JohnAcc
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Posts posted by JohnAcc
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7.0 please
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I'll go for 4.3 please.
Rgds, John
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Every chance of a below average month now. Quite remarkable the current reversals in temps.
Rgds, John
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John,
Any chance of an update? I'd love to see how we've done ofer the last few days.
No probs,
So far the GFS looks spot on the money to me
Rgds, John
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After looking at the current model output I agree that my lower range was probably too low. I think on reflection 10.5 - 10.75 is where my range would be and I would be favouring a 10.6 return. Cooler than last year (Joke)
Current model output suggests that a low 5's finish for December will us with a 10.49 annual CET. The 10th warmest on record. However given the first 4 months of the year it is a marked turnaround.
Rgds, John
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Another big 0.5c drop yesterday with further drops to come over the next few days. I'll keep this graph updated to see how close the GFS has called this one.
Rgds, John
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The period 12th-20th looks very ncold indeed averaging +1.1c according to the GFS run.
By the 20th the CET should be around 4.7c, 0.4c below average. If it remains cold thereafter it may well yet get down into the 3s.
That is very unlikely of course, high 5s is still favorable. Either way, it won't be a record warm month.
I'm not sure high 5's is favourable at the moment. As indicated earlier if the models are picking up correctly on the westward movement of the high then low 5's looks to be favourite. I agree that on current model outputs around 4.7 by the 20th looks about right.
Rgds, John
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Could be a fall of 0.4 or even 0.5 after today.
Hi Joneseye,
Yes Kevin called this one earlier yesterday morning. A 0.4 drop yesterday and from what I can see a further 0.4 drop per day for the next 4 or 5 days (depending on cloud cover). I fear my 6.1 and your 5.9 may, just may be a tad on the "high" side.
Rgds, John
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The ECM and GFS are both now picking up on the trend for the high to retrogress westwards over the UK in the later time frames which will result in us having continued seasonal ground temps for a while longer.
I have updated yesterdays projections with this mornings 06z run and it will be interesting to see where we end up and how close the GFS is. I seem to recall SF saying last month that the GFS pretty much nailed temps from quite an early period.
This mornings output would return us a CET bang on the 71-00 average
Rgds, John
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This is how I see Dec finishing up from here. I would estimate a 5.4 / 5.5 ish finish which will be slightly above the 10 year mean. It's very early doors yet and obviously subject to change depending on how long the block holds and whether we end up in a southerly flow after / (If) the high sinks.
Rgds, John
PS Does anyone know where I can find the running mean through the month for the 61-90 and 71-00 averages?
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No, your numbers are good for Hadley provisionally: the variation is that I tedn to use Philip's numbers until such time as Hadley finally verifies - which can be well into the following calendar year.
After looking at the current model output I agree that my lower range was probably too low. I think on reflection 10.5 - 10.75 is where my range would be and I would be favouring a 10.6 return. Cooler than last year
(Joke) -
Decembers warmer than Novembers - any stats Mr D?
There have been 41 instances in the CET series where Dec has returned a higher figure than Nov. The last 10 being:-
1993 (Cold Nov @ 4.6)
1988 (Mild Dec @ 7.5)
1985 (Cold Nov @ 4.1 plus mild Dec @ 6.3)
1974 (Mild Dec @ 8.1)
1971
1965
1942
1934
1923
1921
Rgds, John
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John,
6.5 would give us 10.68. I can't see us coming remotely close to 10.35: that would require 2.6C, giving the coldest absolute month since Jan 97, and the coldest by anomaly since Dec 1995. With nothing remotely cold in the offing that is simply beyond plausible. It would be bold if we were driving blind - we're not. Only my view, but I'm reasonably happy with my projection of bounds.
I used the following figures:-
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
7.00 5.80 7.20 11.20 11.90 15.10 15.20 15.40 13.80 10.90 7.20
which gives me 120.7 cumulative degrees. If i add on 7.4 it takes me to 128.1 cumulative degrees which, divided by 12 gives me 10.68. Have I made a school boy error somewhere?
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10.68 is the current projection. I'd put the range now at about 10.55 - 10.73. Anything between 2-7 on the all time list.
If 10.68 is the current projection are you saying that your predicting a Dec CET of 7.4c (warmest since 74?) if so, a very bold statement this early in the month. For me the range is still anything from 10.35 - 10.75. However as we stand, I would lean towards the higher end of that scale.
Rgds, John
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Updated List..................
acbrixton 06.5c, 180
Anti-Mild 06.0c, 080
AtlanticFlamethrower 05.9c, 140
Barry 03.1c, 019
beng 04.0c, 155
Blast From The Past 06.2c, 170
BristolBlizzard 07.3c, 091
Cal 05.8c, 105
cheeky monkey 06.2c, 123
chionomaniac 04.7c, 066
Craig Evans 08.8c, 004
Cymru 05.8c, 056
damianslaw 05.2c, 109
David Snow 06.1c, 057
derby4life 05.3c, 077
Devon-Nelly 05.2c, 122
don 06.0c, 103
DR Hosking 06.2c, 159
Duncan McAlister 06.5c, 102
eddie 06.4c, 095
fishdude 04.0c, 040
Gavin P 05.1c, 130
Glacier Point 06.0c, 162
Great Plum 06.0c, 160
happy days 07.1c, 156
HighPressure 06.3c, 173
HomerJ 05.2c, 107
IRON-BRU 06.7c, 169
JACKONE 06.1c, 177
James M 05.5c, 100
Johnacc 06.1c, 163
Joneseye 05.9c, 166
Jonnie G 05.7c, 145
Kentish Man 06.6c, 119
kold weather 06.1c, 141
La Nina 04.4c, 111
LadyPakal 05.2c, 161
mam500 03.7c, 049
Mammatus 06.4c, 181
mark bayley 05.8c, 168
mark forster 06.3c, 054
MarkH 06.2c, 176
Matty M 06.4c, 058
Megamoonflake 5.8c, 136
memories of 63 05.0c, 034
Mike W 06.0c, 074
mk13 06.1c, 126
Mr Data 05.9c, 084
Mr Maunder 05.7c, 158
mufc 04.2c, 027
ned 06.1c, 157
neforum2 05.4c, 045
Nick F 06.0c, 139
noggin 04.9c, 117
Norrance 05.2c, 142
Optimus Prime 04.8c, 047
Osbourne One-Nil 05.7c, 060
osmposm 05.2c, 164
Paul 06.1c, 172
Paul B 06.2c, 042
Paul Sherman 06.4c, 135
paul tall 01.1c, 061
PersianPaladin 06.5c, 013
phil n.warks 05.7c, 175
Plate 05.1c, 026
Polar Continental 03.5c, 167
Polar Gael 05.5c, 190 (1 Day Late)
Potent Gust 04.8c, 025
pottyprof 05.8c, 083
Rain Rain Rain 06.4c, 178
Redshift 06.1c, 153
reef 06.6c, 154
richarddx7 04.1c, 031
Rojer J Smith 05.5c, 071
Rollo 05.9c, 079
shuggee 05.8c, 127
skwales100 04.5c, 014
slipknotsam 06.0c, 120
Snooz 04.8c, 075
snowmaiden 05.1c, 065
Snow-Man2006 05.0c, 108
snowsure 04.8c, 106
Snowyowl9 04.9c, 076
Somerset Squall 06.1c, 082
Stargazer 06.2c, 115
Steady Easterly 05.7c, 124
Stephen Prudence 07.0c, 110
Steve Murr 06.3c, 137
SteveB 05.2c, 055
stormchaser 05.3c, 193 (1 day late)
Stormforce10 02.1c, 009
Stratos Ferric 06.5c, 152
Stu London 05.5c, 150
suffolkboy 05.1c, 068
summer blizzard 05.2c, 131
Summer of 95 04.9c, 125
sundog 05.2c, 064
swfc 06.5c, 067
Terminal Moraine 05.3c, 171
tesaro 06.3c, 104
The Enforcer 03.8c, 007
The Pit 05.9c, 097
Timbo 03.8c, 069
TimmyH 07.0c, 174
TomSE20 05.9c, 116
ukmoose 07.0c, 143
WBSH 06.0c, 144
windswept 06.3c, 059
xerxes 05.2c, 072
Rgds, John
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Here is a graph of the December CET plotted against the Dec AO indicies. Current projections for the Dec AO are to be in the region of -0.6 to -0.8 which would point to a CET of around 4.9c. A very bold call from where we are today!
Rgds, John
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John, thanks for that. It wasn't member number but post number that was needed, so that we know the sequence of entry and can split tied guesses. I'm sure someone will sort out the detail.
Here is the list with post number added.
acbrixton 06.5c, 180
Anti-Mild 06.0c, 080
AtlanticFlamethrower 05.9c, 140
Barry 03.1c, 019
beng 04.0c, 155
Blast From The Past 06.2c, 170
BristolBlizzard 07.3c, 091
Cal 05.8c, 105
cheeky monkey 06.2c, 123
chionomaniac 04.7c, 066
Craig Evans 08.8c, 004
Cymru 05.8c, 056
damianslaw 05.2c, 109
David Snow 06.1c, 057
derby4life 05.3c, 077
Devon-Nelly 05.2c, 122
don 06.0c, 103
DR Hosking 06.2c, 159
Duncan McAlister 06.5c, 102
eddie 06.4c, 095
fishdude 04.0c, 040
Gavin P 05.1c, 130
Glacier Point 06.0c, 162
Great Plum 06.0c, 160
happy days 07.1c, 156
HighPressure 06.3c, 173
HomerJ 05.2c, 107
IRON-BRU 06.7c, 169
JACKONE 06.1c, 177
James M 05.5c, 100
Johnacc 06.1c, 163
Joneseye 05.9c, 166
Jonnie G 05.7c, 145
Kentish Man 06.6c, 119
kold weather 06.1c, 141
La Nina 04.4c, 111
LadyPakal 05.2c, 161
mam500 03.7c, 049
Mammatus 06.4c, 181
mark bayley 05.8c, 168
mark forster 06.3c, 054
MarkH 06.2c, 176
Matty M 06.4c, 058
Megamoonflake 5.8c, 136
memories of 63 05.0c, 034
Mike W 06.0c, 074
mk13 06.1c, 126
Mr Data 05.9c, 084
Mr Maunder 05.7c, 158
mufc 04.2c, 027
ned 06.1c, 157
neforum2 05.4c, 045
Nick F 06.0c, 139
noggin 04.9c, 117
Norrance 05.2c, 142
Optimus Prime 04.8c, 047
Osbourne One-Nil 05.7c, 060
osmposm 05.2c, 164
Paul 06.1c, 172
Paul B 06.2c, 042
Paul Sherman 06.4c, 135
paul tall 01.1c, 061
PersianPaladin 06.5c, 013
phil n.warks 05.7c, 175
Plate 05.1c, 026
Polar Continental 03.5c, 167
Polar Gael 05.5c, 190 (1 Day Late)
Potent Gust 04.8c, 025
pottyprof 05.8c, 083
Rain Rain Rain 06.4c, 178
Redshift 06.1c, 153
reef 06.6c, 154
richarddx7 04.1c, 031
Rojer J Smith 05.5c, 071
Rollo 05.9c, 079
shuggee 05.8c, 127
skwales100 04.5c, 014
slipknotsam 06.0c, 120
Snooz 04.8c, 075
snowmaiden 05.1c, 065
Snow-Man2006 05.0c, 108
snowsure 04.8c, 106
Snowyowl9 04.9c, 076
Somerset Squall 06.1c, 082
Stargazer 06.2c, 115
Steady Easterly 05.7c, 124
Stephen Prudence 07.0c, 110
Steve Murr 06.3c, 137
SteveB 05.2c, 055
Stormforce10 02.1c, 009
Stratos Ferric 06.5c, 152
Stu London 05.5c, 150
suffolkboy 05.1c, 068
summer blizzard 05.2c, 131
Summer of 95 04.9c, 125
sundog 05.2c, 064
swfc 06.5c, 067
Terminal Moraine 05.3c, 171
tesaro 06.3c, 104
The Enforcer 03.8c, 007
The Pit 05.9c, 097
Timbo 03.8c, 069
TimmyH 07.0c, 174
TomSE20 05.9c, 116
ukmoose 07.0c, 143
WBSH 06.0c, 144
windswept 06.3c, 059
xerxes 05.2c, 072
Rgds, John
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I've listed the entrants so far in the format required but I wasn't sure how to find out the members number (anyone any ideas?) Where has WIB gone? perhaps he couldn't bear post a mild CET guess
The average NW guess is 5.6c and the median of the data is 5.8c.
acbrixton 06.5c,
Anti-Mild 06.0c,
AtlanticFlamethrower 05.9c,
Barry 03.1c,
beng 04.0c,
Blast From The Past 06.2c,
BristolBlizzard 07.3c,
Cal 05.8c,
cheeky monkey 06.2c,
chionomaniac 04.7c,
Craig Evans 08.8c,
Cymru 05.8c,
damianslaw 05.2c,
David Snow 06.1c,
derby4life 05.3c,
Devon-Nelly 05.2c,
don 06.0c,
DR Hosking 06.2c,
Duncan McAlister 06.5c,
eddie 06.4c,
fishdude 04.0c,
Gavin P 05.1c,
Glacier Point 06.0c,
Great Plum 06.0c,
happy days 07.1c,
HighPressure 06.3c,
HomerJ 05.2c,
IRON-BRU 06.7c,
JACKONE 06.1c,
James M 05.5c,
Johnacc 06.1c,
Joneseye 05.9c,
Jonnie G 05.7c,
Kentish Man 06.6c,
kold weather 06.1c,
La Nina 04.4c,
LadyPakal 05.2c, 161
mam500 03.7c,
Mammatus 06.4c,
mark bayley 05.8c,
mark forster 06.3c,
MarkH 06.2c,
Matty M 06.4c,
Megamoonflake 5.8c,
memories of 63 05.0c,
Mike W 06.0c,
mk13 06.1c,
Mr Data 05.9c,
Mr Maunder 05.7c,
mufc 04.2c,
ned 06.1c,
neforum2 05.4c,
Nick F 06.0c,
noggin 04.9c,
Norrance 05.2c,
Optimus Prime 04.8c,
Osbourne One-Nil 05.7c,
osmposm 05.2c, 164
Paul 06.1c,
Paul B 06.2c,
Paul Sherman 06.4c,
paul tall 01.1c,
PersianPaladin 06.5c,
phil n.warks 05.7c,
Plate 05.1c,
Polar Continental 03.5c,
Potent Gust 04.8c,
pottyprof 05.8c,
Rain Rain Rain 06.4c,
Redshift 06.1c, 153
reef 06.6c,
richarddx7 04.1c,
Rojer J Smith 05.5c,
Rollo 05.9c,
shuggee 05.8c,
skwales100 04.5c,
slipknotsam 06.0c,
Snooz 04.8c,
snowmaiden 05.1c,
Snow-Man2006 05.0c,
snowsure 04.8c,
Snowyowl9 04.9c,
Somerset Squall 06.1c,
Stargazer 06.2c,
Steady Easterly 05.7c,
Stephen Prudence 07.0c,
Steve Murr 06.3c,
SteveB 05.2c,
Stormforce10 02.1c,
Stratos Ferric 06.5c,
Stu London 05.5c,
suffolkboy 05.1c,
summer blizzard 05.2c,
Summer of 95 04.9c,
sundog 05.2c,
swfc 06.5c,
Terminal Moraine 05.3c,
tesaro 06.3c,
The Enforcer 03.8c,
The Pit 05.9c,
Timbo 03.8c,
TimmyH 07.0c,
TomSE20 05.9c,
ukmoose 07.0c,
WBSH 06.0c,
windswept 06.3c,
xerxes 05.2c,
Rgds, John
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I'm going to revise my estimate northwards I'm afraid. I'd like to increase it to 6.1 please
Rgds, John
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5.8ºC
I like 1] and 2] - but have a feeling 3] is over-complicating it.
Yeah I agree 1 & 2 sound good but not keen on 3.
My December punt is 5.6
Rgds, John
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10.7 for me please
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14.7 for me please.
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17.0C for me please
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15.2 for me please
(Joke)
(Joke)
Snow Watch: Midlands & C Southern England
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Dewpoint 1.0 In Wolverhampton,We really need to see this drop to around 0 if we are going to see any decent snowfall