Always Upsidedown
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Posts posted by Always Upsidedown
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This gives me reason to be a little more optimistic. Nothing suggesting any heavy snow and certainly not persistent snow but perhaps a few cm. Light snow to start in the early hours.
TAF: EGSS 061704Z 0618/0724 04007KT 9999 SCT003 BKN008 TEMPO 0618/0622 6000 RA PROB40 TEMPO 0618/0622 BKN003 TEMPO 0622/0701 2000 SNRA OVC003 PROB40 TEMPO 0622/0701 0800 SN BKN001 BECMG 0701/0704 04016G28KT 3000 -SN TEMPO 0701/0707 0800 SN OVC001 PROB40 TEMPO 0707/0718 0800 SN OVC003
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Just now, tight isobar said:
My friend I never use apps..@hate em I view model Synoptics and evolutionary traits.. I merely used those as examples of your quotations. And I’ll stick with my prognosis... ciao
Well i really hope that your right but i just don't see it. As a pilot i know how far forecasts and reality can be at odds. As has always been the case and always will be the case all become clear in due course and in truth nobody knows how much will be on the ground this time tomorrow.
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2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:
Your aving a laugh I assum??!. Your in prime locale for upgrades.. if that amber was any closer to your geographical.. it’ll bite ya.. I can fully see you in an extension of amber area once things liven up!!
Unfortunately the weather never looks at apps on phones. Nor goes it view charts, it just does what it does and the trend is pretty clear for this area. Has been all day. We will get snow, just not very much.
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2 minutes ago, Joanne Swann said:
Thats what im waiting for well hoping anyway as not far from you
Sorry to say that our general neck of the woods will do well to get any more than a couple of cm by the end of Sunday. Looked quite promising for a while but it was clear from this morning that this was not going to be a major event for our area.
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Well this is not going to be a non-event for me at Stansted but probably wont see more than 2-3cm. Very optimistic 24hrs ago but much less so now. Oh well, back to the rugby. The thing is and what i have to keep reminding my self is that charts are just charts and that the weather will do what it does and it gives pays no heed to any prediction.
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1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:
I’d be shocked if that’s all you get.
I really hope that you are correct. Maybe i am just being a bit glass half fullish. Speaking of which Rugby starts soon so better get a glass of something sorted out.
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I will be interested to see how this snow depth chart would look if were to be updated right now. I suspect a significant downgrade. I hope not but certainly for my area near Stansted i cant help feeling that snow depths will be o more than 3-4cm by the end of Sunday.
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The good news is that the TAFs for Norwich & Stansted have now been amended with an increased likelihood of snow. Still not great and still likely to be wet and slushy but better than nothing. Still time for further amendments to come.
Defo more positive now.
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7 minutes ago, fluid dynamic said:
Can I just check, are we still on Plan A?
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10 minutes ago, Nick F said:
Yes, not the best probability is it. Though even Luton Airport has 30% prob of snow and it's 150m asl according to streetmap/OS. Would expect better snow probs up there so not so sure the probability on TAFs is always a good guide.
No, its not the best. Also remember that prob 30 doesn't mean that there is a 30% probability! its a bit more binary than that. Prob 40 means that it is likely to happen, something like a 75% chance (ish) and prob 30 means it is not likely to happen, something less than 25% chance (ish). There is never a prob 50, 60 etc. Strange system isn't it and a can't imagine what sort of mind came up with it but strangely it actually works quite well.
You may have known that already in which case I am sorry for teaching my grandmother to suck eggs.
I always go with the TAFs on the day.
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19 minutes ago, Nick F said:
TAFs for Gatwick and Heathrow mentioning snow after 19z, temporary heavy snow showers between 20-23z
Gatwick
EGKK 291058Z 2912/3018 13005KT 9999 SCT040 TEMPO 2912/2919 4000 SHRA BKN008 BECMG 2918/2921 31012KT TEMPO 2919/2924 2000 SHRASN BKN006 PROB30 TEMPO 2920/2923 0500 +SHSN BKN004 PROB30 3015/3018 VRB03KT
Heathrow
EGLL 291058Z 2912/3018 16005KT 9999 SCT030 PROB30 TEMPO 2914/2919 8000 SHRA BKN008 TEMPO 2919/2923 2000 SHRASN BKN006 PROB30 TEMPO 2920/2923 0500 +SHSN BKN004 BECMG 2921/2924 30010KT
Yes. But this is the thing Nick - PROB30 TEMPO 2920/2923 0500 +SHSN BKN004. Its a Prob 30 which means that the +SHSN will most likely not happen. Now if it was a prob 40 that would be a different matter. The tempo means that even if it did happen it would last no longer than half the period covered which would mean 1.5hrs at best. Hence my pessimism.
Only prob 30 & no more than 1.5 hrs.
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19 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:
So 6 or 7 hours of snow, potentially for us in East Anglia.
Sorry but the Norwich TAF says that if you get any snow at all (which is unlikely) it will only be very brief, an hour at most.
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4 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:
HUSH or I'll throw a precipitation ball at you!!
I want to go precipitation sledging.
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5 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:
Or thick with snow
That would be nice but I suspect that Southend will get nothing and my neck of the woods (Stansted) will get next to nothing or nothing at all in terms of snow fall. That's based on the airport TAFs and they are seldom wrong I am afraid.
Hoping that Thursday turns out to be a bit better because for me all hope of anything even half decent has gone for tonight.
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3 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:
Looks like quite a long period of precipitation
Yup. Roads might be pretty icy in the morning.
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Latest TAF for Stansted (EGSS) now out and still not showing anything significant at all for the Stansted area. We will be lucky to get anything more than a bit of sleet or a slight covering of snow if the TAF is correct and it usually is. Same for Heathrow, Luton & Gatwick with nothing at all for southend.
Not looking at all good I am afraid. Perhaps Thursday will yield something better.
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The Stansted airport TAF (EGSS) issued at 04:56 is saying that there is a low probability of snow for that area so its looking like I will be lucky to see anything at all. Booooooooo. The next TAF is due out any time now so hoping for a decent upgrade with fingers crossed.
Good luck to the rest of you.
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards
in Regional
Posted
Latest for Stansted temp = 4 & DP = 4METAR: EGSS 061950Z AUTO 04010KT 5000 -RA BKN007/// BKN013/// OVC026/// //////CB 04/04 Q1005