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yamkin

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Posts posted by yamkin

    06z model discussions - wet and windy soon?!

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I agree, there is No Way there is going to be a heavy snowfall from this...... Expect even more downgrades.

    Im so disapointed, I thought I would see some great SNOWS this week, even if it did melt after, its better than rain.

    If you see ONE downgrade, why do you go into the doom and gloom mode??!! :)

    Over the two week period, we have seen upgrades and downgrades!! That's the beauty of model watching.

    Don't give up just yet as the battle of Cold v Mild is still on. I would say to you, 'Expect Upgrades as well'. :)

    18z Model discussion - snow but how much and where?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    How funny

    I come back from an enjoyable night at the cinema watching Rocky Bilbao, only to see the Net Weather Heavyweight Battle home page headline!

    I look at the charts and see ECM and GFS completely at odds with each other.

    Then I find Paul and WIB trading posting blows in the model output forum.

    What theatre!

    Back to the 18z, not so good for far south (but better for midlands northwards) - but the divergence between models at such short notice is slightly alarming - I'd still back GFS/UKMO just, but ECM is getting to the stage where if it doesn't win out, it will be in permanant denial (i.e. credability shot to pieces).

    S

    Depends where far South you are referring too. Don't be too hasty just yet. More surprises in store. B)

    Goodnight all.

    18z Model discussion - snow but how much and where?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I have posted this link a few times this evening but the discussions here are very important for our cold spell. See paragraph 2 where it talks about

    CORE OF NEGATIVE ANOMALIES

    TRACKING ACROSS THE NRN ATLC APPEARS TOO PROGRESSIVE...

    This suggests that the models are being too quick to push low pressure across the atlantic towards the uk. Also paragraph 3 highlighting uncertainty.

    AFTER DAY 3... MODELS SHOW

    MEANINGFUL DIFFS WITH INDIVIDUAL SHRTWVS WITHIN THE NERN CONUS AND

    ERN PAC MEAN TROFS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE FEATURES...

    LIKELY NOT TO BE RESOLVED SATISFACTORILY UNTIL THE SHORT RANGE

    TIME FRAME...

    These shortwave features forming off the PV are important in relation to us, if the models are being too progressive then the scandi high is likely to get a better chance to build.

    The full discussions are available here.

    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

    NS, A very good observation. This is precisely what the MetO have been observing for some time now. It does look like the Scandi High will build with stronger resistance. Exciting times with upgrades to come. :p By the way, I'm expecting even colder temps than forecast. :)

    Glimmer of hope model discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by yamkin

    Don't laugh but here is a map i've drawn where I think the greatest risk of snowfall shall be.

    post-1766-1170528882_thumb.jpg

    Obviously my region is included :lol:

    Not a bad DIY snow risk chart!

    Very surprised by WIB's comments earlier on.

    I think it may be due to the models shifting away from his predictions/forecasts and going for a colder outlook.

    Get ready for upgrades with delight. :lol:

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