mushymanrob
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Posts posted by mushymanrob
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. Take today - 19.4c max (around average for a June afternoon) but it's still 17c at midnight - and of course mostly cloudy all day. Certainly the trend this summer hence the high CET.
this highlights the reason why those championing the CET being above normal are wrong about their equasion the high CET = good summer! a high CET means absolutely nothing if theres no sunshine and an occassional hot spell.
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oh for a deep southeasterly! lol
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There is nearly 2 and a half months of summer left, we can't forecast that far ahead, so we don't know what will happen. It could well be sorching for the rest of the summer. So, no, we don't know if summer will be good or bad. Ask that question in August perhaps if it's been terrible up til then but it's utterly premature now.
in fairness the question was asked asking for our opinions and not for a definitive answer which of course as you say couldnt be given. i think theres plenty on here with enough experience to take an educated guess, but thats all it would be, a guess.
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To me summer isnt over its just starting. Between 25th of june to the end of september is summer to me. Because this is when i seem to get the best weather.
happen so, but metereologically it isnt summer in september!
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Yes, at my location, we have only had around 5 sun days as i would call them (sunny periods of at least an hour between 11-3), which gives June thus far 1/10, though the temperature gives this another 2/10, so i would rate June so far at 3/10 however given non stop rainfall in recent days, i am deducting another 1/10, meaning that my rating for June so far is 2/10, and highly doubt that June will reach its potential 7/10.
thats a useful index, i hope others see it and take on board just how dissapointing june has been... for some, given that gw should make summers better!
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it seems that evertime it thunders everyone says 'did you see that terrific storm'?..
but most of thundr isnt associated with an actual 'storm' is it?
what is the difference between 'rain accompanied by thunder', (thundery rain)... 'thundery showers', and 'thunderstorms'? ... i think its pretty self explanitory but i was wondering if there is a definitive meterological discription...
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please...... NO ONE HAS EVER SAID 'SUMMER IS OVER'.. except the people who are habitually mis-quoting others
.I on the other hand have said that MAYBE things dont look as good as they did earlier in the year..
patterns.... its all about synoptic patterns, and as we approach mid month theres no sign of a pattern change that will deliver more normal summer conditions. true, the messy synoptics of late has favoured some, others though have suffered persistent cloud. this isnt normal summer weather.
so with nothing at the moment showing for june, thats a third of the summer gone.
theres nothing to suggest that the messy synoptic pattern will change although fi for weeks has been suggesting it, it never becomes reality. so will things change for july?.... maybe... the truth is that we just dont know.
august 2005 and 2006 were poor, IF august 2007 follows suit then theres precious little time or scope for 'real' summer to start.
of course we are living in a time of global warming so i dont think anybody expects cold weather.... but cloudy, wet, most probably, sunny hot?... could be!
it all depends upon what you call 'summer weather' really. to me a normal summer would be one of a recuring around 3 weeks swesterly followed by a week or so of settled hot sunny weather ending in a thundery breakdown... THAT to me is a 'summer'. anything extra in the heat/sun department is a bonus!
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Did you get any snow in June 1975 though at the beginning?
March 1995 was another very snowy month here.
Need I say more about Jan82 or dec81 :wub:
the first few days of june '75 were cold, i didnt see snow but at my altitude it is unlikely anyway. the first week of june i was working outdoors and monday i was in full winter gear... by friday i was topless! a rise of 4c a day from 4c to 24c in 5 days!... but i liked june 75, especially the thundery period late on.
Well, I'm surprised; I thought Mushy would come out with a set that I would disagree with, but with the exception of his February I'd personally quite happily settle for a year like that!ive said all along that im a weather fan... not exclusively for heat, but a long cold period wouldnt be nice for me, ive worked outdoors in it and its put me off it now...getting too old...lol.. a short period of very cold weather per winter would be nice, dec 81, jan 82 were perfect... my ideal winter..
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january..... 1982.. cold at first but then it went, and stayed away
february.....1980.. the best bartlett month nice and mild
march........ 1995.. a nice normal month
april........... 2007.. pipped '90 ... glorious!
may........... 1970... plenty of early heat and thunder
june........... 1975... superb for sun and heat
july............ 2006.... the perfect july, but lacking thunderstorms.
august........ 1995... heat with thunderstorms
september... 1973.. the best thunderstorm here .
october....... 2003... nice weather
november....1995... still retaining its warmth
december.... 1981... the perfect winter month, lots of snow early in the winter.
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totally impossible to give anything like an accurate forecast for that date this far off... 4 weeks odd?.. anything would be a pure guess and would be utterly worthless. suggest you try again in early june
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many thanks for shareing your pics with us, id love to see storms like that but doubts that ill ever get to america, so seeing these pics are a good substitute!
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splendid post johnholmes
, nice to see all the factors being considered . -
ive got several, some i dont prune at all leaving them to form small trees, others i cut back anytime after flowering over winter (filling my brown bin over several months), or i cut them right down... around now.
tbh theres no hard and fast rule, those i pruned in october flower just the same as those i cut now or those i dont prune... i very rarely have had any trouble with frosts but even if they do kill the tips... they do grow back!
the old notion that gardening is governed by hard and fast rules is basically... bull! lol, (im a proffessional gardener of 34 years)
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alot has been pontificated about the amount of carbon being released into the atmosphere by any means on a daily basis....
ive not seen anyone mentioning the amount of carbon taken out of the atmosphere daily by photosynthesis, which would increase in temperate zones during warmer weather..
If you want to complain to channel four here is the online form to do it on:http://help.channel4.com/SRVS/CGI-BIN/WEBC...T_TITLE=General
And you can complain to ofcom.....
http://www.ofcom.org.uk/complain/progs/spe.../?itemid=286480
complain?.... congratulate more like... weather or not you agree with the content many of the facts as presented by it go unchallenged... people are still overlooking the fact that the earths climate has always fluctuated, mainly by people who think that the last 200 years or so of accurate measurements are the norm...lol.. of course 200 years is only a tenth of two thousand years and nothing since the begining of time.
what caused warming in roman times? in early medieval times? and the cooling in the 'little ice age'?.. these factors have to be taken into account because temperature variability has happend many times without mans interferance.
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, the truth is almost all the program was rubbish, wrong and misleading in the extreme.
Matt
what?.... the programme showed us the facts, the facts that clearly demonstrated that we have next to no impact on the climate.. i dont know what bit of the programme was 'rubbish, wrong, extreme'.. it was clearly explained science to me.
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It was interesting though to watch the program and see the co-founder of Greenpeace basically say eveything that the group beleieves in now is wrong.
not actually what he said...
he said that when mainstream greenpeace issues were taken up by politicians then they had to resort to more extreme issues in order to still be a voice of descent...
typical of 'green' pressure groups (of which i am affiliated
) i too am now doubting (seriously) their intentions. it seems that many green issues are in fact based on incomplete science..abit like t6he idiots who thought they were doing good by releasing mink into the environment.... I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad..
QUOTE(parmenides3 @ 8 Mar 2007, 11:52 PM)
Evening all. No surprise; nobody has changed their mind about anything much, it seems.
My opinion? At first I thought it was clever, but after a while it got repetitive and I gave up, because the material was all so familiar.
What I did watch contained carefully phrased sentences which did not say what they appeared to, quotations which had no proper context, so may or may not have been what the people were actually referring to, cherry-picks from wherever they could be found, blatantly deceptive graphs based on old or incomplete research/data, and overexaggerated claims of conspiracies and vested interests which were no more than opinions.
Almost every image and sentence was a carefully constructed deception or misrepresentation.
I don't expect the doubters to agree with me, or even to care what I think. I don't expect the AGWers to be fooled for an instant. I certainly have neither the time nor the desire to go over the same material for the thousand and oneth time to 'prove' AGW.
Does anyone remember the Hitler diaries? That one sold a lot of newspapers.
but the facts are still there to be cross checked at every oportunity... co2 FOLLOWS warming, it doesnt cause it... that is the salient point, plus, man only contributes less then 0'5% of co2 emissions... those are the scientific facts that are being overlooked. (by the pro- 'man is guilty' mob)
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Finally I have books from the late 60’s and early 70’s suggesting that Global Cooling was a Man made phenomena and that we should take heed quickly and amend our polluting ways.
Yes we should amend our ways, a cleaner world is better for everyone, thank god we don’t all burn slack on our fire at home any more, who wants thick acrid smoke to breath in, I do my bit for the cleaner planet by cycling 5 miles to work everyday, and recycle as much waste as possible and that includes 100% of all my garden waste, back into my own garden, we all want our children to live on an unpolluted world.
Paul
totally agree
assuming the facts given out last night were the truth (and its pretty certain they were) and therefore man isnt responsable for gw, i still dont think we should pollute our 'great mother'.. id hate it if our inconsequence regarding gw would be used as a charter to pollute.
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fascinating programme that fully explained that we do not effect the climate (significantly anyway).
ive always argued that the climate has ALWAYS varied, this was fully demonstrated in this documentary, and has done without any help from mankind!
as the amount of carbon emmissions that we pour out is only less then 0.5%, then how tf are we responsable?
science demonstrated that carbon rises inn the atmosphere followed temperature rises that occured in correlation with solar activity.
until any new science based facts arise, im happy to blame global warming on the sun! lol.
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..... so of us expected a very mild winter, after all, it was only a matter of time in this age of gw before a record warm, or near record warm winter would occur..
although i dont like it too cold, id sooner have a winter then not...
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things are looking to me like a pretty 'normal' february type run. february can often be dominated by no strong synoptic, giving us alot of cool, grey weather.
snowlovers dont get greedy, youve just had your dose for this decade! lol.
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hmm..... im still not convinced that this event will be one at all, other then a fleeting frustrating glimps of snow that wont settle for long if at all, of course those at higher altitude have more chance..
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Latest Fax chart for Saturday stays with the GFS Operational 12z's view. Good to see the front ahead of the 528dam line :lol:
surely to god that wouldnt be good for snow!... itll all melt and be gone..
seeing snow is one thing, having it settle and stay is another,,
im still sticking with 'ill believe it when i see it'.. im FAR from convinced that this coming event will be a widespread snow event.
my prediction?... mass frustration that many wont see settling snow.
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Be careful mushy, note where that air is actually coming from in the first place and you'll see its sourced in the arctic as you can see on the 120hr chart before that:
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rgem1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rgem1202.gif
the only thing that would limit that set-up is the cloud cover but it would probably turn out cold I suspect if that was right.
In terms of the snowfall on Thursday, every single model has a period of snow for nearly everybody Wed-Friday, even if it is just a breif snowfall before it turns to rain.
morning kold..
yeah i might be wrong, but i think that air would have warmed up abit, cold-yes, but dry and that trough looks too shallow enough to produce much precipitation on its leading edge. but its all semantics. lets just see!
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thats not a good chart, the air is scourced too far south so im not sure itll be that cold but even if it was it'd be dry.
interestingly, the more those lows sink into france the longer the cold spell will last which draws in the cold air longer on the easterly which should highten the eventual snow risk. surface temps of 3c or above just isnt good enough for settlement, ive seen snow melt on freezing ground so for a decent dumping id be looking at sub-zero temps for any snow to be of any use.
ps... louise leer just said 'we are confident of some disruptive snow on thursday for southern england'..... erm, that supports the models? (lol tenuous topic connection)
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what is a thunderstorm?....
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted
when i was younger (late 60's early 70's) it seemed that every year we had a superb storm. these followed a similar pattern. the breeze was southeasterly, the sky darkend in the southwest, we could hear thunder in the distance, the storm was moving northwards, it always seemed to hit my west first, as if the storm line was on at an angle as it moved north, soon we could see the base of the cloud with a dramatic updraft in front of it, when the grey base was over us that when torrential rain and frequent thunder and lightening occured. this lasted around an hour to an hour and a half, afterwards the storm cleared and the sun came out! no lingering grey murk... and the east was the last place to get it as it moved north.
there was one of these on either 31st july or 1st august 1972, and one on a saturday in mid september 1973.
only very rarely have i seen storms like this since the mid 70's... pity... they were my fav forms and seemed like an annual event back then.