MATTWOLVES 3

Come on Darling nudge yourself West....come onnn..dont be shy. I'm liking this run...really nice vortex separation too boot.

Do I detect an improvement with the 12z... @Battleground Snow are you posting from my spare room mate

People keep saying post of the day on here....how about word of the day!!! That one would have most definitely won you a prize on countdown Dare I say a seasonal spell of temps and ground conditions for Xmas! At least it would mirror the way things were last year around these parts!

Yes mate,it's perhaps a tad negative from somebody like me who loves a ramp. I will be chasing long and hard probably through til end of March....I think the main point was some posters put all there eggs in one basket regarding SSW events! Yes they can be game changers,but they can also ruin a favourable sypnotic pattern. But I suppose many will take the 66% chance of wintry conditions that can follow. The post was very much a sitting on the fence type,without all my usual hype,but I remain confident that we can get some rewards moving forward....its going to take many many poor operational runs before I lose my mojo. And just a little reminder its rarely this side of Xmas we ever see significant cold,a major cool down across Europe will be one of the main things we need to see right now,if things still look muted come late January....it could spell trouble for obvious reasons. So I'm not dreaming of a white Xmas....but most definitely dreaming of a white New Year....in all fairness I'm becoming sick to death of the green landscape.

A lot of thought provoking and very knowledgeable posts in here tonight,with a range of possible outcomes from a range of very astute posters. I'm not a big fan of seasonal forecasts,especially a several month anomalies plot that shows potential heights and lows in various places...the atmosphere is far to volatile for these kind of distant forecasts to get a hold on! The way I see it is we have a rather sluggish Atlantic,and it's know secret it's been that way for a long time now.. at least a year infact! I'm a tad concerned about the positioning of the tpv towards our NW,with that amount of energy it makes it very difficult to gain real momentum with blocking towards that vicinity. We are currently heading towards mjo 7 and perhaps a possible 8...these scenarios usually assist us with -NAO and Northern blocking...they will perhaps also help to put more strain on the strat! But....its possible that a very strong vortex could end up muting the mjo affects just like it can mute the nina cycles in the Pacific ocean. So I still have a little trepidation regarding this. If we can keep some kind of favourable N/H profile we may not need a major kick to that strat...ie a split. Yes splits reverse the meanal winds from West to East,and if falling favourably they can deliver brutal cold from the NE/E.....but let's not be fooled here....there are many displacements and splits that do not fall in our favour at all...sometimes more Southern areas of Europe get all the goods,while parts of the States also getting a big freeze. Last year's events...although mainly displacements only really delivered fleetingly and to not all areas of the UK...the 2018 event was special...a major split that was actually to impressive...spreading the freeze right out across the Atlantic! But again do bare in mind that the freeze lasted only around 5 or 6 days...with storm Bella coming along and killing it off...with only major snow towards SE Ireland! In a nutshell a humongous split vortex brought barely a week of cold! It was no 1987 by a long shot...again that one also being brief,with it coming out of thin air,before dissipating as quick as it appeared. If we end up stuck in a rut come mid January...we may very well be praying for a split...a big split...and again if its to late....end of Jan..early Feb...not necessarily a good thing,with a colder spring being the most likely outcome...if its gonna be late it needs to be A QTR! Much water to go under the bridge until then though! Let's see where we are come the 1st week of January!

Why is it so many heads drop each and everytime there's a bad op run! Whenever you feel this way fill a pint glass half way....and keep telling yourselves it's half full,not half empty....works for me everytime and you end up getting pretty drunk Personally I think we could be seeing some better runs from the ECM over the next couple of days.. There are hints on these long range ens of a gathering of colder options...and some of them much colder... Have a little faith..

I've read this post back 50 times now mate and I'm more confused than ever..I thought you was talking about DJ equipment with the burst amps for a while To sum up to those of us on planet earth...it trends colder towards Xmas...could be some Frost and dense fog...If this were to stick during the day's,it would be very cold...beyond that things could get interesting...GEM seems keen on putting an NE/Estly our way...long way off. Love your style tight...keep it up.

In the words of the late great Marvin Gaye I've heard it on the grapevine.....potential disruption to the strat further down the line...one to watch,but the possibility is there. I'm not overly convinced of a return to mild and wet into January....long way off and always sounds like the models are unsure...theres conflicting signals...let's revert back to climatology normal! Some cracking profiles on some of the 6z ens only viewed half of them,but definitely some good trends. On a plus side most of me Xmas shopping done thats really taken it out of me ordering everything through Amazon prime.. @Georgina thanks for the kind words in your post. And folks take care,omicron spreading like wildfire. Eyes down for the 12s..

I will raise a glass...to hope to all good men and woman of course. It can get a little fickle at times in here,a bit like a football forum when your team loses...get a win and things are great...a couple of setbacks and its the end of the world...sack the manager,get a new team! The analogy being we don't know for sure regarding the build of heights next week will hold....sink...or migrate further North...we can only assume on current guidance what the models hint at each and everyday...They may hint it sinks today...come Saturday they may hint it pushes NW,and come Sunday....it pushes NE. Absolutely no point in painting the worse kind of picture at this early stage.. Like me old nan used to say....Matthew....get the Heights over us,and then watch em pull North...mind you she used to have conversations with a stuffed rabbit.. Pretty good ECM..all options are on the table...now get out there and have a drink for me! Fab weekend to you all

Yeh and just to say...When the met office update is put out by the duty forecaster,its not to say all those that work there agree with the prognosis! Marco puts his own thoughts out on social media,and it could be at loggerheads with the Exeter updates. We have some good signals going on right now,and a month is one hell of a long way out in meteorology! Thank yourselves lucky I don't do the updates...it would be temps below average 24/7

Shorter term looks pretty cold...that hint of milder more unsettled seems to be further into January! 3 to 4 weeks away...far to far out to be that concerned in all honesty. We all know big swings can come at anytime and trust me that could flip big time in the next 10 days! Come on guys,don't let the met mild fanatics grind you down. We will get colder in the mid term,beyond that anything is possible.. Keep ya heads held high and the deserts will come.

At around day 8 we have strong signals from the ens regarding high pressure literally right over us. Some perhaps moving it further NE... The op tends to keep a very strong tpv to the NW which makes it very difficult to get Heights nudging in that direction..But I would say at this stage it could at least be more seasonal with frosts! Could be a lag still with the mjo cycle...or we could end up with the vortex overriding the signal...So let's get Heights over us first,and worry about the rest later. And just to say a big thanks for some kind messages from you great folks on here regarding my dad...life is always more difficult at this time of the year,and being kind does not have to mean throwing money at it! Sometimes just some kind words to other with problems can work wonders! So kudos to you all...it proves its more than just a weather forum,we have some very kind and and loving people on this site...and I sincerely wish you all the greatest of Christmases and good health.

There's some cracking ens again from the 6z folks. This one has really taken the eye. Dare I start dreaming of a colder Christmas day! And then start dreaming of a white New Year! The only thing I really want for Xmas is my dad to get better,but unfortunately that won't happen...so heart felt sympathy to anyone else in a similar boat. My next wish is all the cold crew on here get a winter that they've craved all there life...one for the history books...one not to forget! Could be a depressing Xmas for all the wrong reasons again this year regarding covid,but hopefully we all end up with a little joy regarding our weather conditions. @jon snow @Griff let's be having you lads...where are all the ramps! Drinks all around for positive 12z updates,and a cracking EC46 tonight.

Some positive ens from the oz suite...can we build on this momentum today,cause currently I'm liking what I see. And if I'm happy,we are all happy..

The 18z may seem far fetched it may be pie eyed...but tbh its a perfectly plausible scenario following a phase 7 event,and expecially regarding a large anticyclone about to develop towards us. It may may be gone in the morning,but I can guarantee these runs will be rearing there heads more and more in the days ahead! Whoever said know chance of a white Xmas hang your heads in shame....OK so it's a long way out,but ain't it just lovely to see the possibility! What we don't need is the local papers getting hold of these charts right now...more restrictions and headlines of big freeze incoming....can you just imagine the holiday shopping period! Guys...your all excellent knowledgeable forecasters...but I really do think you need to sharpen up on your chart drawings

So nice of you to drop in Chris and really cheer the place up...I've actually got a feeling you will be doing the same when summer comes...when things end up cool and cloudy! I'm in all fairness quite confused by the thread today...it seemed Euphoric this morning,now all I seem to be reading is how we have a potential slug,or really poor output again,while others state things are moving in the right direction! Give it a few more days and we will be getting the mjo phase 7 has failed....or how it was a phantom!! I'm glad it's Xmas, a time to be with family and enjoy oneself,more restrictions to come...same old story...Im not going to lose any sleep over where we may be in 10 days time with the weather...im pretty sure some will it to not happen,or simply don't believe anything any good is capable of happening,which annoys me. Mmmmm 10 days from now...December 18th!! Hardly running out of time are we I can see some slowly emerging signs of colder runs appearing in those ens beyond day 10..its gonna be after Xmas before things are likely to cool down....forget the next 10 or so days,enjoy your Xmas...and don't let the models get you down..they change daily,and tomorrow's will most likely be completely different again. Catch you all around the Xmas holidays....enjoy yourselves....

I think its pointless getting to hung up over individual op runs...the ens are playing around with many different solutions regarding positioning of Heights...some very favourable...I think we are still looking good for colder eventually...but could be final 3rd... No stress from me...im watching psycho so I'm very relaxed

So we await mjo phase 7 to bring us something colder later this month...just pulled this from twitter also..perhaps signs of a vortex disconnect....ie cold not propagating into the troposphere.....eyes peeled!!

No mate they know nothing,we get odds of that and shorter every year for a white Xmas...they most certainly are Express readers. I would say settled with night Frost is the most likely option as opposed to falling snow...long way off,but unlikely imo.

Tbh mate...its nothing,we've already had snowfalls and pretty cold temps,and even though it's foolhardy to pattern match other years for cross reference...history tells us most proper cold snaps don't even get started till after the Xmas period...has the nights grow longer the cold grows stronger. We have to be in for the long hauls..to get them big snowfalls @Ali1977 roughly 10-12 days before having affect on the Atlantic profile...these mjo events can also help towards the weakening of the strat vortex.. so we just need a little patience...but theres definitely good evidence on phases 7 and 8 bringing negative values on nao,and obviously increased blocking potential. You see folks I know all of this..but I didn't seem to know where a Bartlett high was situated....dohhhhh

Why does there seem to be so much concern regarding high pressure nudging North? The process ain't even started yet...the general picture was for high pressure towards Xmas and beyond that point to perhaps bring colder conditions with Frost shortly after. We are still talking 14+ days away yet,so it seems a little foolish to be getting concerned over developments this far away!

Cheers mate...this is something I was told years ago or something I actually read...I was aware it was a very stubborn high pressure system,but not sure of its exact location. In all honesty in all the years of watching weather forecasts,and there's been thousands of em...I've never even once heard a presenter refer to the name Bartlett! Whoever he is I don't like this Bartlett geezer

Thanks for the corrections guys...I've had that Bartlett high written down for years...and I've know idea of the source now. I thought it seemed odd being Arcric/Russia...and yeh its a mild high,so what I said makes know sense at all come to think of it. Please forgive me I've trained legs today

Before members or lurkers start asking the question..what is a Bartlett high....its an intense slow moving area of High pressure primarily situated over the Arctic and into Russia. And can we please stop talking about it,as no1 I'm not seeing it,and more importantly it makes me very nervous! Let's not try and wish the worse possible outcome on ourselves.

It's OK John,I'm gonna have to tell the kids it's a snow making machine or nothing this year Hope you get that heating sorted pronto....dont let them mess you about...keep warm good man,and thanks for your noaa updates..