[Competition: How hot is it going to be?]

Brize Norton, Oxfordshire, Monday 18th, 40.3 C.

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

On the matter of the anomaly charts: I’m fairly new to all this but always am fascinated by the posts on the anomaly charts by the likes of John Holmes, it seemed like voodoo to start with.

But genuine question…… surely the anomaly charts are not capable of picking up the nuances such as we had a few days ago, i.e. 40 degrees in northern France and 12 degrees literally 100 miles away??

I understand that the geography of Northern Europe and the UK in particular presents macro scale weather anomalies, but the charts we are looking at NOAA etc don’t really pick them up, or do they??

I suppose that what I’m trying to ask is: can the anomaly forecasts be broadly speaking correct, but the on the day actual weather in any given spot in the UK absolutely the opposite?

Looking back on the last couple of sentences, I reckon I can answer the question myself:      
 

yes, absolutely, its the weather…..

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

29 minutes ago, SteveB said:

What?

The post referred to the probability of snow lying for a while, I merely replied.....

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

7 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Here’s a nice thought..some of the snow that has fallen or falls in the next few days could still be there is 10 days time ! Not often you can say that in most parts of the UK! 

I really hope so, otherwise some folks will be under water....

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

Afternoon all. Exciting times ahead, I’ve certainly spent more time reading this thread than reading anything else for the last couple of days.

The models in general seem to not yet be in any sort of agreement as to a when or quite how this cold period may come to an end. 

When the thaw of however much lying snow there is (which is certainly very much up in the air at the moment, in more ways than one), I just hope it’s a slow thaw. Otherwise we could be building snowmen one day and arks the next. I remember from childhood in the 80’s some of the worst floods being a result of snow melt.

Also, snow, which as others have pointed out would disrupt vaccination efforts, would otherwise have nowhere near as much damaging effects on people’s lives as catastrophic flooding......

What do you all think as to the character of the eventual warm up? I guess that if an Atlantic low smashes the block, it could mean temperatures well into high single figures in literally a couple of hours, but if the cold resists, in could be around zero for a while, allowing for a slow melt.....

[Flood Watch]

3 hours ago, matty40s said:

There is also this one, which includes private level gauges, and is quite often more up to date than the. Gov one.

/Content/images/gaugemap-facebook-share-image.jpg

Shoothill GaugeMap

WWW.GAUGEMAP.CO.UK

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GaugeMap is an award winning interactive map with the latest river level, flow and groundwater data from Environment Agency stations in Britain & Ireland.

 

Shoothill used to be the one I used religiously (I live in an old water mill).

But recently it has become very unreliable, as soon as the levels begin to rise their updates slow down and can be as far as six to eight hours behind, which is effectively useless. 

The one on the Gov site is far better. It uses exactly the same info from the same river level stations, the only difference being that the Gov figures are rounded to the nearest cm but Shoothill to the mm.

 

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

3 hours ago, Malcolm Edwards said:

That interesting regarding gulls moving inland. I too have noticed some rare birds appearing here in marazion. Sign of things to come? 

There was a Little Egret in the garden here two days ago. Never seen one this far inland before. 
 

It was easy to spot being pure white, I just hope that next time I see it I don’t, if you know what I mean

[Model Output Discussion - Into the new year]

1 minute ago, syed2878 said:

A genuine question to you knowledgeable folks out there The model output at the moment is fantastic to say the least however my question is with the output we are seeing why is the UK but not forecasting that in their extended outlook are they saying something that we are not with all the data they have at their disposal I would have thought they would of picked all this up yet in their extended that are going with no significant cold.

I would suggest that it’s because to them “significant cold” would be sub zero at the surface for several days on end.

None of the models are really showing that YET.

[Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas]

I’ve been following this forum for a couple of years with great interest but have never felt brave enough to comment, mainly because I don’t really have a scoob about what the charts are telling me beyond isobars and temperatures.

Two things have prompted me to comment now:

firstly, the brilliant post by Snowking earlier, which gave me a Eureka moment about why you all refer to ‘lower heights’, which always seemed a bit counter intuitive...

and secondly, the return of Knocker. I always looked forward to his posts in the short term model thread, and I really like his incredibly dry way of pointing out what an ar** someone can be making of themselves.

Apologies for not posting any charts, I promise to do better next time.

All the best....