[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

Would have thought sub -10 850's over a warm North Sea would generate some very heavy showers to come in from the East . Even this late would probably bring the Coldest night of the Winter many locations. 

[Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!]

Well the 00z continues with the theme of HP Spreading towards Greenland and bring down some Cold uppers . although it starts to collapse it right at the end ... but lt's a start and would tie in with the MJO forecasts ... 

 

    

 

Also Liking ECM at +216

 

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

2 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

I'm assuming this model is pretty much Cannon fodder? As that's one dramatic flip from SSW territory in yesterdays model run ensembles in January, to now well above average zonal winds?!

models can and do flip pretty quick , if there sniffing out something ....

[Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat]

Just had abouslutly crazy lightning show in |Darwen Lancashire (near blackburn) , and heaviest rain I ever seen , looked more like sleet but its a bit dark , but my question is nothing showing on netweather radar.. I know we are very high up here so maybe localised ... but lightning is intense, mrs is scared to death lol

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

2 hours ago, fromey said:

This doesn’t bode well!! 
 

It does with the NetWeather Winter forecast , think we gotta try make most of the cold shots we get this year...

[Model output discussion - late November]

12 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

No voting in Devon and Cornwall and the NE then?  

 

BFTP

Looking at the Precipitation chart for that Image, it just shows a very week front fizzling out , as it moves south , so wouldn't expect much Snow in that situation .... 

Temps for next 6 days away from the far South look to get no higher that 5.degrees , so I would class that as a Cold week coming up .