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Griff

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    Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    It is looking to me like any coupling between the strat and trop vortexes will be very short lived.  The heights into scandi shown on many models in the T240 timeframe put paid to that, and the latest NAM plot tells it all really:

    A7B551FD-8453-49DF-91AE-EEF68939A66B.thumb.png.eaf66fa809ab12c4d06ed1c3cfa2374b.png

    The orange down at low levels of the atmosphere increasing with time, surely is the same signal, and well, for me, what goes on in the strat stays in the strat for the time being (actually a period of vortex intensification).  A word of caution, something must be driving the weather down here towards this blocked pattern which is disconnected from the strat vortex - and that something is the MJO - and we know from past experiences that MJO signals can go down the pan without warning.  But still looking very good for blocking, and all models seem to be showing this, in 10 days time or so.  Much less confident of snow, it looks quite dry, but get the cold in first, hey!

    And looking at the latest zonal chart this is most welcome

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    Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, LRD said:

    PS - be warned, the 'blocked' red signal won't necessarily mean snow. It could be a block at mid-latitudes, over us or over southern Scandi which would produce cold surface conditions but not really what most people on here are interested in

    It's higher up the preference scale for me than storm damage or constant rain

    • Like 10

    Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    Yep. I've been like a stuck record these last few days stressing how difficult it is for the models to decipher how the atlantic energy deals with that dense cold block to the north east. As the clock ticks down, it seems the models are having to constantly re-evaluate their calculations somewhat. So that's the ukmo and now the gfs. Yesterdays and today's charts for the same time this coming Thursday. Look how less ominous the pv looks to our north west on the latest run. 

    gfsnh-0-102.png

    gfsnh-0-126.png

    Even GFS on this run looks less organised and intense  

    gfsnh-0-174.png

    gfsnh-0-180.png

    • Like 3
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