Supacell
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Posts posted by Supacell
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Netweather storm forecast from Nick Finnis showing a similar thing.
Severe Convective Weather & Storms Forecast - Netweather.tv
WWW.NETWEATHER.TV-
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A sleet/rain mix for the last few hours and snow is slowly thawing. Can hear the dreaded drip drip sound. This is in the centre of town though, not sure what it's like in the higher parts of Belper.
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Bit of a dumping overnight. About 7-10cm and all the minor roads around the town are bad. Saw a number of stranded cars.
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Locking this thread now. Please continue discussions for November convective weather in here:
https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99492-storms-and-convective-discussion-november-2023/
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Where November is not traditionally a month associated with storms for inland areas of the UK, it can still be quite thundery around the coastlines. Much like has been the case for the second half of October, the first week of November shows up risks for scattered thunderstorms around southern and western coasts particularly. Infact, there is scope for some quite severe storms in the next 48 hours courtesy of Storm Ciarán (and before).
Look back on October here.
Keep on posting all thunderstorm and convective related musings for the final Autumn month in here.
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Been out and about checking out the flooding situation, both in the car and on foot. Apparently the river level in Derby City centre reached record high levels with 3 severe flood warnings issued.
I personally have not seen the river so high in Derby, and I was there for the 2000 and 2007 floods. Belper was affected also but luckily didn't affect the town centre.
Some pictures from around here
The recreation ground in Belper
The A6 just south of Belper
The River Derwent and the village of Duffield as seen from above on a small hill
The river in Derby City centre. There are about 4 or 5 steps down to the river behind the posts
People watching the river in Derby
I have some video to edit also.
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27 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:
I've seen reference to a thunderstorm in London lasting 12 hours starting 4pm tomorrow. Is this a possibility or is it someone trying to earn a few pennies?
Yes, someone trying to earn a few pennies. Sounds like a Daily Express style headline. Taking what is a risk of storms for over a 12 hour period and turning it into a 12 hour thunderstorm. A little bit like the risk of snow over Cairngorm translating to a headline of UK wide blizzards
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56 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
The longest storm I've ever been in happened in October, was down to coastal orographic lift, lasted from about 2am in the morning till 12pm the next day.
The loudest thunder and most damaging cloud to ground definitely positive lightning strike happened in march. Storm season can be any time of the year.
Absolutely. I witnessed a squall line pass over Derby in January 2014. It went on to produce a tornado near to Retford. It's just that storms aren't as commonplace in the cooler months.
However, in simple terms storms are caused by cooler air above warm air. This can happen at anytime and arguably could lead to an increase in coastal storm activity in the Autumn, especially with a warmer SST.
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Locking this thread now. New thread here.
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Although generally the UK is more likely to see storms between April and September it is definitely not unheard of to see storms outside of these months. Infact, over previous years I have noticed October storms become more common and just last year we saw some big storm events in the month of October.
With some models showing a very late season burst of heat next weekend it is certainly possible there could be more storms. Indeed, in the more reliable time frame we have a risk of storms.
Tomorrow it looks as though a waving front through central parts will reinvigorate as warmer and more humid air is pulled northwards. This could allow thunderstorms to develop just to the south of the waving front, more especially later in the afternoon and then through the evening and night. I'm still not seeing total agreement as to whether anything will happen but its worth keeping an eye on.
To see back on September, which was an active month for some, the old thread is over here:
Keep chatting and discussing as we head through mid Autumn. Will there be any more storms?
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9 minutes ago, minus10 said:
Well gotta hand it to you @Supacell you have some stamina..i would have been a nervous wreck driving in that wondering where the next flooded patch will be...presume you have waterproofs (and camera too
)...great video...watching it i felt as if i was there and needed to dry out too..you must have been tired when you got back home though...hope you manage to get some good shut eye...
I do have waterproofs but didn't have time to put them on as the storm was already coming in fast when I pulled up. So I got thoroughly drenched
. It's part and parcel of the job though.
I was very tired when I got home. I was diverted a couple of times trying to chase the storms that popped up around Oxfordshire. Never caught them, but resulted in me getting home at 5:30am
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Here is my video from the storms on Sunday night
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51 minutes ago, Stormhog said:
When the straight line wind hits...time to take cover. Came in very strong at Seaford last night and put an end to any photography, we just made it to the car before the lashing rain hit. My friend couldn't drive for the first few minutes and cars were pulling over.
I imagine it was very similar conditions there as in Worthing. Standing under a shelter was no use in horizontal rain.
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@sunnijim Thank you for the recommendation. One of the problems with travelling outside my normal radius is having no idea where the best viewpoints are. Thats why I tend to like the coast, as you can't fail to get at least a 180 view from there
@Tamsin Indeed it ended up being much more widespread and spreading much further north than I anticipated. I think only the UKV model broke out widespread convection like what happened, but on an earlier run that was then replaced with a Kent clipper
. The storm I saw is very likely the same storm that passed over you. It was fantastic for number of flashes and constant thunder.
@Flash bang flash bang etc Your account sounds similar to mine, with the exception of being blasted by rain and wind. I too was unable to see much at the back end of the storm, although that was mainly because I had soaked trousers and trainers so had to spend sometime getting changed
. As you say, storms then erupted further north and out of reach.
Regarding a tornado in Littlehampton. The storms looked to be elevated and so I think a tornado is unlikely. I'm no expert but it was much more likely damage from straight line winds. Some of the gusts were quite ferocious as the storm came over.
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In hindsight I probably travelled further than I needed to last night, but was it worth it?
Initially I had headed down the M1 to the M25 with the idea to head east. With little consistency on the models I didn't really have a plan, although I was favouring somewhere like Essex or Kent. I therefore headed east and through the Dartford tunnel, by which time the Channel had come alive with sferics. The problem was, 90% of those sferics were in the mid Channel and I was headed towards the Eastern Channel.
So I decided I was going to abandon the idea of Kent and headed westwards on the M25 with a new target of somewhere near Brighton. As I approached a sudden increase of lightning occurred to my northwest. A storm had broken out but as it was heading north it was moving away from me so I continued to the coast, eventually deciding on Worthing to be my target. The lightning detectors were showing an immense amount of lightning heading in there.
As I arrived in Worthing I could see frequent flashes of lightning, but it took frustratingly long to reach the coast. Although in reality it was only about 5 minutes but I wanted to get there. When I did I got out of my car to a display of strobe lightning over the sea and a constant roar of thunder. I don't remember seeing such frequent lightning in the UK (maybe back on the storm of 17-18th July 2017). I saw no CGs at all, which was a little disappointing, but the spectacle of the constant lightning and thunder felt quite exciting.
I had just arrived in time to see the storm approach and when it did it arrived quickly. A sudden torrent of rain and gusty winds turned the shelter I was using into a wet wind tunnel. It was hard finding a place to film where I wasn't being blasted as if I was actually out to sea in a storm! I was not the only one sheltering there. A few people had gathered taking photos and watching the spectacle. I wonder if any of them are reading this
. Either way, we were all getting wet under the shelter.
I am unsure how long it lasted but it did not take long for everywhere to become under water. I decided there was no point standing in the rain any longer and so ran back to the car. Unfortunately I wrecked my trainers as I had no choice but to paddle in ankle deep water.
From this point on I chased the storm, but I never caught it up again. Further storms were developing to the north but were all moving away from me at a rate I couldn't keep up with. The lightning frequency seemed to drop off, but occasionally there was a burst of more frequent distant lightning. Either way though, the storms were moving faster than me driving on very wet or flooded roads.
So was it worth it. I saw a biblical downpour of rain accompanied by gale force gusts of wind and arguably the most frequent lightning of my storm chase career. But I drove a long way and the chase back proved unsuccessful, the storms I was chasing were moving too fast. Well in hindsight, I don't regret the drive. I think it was worth it. A good 'potential' end to the 2023 storm chase season for me
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58 minutes ago, Sam jackson88 said:
where is your gut feeling telling you to go, sometimes listening to it you might be happily supprissed
26 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:You’re brave
I dunno if it’s worth it tbh as there is a decent chance we will miss out completely, although there’s also pretty good odds we will get something as it gets dark.
Which area you headed to?
It could easily come to nothing but in all honesty I think the risk is worth it. This is quite likely my last real storm chase of 2023.
My gut is saying somewhere along or east of a line from Brighton to Cambridge. Question is how east of this line. Last year on October 23rd I head to Essex as this area looked primed, but the storms erupted northwards to my west through Luton, Milton Keynes etc. I don't want a repeat of that.
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I've decided to bite the bullet and head down towards the southeast. I am not sure where I'm going yet other than south east.
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I'm seriously contemplating driving down to areas south and east of London this evening.
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@Rufus Butterfield @CoventryWeather
I used to feel the embarrassment of standing and filming a thunderstorm when I first started, as if i was doing something wrong. But the truth is, you should never feel embarrassed about having a hobby, especially one as interesting as storm chasing or storm photography. In my view it makes you a more interesting person than the vast majority that follow the 'norms'. I still get funny looks now, but I either think it's because they don't understand and so I ignore them, or chuckle inside as to what they must think of someone who stands in the rain for fun
. Either way, it won't stop me enjoying my hobby.
Feel proud you have found something that interests you.
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Here is the video from this past Sunday's storm chase
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1 hour ago, Southern Storm said:
Amazing stills! I think you were in the perfect position for filming the storm, closer isn't always better in my opinion, and to record the storm at golden hour is just the icing on the cake. Well done and thanks for sharing!
Looking forward to seeing the finished video if you decide to post it
Thank you. Having watched my footage back I have lost all feeling of disappointment that I missed out on seeing the severe weather. As you say, closer isn't always better.
The video is uploading as I type
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3 minutes ago, minus10 said:
Wow..... an amazing display and great stills @Supacell, beautiful scenes with the rainbow too..some of those flashes looked pretty close...or was it the light and the angles etc...storms while they can be devestating are also just so beautiful when the angles are right...
Thank you. I'd say the closest were about 2-3 miles away but they were also occurring much further out to sea also.
It helped that I was standing on a hill with a wide view across the coast.
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Just been editing my video from Sunday. I just managed to reach the town of Saltfleet (a few miles north of Mablethorpe) in time to catch the northern limit of the storm. But it was as I stood on the coast near a little village called Theddlethorpe that I was treated to a fantastic display of lightning as storms that had previously affected Lincolnshire grazed the coast for about an hour. The display was made even better by a rainbow and then the red glow of the setting sun behind me.
Missed out on being under the core of the storm, which was about 30-40 miles to my south and I had no chance of reaching there in time, but the lightning display was one of the best i have seen in a long time.
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1 hour ago, DanN said:
I'd say we don't have enough data. Look at some of the convection allowing ensemble suites that are available for North America. We have a handful of deterministic CAMs to take a look at but they are limited in true value, I think. Especially for those that like to chase on a day like yesterday. I think there are also some misconceptions on how these models work, how many people realise that the WRF is not just one model? There are many flavours out there and most of them are initiated from the GFS, Netweather's NMM for example, Manunicast's WRF (very rarely gets mentioned here) or the WRF at modelzentrale.de, all with different physics. I'd love to have more data, but then I'm a storm/model junkie
Agreed. I probably should have said we don't have the right data.
Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
May aswell take this opportunity to plug my YouTube channel dedicated to storm chasing. A lot of videos on here taken from my past 9 years of storm chasing. I will have been chasing for 20 years this year with my first video being taken in August 2004. A time where I had no internet on the move and relied on interference on an AM radio to detect lightning
. It's strange thinking back to those days and how much harder it was to chase storms.
https://youtube.com/@supacellstormchasing
I'm looking forward to April onwards. Hopefully will be getting lots more footage for my channel.