Certainty on models have been quite good for the past few weeks, although there is some uncertainties past day 6 on majority this morning.
Of course the likelihood of a dry settled warm spell seems unlikely, but there were hints a few days ago, and the MET ensembles for 192 seems a little interested in the idea. Icon also interested this morning on a decent ridge from the Azores.
Wouldn't rule anything else, seems the uncertainty is coming from the stratosphere behaviour I believe. We all know how rapidly changes can occur.