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Eagle Eye

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Everything posted by Eagle Eye

  1. Eagle Eye
    WeatherArc Shear is more significant than most models showing and saturation even better for what you'd typically see. This has that feel that it'll be nothing or very significant.
  2. Eagle Eye
    Taking a look at yesterday versus today. Substantial low-level shear, but given the weak energy at the surface, it appears that the very low LCL's significantly helped with tornadic production. Something to keep an eye on for events that feel like they might not be so big just because of the other signals. Comparing that to today's risk, significantly more shearing and fairly similar CAPE, along with a more typical saturation profile. However, the LCL's vary a lot, theoretically this has higher end potential, but I suspect there will be less significant tornadoes, but there's more favouring long track potential.
  3. Eagle Eye
    More to add to the incredible photos.
  4. Eagle Eye
    We might have so many classic images from last night.
  5. Eagle Eye
    Convective Outlook️ During Saturday Morning, an occluded front will slowly lose its strength fizzling out over Southern England. Late morning, early afternoon, a front from France will advect north towards the UK. Ahead of this front across S/SW England a convergence line should develop allowing showers to develop. Alongside with this convergence line, comes forcing which will force the showers to develop & grow in height with shallow CAPE being present. This could allow a few lightning strikes from these showers, however confidence remains relatively low once again. During the afternoon, showers should have fully developed more focussed towards SW England as the front starts clipping south England. As the front arrives, there is also a chance of a few lightning strikes on the East rear off this front, but once again confidence remains relatively low.
  6. Eagle Eye
    What looked to me like ridiculously low LCL's and high low-level shear counteractdd fairly weak surface energy and not brilliant saturated profiles for already one of the biggest outbreaks in the last few years and probably the one with the most significant tornadoes in recent memory. Today has the potential to do the same but that morning convection might save us from that. We shall see. The Tall Weatherman Oklahoma City unfortunately in the middle of the moderate risk.
  7. Eagle Eye
    This outbreak isn't stopping for anyone
  8. Eagle Eye
  9. Eagle Eye
    Kansas is also having tornadoes along with Nebraska and the Texas tornadoes. A lot going on at the moment.
  10. Eagle Eye
    Reminds me of Soso-Bassfield tornado
  11. Eagle Eye
    Devestating damage
  12. Eagle Eye
  13. Eagle Eye
    This event refuses to give up unfortunately This event refuses to give up unfortunately
  14. Eagle Eye
    Everything is happening very quickly at the moment
  15. Eagle Eye
    Aaron Jayjacks has got it Someone has likely got a classic shot of this if this one doesn't become a classic
  16. Eagle Eye
    Cannot believe it
  17. Eagle Eye
    Texas also happened and still potentially more to come from there.
  18. Eagle Eye
    This almost definetely needs an upgrade to a moderate risk, it's only just the afternoon there really.
  19. Eagle Eye
    So that tornado happened
  20. Eagle Eye
  21. Eagle Eye
    Colorado isn't actually a bad place to chase, it seems to rarely fail, Ijust that it doesn't typically seem to have high end events but if you want some good dusty pictures like old tornado pictures, go there.
  22. Eagle Eye
    Convective Outlook️ Falling mid-level GPH and surface pressure overnight with some cooling of the uppers with lower level temperatures staying more level should allow for the western edge of a Theta-E ejection to force a few showers overnight on Friday. Surface bands of vorticity should eject westward from northern France from a frontal system into a strong low-level lapse-rate area forcing potentially 100 J/KG Of 3CAPE but with weak deep-layer shear and high saturation the lightning risk is rather low and limited to the southwest and central southern coast.
  23. Eagle Eye
    Some angry but unthreatening skies yesterday.
  24. Eagle Eye
    Saturday with a positively tilted trough ejecting across the southern parts of the great plains with a full on dryline and with 65°F+ dewpoint. Very much a potentially classic setup here, but there's still a lot that could go wrong. That notch in Northern Kansas would probably be the safest bet, but you'd typically chase Oklahoma on a plains day given previous events, even one last year when the plains wasn't that active if I remember correctly. Northern Kansas Oklahoma
  25. Eagle Eye
    What I think was the north sea storm approaching but just skirting past Kent.
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