Gray-Wolf

It looks like a 'tale of two storms' at the mo'., the plotted centre of the low is to the east of the 'blob' I've been watching (which has drifted south, as it would circulating around the low centre) so I think I've only just recognised what I've been looking at!!! (the sooner she forms an eye the better!!!) Yes Mondy, I'm afraid that Cuba may be on its itinerary and the SW coastal region will take the full brunt of any 'surge' that has formed by this time. I just think that the land thereabouts will already be saturated and will start to flow under the rain rate that the central bands will throw at it (solufluction?) B)

And closer and closer to avoiding land (Cuba can do without it!! the recent rains to the west must have been enough for them) by slipping through the Yukatan Channel and on into the Gulf. I am still concerned about something BIG in the gulf pushing in a BIG tidal surge onto the US coastline (again) never mind more interuption to the refineries/platforms up there the poor folk can do without it too!!! (at least the moon is waning so the tides won't be running as high as they could)

I see 'floater one' is now over the system and the infrared shows pretty mega activity in the centre now. It looks like Wilma will be named in the next advisory if she keeps up this level of unchecked development. If TD24 keeps as slow as she is whilst putting on a bit of weight then come the turn north she may well pass through the Yukatan straights into the Gulf just as Rita passed through the florida Straights. With Rita the 'restriction' of the straights seemed somehow to allow her to intensify very rapidly as she exited them (Cat 1 to 4 in under 24hrs?). My other 'pet' doesn't seem as happy a little bunny today and needs something soon to 'pep her up' or shell just become part of (soon to be) Wilma. B)

Hi Mondy, I just expect the HP over the Northern Gulf to present more of a problem to it and not give it chance of a turn until late mon/tues am when the HP is forcast to pull back. This would leave td24 trickling along (west) the bottom of the HP and only making it's 'turn' when the high allowed it to. :lol:

That doesn't look good for Florida at all! I'd not expected such a tight turn north (more Texas than Florida) Anyhow we'll see, still has to form and we're talking landfall. I'll now fetch the horses back in front of the cart :lol:

NOAA think maybe Hurricane watch later tonight eh??? they seem to think this is going to rapidly form! their 5 day track doesn't look promising either ( my worst fears confirmed!), will it reach some of your predicted Cat 4/5 before it does the oil platforms / Gulf coast?? The other 'swirl' (201n,61w) seems to be making some headway at overcoming the upper level shear and pulling up convection from lower levels (I'm still watching it!) around 15n,60w. The bottom may catch up with the top yet!! :lol:

Yeah ,I've been watching that too! I think it is a surface low and it doesn't seem to have much in the way of central convection (yet) but does seem to be dragging some in on it's SE flank. I tend to think that it will have some influence on the forming storm (even if it is only it's own destruction!) I for one will be keeping an eye on it!

Starting to look like it could be a physically large storm with the amount of convection now starting to circulate around it (another 300+miles across by the time it's formed?)I'd be surprised now if recon didn't come back with more than a T.D.!!

My fear for her (should she form) is that she'll pass through the Yukatan staights and then 'curve' northwards towards Texas/Mississippi. The direction would drive a storm surge directly at the US Gulf coast which could do without any more drama this year!!! EDIT The circulation I mentioned earlier looks to be heading for Peurto Rico and is starting to draw in cloud on its SE flank.

So whats with the vigorous circulation at 19n,59w? it doesn't seem to have any associated convection ....yet....but it is spinning away to the WNW. Could this pick up more convection as it enters the Gulf proper? The NOAA reports on the Jamaican system seem to be a little dated as you can see structures now on the visible sat. (outer banding?) :blink:

Turned out nice again?

Bloody typical, the one day I'm forced from my P.C. (bloody women)and the bit I've been watching finaly starts to go off!!! At least we could have an interesting weekend ahead, it's finally just sittin' there building and not getting draged all over the place. From the previous posts it seems that it's all stable enough around there for it to grow unfettered. How much energy is still out there so late on? I do hope we'll get to find out (and it not have a humanitarian price tag on it if it does!)

How long has the Carribean been throwing up that plume now???? It was already starting to feed moisture north when Rita formed (I posted about it pushing moisture up the Eastern side of her then) and hasn't ceased since. The rains we have had recently (and more to come later) are all part of this 'train of cloud' out of the Carribean. Is this a seasonal norm or is this a rarer phenomenom? All the energy that could be forming Hurricanes seems to be going into maintaining this plume and shifting a lot of heat/moisture North (up the eastern seaboard and across South Greenland and on to Europe) effectively keeping things to dynamic to allow the formation of Hurricanes (upper level shear?). Anyone any views?

Hi Guys (an'Gals), I think we still need to watch 25n,65w as that 'northerly' movement of upper and lower level air seems to be 'faltering' allowing a certain amount of calm for the big storms that seem to be forming there(25n,65w) to go up. Lter today (late afternoon there) I will be watching with interest!!

Still dry here but a balmy 18c at 7:50pm!!! not very autumnal is it? I can't think of many suumers evenings as warm as this (cloud keeping in the heat I guess) pressure 1007mb Humidity 79% Temp 18c !!!!

We see a similar world out there, the great new, untested,post socialist world of the naughties.

When folk talk of the past in a 'we did it then, why can't we do it now' kinda way seem to be overlooking the BIG changes in society over the last 15yrs. Do you live in a community or just amongst people? Old folk are ever more vulnerable in this rapidly evolving insular society. If some novice plonk has blocked the highway because of their inexperienced 'winter driving' effort and you cannot travel the 30mls to check on your 'oldies' will someone else?? Once upon a long time ago (30 yrs +) we used to 'police' ourselves in our local communities, now we sit back and let 'those paid to do it' get on with it. It's the same with social care it would seem "it's the job of the social services" someone else will do it mentality, well , will they? It doesn't take long for you to go hypothermic and have yer kidneys pack in (check 'cause of death ' in the elderly over winter and you'll not find 'froze to death' in there but I bet you'll find plenty of secondary hypothermia symptoms will be there) even in mild winters. If we get an 'early 80's winter with the odd week below zero, daylight hours, people will die.

Hi Smich, If only a little more would take place lower down!!! there are some clouds 'popping up' but you'd need a lot more convection than that to get the ball rolling (I think) I'm still watching the mass going up to the East/South of Peurto Rico in the hope that it'll take off soon.

Yeah, and a large area of convection just in front of that already spilling into the med (do I see circulation banding in it?) over southern Spain and Algeria. I take it the Texan 'burst' is the tale end of the 'Colorado winter storm' event, though it looks to have 'torn free' of the rest of the frontal band now. Ah Mr Tattum, you jolly japer you!!!! has anyone got a link to the NAOO sat. over the med??

Yeah, I'd go with Betty (but I'd be thinking of Wilma all along!)

Thanks for those SnowBear! What about that convection appearing off the Texas coast (28n,96w) if it trawls out into the gulf?

I should never have 'formed' in the first place......still we live and learn now don't we??? No, I think it's destined to be, or already is, absorbed by the front sweeping East (but whats left will run up the front like a yoyo on a string!)

I think they've had as many in a season before (1933?) but they didn't name them back then so it'd be the 'first' time we've run out of names and had to go all Greek

Do you think we need a new thread or will 'future developments' do? Is there something forming East of, and below Porto Rico? I know that the messy 22L and it's phantom 'upper level low' were ruling the roost there for a few days but things look a lot more settled now with nothing (upper or lower) dragging things about. Also, just off Yucatan (east) there seems to be a lot of convection at the mo, anything doing there?

The rest of the cloud seems the be 'channeling' into them so why not?. I wonder how far the 'front' progresses into the med. before grinding to a halt though? Yes a restructure in the med,that'd be good to see!!