emax
-
Posts
572 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by emax
-
-
5 minutes ago, matty007 said:
Difficult to say as so many factors determine how quickly the virus spreads.
To achieve herd immunity, we would need 70% or so of the population to be infected by it. That is roughly 46 million. The virus is doubling every 4-5 days, so let's say we have 20,000 in the UK with it now. Next week we would have 40,000, the following week, 80,000. In a month we would have 320,000. Another month, 4.8 million. A month after that.......72 million. Theriotcally, the entire population could be infected in just three months....yeah. Highly unlikely for a virus to maintain that sort of transmission for a solid three months, however. But if you use this formula, in principle, we would have herd immunity after about 2 and a half months.
However, given that more drastic measures and social distancing would likely be adopted long before this point, it is almost impossible for it to spread this rapidly.
As a realistic estimate, herd immunity should be easily achievable in six months.
Thanks for the excellent explanation, and that is actually very interesting.
I did actually mean what time frame on the 100,000+ deaths. As in, if thats spread over a year, its still bad, but no where near as bad as a couple of months.
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, kold weather said:
I think the reason its getting so much attention is because its going to kill 10000+ people in our country alone probably in the space of 2-4 months.
I personally think its the unknown thats the problem. No one can really say how this is going to pan out, and that fuels the panic as much as anything. If Northern Italy hadn't of happened, we'd still be in the "it'll probably be fine" stage.
As for the deaths, again, I'm not downplaying things whatsoever, as we just dont know how bad things could get, but, 10,000 deaths over 2-4 months equals 2,500-5,000 per month. Over 51,000 people die in the UK every month on average. Now again, I'm definitely not downplaying it, but suddenly it doesn't seem quite as scary. If we sustained 5,000 extra deaths per month, for many months, then obviously that would be a catastrophe, but thats just pure guessing. As I say, we literally just dont know how this is going to pan out (not on this forum anyway).
Since the first case in January, there's been 21 deaths up to this point. Since that time, an average of 60,000 people have died in the UK. Clearly deaths from this are going to still skyrocket, but it always appears worse when you see specific updates day by day.
-
9 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:
But here we are. In a situation where the best case scenario to achieve herd immunity results in at least 100,000 deaths.
I'm not downplaying, but over what time frame? Thats the key to all this
-
1
-
-
50 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:
In fact, there have been cases where patients have tested positive for influenza, but later had different tests done that showed they also had coronavirus. Some people think that there are a significant number of cases where people developed pneumonia due to COVID-19 but were only tested for influenza, and so that was considered the cause of death.
Basically, it's a really messed up and complex situation. But there's very little to suggest widespread cases outside of China before the last 2 months, and much less that it could even have been detected.Just been reading this, which backs up your comments. Its a long read, but basically an example of a patient in China who developed ARDS, but repeatedly tested negative for COVID. Apparently the doctor's persistence in testing due to the symptoms and travel history, lead to a final positive test of COVID. They suggest that (certainly in the early days at least) COVID is so similar to Influenza A that it could be mistaken for normal flu.
Early Release - Co-infection with SARS-CoV-2 and Influenza A Virus in Patient with Pneumonia, China - Volume 26, Number 6—June 2020 - Emerging Infectious Diseases journal - CDC
WWWNC.CDC.GOVDetection of SARS-CoV-2 can be difficult and patients can be co-infected with influenza A virus and COVID-19.Then when you look at PHE weekly statement (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/870504/PHE_Influenza_Surveillance_graphs_2019_2020_week_10.pdf) , there was definitely a spike before and around Christmas for Influenza, but of course, that is meaningless really, particularly compared to previous years. It does at least prove that there definitely was a spike over Christmas, but nothing to say its in any way related to COVID 19, unless you take into account different strains/minor mutations/or whatever. Again, still just total conjecture!
-
1
-
-
48 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
It really is everywhere ! One wonders just how many cases are really out there .
Bizarre how its always the wives lol, makes you wonder what they've been doing
-
2
-
-
1 minute ago, Snowy L said:
This is the sort of thing that will hopefully save at least some lives, and hopefully wont take too long to be used widely.
Obviously you cant predict the future, and part of it is just hoping for the best, but, the medical and scientific world is completely different than it was in the early 1900's. The massive advances in these fields hopefully lends itself to a much greater chance of some obscure cure or care package. Just think of the thousands of labs and facilities around the world currently working to solve this, whether it be in the form of a longer term vaccine, or short term critical care treatment, our chances are much higher now than they ever have been. (thats my optimistic view at least)
Just an aside, but I still dont think there is anything the world could of done to prepare for anything like this, other than the obvious elephant in the room of China. The modern world of interconnected travel around the globe has obviously caused the rapid spread, but the same technological advancements will hopefully fix it eventually.
-
2
-
-
33 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:
I just want to add to my post.
Anecdotal alert:
When my dad was admitted to hospital during his last days, nearly 2 years ago, he was immediately diagnosed with suspected pneumonia. When he was transferred to a ward, after about 12 hours in an A&E bed, the main doctor on the ward told us she would test him for influenza, because a number of his symptoms were clear signs of flu.
Later on the following day she confirmed he had influenza in his body. She was 99.9% sure his pneumonia was influenza-induced. She also told us it is routine testing to look for causes of pneumonia.
So, any patients admitted to hospital during the winter with pneumonia, for example, would have had further tests done to determine why the pneumonia; many would've been elderly. Those tests would've detected COVID-19, if present.
There have been no reports of huge spike in deaths during the Winter months. If COVID-19 had been active it would've showed up and reported.
So, there is no way these coughs, talked about on SM, that happened in November, December or even January would've been COVID-19, otherwise it would've spread like wildfire much much earlier than now, and the elderly would've been dying in droves.
On this point though, are we sure they could of picked up COVID back in Dec/Jan/ early Feb? Why increase testing to hospitals patients now, if they routinely would of picked it up anyway?
My limited understanding (which may be wrong, so I'm happy to be corrected) is that dont they generally test for stuff they know about, but dont always pick up everything, particularly if its new? (ie blood tests for example are normally aimed at specific tests, rather than taking one sample and testing for every possible blood related problem etc)
Again, my stance on this is that its a minor minor chance, and just speculation, but I feel its something that cannot be completely ruled out.
-
1
-
-
5 minutes ago, Ryukai said:
What if that was the 'first (and less deadly) wave' and this current version is the mutated '2nd wave' though...
That had crossed my mind too, as there does appear to be some differences in strains, but of course, its all just complete speculation.
Would be nice if perhaps it was, and perhaps those who had it previously might have a better time on the second round. What would be interesting, is to find out if those that have recovered in the UK and USA had a similar flu around Christmas. Again, its all just speculation or even wishful thinking trying to find a reason why we might be ok, but the reality is, only time will tell.
-
1
-
-
7 minutes ago, Mark Bayley said:
All I would say on that, is that I'm almost 99.9% certain the ICU rate was 10-20% in China (mostly Wuhan), so I think that headline is being twisted slightly
-
Just now, Azazel said:
Science nerds would need to develop a serology test to look for antibodies.
i would love to take one as I would love to know. The thing I had at Christmas matched every single coronavirus checkbox.
This is still in the back of my mind. Literally everywhere someone has had either a mild or sever flu/cold type over christmas and onwards.
Now, this is probably still very common obviously, and very unlikely to actually be this virus, however, I still find it odd that another new milder virus was doing the rounds at exactly the same time, and affecting so many people. Yes, obviously new strains or variations or whatever come along every year, but the time frame just seems so exacting, and with so many people, its definitely at least a 1% possibility of being the same thing. Add into the fact that there's numerous variations/strains/whatever you call it of COVID, and the data suggests that there's a trace of it thats been tracked back to the UK around Christmas time. Plus, as far as I can make out, Heathrow and Gatwick appear to make up 50% of the 4 direct flights from Wuhan to Europe, so it is surprising we havent had more cases before hand.
This is the website that was linked here yesterday by someone regarding the strains etc:
auspice
NEXTSTRAIN.ORGHow accurate that website is, I have no idea, but it shows England as having traces of this way before most other countries outside China. Is this something maybe our experts have data on? Could this all just be b*****x and completely unrelated? Yes of course, but its an interesting thought, and certainly something to look into more in the future (depending on how things go).
-
2
-
-
-
3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
A lighter topic (or maybe not!)
Anyone having sport withdrawal symptoms today?
100%, been waiting for Melbourne F1 for weeks, and now gotta wait till at least June probably, for any race
-
2
-
-
12 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:
Germany began banning gatherings of 1000 or more 4 days ago, when they were on 1295 cases.
In Germany, which has 1,295 coronavirus patients and where two people have died, Berlin authorities announced the closure of all theatres, concert halls and opera houses until at least the end of the Easter holidays. The capital also became the seventh of Germany’s 16 states to ban gatherings of 1,000 people or more."Began" is the crucial word there. As far as I can see, Germany overall has not actually banned gatherings of more than 1000, but states have started to. Plus they have still not closed schools across the entire country either, so I think it's fair to say they are taking a "similar" approach, at the moment at least, to the UK.
-
1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:
Is this really legit? If it is, why isn't it being shared widely?
There's all manner of things that "may" help. The main one obviously washing hands. But gargling antibac mouthwash or salt water, washing your face and nostrils etc, taking vitamin d, and even breathing techniques to expand the lungs. These "could" all help to a degree depending on your health, but there's no outright proof that they definitely will, they're just little things that may take the edge off. If its your time, its your time sometimes!
Can you imagine if someone official said gargle with salt water or mouthwash, at this rate there'd be nothing left on the shelves lol.
-
1
-
-
2 minutes ago, Snipper said:
Plus turn round three times and pray like hell
Those who swear go to hell, so you're saying swearing helps?
-
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:
The figures from earlier in the week are now filtering through with a lag time of around 3 to 4 days from testing to getting the result
Are we certain its still 3 to 4 days lag? I'd seen that the results speed had sped up a lot too, but cant remember where, so I may be wrong
-
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:
That's why I wondered whether any medication that effectively slows your metabolism down, lowers heart rate and blood pressure etc, would be useful in such an instance.
I would have thought that if such a thing exists, it would or is being used in those cases requiring it.
-
Regarding the apparent u turn on mass gatherings. Whatever the reason or decision making process, I think the way its happened is probably the preferable way.
They got to see the feeling of the nation, and seeing as so many people were calling for events to be cancelled etc, it's almost like people will be relieved and happy for events to be cancelled. Whereas in a parallel universe, you can bet anything that people would complain that their event has been cancelled, and there's no need etc.
-
3
-
-
3 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:
And retreat to your remote chateau within the foothills of the Pyrenees lol.
This did make me chuckle. Not for a personal or offensive dig or anything, just had an image of there being people all round the world in their remote mansions and chateau's, stocked up to the gunnels hoping to ride it out. Every time a servant coughs, they shoot them and hire another one.
-
2
-
-
1 minute ago, abruzzi spur said:
Well what I posted wasn't for any particular individual. It was in response to a sense I had that some here are very anxious and I thought that the link I provided might be helpful. Glad you're ticket boo though.
Jeez, I wasnt belittling it, I was just putting my point of view across.
-
1
-
-
Just now, abruzzi spur said:
Please folks think about taking a break. I've just popped back in and it must be exhausting for the people on here reading and posting so often. The constant stress generated will make you less able to cope with the challenges ahead.
I've got a bad cough and fever, so nothing better to do................na not really, just my bad humour.
But for me personally, I'm not worried or stressed at all. Not because I think I'm immune, but because whatever will happen, will happen. We can all take reasonable personal measures to protect ourselves, but if its mine or my parents time, then so be it, its just a fact of life. If there's nothing more I can do to protect myself, then why ruin my life worrying. I'm more concerned about the future worldwide economic impacts, but thats chapter 2, we're still in chapter 1 for now.
I'm here more just for the wide spread of info as I find it interesting. Yes quite a lot of it is hearsay or inaccurate sometimes, but its still, to me any way, interesting to get a load of info on the worldwide situation, as you'd never get that in the news. The news may have one or two good snippets, and the rest is either political point scoring, or just general bashing to get views. Plus this forum, despite being up and down at times, is fairly higher up the list for reliable info than Facebook or Twitter.
-
6
-
-
Just now, DAVID SNOW said:
No, shouting achieves nothing, you should know this.
OH YES IT DOES!
-
2
-
-
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:
No which is a bizarre decision . They should have delayed them .
Exactly. I think my overall point is that every nation's government will and have made bad decisions, depending on each persons point of view, its inevitable.
-
1
-
-
27 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Im led to believe there is a young chap mid 30s on ICU at the Royal Oldham hospital after testing positive.
He has no underlying health issues.
Source or any info? Was he there anyway, or solely there because of breathing problems due to COVID?
COVID-19 Pandemic
in Space, Science & nature
Posted
I cant remember now, so I might be wrong, but wasnt the initial 3% CFR (Wuhan era) during the Wuhan crisis, so that 3% CFR does at least partially take into account a struggling health system?