Tom Montalbano

Evening all, Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. After viewing the 12z Forecast Model runs, as HOTSPUR62 states above it does appear that we are in for a spell of Higher pressure close to the U.K., than we've seen for some time. But as H62 also states, the S.E, Region will be the last region in the U.K., to experience gradually increasing temperatures. By the early part of next Week, max. temperatures in our region, look to be around 8c during the Day, with Nighttime mins, around 5c. As MeteoGroup have yet to publish their Weather for the Week ahead video, instead thought I would post up a Youtube clip of the thoughts of the Met Office, and their idea of the 10 Day trend, courtesy of Alex Deakin. It's very detailed and well worth a watch, with a conservative hint, of a possible, Sudden Stratospheric Warming: As Alex states in the Youtube clip abve, the Met Office have also produced an explanatory video regarding the dynamics of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming, and the possible resulting Wintry Weather, for the U.K. Thought I would post up a few shamelessly "cherry-picked" 500hPa charts, from the 12z European model [ECM] run and the 12z Canadian model [GEM] run. As you can seen below, the European model has 2 attempts at retrogressing a ridge of High pressure to Greenland, the first attempt at t168, which doesn't quite take "root" but has another bash, at t240: 12z ECM [t168] Weds. 25th Jan, 12z ECM [t240] Sat. 28th Jan, Meanwhile, the Canadian model GEM], goes all the way at t216 and t240: 12z GEM [t216] Fri. 27th Jan, 12z GEM [t240] Sat. 28th Jan, All way out in F.I. of course but allied to the small S.S.W, tease from the Met Office, makes for interesting model watching, at the moment!! Almost forgot the following P.S., as the majority of S.E. members missed out on the "white stuff" this time around, you may gain some compensation by qualifying for a Cold Weather payment and every penny counts, art the moment. Below, is a link to those English postcodes that qualify for a payment, if you meet the DWP's criteria for certain benefits: Cold Weather Payments Checker - Gov UK (dwp.gov.uk) Regards, Tom Q.

Evening all, Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. Thought I would throw my hat into the ring, regarding the Synoptic evolution out to t144 [Mon. 23rd Jan] I've chosen this time scale, as we have "cross-model" agreement of all models, from the 12z model runs. You can clearly see that agreement in the four examples I've posted below. I've chosen examples from 2 European models [ECM/UKMO], backed up by 2 North American models [GEM/GFS]. 12z ECM Mon. 23rd Jan, [t144] 12z UKMO Mon. 23rd Jan, [t144] 12z GEM Mon. 23rd Jan, [t144] 12z GFS Mon. 23rd Jan, [t144] As can be clearly seen all 4 models from their 500hPa charts from their operational run, all agree on a strong area of High Pressure over N.W. Russia, running S.W, through Scandinavia, linking up with strong heights close to the Azores. All 4 models depict relatively low heights, over the Mediterranean Basin. Plus, they all show lobes of the Polar Vortex between Baffin Island [N.E.Canada], stretching eastwards across Greenland. As has been mentioned on the MAD Thread, this strong arm of the Northern branch of the Jet Stream, is not allowing High Pressure to ridge westward from Scandinavia, across the G.I.N. [Greenland/Iceland/Norway] corridor. Not wanting to be a "Party Pooper" but think that the current "From Horse" is likely to be a mid Atlantic High, in the region of the U.K. but hopefully that will morph, into something more promising. To facilitate the arrival of our Regions favoured catalyst for a Cold/Wintry spell, we need those low heights over Greenland to relent westward, to Baffin Island. A strong lobe of the Polar Vortex in the Baffin Island area has not been detrimental to a Cold/Wintry spell arriving in the S.E. Region, previously. Below, are three examples of when low heights over Baffin Island proved no hindrance to Cold/Snowy Weather, arriving from the east, over our Region. Example 1] The amazing Jan. 1987 Snowy spell. 2]. Thames Snow Streamer Feb. 2009 event 3]. late Feb/early March BFTE [Beast from the East], event. 00z Mon. 12th January 1987 00z Mon. 2nd February 2009 00z Tues. 27th February 2018 Having just read Sheldon Cooper's [aka Eagle Eye], post on the Model Highlights Thread and being blown away by this young Man's not inconsiderable, technical knowledge. Although I didn't understand it fully, I felt compelled to give you a like, E.E. Does anybody know if there happens to be a Meteorological Roget's Thesaurus, in existence? Really feel that I need one, to fully understand your very detailed posting, E.E.!! Hope you can land your 1 in 3 punt, on a S.S.W. and your Big Bang theory, delivers!! In order to get our "Snow Fix", my Wife and myself, have taken to watching Scandinavian Crime Dramas. Our latest "binge watch" is called OUTLIER. It features a rogue and extremely cold G.F.S. model run, that turns out to be correct. Obviously, very fictional!! But I fib, it's about a Norwegian serial killer but although set mostly in the high Arctic Summer, there are some great scenic shots with patches of Snow still visible, on Mountain peaks. Below, is a link to MeteoGroup's, Weather for the Week ahead courtesy of Sarah Keith-Lucas: Weather for the Week Ahead - BBC Weather Looks as if our Region may have to make do with thar awful phenomenon [Faux Cold], at least for the time being As we are aware, we are currently in a La Nina phase, of the ENSO state and they tend to result in "front loaded" Winters. Really hoping thar our Cold/Snowy Weather "Ship has already sailed" and we are staring down the barrel of a very mild and wet end to Winter. Finally, I have to comment on a Weather related item, I saw on Sky News this Morning. I think the News presenter was Kay Burley. Ms Burley asked a Sky Meteorologist, "where on earth has this cold Weather, come from?". As if a bit of Frost/Snow was unusual at this time of the Year!! Typical over analysis, from Sky in my opinion. Err, it's mid January and therefore mid-Winter Ms Burley, and it's hardly been record breaking has it!! Rant over. Night all. Regards, Tom Q.

Evening all again, Just thought I would post up this link as a Postscript to a post I made on Wednesday Evening. That post contained images sent to me by my eldest Sister, sent to her by my Nephew. They depict some lovely Snowy scenery on Mammoth mountain, in the Sierra Nevada mountain range of California. But the scenery was hardly lovely when my Nephew and his good Lady drove back down from the mountains, to their home at Sherman Oaks, close to Ventura Highway. Please see link to video clip of the road conditions in that part of California, at the time. Apologies but I'm not sure how to post video clips, properly: https://public.am.files.1drv.com/y4masBhiKk4J_GfDinrkPbU9xOcLgGDEtD0DXJsjC8lokKKgWFgK9czijzzGvag4nVn9XtVzfotDYWsLr-TRKAonOM9Wyhp2pKeWTdp_Sy4HLj_q2R5J5l9q9tm0vwByYP0iGxm7bQJGqkrcEU9gzd9uxfqgA4zI5uOUgeS9HifCAHQHVrAq6wL-te4f7o5Sk334a93JpE3jk7hnl3esljXTdJiGam1NXITgmXg88eDwWo? As we are aware, parts of the West coast of the U.S.A, has been pummelled by a series of vigorous low pressure systems, from the Pacific, As you can see in the video clip, flooding has been very bad, near where my Nephew lives. Finally, a very tenuous excuse for this old Hippy, to post up the following Youtube clip of music, from Ametica: As we've seen recently, the sun doesn't always shine on Ventura Highway, or California in general but I'm sure its Towns, do look good in Snow!! Regards, Tom Q.

Evening all. Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. Happy Birthday Pete and to all those Capricorn Goats , out there. You've still got over a Year+, to catch up with this old f--t up!! As you state, the '78/'79 was a cracker and quite wildly fluctuating at times. The first chart below is the 500hPa Synoptic chart at 00z, 31st Dec, 1978 and has been my Laptop wallpaper, for many Years. The finest example of a "Snowmageddon" making Channel Low I've witnessed, since I became interested in Meteorology. 500hPa 00z 31st December 1978 8500hPa 00z 31st December 1978 / Please accept the 500hPa chart below, also another former Laptop wallpaper of mine, as a Birthday gift. Today is the 36th Anniversary of that incredibly Cold/Snowy spell, that descended on the S.E. Region back in January 1987. 500hPa 06z 13th January 1987 8500hPa 06z 13th January 1987 / I was working for Tour Operators Cosmos at the time, who had their Head Office in my home Town of Bromley, Kent. All the Head Office staff were sent home just after lunch, with all forms of Transport severely affected by the heavy Snowfall. There were hardly any Buses or Trains running, in the Bromley area. I was living in Anerley, about 4 miles West of Bromley, at the time. Can vividly remember trudging through 6 inches of Snow in Bromley Town centre, to get to Bromley South station. I had an extremely long wait for a Train but eventually a stopping Train to London Victoria turned up, and Yours Truly gratefully jumped aboard. Completed my journey on foot, from Penge East station to my Maisonette, in Anerley. Arrived home totally exhausted, and frozen to the marrow!! A member of staff at Bromley South station told me, that Southern Region weren't able to run any Trains east of Swanley, as lines in East Kent were blocked by the heavy, drifting Snow. Railway lines in other parts of the South East were only operating a "skeleton" service, by running "ghost" de-icing Trains, throughout the British Rail Southern Region. Regards, Tom Q.

Evening all, Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. Yes S-MK, had enough of this mild and unsettled dross now!! Fortunately for Yours Truly, a very painful left shoulder probably caused by poor posture whilst typing at my Laptop, has now eased greatly, allowing me to resume my hobby. Having read up on ergonomics and how poor posture can impact on your health, I've taken the advice on-board, and have became ergonomically savvy!! But, I never realised shoulder pain could be so excruciatingly painful. Please be warned!! Anyway, enough of my shoulder woes and back to the Weather. It looks as if it remains unsettled for the next few Days with the Jet Stream, starting to dive S.E., resulting in the U.K. arriving on the cold side of the Jet Stream. Below, are a few Forecast Charts for t144/T168 [Tues/Weds. 17th/18th Jan.], from a U.K. perspective: 12z 500hPa ECMWF t144 [Tues. 17th Jan]. 12z 850hPa ECMWF t144 [Tues. 17th Jan]. 12z 2 metre Temp.ECMWF t144 [Tues. 17th Jan]. The European model has an area of Low Pressure diving S.E across the U.K. to be centred over N.E. France by 12z, next Tuesday. Upper Air temperatures [850hPa], are between -5c and -6c, for the majority of the S.E. Region, with surface temps a couple of degrees above freezing. 12z 500hPa GFS t144 [Tues. 17th Jan]. 12z 850hPa GFS t144 [Tues. 17th Jan]. 12z 2 metre Temp GFS t144 [Tues. 17th Jan]. The American model has an area of Low Pressure diving S.E across the U.K. but centred further North, to be sitting just off the Dutch coast, by 12z, next Tuesday. Upper Air temperatures [850hPa], are between -5c and -6c, for the majority of the S.E. Region, with surface temps a few degrees higher than its European counterpart. 12z 500hPa UKMO/EU t168 [Weds. 18th Jan]. 12z 850hPa UKMO/EU t168 [Weds. 18th Jan]. 12z 2 metre Temp UKMO/EUt168 [Weds. 17th Jan]. A combination of the Met Office and a European model has an area of Low Pressure transferring E, across the U.K. a Day later than the other Two models but similar to its American counterpart, has it centred further North, over the Netherlands by 12z, next Wednesday. Again, Upper Air temperatures [850hPa], are between -5c and -6c for the majority of the S.E. Region, with surface temps similar to the GFS model. Should these Models be accurate in their projected Forecasts for next Tuesday/Wednesday, I would expect some of our Region to see some falling Snow but this would be more likely over any high ground in our Region, whilst the majority of our Regional members will most likely experience, just cold Rain!! This regime of a S.E. diving Jet Stream with associated areas of Low Pressure can be clearly seen indicated by MeteoGroups Weather fir the week ahead, courtesy of Stav Danaos. See link below: Weather for the Week Ahead - BBC Weather Looking at the Forecast Charts Stav uses in his Forecast, they seen to match the 00z ECMWF. But as he suggests, we will need to keep an eye on Low Pressure moving around the base of that troughing, which could engage thar Cold Arctic/Maritime Air, sitting to the North of the S.E. Region. As he states on the boundary of the conflicting air masses, there could well be a significant Snow event. Stav finishes his Week ahead Forecast with a tease that although the flow is likely to turn back to an Atlantic sourced flow after midweek next Week, cold air will never be too far away!! I'd like to end this post with a few Snow images, my Sisters emailed myself. The first 2 are from my younger Sister, and is of my Niece in the early December Snowfall in a Park near their home, on the border of Farnborough Village and Orpington, just about a Mile down the road from "our" own HOTSPUR, in Locksbottom: The final Two images are from much further afield and from my eldest Sister, courtesy of my Nephew, who lives in California: They were taken at Mammoth Mountain, in California's Sierra Nevada Mountain range: Mmm, if only!! Regards, Tom Q.

A Very Merry Christmas, to all our South East Regional members. Hope you're all having a lovely Christmas Day. 'Er indoors is just putting the finishing touches to our Christmas Dinner, which would've been one of those 3 Bird Roast thingys but due to the cost of living crisis, we've had to opt for one of those 3 Bread Toast thingys, Allinsons [even that's got too expensive], Hovis and Sainsburys own, topped off with a tin of value brand baked beans!! But I lie of course, we just scraped together enough money to afford the former. Like SNOWANGEL-MK, I've been in the wars as well, with an excruciatingly painful shoulder blade. 'Er indoors tells me it's down to bad posture, when sitting over my Laptop. I'm now banned by the Missus from hosting my Winter Horse Racing Competition, which from Tomorrow until New Year's Day would've been chock-a-block with Racing. Just as it was when I was working in the Bookmaking industry. Being the cheapskate as I am and as money is so tight, we can't afford to send out individual Christmas cards. Therefore, I will have to send you the following Group one: Cats' carol - Christmas - send free eCards from 123cards.com Very best wishes to all, Tom, Colette and our little Kitty, Signorina Mia .

Good Morning all, Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. Was tipping it down here in S,E.London, as was during Laura Tobin's Weather forecasts on Good Morning Britain, from the east of mine and my Wife's home Borough of Bromley, over in Petts Wood, Orpington. Had a very sleepless night with a very painful shoulder, which was made worse by Vicky "the Vixen" Brush, practising her attempt at a Christmas number One with her cover version of Withering Heights, on no less than four separate occasions. Due to last Week's bitterly cold and snowy Weather, Vicky had to cancel all her "appointments". This has really annoyed the Asthmatic Dog Fox, Dougal. More on that, soon. Evidently, Vicky was concerned that she might become "welded" to one of her "punters" [namely Dougal], whilst in a frozen amorous "union". Vicky also had a bit of a throat last Week and was conspicuous by her absence. But Vicky was back to her screeching best this Morning and is preparing to appear on BBC One's, Top of the Foxes, on Christmas Day Afternoon. Vicky has managed to persuade her Cousin, Kate Brush, to do a duet with her on Christmas Day. Kate has even agreed for Vicky to change the following lyric: "Heathcliff, it's me, I'm Cathy I’ve come home, I'm so cold Let me in-a-your window Heathcliff, it's me, I'm Cathy I’ve come home, I'm so cold Let me in-a-your window" to this below: "Dougal, it's me, I'm Vicky. I've come home but I'm not cold. No need to let me in-a-your window Dougal, it's me, I'm Vicky I've come home but I'm not cold. No need to let me in-a-your window" But Vicky's multiple appearances this Morning, was also to announce her verdict on the South East Region's prospect, of a White Christmas. After one more final look at the 00z Model Runs, Vicky cleared her throat and the "Fox Lady" has sung, there's NO chance of a White Christmas, down here in the South East. Not really Rocket Science though is it Vicky? When was the last one, Foxy Lady? Meanwhile in a childish fit of pique at having his "appointment" with Vicky cancelled, Dougal the Dog Fox has released his own Single, in a cynical ploy to beat Vicky to a Christmas Number One. Dougal has recorded a rehashed version of the Jimi Hendrix classic Purple Haze, to mark the reappearance of the Polar Vortex, after it had disappeared for a while. Dougal has called his version, Purple Blob [You're just a Polar slob], and has even changed the following lyrics Jimi Hendrix's Verse 1: Purple haze all in my brain Lately things, they don't seem the same Acting funny, but I don't know why 'Scuse me while I kiss the sky. Dougal's Verse 1: Purple blob all in my brain Don't know if it will ever Snow again Polar Vortex appears back on a chart 'Scuse me while I do a f--t. Jimi Hendrix's Verse 2: Purple haze all around Don't know if I'm coming up or down Am I happy or in misery? Whatever it is, that girl put a spell on me Dougal's Verse 2: Purple blob all around I know it's Rain not Snow, that's gonna come down Am I happy or in misery? Whatever it is, that ECM put a spell on me. And they said the art of Song writing was dead? My advice Dougal, is don't give up the Day job, which evidently is being Vicky's "sponsor". But Dougal, I hope you are an infinitely better guitarist, than you are a Song writer!! Regards, Tom Q. Vicky Vixen and Dougal-Dog Fox.

Evening all, Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. Yes, I'm pretty sure that's now correct, Alexis. The Beeb now receive their Forecasts from MeteoGroup, rather than the Met Office. Below, is a link to BBC's Weather for the Week ahead, with Chris Fawkes: Weather for the Week Ahead - BBC Weather After ending it's association with the Mat Office, the BBC signed a new deal with MeteoGroup, a private Weather forecasting organisation with its HQ in Utrecht, Netherlands. BBC Weather launches a new look - Media Centre Chances of a White Christmas for our Region, seem to be diminishing now. But some on the MAD Thread, still seem to be in denial. There's an "Elephant in the room" and the "King's new clothes", spring to mind and I think we're in need of a "Christmas Miracle". To my Amateurish eye, all Models are now seeming to want to flatten the pattern. And Vicky "the Vixen" Brushs' cover version of her Cousin [Kate Brush], for her attempt at a Christmas No.1 with "Withering Heights", is now beginning to look, very prophetic. Heights over Greenland do appear to be withering indeed Vicky, if recent Model runs, are to be believed. But Sammy is aware, that our Region would be much happier if - Scandy Mandy [the Scandinavian High], would suddenly appear in the Synoptic charts. No offence - Greta the Greenland High. But 'twas ever the case, in the S.E. Region. We then may have a chance of a visit from - The Beast from the East, aided by - the Russian Bear [Siberian Anticyclone]. After taking a break way out East, our old enemy the "Purple Blob" - Aka, Pernicious Victor the Polar Vortex, is showing signs of returning to his normal wintering grounds of Greenland/E.Canada. Hope Malcolm doesn't mind but speaking of the "Purple Blob", Sammy and Samantha Snowmen - / The couple would like to apologise for the failure to repeat their S.E, Regional Pantomime ["Countdown to Christmas, with Sammy Snowman] But the loved up couple have their hands full, with their young Family - Saul and his twin Sister - Sarah. An amazing Family likeness there, don't you agree? Sammy was thinking of doing a Christmas item entitled one of the following and some plagiarising of some ITV "virtual" reality shows - 1. - T.O.W.I.S.E. L [The Only Way Is South East London]. 2. I'm a NW Member, get me out of here. 3. - Christmas Day Weather, with the NW Masked Weather Forecaster. But as Sammy has been busy with a World Cup Competition, those "ships have sailed". But as the World Cup has now finished, Sammy is looking to put together an item entitled - Sammy Snowman's Christmas Hamper. Lots of fun items, including a Christmas Charades, feature. Sammy is endeavouring to put that item together, over the next few Days. Regards, Tom Q., Sammy and Samantha.

Another archived Thread I found, whilst scrummaging around in the Netwaether vaults, was the following one regarding ac Meteorologist called Colin Finch. Finch had a theory regarding maximum December temperatures over Southern England, during the Two Weeks prior to Christmas. Below, is a link to that Thread. The Thread was started by a Forum Host called Terminal Moraine, who lived in Derbyshire. As I used to listen to Colin Finch, who had an early Friday Morning slot on a local London Radio Station, I thought I would contribute to the Thread. I know Climatology has moved on in recent Years but I still think it's an interesting read. I would imagine the criteria for Finch's 3C Rule, may well have been met in our Region, during the past Week. Below, is a link to that Thread: C. Finch's 37- rule - Winter Weather Discussion - Netweather Community Weather Forum Regards, Tom Q.

Yes S.H., that makes me feel very old!! Below is a link to the Winter Carols Thread, from November 2007, where you will find other contributions from S.E. Regional Members, at that time. Winter Carols - Winter Weather Discussion - Netweather Community Weather Forum Regards, Tom Q.

Yes Lass, that would be BARBARA THE BARTLETT/EUNICE THE EURO SLUG. She appeared in Sammy Snowman's Christmas Pantomime, last December. Can be a very stubborn and slow moving individual, once she gets settled in. Regards, Tom Q.

Morning all, Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. Have been rummaging around in the NW archives, as is my wont. Do you have any recollection of writing these little ditties MAF, back in November 2007? TO THE TUNE OF "SILENT NIGHT" MAF's contribution Silent site, quiet site, All is lost though the FI might, forever keeping hopes up high, never showing any snow in the sky. TEITS is dreaming of easterlieeeeeesl, reading charts through smokey haze. Winter has gone agaaaaaain. Winter has gone again. My contribution After midnight, 00zs in sight. All are fraught, all are tight. Round yon 500s, archived and filed. Holy grail charts, bitter not mild. This mild rubbish will cease. This mild rubbish will cease. After midnight, 00zs in sight. Mushymanrob quakes with fright. Bifurcated jet stream from Newfoundland. Aah!! TEITS sings Alleluia!!. Finally a true Greenie is born. Finally a true Greenie is born. After midnight, 00zs in sight. Son of Siberia, rampers delight. Thrusting a ridge from a NE place. Linking with Greenie, LOOK at TEITS face! Real northern blocking of worth. Real northern blocking of worth. MAF with his version of The First Noel The first Graupel the WiBs did say was to certain poor forecasters, It is never going to lay in fields where OON lay; keeping his sheep on a cold winter's night, that was so deep. Oh well, Oh well the first Graupel, born is the Winter of 2007 They looked up and saw a cloud afar, snowing in the East beyond them far. And to TEITS it gave great light, and so it continued both day and night. Oh well Oh well the first Graupel. Born is the Winter of 2007! And by the light of that snow afar, three wise men came from country far, To seek for PP was their intent, and to follow the shower wherever it went. Oh well Oh well the first Graupel. Born is the Winter of 2007. MAF's version of Away in a Manger Away in a fluster, no snow on their head, TEITS and Andy Leics, posted their views of the models ahead. The clouds in the heavens, poured down snow that day. The little GMG, asleep after been on NW all day. The members are moaning, the Bartlett awakes, But little Steve M,no tracker he makes. I love the snow showers come down from the sky, and stay by my window lamppost watching all night. SHOOTERS HILL (S.E.London)., by Yours Truly An ode to snowfall in N.Kent and areas nearby To the tune of "SOLSBURY HILL" (With profound apologies to Mr.P.Gabriel). Climbing up on Shooters Hill, I could see the orange light. East wind blowing, bitter chill. Blizzard blew out of the night. It was something to observe. Feeling every frozen flake, drifting, filling every curve. Muffled landscape in its wake. I did not believe the UKMO. (Did) Darren Bett just say the word SNOW? (At) least it WONT be mild, mild, mild. Stevie M said, "Grab your coat, I'm going for a chase." ("I'm Medway bound.") To mild winters we're resigned, my partner thinks I am a nut Global Warming is the whine. GIN corridor can't be shut. This winter could be different yet. (If) highs settle where they need to be, then "jet" she does a pirouette. Something stirs in the North Sea. I knew what the smile on KWs face meant, Streamer just kicking off in North Kent Radar showing red, red, red. Stevie M said, "Grab your coat, I'm going for a chase." ("Via Thurrock."). Obviously, S.E. London was the place to be, for song writing talent. Really hope you didn't put a patent on your contributions MAF, otherwise I'm in big trouble!! Squeezed up the lyrics together, to save on space. Hope Dave [TEITS] and KW [Kold Weather], aren't going to claim any royalties!! Regards, Tom Q.

Yes Jamesg, Can confirm light Snow here in Lee, at the moment. Regards, Tom Q.

Morning all, Hope I find yourselves and your Families well, and those that had some Snow, hope you enjoyed a little bit of the pre-Christmas, white stuff. Below, area images of how the Snowfall unfolded, at about 8 yesterday Evening. Apologies for those offensive green objects, that were lined up waiting for Lewisham's, Refuse Engineers [Dustmen]. Plus our back Garden at about the same time, with our Leylandii trees, draped in a mantle of white: This Morning, my Wife Colette took this photo of our newly adopted Kitty [Signorina Mia], surveying a very wintry scene across the rooftops, of S.E. London. There are no flies or fleas for that matter on our Mia, who is sitting above the radiator in our spare bedroom, and feels very cosy and snug there, thank you very much. Thought the Refuse Engineers did very well to collect the bins, on their normal Monday rubbish collecting Day. For some reason our Close gets extremely icy, during and after Snowfall. I've never quite understood why that an Inner London Borough, albeit at it's Southern most extremity, has a Road that becomes so treacherous and icy. When my Wife was working in a Residential Care Home on the Chislehurst/Elmstead Woods border, Minicab drivers refused to drive, down our Close. Now, in no way is the Lewisham area, London's version of Verkhoyansk but I can guarantee that in a Day or so's time, our Close will be like a skating rink, and as we are only at 41 metres A.S.L., have always found it difficult to get my head around it!! A lot has been mentioned of the December 2010 Snowfalls but for Yours Truly, I'm old enough to remember December 1981. That Arctic December also came on the back of a very strong block of High Pressure, over Greenland. As I stated the other Day, after the initial Snowfall, there was a period of very severe frosts. Mild air tried to make incursions into the U.K. but was seemingly kept at bay, by the bitter entrenched cold. A series of small Lows, ran just to the South of the U.K., across France. This topped up any lying Snow, as did this feature that was a result of the 500hPa chart, shown below. Although Christmas Day was bitterly cold, with a deep Snow cover under a small ridge of High Pressure, the 2+ Week wintry spell was on it's last legs. 06z Christmas Eve, 1981 06z Christmas Day, 1981 06z Boxing Day, 1981 As we are aware, Forecasts are suggesting that the present cold spell will be coming to an end, during this coming Weekend. But will the cold and Snow return, as it did in January 1982, as it did at the end of that first Week? 06z 6th January 1982 Understanding the MOJO [Maddening-Obscure-Julian- Oscillation], is way above Yours Truly and I'll leave that to the likes of Malcolm [Blessed Weather], and Eagle Eye. To Yours Truly, it looks like a naughty child has scribbled on the Lounge wall with a felt tipped pen, or perhaps run riot with an Etch - A - Sketch: Really showing my age, there. Once got one of these for Christmas, until it got damaged and leaked silver glitter al over myself and my Parents Lounge. Are they still available, to buy? Back to this very wintry Weather. Don't want to sound ungrateful us a Snow lover but it's arrival is a "double-edged sword", for Colette and myself. Tomorrow Morning, we were planning to get a bit of healthy exercise, whilst collecting my very important Blood Pressure medication, followed by an early Brunch, at our recently discovered favourite Eatery. But that is looking highly unlikely now, given the current Weather conditions and our ongoing health issues. Colette is now riddled with Psoriatic Arthritis and has to use a walking stick if venturing outside, whilst I still have balance problems, after my Stroke in September 2015. In the present underfoot conditions, we are both likely to go "A over T", after a few gingerly taken steps!! We liked nothing more than a Snow Chase, back in the Day. But these avid Snow Chasers are now resigned to being Snow Watchers, and like a nosey neighbour are resigned to peeking through the blinds/curtains, or having a crafty gander out of the front door. We hope those that have Snow, are able to get out and enjoy it. We just would like to say, we've both enjoyed looking at Regional Members, Snow photos. This is likely to be our main source of our "Snow fix", now. Regards, Tom Q., Colette and Mia.

Evening all, Hope I find yourselves and your Families well, and that you're enjoying the Festive As you're only around 6 miles to the East of us, took your cue Leeanne [SNOW RAVEN], and had a peek out of the curtains. Sure enough it is Snowing with big fluffy flakes. Unfortunately, my not very "Smart" phone is playing up but my Wife Colette, has just come to the rescue. Colette has the same model of Mobile that I have, and has just taken a video clip of the Snow falling and settling, in our Close. Once she has emailed the footage to me, I will post it up. Regards, Tom Q.

Good Morning all, Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. Was rudely awakened just after 3 A.M.. by Vicky the Vixen, our resident Female Fox but her screams sounded vaguely familiar. More on that, later. Let's get straight to the "nitty gritty", of the 00z Model runs. I didn't need to be told what the temperature was, when I went for an early Morning Bathroom visit. My tingling skin suggested temperatures were close, to freezing point. Plus the Moon shining through our Bedroom blinds, confirmed we were well and truly under, the "Wishbone Effect". I will now take a look at the ECMWF, GFS and UKMO/EU for 00z for Tomorrow and a Week's time t168 [Thurs. 15th Dec]. I'll begin with the ECMWF: 00z ECMWF Fri. 9th Dec. [t24] 00z GFS Fri. 9th Dec. [t24] 00z UKMO/EU Fri. 9th Dec. [t24] As you'd expect at such close range, all 3 Models are pretty much singing from the same hymn sheet. The most striking feature, being the very strong heights over Greenland. I'll now fast forward a Week to Thursday 15th December [t168]: 00z ECMWF Thurs. 15th Dec. [t168] 00z GFS Thurs. 15th Dec. [t168] 00z UKMO/EU Thurs 15th Dec. [t168] Perhaps surprisingly, pretty strong agreement from all 3 Models, at a Weeks range. The GFS has seemingly come into line, with its European counterparts. Some leaking away of those strong yellows towards Canada but not overly so. The interesting feature is the area of Low Pressure, moving towards the S.W. approaches. If does appear to be taking quite a Southerly track, and may well be deflected further South by the now dense and entrenched, bitterly cold air. Some of you will be aware that the GFS 00z will be when Christmas Day [t384/16 Days], appears on the American Models radar, for the first time. Just want to take a quick look at what the 00z GFS showed for Christmas Eve: 00z GFS Sat. 24th Dec. [t384] The strong yellow heights over Greenland have now disappeared, with a section of the Polar Vortex knocking on the door. But the American Model now suggesting a strong rise of pressure, depicted by those oranges/yellows, over Scandinavia. Although the next few Days, the great majority of our Region looks to be under the influence, of the "Wishbone Effect", there is plenty in those 00z Model runs for Cold/Snow lovers, to be positive about. We are now starting to experience some pretty sharp overnight Frosts, and likely to do so over the next Week, as long as the Sky stays clear, at Night. This will have the effect of lowering soil temperatures, after many Months of above average temperatures. Although a Week is still a long way off in Computer Model terms, some encouraging signs are emerging that any areas of Low Pressure that do approach the U.K,, may well do so on quite a Southerly trajectory. Should this be the case, our Region could well be under threat from some disruptive Snow, before the Festive period. Now to return to my opening gambit, regarding Vicky the Vixen, our Resident Female Fox. You may well not be aware that Vicky's Surname, is actually Brush. Vicky the Vixen, is actually her Artistic name. She is the Cousin of the lovely Kate Brush - Seen above , sporting her Winter coat. Kate is a local Girl of ours and hales from Bexleyheath, just 6 Miles East of here. and also Kate's half Brother, Basil - The Brushes like to keep their Celebrity, in the Family. What woke Yours Truly up at just after 3 A.M. was Vicky shooting a Video to accompany her cover version of her Cousin's Withering Heights: If you tune into BBC's "Top of the Foxes", you will see Vicky miming to Withering Heights, which her record Company Fox Records, are hoping will be No.1, at Christmas. If by magic, I've been able to obtain a Video clip of Vicky performing Withering Heights, this Morning. Now, not only does Vicky resemble Kate Brush, she also sounds like her. Therefore you may want to deploy some ear plugs into your lugholes, which is what I would've done, if I had known that Vicky was going to perform, just after 3 A.M. Below is Vicky the Vixen, with Withering Heights: Mmm, not sure you should give up the Night job Vicky but you may want to catch Vicky miming to Withering Heights, against the backdrop of video of an ECMWF Model run, showing heights draining West towards Canada, from Greenland, during BBC's "Top of the Foxes" Christmas Day special. Regards, Tom Q.

Yes TN9, it's always high risk, in the present scenario and one of the reasons I posted that Dec. 31st 1978 Chart, earlier: That was virtually "slide rule" perfection, for the whole of the S.E. Region. In all my Years of being interested in Meteorology, it still remains my favourite event, in terms of Snow accompanied by a Gale force, Easterly wind. It was a Saturday Evening when the "Blizzard" struck [about 8.30I], and I was out having a drink with a couple of colleagues where we worked in East Dulwich, S.E. London. I was living with my Parents at the time, in the North of my home Town of Bromley [border of Kent/S.E.London]. The Snow had begun to drift above pavement level by 11 P.M., even in the inner London Borough of Southwark. Fortunately, one of my colleagues gave me a lift back to Bromley but it was slip/sliding journey and we had to avoid any hilly Roads between Dulwich and Bromley. When we reached my front gate. I couldn't make out the path to my front door, as the drifting was so severe. The biting Easterly Gale was so strong, it took your breath away walking into it. My home Town resembled that painting, "Retreat from Moscow". Even though the following Day was bright and sunny but obviously bitterly cold, the ongoing Easterly wind was still blowing strongly, and even though our main Road, which ran about 100 Yards from my front door, had been cleared of Snow, the wind kept blowing the very powdery Snow off of nearby Cars and Roofs, and covering the main Road [between Grove Park/Bromley North] again, just after it had been cleared by a Snowplough. It was the first time I had seen a Snowplough, on one of Bromley's Roads!! And blow me down with a Feather, I've just found another archived Thread about the event, in the Netweather vaults: Snowstorm Of Dec. 30th/31st 1978 | Historic Weather (netweather.tv) Right, it's time for this old relic, to go and have some Lunch. Afternoon all. Regards, Tom Q.

Good Morning all, Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well Welcome to the first, and hopefully not many more, WishBONE dry Day. See what I did there? I didn't need the METO Website to tell me that London and Crystal Palace, which is near to a former location of mine when I first joined NW, a TomSE20, to inform me that it was just a few degrees above freezing. My tingling skin on a Bathroom visit and the Moon shining through our Bedroom blinds, was the confirmation I needed that we were already in that Arctic sourced, Northerly. But I had to cringe when ITV's London Forecaster [Sally Williams], informed us that it was very cold out there?? Try doing a Paper Round in temps of -5c, accompanied by deep Snow cover, as I did in the late 1960's. That's very cold, Sally!! No Central Heating, back in those Days. The net curtains in my Bedroom, stuck frozen to my windows. Winter's natural frosted glass, for a Front Door. That's what I call very cold, Sally!! But then again, we live in this time of "Climate Change", and this type of Forecast speak has now become the norm!! As I stated the other Day, I have decided to give Sammy and Samantha Snowmen a break from their Countdown to Christmas Panto but will have a look on a Daily basis, how the Synoptics are shaping up, for Christmas Day. We are now only Two Days away from the G.F.S. [American model], showing their idea of how Christmas Day will look, at t384. I will now take a look, at the overnight 00z output. For the next 24 hours or so, we look to be stuck with the Wishbone Effect, syndrome: ECMWF 00z 8th Dec. [t24] GFS 00z 8th Dec.[t24] UKMO/EU 00z 8th Dec. [t24] By Sunday [11th] and t96. all three major models continue to show very strong blocking, around Greenland. At this time the U.K. is under a slack flow, which is likely to be a pretty cold at the surface: ECMWF 00z 8th Dec. [t96] GFS 00z 8th Dec.[t96] UKMO/EU 00z 8th Dec. [t96] By the time we get to next Tuesday [13th] and t144, not surprisingly we start to see some differing solutions, amongst the models: ECMWF 00z 8th Dec. [t144] GFS 00z 8th Dec.[t144] UKMO/EU 00z 8th Dec. [t144] Below, is this Morning's Met Office update, with the continuing suggestion that cold Weather just after mid-Month, could start to relax its grip, over our Region. I've put the relevant sentences in Italics, just to highlight that point: Met Office UK long range weather forecast [11th Dec- 20th Dec]. "Cold weather is expected to continue through at least Sunday and into the beginning of next week, particularly in the north. Wintry showers will mainly affect coastal regions, with snow most likely over higher ground but perhaps falling to lower levels at times. By contrast, inland areas should see more in the way of fine and dry weather, with widespread frosts locally severe at times. While timing is uncertain for now, areas of cloud, rain and stronger winds are increasingly likely to progress into southwestern areas at times, with potential for significant snowfall along the leading edge of such systems. Temperatures remaining cold to very cold, with a chance of returning closer to normal across the south later into the period." Just as a Snowy tease, thought I would post up the 00z ECMWF at t168 [14th Dec]: ECMWF 00z 14th Dec. [t168] It is very reminiscent of the following 500hPa archive chart, albeit some 17 Days later and back on 31st December 1978: ERA 00z 31st Dec. 1978 Along with the following archive Chart - [Mon, 12th Jan. 1987], are my all time favourite "Snowmageddon" Charts. The 31st December 1978 Chart, has been my Laptop's wallpaper, for as many Years as I can remember!! After a jaunt in the Netweather archive vaults and surprised to find my old "Demise of the Greenland High in Winter Thread", thought I would have another nose around, to see what I could find. I came up with the following couple of what I think, are very interesting Threads. Firstly, Paul Sherman's superb analysis of the Thames Snow Streamer event of 1st/2nd February 2009. This will always be known to Yours Truly as the, Polystyrene Balls Affair [apologies Paul]. Below is the link, to Paul's superb analysis: Thames Snow Streamer Event 1/2nd Feb 2009 | Winter Weather Discussion (netweather.tv) It's definitely worth a read, for simply trying to understand why this Thames Snow Streamer "behaved" so differently to other T.S.S. events. I also found the following Thread that Yours Truly began, back in November 2014: UK "Snow Streamer" events. | Winter Weather Discussion (netweather.tv) I also stumbled across another one of my old Threads but I dare not mention it, in here. It has a curse attached to it much more potent than any curse, that may be attributed to an Egyptian Mummy or Pharoah. The very talk of it, could evaporate any chances of Snowfall events in the S.E. Region. It was devised against the backdrop of corrupt and dodgy dealings, amongst talk of "brown envelopes" being exchanged at Addington Village, Tram Stop. But it was an innocent time back in pre-Covid Days and before the mass exodus of S.E. Regional members, to a Facebook page. Our ALEXISJ9 lived in Croydon, as well as Yours Truly working there in the "concrete Jungle". Also, and obviously the inspiration for T.O.W,I.E, one Female Member from Essex actually measured any Snowfall, whilst tottering about in her white stilettoes. Returning to the here and now, if I was still a Betting Man and I was many moons ago but that particular "Avenue of Pleasure" has been well and truly closed, and "little nest of Vipers"/"fire breathing dragon", doesn't want it opened up again. I might be tempted to have a couple of "Virtual" £'s on the likes of EAST_ENGLAND_STORMCHASER, NORFOLK SHEEP, YARMY or any other members in the extreme N.E. of our Region, to record the first Snowflake of the Winter!! Apologies to the above, if it doesn't transpire. Now I've blown it SNOWANGEL-MK, it's your fault for giving me that separate Thread, back in the Day. I had an idea it was you Ali, when you appeared the other Day!! Right that's enough Tomfoolery from me, I've got a World Cup Competition to update!! Regards, Tomtankhamun and my fire breathing Dragon [Wife, Colette].

Evening all, Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. Yes Lpw, I would agree with that. As I mentioned on Friday, the progression of this forecast spell of early Wintry Weather, is very reminiscent of the 2nd Week in December, 1981. After the initial transition to a bitterly cold flow sourced from the Arctic, the whole of the U.K. was plunged into the freezer. The dense bitter air became so embedded that the Atlantic found it really difficult to move into the U.K. Below, are archive charts from a little later in that spell, to illustrate my point: 500hPa 18z Sun.13th Dec. 1981 500hPa 00z Mon.14th Dec. 1981 After a fairly brief spell of heavy Snow, milder air overran our Region but further North it remained bitterly cold with heavy Snow, and when skies cleared at Night, severe Frosts with some record-breaking minimum temperatures. A few Days later, the brief milder incursion was forced away to the South, as a slack area of Low Pressure, crossed N.France. This brought some new Snowfall, as the flow turned back into the East, off a now frigid nearby Continent: 500hPa 00z Weds.16th Dec. 1981 A similar event, occurred on 18th December, as another slack area of Low Pressure was forced further South into Central France. This deposited a further few inches of Snow, for parts of the Southern portions of our Region: 500hPa 06z Fri.18th Dec. 1981 Another slack area of Low Pressure slid a little closer to our Region, this time across N.France. This served to top up the Snow depth, in time for Christmas Day. On Christmas Eve, my Parents location of Bromley North had a Snow depth, just short of 6 inches. Although there was a fair amount of Snow on the ground on the "big" Day, it wasn't technically a "White Christmas", as no new Snow fell from the Sky. Christmas Day itself was bright but bitterly cold, under deep Snow cover. 500hPa 12z Fri.25th Dec. 1981 The Atlantic finally broke through into our Region, late on Boxing Day. 500hPa 18z Fri.26th Dec. 1981 All the above adds weight to the sentiment regarding "get the cold in first". I can remember feeling at the time that some of the Synoptics didn't seem that great for any great Snow events but the entrenched depth of cold resulted in mild Atlantic air being kept at bay, around the periphery of the U.K. In the next few Days, apart from a subtle disturbance running South in the flow, our Region will be at the mercy, of the dreaded - - Wishbone effect. Any Snow/Wintry Showers likely to be restricted to the far North, and extreme East and West Coast areas. This is depicted perfectly by the video clip of Sarah Keith-Lucas, with the outlook for the next few Days: UK weather: Bitterly cold conditions on the way - BBC Weather It looks as if it will be very cold for our Region but predominantly dry but it will be fascinating to see if the upcoming Synoptic pattern behaves in a similar way, as it did back in December 1981. But if is just going to be a case of the "Wishbone Effect" for our Region, this old f--t of a hippy Coldie, will have to console himself with this piece of the Wishbone: Regards, Tom Q.

Morning all, Hope I find yourselves and your Families well, and enjoying the fascinating Synoptic output, at the moment. Thanks for that very detailed analysis of the current Synoptic pattern EAGLE EYE, even if it is way above my technical knowledge!! Being of a certain age, I find the current expected progression of the Synoptic pattern, very reminiscent to that of the 2nd Week, in Dec. 1981. After a couple of failed height rises over Greenland, pressure rose significantly over there, during the early part of the 2nd Week of Dec. 1981. See archive chart,below: On Tues. 8th Dec,, a small wave depression tracked S.E. from near Iceland and unleashed a bitterly cold Arctic flow, down across the U.K.: The transition to much colder air on that Tuesday Morning back in 1981 was much more dramatic, than Tomorrow's transition to a Northerly sourced flow, is likely to be. I was living in Inner London Camberwell at the time, with my first Wife. Heavy driving Rain turned to heavy Snow, during the early Morning Rush Hour and by the time it had stopped, around late Morning, a slushy deposit of around Three inches of Snow, had resulted. This pretty impressive for early December, in an Inner London Borough. The Rain > Snow transition, still remains the most impressive I've witnessed since I became interested in Meteorology, back in the late 1960's. The Arctic sourced Northerly ushered in a bitterly cold pre-Christmas spell, of Weather. I'll let Philip Eden [R.I.P.] take up the story of that very cold and Snowy, December spell of Weather. I was an avid listener of Philip Eden's, when he had a Weather slot, on London's L.B.C. Radio and ultimately on Radio 5 Live. Below, is a link to Philip Eden's account of the Snowiest December of 20th Century: Philip Eden: Snowiest of 20th century | weatheronline.co.uk Regards, Tom Q.

Morning all, Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. Much thanks for your reply, E.E. This isn't meant to sound condescending but your technical knowledge for someone still at School, is very impressive. If I had that sort of Meteorological understanding at such a tender age, I might well have attempted to gain a Career, in Meteorology. I must admit though that the overnight Modal runs, should be a source of joy to S.E. Members whose passion is cold and wintry Weather. I will now post up some of the 00z output. I'll begin with the METO at t120, followed by GFS and finally ECM: UKMO 00z 7th DEC. [00z] GFS 00z 7th DEC. [00z] ECM 00z 7th DEC. [00z] A very solid start to the Day from all Three Models, with those strong Greenland heights ridging South into the Atlantic. No West based neg. NAO there, and no "leaning" towards Canada. A little while after I began my association with Netweather, I began a Thread entitled - "The Demise of the Greenland High in Winter" It was a very crude look at the possible correlation between strong blocking over Greenland being responsible for delivering Cold and Wintry Weather, to the U.K. If memory serves, I went back through the Wetterzentrale archives to around 1950 and counted the number of Days during the Three Winter Months of Dec,, Jan. and Feb., that the Island of Greenland was covered with Green/Yellow 500 hPa ,heights. I called these Days, "Greenland Green Days". I combined this research with the C.E.T [Central England Temperature] record. My research proved there certainly was a correlation between strong blocking over Greenland, and a colder than average Winter Month C.E,T. There was one notable caveat to this research though, A few high scoring "Greenland Green Day" Winter Months, had an above average C.E,T. This occurred when these strong heights ridged towards Canada, allowing mild Atlantic air in through the back door. The dreaded West based neg. NAO, had hijacked Winter!! If memory serves, there were back-to-back Winter Months that recorded a high number of "Greenland Green Days" but with starkly contrasting C.E,T., records. Can't remember exactly which Months these were but more with luck than judgement, I've managed to find the "resurrected", "The Demise of the Greenland High in Winter" Thread. Those contrasting back-to-back Winter Months, were January 1969 [C.E.T. +5.5C, and the West based neg. NAO Month], and February 1969, with a C.E.T. of just +1.0C. One final point, what the overnight Model runs are showing for Wednesday next Week, is very reminiscent of the beginning of the very cold and wintry, December 1981. Below, is the 500 hPa archive chart for 06z on Tuesday 8th December, almost exactly 41 Years ago to the Day. ERA 06z Tues. 8th Dec. 1981 It happened to be my Day off work on that Tuesday and I was living in Camberwell in the Inner London Borough of Southwark. Heavy driving Rain during the early Morning Rush Hour soon transitioned to heavy driving Snow, as the bitterly cold Arctic air dug in. Below, is the 850 hPa archive chart depicting the -5C line about to sweep through our Region, in time for the early Morning Rush Hour: This event has always been my favourite and most impressive Rain > Snow scenario, during the time I've been interested in Meteorology. Just out of interest, below is the link to that"resurrected", "The Demise of the Greenland High in Winter" Thread. The Demise of the Greenland High in Winter | Historic Weather (netweather.tv) Regards, Tom Q.

Totally agree TSNWK. Don't want to be a Party Pooper but if the 12z ECM comes to fruition, we are in danger of developing a West based negative NAO, in 8 Days time: Coldies will be wanting the 12z GFS at the same time frame, to be correct: To maintain a colder, wintry flow, we will need those strong ""yellow" heights reaching down into the Central/North Atlantic, rather than tilting towards Canada. This will ensure the U.K. maintains an Arctic sourced flow, as against letting the Atlantic in through the back door, so to speak!! Still a long way off of course but something to bear in mind, to avoid disappointment , if you're a Cold/Snow lover. Regards, Tom Q.

Evening all, Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. Yes lk, wouldn't disagree with that. Not the most inspiring update, if you're a Cold/Snow lover fan, in our Region. After the initial weak Easterly flow, a Greenland High takes over from a Russian/Scandinavian High. Although t144 - t240, is a long way out in Model terms, I don't want to be too much of a Party Pooper but we are in danger of falling foul, to a West based negative NAO. This can be seen on the 12z ECM Model run: We need those strong Yellow heights tilting towards the Central Atlantic/U.K., rather than towards Canada. If the ECM run comes to fruition in its latter stages, the Atlantic will be let in, through the back door, so to speak!! If you're a you're a Cold/Snow lover fan, you would hope that the 12z GFS run, is on the money: GFS keeps the Atlantic blocked off and at bay, allowing our Region to maintain an Arctic sourced flow. All along way off of course but something to bear in mind if you're a Cold/Snow lover fan, to avoid disappointment. Regards, Tom Q.

Evening all, Lass is there such thing as a N.F.I. [November Fox Index]. Does the amount of times you hear a Fox screaming out in the middle of the Night at this time of the Year, correlate to the severity of the following Winter? If the answer is yes, then we're in for a bone chiller. Vicky Vixen our Resident Female Fox was at it again last Night, plying her "trade", on our Close. Her blood curdling screams broke the Night air, and woke up Yours Truly at around 4 A.M. But I'm very concerned about one of her "clients", who goes by the name of Dougall the Dog Fox. Either Dougall has got a very bad case of Furballs, or a chronic lung disease. I truly hope he hasn't contracted a nasty STD, from Vicky. Yet again last Night, Dougall could be heard wheezing. I was so concerned that I was about to run outside with my Ventolin Asthma, inhaler. But Dougall and Vicky disappeared into the cold Night air, before I could get my coat on. In an attempt to be serious for a couple of seconds, ECM are suggesting an ever cooling Easterly drift, As DANIEL and EAGLE EYE have been suggesting in the last few Days, it's not out of the question that some S.E. Members may see the first wintry ppn, of the Season. As EAGLE EYE mentioned, as the Scandinavian block recedes, a Greenland High is forecast to become dominant. We are then forecast to get a renewed surge of colder air, from the N.E. G.F.S., are in agreement with this transition to a more dominant block, over Greenland: Plus METO look to be going down the same route, at t144: Still a relatively long way off, in model terms but interesting viewing from a Coldies, perspective!! Now back to watching SUMMER SUN's favourite Football Team - Or would that be Uruguay, Gav? Uncanny, is there something you're not telling us Gav? Regards, Tom Q.

Morning all, Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. Much thanks for all your comments. below. That's very true TN9, Biggin Hill was certainly "up" for Yours Truly from an altitude of 130+ feet at Lee, to 500+ feet at Biggin Hill. I was talking more of a directional "down" there. The following Youtube clips are of my former home location of the Burnt Ash area, in the far North of my home Borough of Bromley. This video clip was shot on Burnt Ash Lane, during a January Snowfall. I used to live in nearby New Street Hill with my Parents, a few hundred yards to the right of where the camera is pointing but by the heavy Snowfalls of 2010/2012,I was living with my current Wife in Lee: These are very poignant videos for myself and my Wife, Colette. They feature our favourite local Supermarket, of Waitrose. Colette and myself first met in Waitrose, back on the August Bank Holiday of 1999, when I was out shopping with my younger Sister, who had been a School friend of Colette's, at Bromley's Ravensbourne School for Girls. Myself and my Sister had just reached the checkout, when a voice called out to my Sister. I turned to see this very attractive Lady, standing next to the French Bread. I duly noted that she had a fine pair of half baked Baguettes, emerging from her brown floral, Sun Dress. Colette had evidently just returned home from a sun drenched holiday, at Camber Sands. It was amazing what you could pick up in Waitrose back then, even a prospective Wife. But there was a major stumbling block to Colette and myself, becoming an "item". That being, I was still married at the time to my beautiful first Wife, and the Mother of our Children, Antony and Hayley. Sadly my first Wife and our Son, succumbed to the awful genetically inherited condition Huntingdon's Disease, in December 2008 and late February 2021, respectively. Unknown to me at the time, Colette lived a little way in the opposite direction, on the huge Downham Estate. For a time, this Estate was said to be the largest Social Housing project, in the whole of Europe. Colette always refers to me as "Posh Tom", because I lived in a new Council House on the relatively new Milk Street/New Street Hill Estate. But I certainly don't recognise myself as posh!! My Father was a half German Cockney, who was born in Poplar East London and my Mother, little more than a Southern Italian Peasant, born and raised a little wat to the North of Naples. Colette would often "bump" into my Mum, in the parade of Shops, where Waitrose was located. Sadly, "our" Waitrose, which had played such an important part in both our late Teens/early Adulthood, no longer exists and a few Years ago, became a Lidls. Evidently, Colette couldn't understand a word Mum said to her and just smiled politely, even though Mum may have been telling her some sad news!! Myself and my Sisters, referred to our Mum as the Italian Hilda Baker [really showing my age there!!] When Mum spoke English, her intonation and stress of syllables was very comical and even for myself and my Sisters was very difficult to understand, at times. During the late 1960's/early 1970's, when I was getting ready for School and latterly Work, I would retune our Radio from Mum's favourite Station [Radio 2], to Radio 4, to catch the Shipping Forecast, if Snow was in the offing. Just for a chance to hear those immortal words: HUMBER,THAMES, DOVER - Visibility, moderate to poor. Heavy and prolonged Snow Showers, at times One Morning, Mum came out with the following, classis statement: "Oh Toma, whya you wanna listena toa thata sh--a, wenna wea dona evena hava a Shipa 'era ina Bromleya!! Mum could never quite understand why her Son, had such a fascination for Snow and the Weather in general!! In other news, Peter the Pest Controller [real name Alfie], Yesterday confirmed that our squatting Mouse seems to have packed his bags and moved on to, pastures new. Colette actually spotted a Van outside our House the other Day, with "Rodent Removals 'R Us", written on the side. You will be pleased to hear that our recently adopted Cats Protection League Kitty Signorina Mia, has settled in very nicely. Any Mouse showing it's ugly head now, is likely to get a "Thawck", "Biff", "Bang", "Bite", "Scratch","Meeow", from our Smoky Grey Caped Crusader, Catgirl!! You'[ll be pleased to hear that I won't be doing a reprise of my "Sammy Snowman, Countdown to Christmas" Pantomime, this December. After some encouraging signs during the last couple of Autumns, the following Winters have produced "diddly squat", in the terms of the white stuff. Sammy felt that he was "jinxing" our chances of some decent Snowfalls, therefore has pulled the plug on any Pantomime, this Season!! Anyway, Yours Truly is very busy at the moment hosting a Fantasy World Cup Competition. But Sammy and Samantha - just wanted to pop in and say hi. They have spent the last few Years snuggled up in their marital bed, avoiding the uncomfortably warm Summers, and ridiculously mild Winters. And not surprisingly, very soon heard the patter of tiny, frozen feet. Sammy and Samantha would like to intoduce, Sarah and Saul Snow Children: To finish on a Weather related, partly serious point., Sammy notes there are still some encouraging signs of some high latitude blocking, as we head into December. Are we about to experience a "Front loaded Winter", I ask myself? Sammy Snowman isn't that confident but he and Samantha, have one of these - Just as well, with their young Snow Family!! Regards, Tom Q, Signorina Mia, Sammy/Samantha, Snowmen, Sarah/Saul Snow Children