[Historic flood risk maps]

Thank you Jon.

[Historic flood risk maps]

Hi all,

Unusual request. Got an A level geography coursework project and ive decided to do it on flood risk over time. Anyone know good websites / charts showing flood risk (partically in southern england) say from 30 years ago even longer ago would be better? I know its a big ask, but if not is there any alternatives i could use to basically prove my hypothesis that the amount of floods are increasing over time. Cheers.

 

Regards, Ollie.

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020]

is a canadain warming good for cold in uk?

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020]

On 07/09/2021 at 22:25, Yarmy said:

Never mind MJO phases, ENSO forecasts or long range ensemble means: the Tesco delivery driver told me, apropos of nothing, that it was going to be the coldest winter in decades as he handed over my comestibles this evening.

So there’s that.

Well thats it then. -20c 850s over us for 3 months starting in december

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch 2020]

Does the MJO always move through its phases 1-8 ,numerically, in order, or could it go into phase 1, then into 8, back to 7, 6, 5, then switch again back to 6,7 etc? If you know what i mean 

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

8 minutes ago, Jason M said:

30 years ago that would have been newsworthy. Nowadays, its just another 'mild' Feb day.

I wonder how manys days in feb have reached 16/17c over the past 30 years. The only time i remember it being warm was feb 19 but im young so i can't remember alot before that. 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Huge shame about the models not taking into account ground temperatures/ 

latent heat. I wonder if any models will do in the future/ is there a method of predicting how long it takes to cool a material such as concreate to 0 degrees. So many factors would be needed to go into it - very complicated I’d presume. Just enough snow at box hill for sledge fun and good crispy days. The upper level warm front - unpredicted lead to a suppression of beefy showers (I think someone said that) for Monday/ Tuesday. Alright event 4/10. Would love a couple more Frontal snow events as they do deliver more widespread unlike an easterly -despite Kent normally being in the warm sector most of us in the West did far better.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

so is there no more snow for south/west london?

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

9 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

They are.  My DP is -6

how come low dps make andromeda visable? 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Any experts on here know why an upper warm front developed?

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

2 minutes ago, londonblizzard said:

Intensification off the coast in the last 20 minutes. HIghest proportion of green i've seen so far today. Could mean the snow making more of a way inland without breaking up so early. 

just need the wind  to stay same direction

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

8 minutes ago, fulham snow said:

Finally some snow in Epsom coming g down quite heavy and giving about 3cm,about time 

hopefully this streamer lasts all day...

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

2 minutes ago, seb said:

Imagine you’re boiling a pot of water and steam comes up. You then put a lid on and the steam can’t rise. Very simplified but same principle... we’ve got cold air at lower levels, if all went to plan the air in all levels above would get colder the higher you go and what we have at low levels could rise easily. As it stands we’ve got slightly warmer air at a certain height above, acting like the lid on the pot. This stops the rise and therefore the building up of the clouds.

Is it almost an inversion?

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

5 minutes ago, snowbob said:

Wow

love the sound of that

Me and you are not that far away but i reckon if it does set up you could have alot more

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

Looking at the GFS soundings I don't think we're going to get any "deep" convection initiating, The cold layer is rather shallow so cloud top heights likely to be fairly limited, so certainly no 2009/2010 streamer despite the lower level of cold. 

Having said that, I think we will see some moderate spells of snowfall embedded within a streamer which could still produce reasonable totals if it sticks over the same areas. 

Hi how do you see theres no deep convection is it due to wind speed ?

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

1 minute ago, fulham snow said:

Roll on spring,sun in your face 

Never know if tonight gets going we could be in luck, but bound to wake up and see nothing more than the 0.5cm we have had...

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Yep about right 

thanks is there anywhere i can learn about how they are formed? 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

2 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Clear Skies overhead briefly and wow some temp drop.

All the energy get strangled out of that front sinking south and precip decaying now.

All eyes to the Estuary for the next 6 hours, will it or wont it

is it around 2-3am for my area if a thames one sets up?

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

1 minute ago, fulham snow said:

Probably a few flakes like the last few days as evaporating very quickly

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

1 minute ago, Ian Docwra said:

Sadly for us, unless it's a particularly vigorous one, not much.  I'm a little further E than you, but unless a strong and concerted streamer sets up it will lose potency after a few tens of miles in most cases meaning relatively little down here.

What about epsom?

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

2 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Not looking good on latest radar for areas from Herne Bay down to Canterbury etc, as it's starting to shift more west now in development. West kent still looking ok! But to be honest, the precipitation rates could be better 

finally

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

1 minute ago, North Easterly Breeze said:

What is the magic of snow for everyone? 

Why do we pray for the radar to hover just above our little dot?

One of life’s little mysteries! 

1. Normally it shuts the school, 2 its the only "magical" thing that happens when you get older becuase its so bloody rare

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Preci has ticked up... streamer poss?

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

3 minutes ago, NYCSnow said:

Light snow in Surbiton but much bigger flakes than this morning. Is it just me or is the radar starting to perk up a bit?

Im waiting for a juicy thames steamer 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

12 minutes ago, jright35 said:

This would align with what I just posted about and the anticipated snow showing on the Dutch radar!

I beg this comes off