D KARLSON
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Posts posted by D KARLSON
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Glad too hear your ok nick ,but while your on the subject of having no power ,
You dont have to have a storm to have power cuts just sign up with N,POWER they had me waiting for months to put the power on due to a previous tenants bill ,and you know what in the end i had to move out
No power for 3 months thanks N POWER !!!!!!!!
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Theres no way you can be that accurate rather weird to say the least, !!!!!
WITCHCRAFT :lol: :lol:
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i think a number of people have become quite despondent of late with the recent outputs ,but this is still a departure from recent winters ,with snow still in the offing for some areas,
If i was pushed into the timing of a pattern change and this is just a hunch i would plump for the end of the month ,this has on a number of occasions ushered in a cold northerly and snow and its no surprise when you consider its probably the coldest point of our winters.
Patience is the key and there is still plenty of winter left ,what we have not seen this winter is anything remotely mild and this bodes well for February with another signal for stratospheric warming this maybe our next bite of the cherry :lol:
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It has been an amazing spell of weather and once again the BEEB will have to revise temps down again for today and having looked at the temps across the country currently , they will have to revise some of the night time minima for a time in the south east before the mild weather arrives .
Minus 2 was forecast for east anglia tonight i would expect some minus 5 temps before the mild pushes in great stuff :lol:
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For those with snow , get your thermometers ready for tonight this could be the coldest night for a good few years ,favoured places reaching minus 10 especially central southern england and tuesday night is our next small weather event with a front pushing down eastern england that could bring a few centimeters , this feature progged has more potential this could deliver a couple of inches to high ground in the east
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Getting heavy rain showers here in North Yorkshire , as i suspected this precipitation could not all be light and its chucking it down outside , so yes further inland and south of here some places can expect some heavy bursts of snow , which would give a covering .
Some places will see some decent accumulations from this , lets see out it pans out ,maybe parts of western england might see a few flurries
radar looks like it -
partly cloudy with glimpses of the sun and another 'dry' air frost, by that I mean once more no sign of frost nor any ice on either of the two ponds. This has been a feature of this cold spell with only 2 mornings showing either frost or ice;
min last night was -0.8C with a dewpoint of -4.1C
The same here in North Yorkshire frosty conditions without frost rather unusual weather to say the least, after studying the thermometer night after night watching temps dip below freezing without a bit of frost
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Looking quite possible we finally have a month that is more then 1.5C below the average, does look increasingly likely that the temps will be the same or below that of December 2001 and we have a sub 10C year in the bag!
Case and point that this year has been a turning point in our waether
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I think it has been a cold month generally without anything particularly exciting at any stage (other than in the FI models).
To get a below average winter month is, in itself, quite unusual these days though and if we do end up a full degree or more below the 71-2000 mean then I think that must count as a real result and is probably about as low as we can get and the best we can expect.
Would much rather have this dry, frosty weather than the usual warm so'westers.
Yes a result for a change , certainly progress in the right direction !!!!
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not strictly CET but Doncaster data
The first 15 days here show a mean of 3.0C against the long term, using RAF Finningley 1942-1995 and Cantley 1997-now, of 4.6C.
That means the next 16 days need to mean 6.2C which is almost the average for November data in the long term.
To me, given what the models are suggesting along with my view of lrf developments, I would say it is very unlikely that December in this area will be anything but below average, it may edge into the rather cold category.
I cannot remember the last month, if that happened, that fitted into that category.
Indeed i cant even be bothered to look to see the last month that came in lets say 2 degrees below par , but this month has a fair chance a coming in sub 2 degrees ,if that happens that is most definitely a sign of pattern change and colder synoptics and falls inline nicely with our falling cet over previous months
positve signs for cold lovers -
Really steve come on take some lithium
yes recent winters have trended towards mild and we only get breif hints at the synoptics of the past but that doesnt mean to say it cant change and i think some of your reaction is a kneejerk reaction to us returning to our mild souwesterlies after a prolonged period of cold.To take the official line the met office has gone for a cold start followed by average january and february and their thesis for this is a prolonged La nina which has a tendency to give these conditions ,but obviously they threw in their caveat that chaos theory of global forecasting meant that they were not 100% sure , maening jan and feb could be as cold too.
From my point of veiw it will be very interesting to see if their La nina forecast pans out as we head into jan , its certainly spot on so far with the cold start and the jet diving southwards,obviously we will have to endure this mild bout of weather before we see anything interesting again but thats the weather it cant be all treats and the cold inversion forecast is nice from my point of veiw
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just had a look at the radar and there seems to be a convection line of heavy showers forming along the south coast, i can see the showers moving in along the coast here in dorset and they look to be pretty beefy if these showers continue their northwards progress they could well develop and produce a line of heavy thunderstorms as they move inland.
This could well bring more torrential rain to places like oxford and reading that dont need it!!!!
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Thanks for the advice yesterday ian drove all the way to cirencester just on the edge of the cotswolds booked in to a local in and a few bevvies and went to bed .
Next morning awoke to about 3 to 4 inches of snow and the kids loved it cheers !!!!!
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hi TWS if your still online could you tell me where the best place to drive to for snow if im travelling from dorset i was thinking reading or swindon and stop overnight as it wont snow here in poole
Preferably somewhere within 80 miles radius your suggestuions please !!!!!!!! cheers
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At this time of year these cold scenarios have a much better chance of coming off as cold air has had a chance to build over europe russia and scandinavia, so in escence what we are seeing is the models trying too handle how the cold pool over scandinavia will be shifted or whether high pressure builds over this area and pushes back the atlantic systems.
One thing to be pleased about is the timing, if we are to get a prolonged cold spell its coming at the right time so given the right synoptics many places could see snow and freezing temperatures, as opposed to last year when we had perfect synoptics that came towards the start of march, lets hope we have something severe this time
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ECM - this excellent chart at 120hrs. Something like this is what we need at any rate.
Its a cracker !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11 :lol:
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:lol: -->
QUOTE(Paul B @ 3 Feb 2007, 11:16 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>The ensemble mean shows a deep low just to the west of the UK by T+168, so don't expect anything too exciting on the 850hPa ensembles when they appear later. With huge differences in the models at T+72 we could wake up to almost anything from the charts in the morning. I would tend to favour the cold as if it was a straight forward zonal situation, the models would not be all over the place like they currently are.i have to agree there the confusion in the models is a plus !!!!!!!! :lol:
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Its all to play for at the moment even albert einstein could not predict the outcome all we can say for certain is were in for a colder spell of weather,whether it turns into something more severe is the big question and i think even countryfile will be hedging its bets tomorrow !!!!!
i think were in a 50 50 situation with nothing certain and as teits pointed out weve never had an 80 s style weather event on net weather since it begun, hence the we never see it coming scenario!!!! but enough ramping were still in with a chance here of something severe and the charts tomorrow will hopefuully clarify this
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good post there tws, as you say easterlies can vary so much form not being cold enough or haing too little moisture, i think 1987 january was one of the best with snow and frost for about 6 days, and what amazes me is when theres only the odd flurry at sea level a drive inland into the east of the pennines and youve got about five inches of powdery snow
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Just had a quick look through synoptic charts for the 30s and something stands out ,because alhough this decade was regarded as mild we still had spells of very cold weather with easterlies on occasions ,and although the winters were mild here the siberian high was quite dominant over europe at times, something that seems completely lacking in recent times.
It seems as though were in the middle of a longer term pattern change the siberian high almost non existent, with azores and bartlett highs the main players, we simply cant expect winter to make its mark without the right synoptics , but you never know when the pattern will flip thats the key !!!!!!
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The extent of the record European warmth throughout November is taking a terrible toll on the sea ice formation in the continents Arctic Rim sectors. The Barent and Kara Sea are actually recording less ice now than at the end of October. A real worry now. Changes will have to take foot by Mid-December.
C
Must agree i noticed the sudden decline in ice in these areas too but as you said before things can change quickly up there given the right synoptics, i have a feeling the current synoptics will blow themselves out and hopefully give way to something much colder, well heres hoping :blush: !!!!!!!
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Looking at the cryosphere, hudson bay still has not frozen over does anyone know what time it froze last year, those polar bears must be suffering
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Evening,
15C above the Mid November middle temp in Svalbard and Northern Greenland. Quite a turn round in 7 days.
I do like the shape of the Siberian High (elongated pool of cold air stretching for thousands of miles ) this is becoming a notiable feature. One to watch in the outlook.
C
Good point carinthian this feature now seems to be established and ive noticed in previous winters that these featureas become players in our weather later on in the winter.
Certainly a good sign for the coming winter and something that must be kept a close eye on !!!!!!!
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Must agree there steve the weather is storing up some cold snaps despite the current very mild weather i suppose its when the snap will occur,probably november will be the trigger and dont forget this year was the first time for many months that we actually registered some below average months so it seems some changes are afoot lets hope!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
radar looks like it
positve signs for cold lovers 
Snow Watch London, Se England & E Anglia
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
There are some quite intense echoes in a narrow band moving north east from the channel through towards Kent at the moment ,i would expect some places in the far south east could well get 5 cms out of this before it finally clears tonight places like broadstairs and seveboaks but decending to lower ground as we move through the evening