[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Not much of a split from the FV3 12z

[Winter 2018/19]

Extremes when they belong please. I wouldn't mind a heat record in Winter for a day or two. But extreme cold for the winter half and extreme heat for the rest is ideal for me.

[Winter 2018/19]

January is looking good for cold/snow, but February is likely to be even better, supposedly. I predict a sub 3.5c CET overall. I hope some of my earlier predictions turn out, very, very wrong, and that this one is nowhere near as good as reality.

I think January will produce good long-lying snowfall and low minima (widespread low-level below -10c), February low daily maximums (below -2c) and March similar to early this year (up to the end of astronomical winter). And, probably way to far ahead, but to me, it looks like Summer 2019 will be as warm if not warmer than that of 2018, due to the major stratospheric warming mostly, but I guess that counts as off topic here .

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Looks like the vortex is trying to reform when shown after this:

Good split overall though, good consistency with the 12Z model. Sadly it won't let me make an animation for a comparison.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Signs of splitting at FV3 +300, ahead of 12Z? Looks like a good run to me.

[January 2019 C.E.T. forecast and EWP contests]

3.1c and 90.1mm I think, please.

[December 2018 CET forecasts and EWP contest -- start of 2018-19 competitions]

3.6c temp and 74.6mm precipitation I think.

[Winter 2018/19]

When people were seeing models the great models, I thought that most people would take it much more negatively than they actually have (the models are still good). Though to me it never did seem amazing, someone can tell me how I'm wrong about this, comparing it with other years. My worries are that after December (where the blocking may only exist around the start and second half) it will just be a disappointing rest of the winter. Even in December where the blocking is good I don't see anything like in 2010 happening again. It's definitely very probably better than average but still not enough for most of us - I was wanting an overall Winter CET of below 0c .

I want to ask, how you think December would compare to something like 2010.

[Winter 2018/19]

For around the past month, I thought that this winter was looking quite good, nothing to me suggested any huge records being broken but there was certainly some snow and cold potential, and it looked to me like it would come around January, which is always a good time. Honestly, even when the graphs went bad medium-term in the past couple of days, it didn't really change my mind. But looking at everything now, I've had to think that the winter is going to be a huge disappointment, I wasn't following it nearly as much last year but except from the start and the end, when I wasn't expecting it, it seemed close to being something good but it never really was. I'm not predicting that there will be no cold spells, but I don't see them being anything special. Hopefully there will be good lowland snow at some point, but I worry that it won't happen at all. Looking at all the predictions, and the 'good' graphs, I only imagine it either going to the mild side or just never being cold enough.

But, as always, you can quite definitely disregard everything I've said. As you can probably tell, I have very little knowledge of predicting weather, and what to most people might be a decent winter to me isn't good enough. It'll be interesting to be told and to see how wrong I am.

(also sorry if I sent this a bunch of times by accident, I think I got logged out)

[Coldest minima winter 2018-2019 season]

5 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Welcome brm, Are you from Brum ? Coldie? If so how about West Midlands?

 

BFTP

That would be a nice place for it to be, I don't feel like it'll be somewhere like Altnaharra or Braemar.  But that's just how I feel, I'm honestly quite clueless.

[Coldest minima winter 2018-2019 season]

I predict -14.3c minima, not sure where.