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Ultima Thule

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Posts posted by Ultima Thule

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Polar. said:

    I fear some think this is a certainty after the latest runs. The track of the low will probably change again. There's too much uncertainty still on the exact track. I'm sure it will snow somewhere, I'm not disputing that but I'd air on the side of caution. It could travel further North, further south,  stay the same. We simply don't know, there is no consistency yet for anyone to know where the low will track. 

    Very sensible post.  The one certainty is there is no certainty as regards the impacts of the approaching low on 25/26 December.

    • Thanks 1

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

    Suddenly it’s the GFS that is the coldest and most wintry whilst the ECM and UKMO are much milder.

    Still people talking as if something several days ahead is a done deal when we have a highly complex situation with continuing model disagreement. Really irritating. Some people will never learn.

    Yes buddy, the FI window for 25th may come down to t48-t72 so we may not be resolved until Wednesday afternoon!

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    Model output discussion 10/02/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Ultima Thule

    39 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    By day ten the GEFS have a range of solutions .

    Theres a cluster of around 6 which I shall name the Cluster of Hope ! 

    I am unfathomably confident that we will see a Return of The Beast from around February 25th.  One or two GEFS indicate this (11 and 29 IIRC).

    I will be looking to see a surge of HP and WAA up across the Uk around 22-23 February to facilitate the Scandi High later on.  Some signs on GEM, and ECM may or may not play ball this evening.

    • Like 12

    Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    Am I the only one who thinks that the UKMO day 6 chart is decent? Significant wedge over Scandinavia.

    Also, for fwiw the ICON is cold throughout.  

    The models have a bias to be progressive when encountering a pool of cold air.  Anything after day 5 should be treated with a truck load of salt!

    It is excellent.  Far too many people obsess about GFS and try to make this the GFS discussion board.  We are in for a good cold spell.  UKMO leads where lesser models follow.

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Kent Clipper said:

    Evening.

    We virtually have cross model agreement now on a general pattern that introduces the initial cold incursion on Christmas Eve. Indeed Christmas Eve evening and early Christmas morning continue to offer some snow flurries to many eastern coastal counties of England and Scotland all the way down to ....yes, Kent ! 

    Its a potent little blast this one, relative to recent standards with 521 dam, -8c (850s) and -3c (925s) at 00.00hrs on 25/12 here in Folkestone. ( I noticed a very slight kink on the 12z GFS over the low countries for this period, suggestive of a weak frontal or trough feature.

    A dusting first thing on the big day would make up somewhat for a torrid year for many.

    Thereafter we have the diving trough feature circa 27th onwards. Incredible agreement on the longevity of this one as well with 850's levelling out at -5 to -6 for several days. There is the continued signal for more of a NNE'ly flow towards New Year but that is way in FI and useful only for observational purposes at present.

    The iffy looking 850 Hpa's have been the subject of many discussions in recent days. It is my opinion that the precipitation around is going to swing the right of white rather than wet for various reasons.

    1. Time of year, very little solar insulation.

    2. Slack set up, we create our cold pool all the time we keep this synoptic set up.

    3. Thicknesses are circa 520-525 for many for much of the week. (Easily supportive of snow).

    4. Pressure is circa 980mb meaning that the '850Hpa' temperature is closer to the boundary layer

    5. The airmass is unstable. Mesoscale trough features will only show up within 48 hours in most cases.

    6. Our old friend evaporative cooling will play its hand due to a lack of mixing out breezes.

    Whatever happens its a fascinating set up and one that will keep forecasters and amateurs on their toes for the next couple of weeks. The ingredients are all there on the sideboard ready. They need to all be added to the bowl though to make this potentially quite a memorable one, not that this will be difficult for many of us snow starved SE Kent folk that somehow escaped the beast from the east back in late Feb / early March 2018.

    Cheers, Steve.

     

    Positive thinking there Kent Clipper!  Down there in Kent I guess you need something to look forward to!

    • Like 1

    Arctic Refreeze Season: 2020/21

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    On 24/10/2020 at 17:46, Don said:

    Yes, an eye opener indeed!  Not good and what would we give to get the good old days back?!

    Step one of a thousand steps to getting the old days back is the elimination of Donald Trump as a political force.  So its over to the American people and fingers crossed on November 3rd.

    • Like 2

    Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020/21

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    The sea ice is in a truly terrible state, and it's descent into record low territory is growing each day. No significant ice formation yet along the Russian coastline, something not seen previously and extra surprising considering those seas used to have ice throughout the summer in most years.

    AnimationReg.thumb.gif.16f3892594a9985198048d9c050b1c49.gif

    Its called a climate crisis and its happening now, you are looking at the very predictable outcomes starting to play out with horrific clarity.

    • Thanks 1
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