TheJCInsights
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1 minute ago, Biggin said:Nah
Superb analysis
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As a north Hampshire southerner, I have my fingers crossed that that low actually is further south so we get the snow not the rain - although over time the GFS usually moves the low south each time doesn't it!
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In a more close up hunt for cold, seemingly depending on which model you trust determines what happens in South England tomorrow afternoon with regard to that front coming south.
GFS seems to think a couple of cm snow fluries
ECMWF seems dry
Icon and Aperge think rain.Nowhere seems to say anything other than "Light rain" in their forecasts though so assuming GFS is messing with me.
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Quite enjoying the wild differences depending on what model you look at for tomorrow afternoon down in central southern...
GFS = couple of cm slow fluries
ECMWF = Dry
Icon / Aperge = Rain
So who on Earth knows! Ha. -
So, looking at models this morning, and based on what I have silently been learning by reading everyone's post and never, ever commenting, I'd ask the question that should the GFS be on to something with this seemingly random snowfall event, doesn't this type of thing often correct South in subsequent runs? Meaning either further South will be hit or potentially miss the UK in it's entirety?
Of course, I have no idea haha! Nice to see this spring up though!
Happy New Year all!-
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That's not to say I have only 2 friends, just to clear that up.
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I feel I owe all coldies like me an apology. This was nailed on yesterday after the 12 run, then I told my wife and 2 friends.
Had I not, this would still be the big blizzard across the south.
I'm so so sorry... Why did I tell anyone?!
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9 minutes ago, That ECM said:
Its like battle ships why don’t you just say Oxford.
Lol Andover
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Apologies for the IMBY style event, but I am, by definition, central southern. Up from middle of Isle Of Wight and across from that bit that pokes in below Wales whatever that's called lol.
I always worry when we have the insanity charts we just saw, it doesn't quite make it to us. When the Atlantic barges in, it's rain by the time it gets to us, and when it's a true motherly, it's bone dry.
This week's model watching is going to be intense!!
Is it bad I've told a few people to prepare for a snow event next Monday?
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Andover just now :
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Snowing moderately here in Andover. Small attempt to land on car roofs but not successfully. Flakes very small sadly. But lovely to see and quite the surprise!
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So, if there's anything I have learnt from reading the posts here over the years and never being brave enough to post, is that the GFS often blows up lows out of nowhere once you get into FI.
Surely the big low forming at +240 isn't likely and is just another classic GFS explosion?
Fantastic model watching!
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This just appeared for Andover out of nowhere. Who knows if this will happen!?
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In Andover today it has snowed literally all day. Heaviest snow I have seen in my lifetime during the late afternoon too. Astounded the Amber warning didn't cover this area! Snowed almost for 24 hours straight.
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Been heavy in Andover for a good while. Adding to the thick covering from last night!
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I think we should remember that while yes, we are disappointed with this morning's output, the GFS still ultimately goes for cold and snowy across the board. Had we not have just been teased with the easterly flavourings, we'd be celebrating that a cold spell is on the way based on the 6z!
#staypositive
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The GFS has, on and off, suggested January 22nd would be a fairly interesting snow event.
Could it be that after 34 years, I finally get a snow day on my birthday in the South??
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My birthday is the 22nd January and to this day (currently 33) I've never had a proper big snow events t on my birthday. Best it has ever got has been some heavy showers that didn't settle....
GFS currently suggesting that, maybe, just maybe this could be my year??
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Hello all, long time reader, first time poster!
Really enjoy the musings over the models and trying to learn about it all.
So far I've never understood why the JMA comes up with stuff so far fetched but generally the other models don't! How can they be so different?
Really hoping for another "Beast from the East " or at least a...."Force from the North"...anyone?
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Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
So one thing I have learnt from reading in here and very rarely ever posting, is how fast stuff can turn around, and fly in the face of all predictions, likelihoods and background signals. For example, only the day before these mammoth northerly and Greenland blocking suddenly appeared, a lot of posts were saying the best change won't come before last week if Jan or Feb and wait it out a few weeks, then suddenly it all went crazy exciting. So even if this attempt is ultimately watered down or a slight disappointment, it was great observing, bit of a snow here and there and it can easily suddenly materialise again in a week or two again out of nowhere. It's why we love British weather.