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JCP

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Posts posted by JCP

    Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Pretty dreadful outlook in the medium term with high pressure becoming banked over Europe steering up mild southerlies for most away from the far south-east of the UK. Outlook rather poor for cold searchers this evening. -- Main event in short term, with a significant wind event for Thursday with risk of widespread gusts to 70mph with some extreme gusts to 90mph possible in parts.

    Have you ever seen the build up to a Scandinavian High before? This is what often happens synoptically where the winds are mild southerlies for a time until they move gradually east of south.At this time of year, once any winds come from the continent, we'll start to cool down.
    • Like 3

    Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold - 10th Dec

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    We can only comment on what is in front of us at this moment in time though Jordan. A persistent and stalled block to the east as is currently shown has as much potential to lock us in to a wet and windy spell of weather as a Bartlett high has as much potential to lock in and bring incessant SW'ly winds and a moist warm flow. As Nick and other people have pointed out, the chances of that high out east exerting more influence by extending back west looks very slim; so the best case scenario we're effectively left with is for it to clear off so we can at least have the potential for Greenland height rises.

    Likewise, wishing for the high to 'clear off' won't make a blind bit of difference.

    Also, we hear the wish for a 'reset' every winter and all we end up with is 3 weeks of westerlies.

    Model Output Discussion 5/12/2012 18Z onwards - the one after THAT ECM

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    All this moaning today yet we are still very much facing a cold to very cold setup get a grip people.

    If people want to moan or rant about anything weather related it can be done here -

    If you wish to discuss any potential snowfall this can be done here - http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    I am once again encouraged by the output today which get's us over that first hurdle of the sw tracking and sunk se by 90 hours which is now in the reliable and has shown no signs of taking a different route over the past few days so i can now 99% say that that is nailed on and penned in.

    Beyond this is were we can potentially have a very cold setup & possibly snowy. All these details will not be confirmed until at least 48 hours time which is why there is no point in hanging on each run beyond reliability as it will change as the models firms up on what type of easterly we will see & as for experienced members stating ' Dry Run ' ect i think ' Come on how long have you been watching the models for? As you know as well as i that snowfall is unpredictable especially in a easterly flow as connectivity can often come into play'.

    For those newbies out there and for those who are seeking answers regarding snowfall there is a learning facility available on n-w which is a brilliant learning tool to use & to gain knowledge.

    But for the general rule of thumb you cannot tell no more than 24 hours out in this potential spell where we may well see connectivity from the east coasts then you cannot tell until it happens.

    Hope that helps.

    L-S

    Do you have to use that font? I find it really hard to read, so just end up skipping the whole post, which is a bit of a shame.

    Model Output Discussion 5/12/2012 18Z onwards - the one after THAT ECM

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    A word of caution among the excitement, the UKMO (which let's face it, NEVER wants to give us a nice chart at + 144) doesn't look all that good to me.... it could be a lot worse and It does have potential, but if that Low Pressure system retrogrades NW instead of W , we would end up being back in cold zonality before an Easterly ever gets the chance to even get going

    UKMO + 144

    gem-0-144.png?00

    That's the GEM though ?

    Model Output Discussion - 18z - 25th Nov onward

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by JCP

    MattHugo on twitter highlighting that he expects the 96 and 120 to be modified from the UKMO after discussion- probably negatively

    I bet he's wrong. Why would they modify it, when they didn't last night?

    If anything the UKMO has more support for the 96/120 time period than it did last night.

    I don't understand the obsession with his tweets tbh.

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