[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Snow in Taunton now

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Jesus the UKV is really ramping it up.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

I think it'll surprise a few people with the snow, still think M4 South will be a good area Tuesday and Wednesday. Beyond that Midlands North looks good

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Few flakes here, think we may finally see something when the main batch gets here.

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

You have a mild block of air trying to push in which is getting blocked by the cold dry air, sadly with the front being pushed back and forth it's causing chaos to the radar, the main area should be moving East which should have no problem.

 

 

 

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Gotta remember the front will move East South East, the northern extent personally I think will sit around Bridgwater Bay.

 

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

I actually see the PPN tonight more organised than the charts are showing, I think they are really struggling to get to grips with it. M5 South event which I reckon could surprise people including myself who didn't think this would happen at all. Get watching the radar is all I say..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Just now, bluearmy said:

It is a little and brings light snowfall across s coastal counties - but ec has the rump of that snow across n France 

True, but the fact its further North worries me as I've said there is nearly no chance of snow

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Dare I say it...the ECM is further North and brings snow into Southern England...

 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

You will notice that each run takes the precip that bit further south ……that’s a typical gfs trait ….

I agree, but the scenes if it was right 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

It's interesting to see the GFS continue to push the snow for the South on Tuesday and Wednesday, its completely on its own so I expect it too change soon. But what happens if it doesn't and its right with the front being further North, I reckon if it keeps pouring it out in the 24 hours maybe the others may change too it.

Interesting battle coming up, GFS vs every other chart

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

36 minutes ago, Gowon said:

The GFS looks wrong from very early on, it brings that low further north than all the other models?

I agree, as much as I would like it too be correct it's completely by itself. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

The snowfall risk tonight for the South West is a think turning into a 'see what comes up on the radar event' models flip back and forth and tbh the showers this morning wasn't overly well modelled for so anything could happen in my eyes. I'd expect snow around but where and how much is a guess really, could see a few inches or a dusting or nothing at all

 

 

 

 

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion]

Moderate snowfall in Taunton, everything has turned white with a nice little covering, still snowing and I reckon more to come for a bit.

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Scenes if this comes off on Tuesday...interestingly the arome sees the South West also seeing a bit of snow over the weekend from that pesky low..more charts to watch.

 

 

 

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Interesting from the arpege this morning picking up on the unstable cold air with a low pressure too, could be some more of these things pop up at the last minute.

 

 

 

[UK snow next week]

Have you checked the freezing levels for further South? Itll be over the hills and moors across the South, doubt much will get down at lower levels, always GFS charts with caution.