[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean is trending colder in the mid range as the position / orientation of the high changes...ps...I apologise if some don’t like my sense of humour, certainly no offence is intended, just light hearted banter!

You're fine Karl. Everyone knows your sense of humour 

[Model output discussion - Into 2021]

34 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Why are we seeing 'The wheels are off posts' 3 days before an SSW even starts? 

Sorry but there needs to be some frank reminders and realistic thinking in here.

If you are talking odds wise - the chances of having a 2 week cold spell that for example, would be notable enough to remember in 10 years without an SSW is probably 1000/1, WITH an SSW it's probably 100/1. 

Not sure how many 100/1 bankers I can recall happening in my life? You still need absolutely everything to go our way, an SSW can bring all forms of weather, it's arguably as likely to be bad for the UK as it is good. 

Frankly, the key thing here - the most important thing is that a handful of people forecasted an SSW against all seasonal models. Taps on the back and a brilliant forecast by those people. However, what actually happens after an SSW is the bit that nobody can predict, forecast, worry about etc. 

So how can the wheels be coming off something that's not happened or may not ever happen? 

I'm absolutely hoping as much as anyone that we get a repeating bitterly cold spell lasting from now until April, but from a genuine health aspect of this thread and the future of this thread - it might be better if this SSW is a complete failure in terms of bringing cold. Perhaps next year the entire thread could focus on current weather and not be diluted by 'Ignore tonight's charts, there's an SSW forecast for 8 weeks time mate, come back then for the boom charts'. 

As I mentioned I can completely understand why, but for me SSW's are the largest 'Jam tomorrow bait' that we can possibly have in this country. Not because people ramp, or forecast Armageddon as such - but because all conversation is so overtly positive that it's only natural expectations are built up.

SSW's are also long, drawn out, very fickle and quite often change at that last minute to become weaker/shorter lasting (as has happened this week). They also allow people to ignore the here and now and brush over crap current output, the likes that we had to put up with for the entire of December just because 'don't worry an SSW is happening in 6 weeks mate' - nonsense IMO. 

We need to stop worrying about something that is 100/1 to happen and focus on the fact that 2/3 days ago next week looked wet, now it looks white for a vast majority. Should next week be snowy then that would be virtually 2 weeks of frosty nights, cold days and snow opportunities for virtually the entire country. 

This WOULD represent a longer, colder and snowier spell for the UK than in most winters....it's just that nobody is taking any notice. 

As I mentioned before....the last few days and next 10 days will provide the coldest, longest and snowiest period of winter IMO - ignore it and you will miss winter.

But only talking about current weather defeats the object of the thread. There are other places to discuss current conditions. The model output thread is highly enjoyable and utterly frustrating at times but that is why we come back year after year.