and relied on interference on an AM radio to detect lightning
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https://youtube.com/@supacellstormchasing
I'm looking forward to April onwards. Hopefully will be getting lots more footage for my channel.
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Netweather storm forecast from Nick Finnis showing a similar thing.
Severe Convective Weather & Storms Forecast - Netweather.tv
WWW.NETWEATHER.TV-
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A sleet/rain mix for the last few hours and snow is slowly thawing. Can hear the dreaded drip drip sound. This is in the centre of town though, not sure what it's like in the higher parts of Belper.
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Storms and Convective discussion - May 2024
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Made it to Kent, just outside Maidstone. Do i head south to Hastings or southeast to Folkestone... decisions decisions